Everything You Need to Know About the 96th Academy Awards

On Sunday, March 10th, the long and windy road to the 96th Academy Awards come to an end when the telecast is broadcast live on ABC and Disney+. After a tumultuous few years, it appears to be a year of stability and predictability with few changes to the ceremony and a clear frontrunner in the form of Oppenheimer. Here, I preview the telecast and provide predictions for who will win in all 23 categories.

This article is about who I think will win the Oscars this year. To find out who I think should win the top Oscars this year, check out my articles ranking the four acting categories and the contenders in the screenplay, directing, and Best Picture categories.

A Brief Look Back at the Recent Oscar Telecasts

The last few years have been a wild ride in terms of Oscar ceremonies. The Academy has had to deal with the pandemic, increasingly loud demands for greater diversity, and dwindling viewership.

In a fortuitous coincidence, the 2020 Oscar ceremony was moved several weeks earlier from its original to avoid competing with the Winter Olympics. By doing so, they managed to be over and done with nearly a full month before the COVID-19 lockdown hit the U.S. That telecast certainly had its fair share of bizarre elements (like Eminem inexplicably showing up to sing his Oscar-winning song “Lose Yourself” nearly 2 decades after he snubbed the Oscars and declined to perform), but it had numerous memorable ones as well, including Janelle Monae’s electrifying opening, some hilarious presenting pairs, and the shocking and delightful surprise of Parasite winning Best Picture and Best Director.

With the lockdown still in effect, the the 2021 Oscar ceremony had to do some major pivoting. It was an unmitigated disaster and unsurprisingly the lowest-rated telecast in history. The producers made several ill-advised choices, including allowing long-winded speeches, opting not to have a notable opening of any kind, and disastrously switching up the order of the awards. (Particularly cringe-inducing was how they put Best Actor last in a shameless bid to end the ceremony on an emotional high note as Chadwick Boseman’s widow accepted the award on his behalf, only for the award to go to Anthony Hopkins, who couldn’t attend due to COVID.)

For the 2022 Oscar ceremony, the Academy and ABC were determined to get ratings up at any cost. And it worked! Ratings were up nearly 60% over the previous year’s low. Although the telecast was certainly not boring, it was also far from their best. In order to get ratings up, the Academy made numerous attempts to make the show more entertaining and friendly to the general republic (read: people who don’t obsess over movies and awards season). By far the worst of these attempts was the showcasing of 2 fan awards voted on by Twitter users. Not faring much better was the decision to give out 8 of the 23 awards in the hour prior to the telecast and then edit them into the main show. In addition to being a major insult to all of the people who poured their blood, sweat, and tears into those projects, it was also confusingly and jarringly edited. It also did not succeed at all in making the show shorter as it still ran an astounding 3 hours and 40 minutes. Then there was the somewhat bizarre hosting trio of Amy Schumer, Wanda Sykes, and Regina Hall, who proved uneven at best. And then there was the shocking Will Smith-Chris Rock slap, which nothing more needs to be said about… ever.

Thankfully, last year’s Oscar ceremony was a stunning return to form. The Academy returned to the standard format of having a single host with Jimmy Kimmel returning for his 3rd ceremony. The show featured some memorable musical numbers from the likes of Rihanna and Lady Gaga. The show featuredwell-selected and surprising presenter pairs like Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Paul Dano and a Four Weddings and a Funeral reunion of Hugh Grant and Andie MacDowell. And there was an array of exciting winners as Everything Everywhere All At Once broke numerous records with its near clean sweep of the top categories.

Thankfully, the Academy appears to be determined not to rock the boat this year and seems to be preparing an elegant, straightforward night honoring Hollywood’s best from the past year. Below, I dive into what we know about the ceremony itself before sharing my predictions in all 23 categories.

Previewing the 96th Academy Awards Ceremony

Here is what we know so far about Sunday’s Oscar ceremony.

1. The ceremony will be broadcast live on ABC on Sunday, March 10th. It will start an hour earlier than usual, at 7pm EST/4pm PST. This will presumably increase the number of East Coast viewers that stay up to watch the end of the ceremony (scheduled for 3 hours and 30 minutes) and also allows ABC to take a cue from the Super Bowl and capitalize on the presumably high viewership by showcasing an episode of Abbott Elementary’s 3rd season as a lead-out program.
2. After holding out for several years, the Academy has decided that the Oscars will stream live this year. The ceremony will stream on Disney+, which is unsurprising given that Disney owns ABC.
3. The ceremony will be produced by Raj Kapoor and Katy Mullan and directed by Hamish Hamilton. Kapoor’s credits include previous Oscar ceremonies and music specials like the Emmy-winning Adele: One Night Only. Mullan is new to the Oscars but has a long history of producing telecasts of live music programs. Hamilton is also new to the Oscars but has numerous relevant credits under his belt, including his Emmy-winning work on Rihanna’s Super Bowl Halftime Show and numerous awards ceremonies like the Primetime Emmys and the Grammys.
4. Late night talk show host Jimmy Kimmel will host for the 4th time after previously hosting the 2017, 2018, and 2023 telecasts. I have always found him to be a bit smug and not as funny as he thinks he is, but I am not going to complain given that he was surprisingly quite good last year and I prefer the single host format.
5. All 23 awards will be presented on the telecast. The Academy clearly learned their lesson after the uproar caused by the decision to present 8 awards off of the main telecast in 2022.
6. All 5 of the Best Original Song nominees will be performed on the telecast. Billie Eilish and her brother Finneas O’Connell will perform front-runner “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie. Best Supporting Actor nominee Ryan Gosling will perform “I’m Just Ken,” his hilarious and show-stopping song from Barbie. Becky G will perform “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (which scored songwriter Diane Warren her record 15th nomination in the category). Jon Batiste will perform “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony. Finally, Scott George and The Osage Singers will perform “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon. It has not been announced yet whether anyone will perform during the annual “In Memoriam” segment.
7. For the acting categories, the Oscars will bring back the format of having previous winners in the category introduce each of the nominees. This format was used to great acclaim at the 81st Academy Awards and I am delighted that they are reviving it. Among the previous acting winners who are confirmed presenters and likely to participate are Mahershala Ali, Nicolas Cage, Jamie Lee Curtis, Brendan Fraser, Jessica Lange, Matthew McConaughey, Lupita Nyong’o, Al Pacino, Ke Huy Quan, Sam Rockwell, Michelle Yeoh, Regina King, Jennifer Lawrence, Rita Moreno, Octavia Spencer, Sally Field, Ben Kingsley, Tim Robbins, Mary Steenburgen, Charlize Theron, Christoph Waltz, and Forest Whitaker.
8. Additional presenters that have been announced include Michelle Pfeiffer, Zendaya, Bad Bunny, Chris Hemsworth, Dwayne Johnson, Michael Keaton, Kate McKinnon, John Mulaney, Catherine O’Hara, Ramy Youssef, Emily Blunt, Cynthia Erivo, America Ferrera, Ryan Gosling, Ariana Grande, Melissa McCarthy, Issa Rae, Steven Spielberg, and Anya Taylor-Joy.

Regarding ratings, I suspect that they will remain solid this year even if they fall a bit from last year’s mark of 18.75 million viewers (which was up 13% from the prior year). My reasoning is that it is another year where the Best Picture lineup features several blockbusters, including the inescapable cultural phenomena that are Barbie and Oppenheimer. But even if the ratings stay high, they will never return to their 1990s heyday when they were appointment viewing for the nation. With the exception of the Super Bowl, no live telecasts unites the country like they did decades ago and its critical that ABC, the Academy, and all the news outlets that report on the Oscars stop embracing the argument that if the Oscars just become edgier and more populous they can retain their former ratings glory. The world and the industry have changed. And that’s okay.

PREDICTING THE WINNERS IN ALL 23 CATEGORIES

One thing I am almost positive of is that my accuracy will be higher than last year, when I correctly guessed only 15 of the 23 categories (65%). My high-profile misses were Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress. This is a considerable step down from the previous year, when I correctly predicted 20 out of the 23 categories (87%). Interestingly, despite my opinion that this is the strongest lineup of nominees in recent memory many of the categories have clear frontrunners and little competition.

Without further ado, here are my predictions in all 23 categories.

The Specialty Film Categories:

Best Animated Feature: The Boy and the Heron; Elemental; Nimona; Robot Dreams; Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. This category usually has a clear frontrunner, but this year it is one of the most competitive and difficult to predict categories. Will voters go for Spider-Man: Across the Spiderverse, the critically acclaimed box office smash sequel to the Oscar-winning Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse? Or will they give Japanese animation legend Hayao Miyazaki his 2nd Oscar for The Boy and the Heron? The two films have split the precursors with Spider-Man taking the top Annie, Critics Choice, and Producers Guild Awards while Heron took the BAFTA and Golden Globe. I give the slight edge to Spider-Man given what an enormous hit it was with both critics and audiences in America but it’s a neck-and-neck race. Will Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spiderverse Possible Upset: The Boy and the Heron

Best International Feature Film: Io capitano (Italy); Perfect Days (Japan); Society of the Snow (Spain); The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany); The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom). All 5 nominees have enough buzz and critical acclaim to be competitive for a win, but it’s hard to imagine this award not going to The Zone of Interest given that it showed up in multiple other categories, including Best Picture. In the very unlikely event that there is an upset, I suspect it will be Society of the Snow, which is widely available on Netflix and showed up in another category. Will Win: The Zone of Interest Possible Upset: Society of the Snow

Best Documentary Feature: Bobi Wine: The People’s President; The Eternal Memory; Four Daughters; To Kill a Tiger; 20 Days in Mariupol. Given its timeliness, importance, and immense critical acclaim, its hard to imagine 20 Days in Mariupol losing the top award. The searing chronicle of the war between Russia and Ukraine will undoubtedly move voters. The two films most likely to upset are the innovative Tunisian film Four Daughters and the lyrical Chilean film The Eternal Memory. Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol Possible Upset: Four Daughters

Best Documentary Short Subject: The ABCs of Book Banning; The Barber of Little Rock; Island in Between; The Last Repair Shop; Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó. The Last Repair Shop, about the people who repair musical instruments for public school students in Los Angeles, and Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó, about the daily lives of elderly Chinese immigrants, both have a strong chance of upsetting but I suspect that this will go to The ABCs of Book Banning given how hot the topic of censorship is in Hollywood. Will Win: The ABCs of Book Banning Possible Upset: The Last Repair Shop

Best Animated Short Film: Letter to a Pig; Ninety-Five Senses; Our Uniform; Pachyderme; War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko. It looks like the frontrunners here are War is Over!, which combines the music of John Lennon and Yoko Ono with a tale of WWII carrier pigeons, and Letter to a Pig, an Israeli-French film about generational trauma. The former sounds more appealing to Oscar voters so I will give it the edge. Will Win: War Is Over! Possible Upset: Letter to a Pig

Best Live Action Short Film: The After; Invincible; Knight of Fortune; Red, White and Blue; The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar. This appears to be a three-way race between The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Wes Anderson’s short film starring Benedict Cumberbatch; Red, White and Blue, which examines the increasing restrictions on abortion in the United States; and The After, which tells the wrenching story of a grieving London taxi driver. I am almost inclined to pick Red, White and Blue given what a hot topic abortion access in Hollywood, but I ultimately suspect that Oscar voters will want to use this opportunity to give 8-time nominee Wes Anderson his 1st Academy Award. Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar Possible Upset: Red, White, and Blue

The Technical/Craft Categories:

Best Original Score: American Fiction; Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny; Killers of the Flower Moon; Oppenheimer; Poor Things. Ludwig Göransson seems locked to win his 2nd Oscar in the category for his memorable work on Oppenheimer. (He previously won for Black Panther.) If there is an upset, I suspect it will be Robbie Robertson’s work on Killers of the Flower Moon. Robertson is a longtime collaborator of Martin Scorcese’s who passed away last year and received his first ever nomination for his work on the film. Will Win: Oppenheimer Possible Upset: Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Original Song: “The Fire Inside,” Flamin’ Hot; “I’m Just Ken,” Barbie; “It Never Went Away,” American Fiction; “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” Killers of the Flower Moon; “What Was I Made For?,” Barbie. Sorry, Diane Warren, but you will be adding another loss to your astonishing collection. This award is bound to go to one of the two songs nominated from Barbie. I think “What Was I Made For?” will win decisively and make Billie Eilish and her brother Finneas O’Connell the youngest artists ever to win two Oscars. (They previously won in this category for “No Time to Die” from the James Bond film of the same name.) Some suspect that the film’s catchier and more playful number “I’m Just Ken” could win, but the Academy’s tendency to go for heart-tugging ballads here gives “What Was I Made For?” the clear advantage. Will Win: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie Possible Upset: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

Best Cinematography: El Conde; Killers of the Flower Moon; Maestro; Oppenheimer; Poor Things. This is a close race between the three nomination leaders — Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and Killers of the Flower Moon. I suspect that Oppenheimer takes it and that Flower Moon is in a strong second given Rodrigo Pietro’s relatively high profile (he was previously nominated for Brokeback Mountain and the Scorcese films Silence and The Irishman). Will Win: Oppenheimer Possible Upset: Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Film Editing: Anatomy of a Fall; The Holdovers; Killers of the Flower Moon; Oppenheimer; Poor Things. This looks like a surefire win for Oppenheimer due to the fact that its editing is flashy (which tends to win over Oscar voters) and that this category tends to converge with the eventual Best Picture winner more often than not (although this trend has decreased in recent years). If there’s an upset, I suspect it will be Anatomy of a Fall, which garnered much acclaim for this particular aspect. Will Win: Oppenheimer Possible Upset: Anatomy of a Fall

Best Production Design: Barbie; Killers of the Flower Moon; Napoleon; Oppenheimer; Poor Things. All five nominees are richly deserving, but I suspect this will be a showdown between the Steampunk-inspired vision of Victorian Europe on display in Poor Things and the pink and plastic “Barbie World” showcased in Barbie. I give the slight edge to Poor Things, largely because it feels more in line with the typical winners in this category. Will Win: Poor Things Possible Upset: Barbie

Best Costume Design: Barbie; Killers of the Flower Moon; Napoleon; Oppenheimer; Poor Things. Like the Best Production Design category (which interestingly includes the exact same set of nominees), I suspect that this will be a showdown between Poor Things and Barbie. However, here I give the slight edge to Barbie given how much the film emphasizes clothing. Will Win: Barbie Possible Upset: Poor Things

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Golda; Maestro; Oppenheimer; Poor Things; Society of the Snow. There has been a major trend in recent years for biopics to win this category, so the smart money is on Maestro. However, if voters are turned off by the controversy surrounding Bradley Cooper’s prosthetic nose or decide to actually vote for the best makeup and hairstyling, they could turn in sufficient droves to Poor Things. Will Win: Maestro Possible Upset: Poor Things

Best Sound: The Creator; Maestro; Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One; Oppenheimer; The Zone of Interest. Here is one of the few categories where I am not going to go with the general consensus and predict a bit of an upset. Whereas many suspect this will be another win for Oppenheimer, I am predicting that the Academy will give it to The Zone of Interest given that the film is ultimately built around its striking and innovative sound design. It’s hard for me to imagine viewers watching the film and not voting for it, so I guess it will come down to whether or not enough voters watched their screener of the film. Will Win: The Zone of Interest Possible Upset: Oppenheimer

Best Visual Effects: The Creator; Godzilla Minus One; Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3; Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One; Napoleon. This is one of the few technical categories not to have a clear frontrunner. Had it done better at the box office, I could see The Creator winning. Had it done better with critics and the Academy, I could see Napoleon winning. I suspect that it will go to Godzilla Minus One, which successfully crossed over to American audiences from Japan and garnered marked critical support. Will Win: Godzilla Minus One Possible Upset: The Creator

The Top 8 Categories:

Best Adapted Screenplay: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction; Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie; Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer; Tony McNamara, Poor Things; Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest. The Academy threw a major wrench into the screenplay categories when it controversially recategorized Barbie as an adapted screenplay despite it campaigning as an original screenplay. I think it has a shot at pulling off an upset (which would give the overdue Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach their first Oscars), but the general consensus based on the precursors seems to be that Cord Jefferson will pull off the win for American Fiction. And I can’t entirely rule out that Christopher Nolan will also win here as part of an Oppenheimer sweep. Will Win: Cord Jefferson Possible Upset: Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach

Best Original Screenplay: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall; David Hemingson, The Holdovers; Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer, Maestro; Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik, May December; Celine Song, Past Lives. One of the biggest stories of this awards season is how Anatomy of a Fall over-performed relative to expectations and garnered numerous high-profile nominations. The general consensus is that it will get its sole win here for the screenplay Justine Triet (who also directed the film) wrote with her husband Arthur Harari. Their closest competition appears to be David Hemingson’s script for the crowd-pleasing The Holdovers, but I will never stop rooting for Celine’s Song richly deserving Past Lives. Will Win: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari Possible Upset: David Hemingson

Best Supporting Actor: Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction; Robert DeNiro, Killers of the Flower Moon; Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer; Ryan Gosling, Barbie; Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things. As fun and novel as it would be to see the Academy fete an explicitly comic performance, Ryan Gosling’s hilarious and self-effacing turn as Ken in Barbie does not have much of a shot of defeating Robert Downey Jr’s decidedly more serious (but equally brilliant) turn in Oppenheimer. After spending most of the last 15 years headlining Marvel movies as Iron Man, Downey Jr. returned to his dramatic roots with a riveting performance as Oppenheimer’s adversary Lewis Strauss and garnered wins at the SAG Awards, the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs, and the Critics Choice Awards. He is so far out front that an upset would be a genuine shocker. Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. Possible Upset: Ryan Gosling

Best Supporting Actress: This is probably the easiest category to predict this year. In the nearly 30 years that I have tracked the Oscar races, Da’Vine Joy Randolph is the only actor to have swept what I consider to be the 8 major precursor awards — SAG, Golden Globes, BAFTAs, Critics Choice, National Society of Film Critics, National Board of Review, New York Film Critics, and Los Angeles Film Critics. Her turn in The Holdovers could not have more support and its virtually unthinkable that anyone else could win. If I am forced to pick an alternate, I guess I will go with Emily Blunt who was long overdue for an Oscar nomination and could get swept up in the love for Oppenheimer. But her chances are not markedly better than any of the other contenders. Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph Possible Upset: Emily Blunt

Best Actor: Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Colman Domingo, Rustin; Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers; Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer; Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction. Conventional wisdom was that this category was going to be a showdown between Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer and Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers. However, the race has clarified in recent weeks as Murphy’s victories at the BAFTAs and SAG Awards seems to have clinched his win. I can’t entirely rule out a Giamatti upset, though, given that he won the comedy Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Award for his performance and many are still bitter about his “snub” for Sideways back in 2005. At this point, however, I would say Giamatti is neck and neck with Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction for 2nd place and that both are far behind Murphy. Will Win: Cillian Murphy Possible Upset: Jeffrey Wright

Best Actress: Annette Bening, Nyad; Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon; Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall; Carey Mulligan, Maestro; Emma Stone, Poor Things. Sadly, the overdue Annette Bening and Carey Mulligan will add another loss to their tallies this year. I initially thought Sandra Hüller might be a spoiler for the win, but when she failed to win the BAFTA I counted her out. Ultimately, this is a nail-biting showdown between Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon and Emma Stone in Poor Things. Gladstone won the SAG and the drama Golden Globe, while Stone won the BAFTA, Critics Choice, and comedy Golden Globe. I give the ever-so-slight edge to Gladstone, given the fact that her win would be history-making, she clearly has support of the acting branch, and her film has a bevy of nominations. However, a 2nd win for Stone is almost equally as likely given her strong precursor run, the stunning acclaim for her performance, and the strong support for her film overall. This is the most competitive category of the night and will certainly keep prognosticators at the edge of their seats. Will Win: Lily Gladstone Possible Upset: Emma Stone

Best Director: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest; Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things; Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer; Martin Scorcese, Killers of the Flower Moon; Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall. It is hard to imagine anyone other than Christopher Nolan taking this. Despite an impressive filmography that includes Best Picture nominees Inception and Dunkirk and beloved blockbusters like The Dark Knight and Interstellar, he has never won an Oscar. So far this awards season, he has won the Best Director award at the Directors Guild, Golden Globes, BAFTA, and Critics Choice Awards. The likelihood of an upset is astoundingly low, but I suspect the most likely person to do it would be Jonathan Glazer given what a stunning directorial achievement The Zone of Interest is and how late in the game it peaked. Will Win: Christopher Nolan Possible Upset: Jonathan Glazer

Best Picture: American Fiction; Anatomy of a Fall; Barbie; The Holdovers; Killers of the Flower Moon; Maestro; Oppenheimer; Past Lives; Poor Things; The Zone of Interest. In most of the last few years there was some real competition when it came to the top award. Buzzy showdowns in recent years included Green Book vs. Roma, Parasite vs. 1917, CODA vs. The Power of the Dog, and Everything Everywhere All at Once vs. All Quiet on the Western Front. This year, however, there is no clear alternative to Oppenheimer. Christopher Nolan’s biography of Manhattan Project architect J. Robert Oppenheimer has already won the top awards at the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, Screen Actors Guild, BAFTA, Golden Globes, and Critics Choice ceremonies. I honestly have no idea what the alternative would be as none of the other nominees appears to have a groundswell of support. I would suspect that it would be Poor Things (which had a great showing of 11 nominations), Barbie (which was a cultural phenomenon), The Holdovers (which was a heartwarming crowdpleaser), or The Zone of Interest (which is a critical darling that had its support grow markedly in the final weeks of the season). Will Win: Oppenheimer Possible Upset: The Zone of Interest

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