DILLON ON FILM

Oscar Predictions 2024

Will this be one of the rare years I endorse the Academy Award winners?

NOTE: For my thoughts in more depth on any given film, just click the title and the link will take you back to my original review at Simon Dillon Cinema.

Some cineastes look down their noses at the Oscars. I aspire to be that snooty, but the truth is that whilst I can summon suitable quantities of disdain for other awards ceremonies, I cannot help but care about the Oscars. I know I shouldn’t. After all, they are just as political and narcissistic as any other awards you care to mention. But for some absurd reason, a deep part of me buried under a Mount Everest of cynicism actually wants the best film, actor, screenplay, and so forth of that year to be properly recognised and given the prestige of an Oscar win.

Alas, I seldom agree with who wins. This article from my archives details how I agree with less than one-third of the Best Picture wins down the decades. Nonetheless, every year, I hope to be pleasantly surprised.

At the same time, on the rare years I have little to complain about, I feel strangely deflated. Ironically, there’s something quite entertaining and cathartic about expressing outrage over an undeserving winner who nabbed the top prize for idiotic reasons such as corrupt campaigning, it-was-their-turn sympathy votes, tokenistic virtue-signalling, or any other excuse. What can I say? I’m a contradictory and difficult person.

Still, I have a sneaking suspicion that unless there is a major upset, I’ll agree with (or at least approve of) most winners this year. If that happens, my Oscars report following the ceremony on the 10th of March will be bereft of my usual venom, and therefore less entertaining. If that is the case, I apologise in advance. In the meantime, here are my thoughts on the nominees in the main categories, including what I think will win versus what should.

Best Actress

Emma Stone will almost certainly win for Poor Things, as hers is the kind of demonstrative, “committed” performance much beloved by the Academy and critics. Although I love Emma Stone, I’d prefer to see Lily Gladstone triumph for Killers of the Flower Moon. But on reflection, I want Sandra Hüller to win even more for her extraordinary turn in Anatomy of a Fall. It’s a subtle, nuanced, sublimely ambiguous performance that deftly turns on a tiny facial gesture, or indeed a linguistic shift, continually wrong-footing the audience. Nice to see Carey Mulligan nominated here too (for Maestro).

Best Supporting Actress

I suspect this will go to Da’Vine Joy Randolph for her brilliant role in The Holdovers, and she would be my preferred choice. There’s also an outside chance Emily Blunt could clinch this for her turn in Oppenheimer, and I wouldn’t entirely discount America Fererra’s Barbie performance either. That said, I don’t expect lots of big wins for Barbie on the night (I like Barbie, but don’t think it deserves to win in any of the major categories).

Best Actor

I’ve wanted Cillian Murphy to win Best Actor ever since I first saw Oppenheimer, but I suspect Paul Giamatti will nab this for his sterling turn in The Holdovers. In all fairness, Giamatti is very good, and such an outcome won’t fill me with the kind of despair that I felt when Tom Hanks beat Anthony Hopkins in 1994 (his phenomenal performance in The Remains of the Day is eminently superior to Hanks’s Oscar-bait turn in Philadelphia), but still, Murphy would be my choice. That said, American Fiction isn’t out in the UK until the beginning of February, so there is a chance I may change my mind when I see Jeffrey Wright’s lead performance in that film (I’m a huge fan of Wright).

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Downey Jr should win this for his arresting turn in Oppenheimer, and he would be my preferred choice. That said, there are some strong nominees that could steal his thunder on the big night. Mark Ruffalo, for instance, although his role in Poor Things could be seen as too cartoonish by some. Robert De Niro is another strong contender for his excellent performance in Killers of the Flower Moon, and whilst I hope he doesn’t win, Ryan Gosling may just find he has “kenough” votes to surprise everyone.

Best Original Screenplay

Justine Triet and Arthur Harari would get my vote for Anatomy of a Fall, but I suspect David Hemingson will win for The Holdovers. In fairness, the latter is another excellent choice, so I’m unlikely to weep into my beer if my prediction proves correct. That said, Celine Song may just snatch the prize from under the noses of both, for Past Lives. This film has gleaned much acclaim, but for all its excellence, I confess I liked rather than loved it, finding myself in the minority. Perhaps I’ll think differently when I rewatch it.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach’s nomination for Barbie feels a little absurd here; a technicality, apparently, but to my mind it belongs in the Original Screenplay category. Anyway, this ought to go to Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer. I doubt there will be an upset from anywhere else, with the possible exception of Jonathan Glazer’s superb take on Martin Amis’s novel The Zone of Interest.

Best Director

As far as I’m concerned, Christopher Nolan ought to have won Best Director at least three times in the past; for Batman Begins (2005), Inception (2010), and Dunkirk (2017), respectively. Will this be his year? It had damn well better be. The direction in Oppenheimer is magnificent. In glorious IMAX, Nolan delivers a tour-de-force of visual magnificence, both as epic and miniature. He delves into a vast narrative with personal intimacy, via brilliant use of close-ups, providing a claustrophobic immersion into the mind and consciousness of its subject. Will he win? Yes, I think he will. If any of the other nominees perform an upset, I’ll be astonished. Some of these nominees are strong contenders (especially Martin Scorsese), but I don’t think they stand a chance against the might of Nolan this time.

Best Picture

Everything I said above about Christopher Nolan applies doubly to this category. In my not remotely humble opinion, Oppenheimer is, by a significant distance, the best film of last year. The usual Nolan-esque narrative jiggery pokery serves the film’s subject matter brilliantly, providing thematic density, expounding on both sides of the nuclear debate in a way that both illuminates history and provides urgent contemporary relevance. Yet the film doesn’t spoon-feed the viewer a polemic. Rather, it demands that they make their own reckoning with the atomic age. Many of the other nominees are strong films (especially Killers of the Flower Moon, The Zone of Interest, Anatomy of a Fall, and The Holdovers) but denying Nolan his triumph would be a stain on the reputation of every Oscar voter claiming to care about the art of cinema.

Snubs

Inevitably, there were significant snubs among the nominations. My particular axe-grind this year is the total absence of Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. This lovely adaptation of Judy Blume’s classic is studded with sublime performances and has wit and heart to spare. I’d have nominated Abby Ryder Forston in the Best Actress category, and Kathy Bates or Rachel McAdams in the Best Supporting Actress category, with a Best Director nomination for Kelly Fremon Craig.

I’m also disappointed at the lack of recognition for Saltburn; a film that I think has been both misunderstood (a gothic dark satirical comedy rather than a serious examination of class inequality) and underrated. I’d liked to have seen Barry Keoghan nominated, at the very least. Nothing for Priscilla either, which is irksome. I’d have found space for Sophia Coppola in the Best Director nominations. Also, nothing for Blackberry, and whilst May December snagged a screenplay nomination, I’m surprised Julianne Moore didn’t wind up on the Best Actress shortlist. Finally, genre snobbery reigns supreme as usual, since neither Godzilla Minus One nor Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse scored in any of the main categories. Oh, well. The latter should win Best Visual Effects and the former Best Animated Feature. Speaking of which, I’m pleased Disney’s deeply mediocre Wish has been excluded from that category.

How to Have Sex is another film absent, but I understand it isn’t eligible this year, as it hasn’t had a US release yet. I’m also surpised at the lack of Best Actor nomination for Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon considering the shouts for Robert De Niro and Lily Gladstone. Finally, I lament the no-show for the delightful Wonka (more snobbery), which deserved to have at least one of its songs nominated.

I’ll pass over my remaining nomination irritations in silence, for now. More after the ceremony on the 10th of March. Will I stay up and watch live? Of course not. I’m in the UK, so the timezone difference means I have better things to do, like sleeping. However, rest assured, my full thoughts on the winners will follow once I wake up.

What are your thoughts on this year’s Oscar nominations? Who do you think was snubbed that should have been recognised? Let me know in the comments.

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