NBA 2022–2023 PREDICTIONS, PART 1

We’ve Seen Enough To Separate The Wheat From The Chaff

With a track record like mine, you can take it to the bank*

Unlike other sports analysts, I don’t spit out hot takes like a Saint Bernard that thought your five-alarm hot sauce was a bowl of au jus.

After Kevin Durant joined a team that won 73 games in 2016, the Warriors’ next two titles took all the mystery out of basketball.

Going into the 2018–2019 season, I came up with a system that led me to predict the Toronto Raptors would meet the Golden State Warriors in the Finals.

In July 2019, I wrote that Steve Kerr feared the Lakers, because he knew the Lakers would be the biggest threat to his team. In January 17, 2020, I observed the following about the top three teams:

The only real question for the Bucks to reach the NBA Finals will be if coach Budenholzer can make adjustments to his system if they play an elite 3-point shooting team like Miami (#2)

(He couldn’t and the Bucks’ defensive weakness against 3-pointers killed them against Miami.)

However, the Clippers have a huge hole to fill themselves, as their lack of size at center means they could lose a series to a team with a dominant center like Utah or Denver in the playoffs before they get the chance to play the Lakers.

(Nailed it.)

With LeBron’s advanced age, the Lakers have a small window at a title. Those title hopes revolve around the ability to add a good wing defender or upgrade at point guard so they have a better two-way player who can guide the offense when LeBron is on the bench.

(They signed Markieff Morris from the buyout market, Kuzma improved dramatically as a defender, and Rondo was fantastic in the playoffs. And Davis played like an MVP as the Lakers won the title.)

After the Lakers won in 2020, the league adjusted to LeBron winning the title and I had to adjust the keys to winning.

And after watching the Bucks freeze in the headlights again I made a major tweak to the six boxes.

#4: The coach knows how to put his players in a position to win.

My biggest mistake that year was not following my own advice about coaches. For some reason, I confused Doc Rivers’ leadership qualities (11 out of 10 in his response to the Donald Sterling fiasco and the 2020 playoff boycott after the Jacob Blake shooting) with his coaching abilities (set the record for blowing 3–1 playoff series leads). I will never do that again.

Since COVID, the champions were not the best teams, but the healthiest ones.

With the shutdown, compressed schedules, and post-Olympics fatigue, there have been an unprecedented number of injuries to star players. For the last two seasons, we have not seen the best two teams in the Finals.

In 2021, the Phoenix Suns should have lost to both the Lakers and Clippers, while Milwaukee was badly outclassed by Brooklyn. But injuries to Anthony Davis, Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving and James Harden changed everything.

In 2022, Milwaukee was clearly better than Boston, but Khris Middleton’s injury evened the odds enough for impossible three-point shooting by Al Horford to save the Celtcis from losing the series in Game 5. In the West, Chris Paul’s body broke down in the playoffs and the Suns flamed out in historic fashion against Dallas.

The Warriors started out as the best team in basketball, then limped through the season due to injuries to Draymond Green and Stephen Curry. Somehow, they got healthy for the playoffs and won another title, even if they weren’t as good as the team that won in 2015.

I didn’t write my NBA predictions last year because of a death in the family.

The date was July 29, 2021, the official day the Los Angeles Lakers title hopes died. Perhaps you know that dark day. Or, you rejoiced because you hate the Lakers. Either way, the Russell Westbrook trade made me numb.

About the only thing I could do was write 5,700 words about the terrible state of NBA analysis during the playoffs. And since nobody would read a 25-minute article, I broke it up into three articles that nobody would read.

The problem with the media is that the so-called “experts” are driven by ratings and clicks, not the desire to impart real knowledge of the game. Now let’s get to the title contenders.

Here are Ceasar’s odds for who will win the 2022–2023 title.

Since there is no way to predict which teams will be healthy in the post season, all we can do is look at each team’s ceiling.

I’ll rate the teams by their highest ceiling and the probability they can play at their highest level throughout the playoffs.

TIER I: Teams with fatal flaws

These teams won’t make it to the Finals for the reasons outlined below.

A bad coach can’t make the adjustments necessary to win a tough playoff series. A bad front office can hamstring a good coach with bad roster construction.

Philadelphia 76ers

Doc Rivers’ coaching and James Harden’s playoff history eliminates the team regardless of how well Joel Embiid may play. But the criminal move was deciding to keep Tobias Harris instead of Jimmy Butler. They were one lucky shot away from beating Toronto in the 2019 playoffs. Without Butler, the team collapsed in the playoffs three years in a row.

Brooklyn Nets

Their front office caved in on the demands of Kevin Durant and Kyrie and it cost them an All-Star center (Jarred Allen) and a very good coach (Kenny Atkinson). They still have a ton of offensive fire power, but they won’t win a title when they have two or three defensive liabilities on the floor during crunch time and no real rim protection except KD.

Teams that have to double team top wings like Giannis, Kawhi, LeBron, Butler, and Tatum have no chance.

Cleveland Cavaliers

They brought in 6'1" All-Star guard who can’t defend to team up with another 6'1" guard who can’t defend. And their “wingstopper” is Caris Lavert. Cleveland has two great rim protecting bigs, and their guards are red hot from deep right now, so they will be a formidable regular season opponent. But that won’t be enough to win a playoff series against Boston or Milwaukee. Even Miami with Jimmy Butler will cause them problems. Their only chance is to swing a trade for an elite wing defender.

Teams with centers who can’t guard on the perimeter have no chance to win a title.

L.A. Clippers

Ivica Zubac has improved a lot since his days with the Lakers, but the Clippers highest level is when the play small ball. Without Kawhi Leonard, this team has no chance to win a title. And even if Kawhi Leonard could stay healthy an entire season, they will always be vulnerable to teams with dominant big men such as the Nuggets and Suns.

New Orleans Pelicans

No matter how much Zion Williamson dominates in the paint, he’s a terrible defender and a liability in transition defense. The Pelicans have some terrific talent, but none of their centers can go out to defend. Add the below average defense of CJ McCollum and New Orleans will usually have at least two defensive liabilities on the floor during crunch time. There’s a reason that their top five 5-man lineups by net rating feature Jose Alvarado. And Larry Nance Jr. is the center in 13 of their top 15 5-man lineups by net rating. New Orleans is a bottom 5 defense in opponent 3-pointers attempted. For now, opponents are missing a lot, but a good playoff team will exploit this weakness.

TIER 2: Teams with one-dimensional superstars

The most important change since the 3-point shot revolutionized basketball in 2011 is the need for two-way players. When a player can’t shoot from outside the restricted area, it’s like playing four on five against modern defenses. When a player can’t defend at an average level, they will be hunted and forced to defend until they get pulled from the game. These teams won’t win a title because their biggest strength is also their biggest weakness.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves were never going to have the toughness to win a title when their best player, Anthony Towns, is a terrible defender. Add in and D’Angelo Russell, a ball stopping point guard who is also a defensive liability, and you have a team that can’t get stops in crunch time. Instead of building around future superstar Anthony Edwards, Minnesota went all in on the Rudy Gobert trade, losing three good role players who can defend and five first round draft picks. That will go down as the worst trade in NBA history. Gobert gets played off the floor in the playoffs every time a team goes small, so they have no chance. Even worse, Gobert has brought all those locker room problems with him from Utah. The team is fractured and Minnesota fans will be howling for years to come.

Denver Nuggets

As good as the Nuggets are on offense, Jokic is not a good defender and needs to be surrounded by stout, physical defenders. While they made a great trade to get Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, KCP has a very specific skill set that only works against smaller guards. The problem is their core stars — Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. — are all defensive liabilities. This team will never win a game by defending, so they always have to be on fire from outside.

Dallas Mavericks

With the loss of Jalen Brunson, the Mavs are even more over-dependent on Luka Doncic. They are the worst team in the league in points in the paint, so they are just another high variance team that depends on hitting 3-pointers. Last year’s flukey run to the conference finals will not happen again. Even worse, Dallas has become a bottom 10 defense this season.

Memphis Grizzlies

Try to name a team that won a title with a small point guard who can’t defend. I’ll wait. Memphis should have lost in the first round to Minnesota, but the Wolves self-destructed. They played a couple of competitive games against the Warriors, then lost by 30 in Game 3, despite Ja Morant scoring 34 while making 4 of 7 3-pointers. It was a losing formula and it will continue to be a losing formula. He’s one of the most exciting players in basketball, but he’s going to join guys like John Stockton, Alan Iverson, Steve Nash, and Derrick Rose. If you’re going to be Tony Parker, you’d better have a Tim Duncan and an all-time great coach like Gregg Popovich.

In parts 2 and 3, I will analyze the teams that have a non-zero possibility to win the title.

Thanks for reading!

*Disclaimer: this is not gambling advice. When I said you can take it to the bank, I meant you should put it in a safe deposit box and never look at it again until I remind you of the one prediction I got right.