The 96th Academy Awards: Who Should Win (Part I)
On March 10, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will hold the 96th Academy Awards and reveal their selections for the best in film from the past year. In this article, I rank the contenders in each of the four acting races while delving into my take on the relative merit of the contenders.
To find out who I think should win in the other major categories — including Best Picture —click here to check out Part Two of this article
To find out who I think will win in all 23 categories, click here for my article previewing the ceremony.
Although I unabashedly adore the glitzy ceremony, behind-the-scenes drama, near-century of statistics and milestones, and flat-out fun of predicting the eventual winners, I care about the Oscars each year primarily because I love movies. I love watching movies, reflecting on movies, and debating the merits of movies. I believe that the art of filmmaking has shaped my life — and our culture — in profound ways.
Each year I make sure to see each film nominated in the “top eight” categories (Best Picture, Best Director, the four acting categories, and the two screenplay categories), along with as many of the others as I can squeeze in. Below, I rank the five nominees in each acting category from weakest to strongest based on my evaluation of the quality of the respective performances.
Click here to read my reactions to this year’s Oscar nominations
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
5.) Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (3 prior nominations — Supporting Actor for The Kids Are All Right, Foxcatcher, and Spotlight). I was thoroughly entertained by Ruffalo’s turn as the smarmy and oversexed solicitor Duncan Wedderburn. The already-great film reaches dizzying new heights when he enters the narrative and takes Emma Stone’s Bella Baxter on a journey outside her world of confinement into one of liberation and excitement. Nevertheless, I found his shtick to be distractingly campy at times, particularly when the plot requires him to shift from sleazy rake to devastated man-child. I would have much preferred his slot went to his co-star Willem Dafoe, another distinguished actor whose performance I found more interesting and compelling, or Charles Melton, whose brilliant work in May December is one of Oscars most atrocious omissions in recent memory. Fun Fact: With his 4th nomination in the category, Ruffalo joins 7 other actors in a tie for most nominations ever in the category. The other actors with 4 Best Supporting Actor nominations are Walter Brennan, Jeff Bridges, Robert Duvall, Arthur Kennedy, Jack Nicholson, Al Pacino, and Claude Rains.
4.) Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (1st nomination). As his exceptional list of acting credits (mostly in acclaimed television series like This Is Us, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, and The People v. O.J. Simpson) proves, Brown is one of our most consistently impressive and versatile actors. I was delighted to see the Academy take notice of his work as Cliff Ellison, the recently divorced and newly “out of the closet” brother of American Fiction’s protagonist Monk Ellison (Jeffrey Wright). He injects the film with a ferocious comic energy when he first appears and he gets some nice character development toward the end of the film. If only the screenplay gave him a bit more to do, I would rank him higher on the list.
3.) Robert DeNiro, Killers of the Flower Moon (7 prior nominations — Supporting Actor for The Godfather Part II and Silver Linings Playbook and Actor for Taxi Driver, The Deer Hunter, Raging Bull, Awakenings, and Cape Fear; he won for The Godfather Part II and Raging Bull). DeNiro is a film legend of the highest order, who has been turning in consistently memorable performances for the past half century. Most of these performances have been big and loud, whether he was undergoing a physical transformation for Raging Bull, terrifying audiences in Taxi Driver and Cape Fear, learning Italian to play a young Vito Corleone in The Godfather Part II, or transforming his intimidating dramatic persona into an over-the-top comic one in Analyze This or Meet the Parents. But DeNiro does much of his best work in smaller, quieter roles. This is certainly the case in Martin Scorcese’s latest film, in which he serves as the film’s primary antagonist whose profound bigotry and evil are especially gutting given his appearance as a mild-mannered community leader who is a tireless advocate for the indigenous people of his community. DeNiro wisely realized that this was a role that would be all the more terrifying if subtly underplayed. Fun Fact: DeNiro’s nomination this year occurred 49 years after his 1st nomination for The Godfather Part II. He now beats Katharine Hepburn’s record of longest span between first and last/most recent Oscar nomination by 1 year (she spanned 48 years, from 1932’s Morning Glory to 1980’s On Golden Pond).
2.) Ryan Gosling, Barbie (2 prior nominations — Actor for Half Nelson and La La Land). Of the nearly 100 performances nominated this century, I could only find 6 instances of full-fledged comic performances being nominated for Oscars— Johnny Depp for Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, Renee Zellweger for Bridget Jones’s Diary, Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder, Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids, Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, and now Ryan Gosling for Barbie. I mention this to underscore what an incredible achievement his nomination here is. Gosling was a natural for the role of Barbie’s studly male counterpart Ken given his gorgeous looks and perfect body. But few expected how far he would be willing to lean into the “himbo” persona and what comic depths he would mine as he did. Gosling’s performance is one of those that you can’t help but suspect led the filmmakers to scramble to tweak the film to expand his presence once they saw how extraordinary it was.
1.) Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (2 prior nominations — Actor for Chaplin and Supporting Actor for Tropic Thunder). As good as Gosling is and as due as he is for a win, I have a slight preference for Downey Jr. After a promising career in the ’80s and ’90s was torpedoed by drug use and legal troubles, he mounted an impressive commercial comeback with his role as Tony Stark (aka Iron Man) in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. He has spent so long in the blockbuster phase of his acting career that it has made most of us to forget what a talented dramatic actor he truly is. His performance as Lewis Strauss in Oppenheimer somehow manages to emerge as the clear standout among the vast and impressive supporting cast that surrounds Cillian Murphy’s J. Robert Oppenheimer. He is a pressure cooker of thinly suppressed rage throughout much of the film and is both captivating and unnerving to watch. It was arguably a risk to devote so much of the film’s narrative focus to Strauss’s political showdown with Oppenheimer, but Downey Jr.’s performance is so good that it makes it impossible to imagine the film without it.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
5.) Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (1st nomination). Emily Blunt is the top on my list of actors that make me ask, “How is it possible they haven’t been nominated for an Oscar before?” Her superb work in films like The Devil Wears Prada, The Young Victoria, Into the Woods, Sicario, The Girl on the Train, A Quiet Place, and Mary Poppins Returns have garnered her BAFTA, Golden Globe, and Screen Actors Guild Award nominations, yet somehow an Oscar nomination has eluded her until now. She is so overdue that it pains me to rank her last. It especially pains me because she is actually superb and memorable as Oppenheimer’s long-suffering wife Kitty. Her scenes of postpartum depression and her silent heartbreak as she watches her husband get stripped of his dignity during the security hearings are full of skillful acting. I rank her last because the material she has to work with just isn’t as substantive as the other four nominated actresses and because I actually think many actresses could have done equally good work with Kitty. Despite this, I am exceedingly confidant that Blunt will be back at the Oscars very soon with a performance that ranks higher on my list.
4.) America Ferrera, Barbie (1st nomination). Some rolled their eyes at Ferrera’s nomination as Gloria, the administrative assistant whose emotional crisis ruptures the harmony that exists between “Barbie World” and the “real world.” But a recent rewatch of the movie reminded me not only how good her performance is but also how essential her performance is for the film’s success. Without the authentic emotion conveyed by her character (most famously evoked by her instantly iconic speech about the ludicrous expectations society places on women), Gerwig’s ambitious pivoting of the film from an elaborate satire into a deeply moving feminist rallying cry would not have worked. I, for one, applaud Ferrera’s nomination and think it is well-deserved.
3.) Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (1st nomination). Prior to seeing the Blitz Bazuwale’s reimagining of The Color Purple, I read Alice Walker’s classic novel and rewatched Steven Spielberg’s 1985 film adaptation (which famously went 0-for-11 at the Oscars). I found that the 2023 film paled in comparison to both not because of flawed filmmaking or weak acting, but from a lack of justification. I did not find that the musical numbers were interesting, meaningful, or memorable enough to justify the film’s overhaul into a musical and felt that the narrative and characterization stuck so closely to Spielberg’s film that the scenes in between musical numbers felt a bit like a shot-by-shot remake. I mention this because it was hard for me to judge Brooks’s performance as Sofia on its own and not compare it to Oprah Winfrey’s iconic, Oscar-nominated turn in the same role. Brooks matched her work there — and perhaps even exceeded her when you take her showstopping musical number into account — but for me it lacked the “wow” factor because it felt so familiar. (This is in pointed contrast to Ariana DeBose’s turn in Spielberg’s remake of West Side Story, which I felt added a genuinely fresh twist on Rita Moreno’s Oscar-winning turn as Anita.) Brooks is exceptional and some will take issue with my reasoning here, but I simply struggled to get more excited about her performance. Fun Fact: The role of Sofia joins a small group of characters who have yielded Oscar nominations for multiple actors. Other examples include the aforementioned Anita from West Side Story, the Joker (which brought both Heath Ledger and Joaquin Phoenix wins), and Vito Corleone (which brought both Marlon Brando and Robert DeNiro wins).
2.) Jodie Foster, Nyad (4 prior nominations — Best Supporting Actress for Taxi Driver and Best Actress for The Accused, The Silence of the Lambs, and Nell; she won for The Accused and The Silence of the Lambs). When I first heard about Nyad, I expected it to be stodgy Oscar bait. I was delightfully surprised when I found it to be a fresh and vibrant film about the remarkable accomplishments and complex relationship of two queer women. Although Bening is typically superb as Olympian Diane Nyad, I actually found myself much more interested in her best friend and coach Bonnie Stoll. Foster is simultaneously a tough-as-nails, straight-talking hard ass of a coach and a sensitive and loyal companion to her best friend. Her turn is wholly believable, emotionally affecting, and memorable. It is such a delight to have the 2-time Oscar winner back in the Oscar race. Fun Facts: Jodie Foster’s first nomination came in 1976 for Taxi Driver, making this a 47-year span between first and most recent nominations. This is just 2 years shy of DeNiro’s record and 1 year below Katharine Hepburn’s long-held record. With over an hour of screen time, Foster’s is the 7th longest performance ever nominated in this category. Additionally, Foster’s nomination here marks only the 4th time in history an openly LGBTQ actor got nominated for playing an LGBTQ role. The others are Colman Domingo for Rustin this year, Stephanie Hsu for Everything Everywhere All At Once last year, and Ian McKellan for 1998’s Gods and Monsters.
1.) Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (1st nomination). Although I would have given the Best Supporting Actress Oscar to Julianne Moore’s complex and haunting turn in the criminally under-nominated May December, it is impossible to begrudge Randolph her inevitable win for The Holdovers. After years of superb work in films like Dolemite Is My Name and The United States vs. Billie Holiday, television shows like Empire and Only Murders in the Building, and on Broadway in Ghost, Randolph is getting her well-deserved Oscar moment for her turn as grieving mother Mary Lamb in Alexander Payne’s coming-of-age dramedy. Mary is a cook at a private school where she mostly keeps to herself and mourns the death of her beloved son in Vietnam. She reluctantly forms an attachment to the central teacher-student duo portrayed by Paul Giamatti and Dominic Sessa and ultimately steals the film from both of them. Even when the screenplay and the visual storytelling feel overly familiar, Randolph’s Mary feels like something fresh and deeply authentic. There’s a reason she has steamrolled through awards season with an unprecedented sweep. She’s that good. Fun Fact: If Randolph wins (as predicted ), she will be the 7th black woman to win this award in 18 years (38.9%). In contrast, only 2 black women won this award during the first 78 years of the Oscars (2.6%).
Click below to see how I ranked the acting nominees at the last 5 ceremonies:
BEST ACTOR
5.) Bradley Cooper, Maestro (4 prior acting nominations — Actor for Silver Linings Playbook, American Sniper, and A Star is Born and Supporting Actor for American Hustle; 4 prior nominations for producing American Sniper, A Star is Born, Joker, and Nightmare Alley; 1 prior nomination for co-writing A Star is Born; 2 additional nominations this morning for producing and co-writing Maestro; he now has 12 nominations and has yet to win). This was my least favorite of the 20 nominated performances this year. However, I would still take it over recent nominees like Brendan Fraser in The Whale and Ana de Armas in The Whale. The main problem isn’t the much-ridiculed prosthetic nose or the all-too-common issue of actors focusing on imitation over interpretation when taking on the role of icons. Rather, the problem is rooted in the screenplay, which never makes musical genius Leonard Bernstein a particularly interesting, unique, or clearly defined character. There is technical wizardry abound in his conducting scenes and there are moments that Cooper truly melts into the role, but after 2 hours with Cooper’s Bernstein, I never felt that I got a sense of who he was (or who the filmmakers wanted me to think he was). Its this lack of well-executed vision that made the performance and film fall flat for me. Fun Fact: If Cooper loses all 3 of his nominations (as he is expected to), he will be 0-for-12 and will join a small group of artists who have a dozen or more Oscar nominations without a win.
4.) Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (1 prior nomination — Best Supporting Actor for Cinderella Man). Ever since his egregious omission for Alexander Payne’s 2005 masterpiece Sideways, there have been loud and consistent cries of Oscar injustice when it comes to Giamatti. Well, he finally got his Best Actor nomination for the well-liked The Holdovers and is in a strong second place to Cillian Murphy in terms of likelihood of winning. I would be fine seeing him take the trophy as I thought the film was a perfect union of actor and role (similar to Cate Blanchett and Tár last year). The role of Paul Hunham is perhaps the perfect showcase for Giamatti’s curmudgeonliness, fastidiousness, exasperation, and the profound heartbreak, disappointment, and depression that underlies it all. I rank the performance so low only because it felt familiar and expected, which undermined its power for me.
3.) Colman Domingo, Rustin (1st nomination). Rustin fails to defy the trappings of the traditional biopic and as a result comes off as a workmanlike recreation of important historical event as opposed to a true cinematic achievement. As a result, there is only so high Domingo’s performance in the titular role of black gay civil rights leader Bayard Rustin could soar. However, it is difficult to argue that he doesn’t do as much as he possibly can with the role. Triumphantly avoiding caricature and maintaining dignity in each scene, Domingo takes on a profoundly challenging role and absolutely nails it. He is equally impressive in his scenes of grandstanding and showboating as he is in his scenes of quiet desperation. Its truly mind boggling to think about what heights his performance could have reached in a better film.
2.) Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (1st nomination). I first became enamored with Wright’s formidable talent when I saw his Emmy-winning turn as Nurse Belize in Mike Nichols’s masterful HBO adaptation of Tony Kushner’s Angels in America in 2003. In a true testament to Wright’s talent and versatility, there is nary an element of Belize in his turn as Thelonious “Monk” Ellison in American Fiction. Here, he expertly plays a cynical, lonely writer who is reluctantly reconnecting with his estranged family, making enemies at the university he teaches at, and failing to produce writing that connects with readers. Partly as a joke, partly as an experiment, and partly as an act of defiance, Monk writes a book that plays into offensive black stereotypes under a pseudonym and becomes enraged when it becomes a bestseller. The character of Monk is a frustrating one and I found some of the choices made in the screenplay to be frustrating as well, but Wright nails every scene with expert precision. Fun Fact: With Domingo and Wright’s nominations, this year marks the 6th time that the Best Actor category included two black actors. The first time this occurred was in 2001.
1.) Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (1st nomination). When biopic turns win in this category they tend to be over-the-top (e.g., Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody, Gary Oldman in The Darkest Hour) or overly sentimental (e.g., Will Smith in King Richard, Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything). This is why it is so refreshing to see Cillian Murphy as the frontrunner for his role as J. Robert Oppenheimer. There is virtually nothing ostentatious or sentimental about the character or his performance. It is a tour de force brimming with a profound internal conflict in which curiosity, ambition, and narcissism are confronted with uncertainty, guilt, and shame. It’s the type of subtle, internalized performance that the Academy awards all too rarely. Fun Fact: With more than 1 hour and 53 minutes of screen time, his performance marks the 10th longest one ever nominated for Best Actor. This marks the 6th time Murphy has appeared in a movie by director Christopher Nolan. They have both yet to win.
BEST ACTRESS
5.) Carey Mulligan, Maestro (2 prior nominations — Best Actress for An Education and Promising Young Woman). In many ways, Bradley Cooper’s Maestro acts as contradictorily to the character of Felicia Montealagre as Leonard Bernstein acted to the real woman. The film gives Carey Mulligan top billing over Cooper despite the fact that he has far more screen time and the press tour repeatedly emphasized that the film is really about her and their marriage despite the fact that Bernstein alone gets the lion’s share of narrative focus. Mulligan is predictably excellent as Felicia and elevates what could have been a stock “long-suffering supportive wife of a tortured genius” role into something that feels unique and inspired. Although she is forced to navigate all the standard biopic hurdles (e.g., the “meet cute,” the breakdown, the noble death), she also has genuinely startling moments like when she takes responsibility for putting up with Bernstein’s philandering in a disarming and self-aware speech over a meal. Mulligan deserves to have an Oscar (I would have given her one in a heartbeat for her ferocious and nuanced turn in Promising Young Woman), but she deserves to win it for a better film and role than Maestro.
4.) Annette Bening, Nyad (4 prior nominations — Supporting Actress for The Grifters and Actress for American Beauty, Being Julia, and The Kids Are All Right). Although I would have replaced Mulligan and Bening with Margot Robbie and Greta Lee, I certainly can’t begrudge those two spectacular actresses another nomination. Bening has been one of my favorite actresses since her luminous and witty star turn in Rob Reiner’s criminally underrated 1996 romantic comedy masterwork The American President. She brings her typical degree of gravitas, technical precision, and charisma to the role of Diane Nyad, an ambitious former Olympian who tries to pull off the unprecedented feat of swimming from Cuba to Florida when she is far past her physical prime. Nyad is a prickly character that is hard to root for at times, but it is a testament to Bening’s bravery that she leans into that and explores it rather than shies away from it. Her performance also has an intense and impressive physicality to it that failed to get a fraction of the press coverage that less impressive feats by recent Oscar nominees (mostly younger and male ones) did. Fun Fact: Bening joins an elite group of actors nominated for an acting Oscar in each of the past 4 decades (i.e., ’90s, ’00s, ’10s, ’20s). The rest of this group is comprised of Cate Blanchett, Dame Judi Dench, Frances McDormand, and Denzel Washington. McDormand and Washington stretch back further as they have been nominated in each of the past 5 decades.
3.) Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (1st nomination). It’s hard to separate my feelings about Hüller’s performance in Anatomy of a Fall from her performance in another Best Picture nominee this year that I liked even more — The Zone of Interest. But Oscars are supposed to be given for an actor’s specific performance in one film and not their body of work, so I will focus on Fall here. Justine Triet’s film is based around the fact that the character of Sandra Voyter is unsentimental, prickly, frustrating, stubborn, and contradictory. That’s what makes everyone — including the viewer — uncertain about whether she murdered her husband. In lesser hands, the character would be rendered a one-note villain or an utter enigma, but Hüller injects her with vulnerability, humanity, and empathy at every turn. It is an incredibly difficult performance not just for the emotional complexity she is required to convey, but also for the linguistic challenges of playing (and being) a native German speaker who is repeatedly being forced to convey her inner world in French and English. It is a testament to how strong the next actresses are that she ranks 3rd for such a terrific performance.
2.) Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (1st nomination). The decision to focus Killers of the Flower Moon on the white male criminals who destroyed an entire community of Native Americans as opposed to the Native Americans themselves is unsurprising given Hollywood’s historic failure to highlight (let alone center) indigenous people and director Martin Scorcese’s longstanding fascination with depicting the nuances of criminality. Nevertheless, it is a very frustrating one. Despite this, Lily Gladstone dominates the film so assuredly that she even steals the scenes where she is silently sitting in the background. And this is no small feat when you are starring opposite acting titans like Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert DeNiro. She transitions from cautious and playful to horrified and resigned to stoic and triumphant with captivating authenticity. It is a truly remarkable performance. Fun Fact: Gladstone if the first Native American woman ever nominated for an acting Oscar. Three prior women with indigenous heritage have been nominated — Merle Oberon (1935’s The Dark Angel) and Keisha Castle-Hughes (2003’s Whale Rider) have Maori ancestry and Yalitza Aparicio (2018’s Roma) is Native Mexican.
1.) Emma Stone, Poor Things (3 prior nominations — Best Supporting Actress for Birdman and The Favourite and Best Actress for La La Land; she won for La La Land; she was also nominated this year for producing Poor Things; she now has 5 total nominations). It pains me not to rank Gladstone 1st here for 3 reasons. First, I always like to see deserving actors get their 1st trophy over an actor adding another one to their mantle. Second, giving her the Oscar would be a grand gesture to perhaps the most marginalized of all minority groups in Hollywood. And, third, it is such a complex, high-degree-of-difficulty performance. But, when I saw Emma Stone’s turn in Poor Things I remember thinking that I was watching something so bold, innovative, and skillful that it may just have been one of the best acting performances I had ever seen. To even describe the character Stone portrays would require far more space than I have here and would provide spoilers galore, but let’s just say that Bella Baxter is a sheltered woman raised with affection by a controlling scientist who goes on a journey of discovery. With few social graces and no understanding of social expectations (and thus, no sense of shame), she hilariously and confidently stomps her way through Victorian-era Europe (or at least Yorgos Lanthimos’s steampunk interpretation of it). It is a wildly entertaining, wholly original performance that defies description and proves that Emma Stone is among the very best actresses working today.
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