NBA PREDICTIONS PART 1
NBA 2021: Is the Way of the Warriors Dead?
Taking on the King means adjusting the six keys to win an NBA title this season
The Golden State Warriors had an incredible five-year run, but were they really “light years ahead?”
That was the pronouncement of Joe Lacob in 2016, as the Warriors were rolling to a record-setting 73–9 regular season.
He is the same guy who was booed by Warriors fans when he bought the team in 2010, a team that had won one playoff series since 1991. Under Lacob’s leadership, the Warriors won 59 games! Oh, I forgot to mention that was over his first two seasons as owner.
But he did hire Jerry West and Bob Myers in 2011, and those were brilliant moves, along with drafting Curry, Thompson, Green and Harrison Barnes, and hiring Steve Kerr as coach.
The Warriors also hit it big when the salary cap jackpot of 2016 allowed them to sign Kevin Durant, making them the best team in the league for the next three years. Unfortunately, the injuries to Durant and Thompson killed the team’s chances for a three-peat and they are now stuck in salary cap hell with a roster that has no chance of winning a round in the playoffs.
I guess light years aren’t worth what they used to be.
In 2018, the Warriors were the gold standard of the NBA, playing the most beautiful brand of basketball seen since the Showtime Lakers.
In October 2018, I analyzed the NBA from the perspective of six key elements a team needed if they wanted a chance to beat the Warriors.
And it worked perfectly that season, as I predicted the Raptors to win the East and meet the Warriors.
The great free agent signings of 2019 did little to change my thoughts about the six boxes, as the Clippers, Lakers and Bucks checked the most boxes and were the only real title contenders.
By the time the season was suspended due to the pandemic in March, I had seen enough to realize the Lakers were the best team in the NBA, but still thought that match-up problems with the Clippers might prevent them from winning the title.
After watching the collapse of the Clippers and Bucks in the playoffs, I had to adjust two of the six keys.
Because playoff basketball slows down, I adjusted box #3 (easy transition baskets) to read as follows:
#3: Excel at attacking the paint in both the half court and in transition.
The Warriors were surprisingly good at getting to the rim because of the floor spacing of Curry, Durant, and Thompson. And Durant was deadly if he got anywhere near the paint with his jump shot.
Milwaukee, the Clippers, Houston and Boston all fell short because they became jump shooting teams in playoff crunch time, while LeBron James and Anthony Davis could put pressure on the rim when it counted.
And when a team puts pressure on the rim, teams try to collapse in the paint leaving wide open jump shots.
Besides LeBron, Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Jimmy Butler (Heat), were automatic once they got inside the paint, using an arsenal of fall away jumpers, floaters and drawing contact to get to the free throw line.
#4: The coach knows how to put his players in a position to win.
They have to have expertise in one or more of the following: scheme, substitution patterns, or psychological motivation.
LeBron James has made a career out of carrying unknown coaches to the Finals, like Mike Brown, David Blatt, and Tyronn Lue. (Note: Lue was on the Lakers for two of the first Kobe-Shaq titles, and is famous for being the guy on the floor beneath Allen Iverson in Game 1 of the 2001 Finals).
Look at the NBA pedigree of coaches that have reached the Finals since 2000: Phil Jackson (7), Popovich (6), Kerr (5), Spoelstra (5), Tyronn Lue (3), Larry Brown (3), Rivers (2), Byron Scott (2), Pat Riley, Larry Bird, Rick Carlisle, Nick Nurse, Avery Johnson.
All of them had previously won an NBA championship as a player, assistant coach or head coach (Popovich won his first title in 1999).
Only Stan Van Gundy and Frank Vogel reached the Finals without prior championship experience, but they were basketball innovators.
Van Gundy used a 6'10" forward as point guard, surrounded Dwight Howard with great jump shooters who took and made the second most three-pointers in the league besides and took the Orlando Magic to the 2009 Finals before the three-point revolution began with the 2011 Mavericks.
Vogel was known for molding the Indiana Pacers into a team that the league in defense twice. Last year’s Lakers became defensive monsters when LeBron bought into the system, and they currently lead the league in defensive efficiency.
Never bet on a bad coach with superior talent to beat a good coach:
- Scott Brooks (2017 Wizards), Randy Wittman (2018 Bucks), and Brett Brown (2018 76ers) all fell victim to Brad Stevens’ young overachieving Celtics.
- Mike D’Antoni was unable to make the adjustments necessary to close the deal against the Warriors in 2018 and 2019.
- Mike Budenholzer failure to adjust and cost the Bucks a 2–0 series lead against the Raptors in 2019, followed by a total collapse against the Heat in 2020.
- And Doc Rivers, unable to make lineup adjustments or motivate his players, set an NBA record for blowing a 3–1 series lead for the third time in his career.
As the NBA has become more of a crap shoot dictated by the variance in a team’s three point shooting, coaching becomes even more important.
Here are my new six keys to contend for an NBA championship:
- Shoot at least league average on a high volume of 3-point shots (but don’t get crazy to the point you stop going to the rim).
- Play elite defense when it counts.
- Excel at attacking the paint in both the half court and in transition.
- Have a coach knows how to put his players in a position to win.
- Have one unstoppable, high efficiency superstar.
- Have one or more players who can slow down the other team’s superstar.
In 2019, only the Warriors and Raptors checked all of my original six boxes.
2020 was wide open as no team checked every box. The Clippers checked five out of six boxes, while the Lakers and Bucks checked four out of six boxes. But with the refinements I made to the boxes, the Lakers ended up checking five, while the Bucks and Clippers each dropped to four. (Miami, during their post season run with a super version of Jimmy Butler, checked five of the boxes.)
The rise of the Lakers’ physical blend of strength, size, and speed was the perfect counter to the Warriors system and the league noticed.
In the playoffs, they dominated Houston and Miami, the two teams that played the best small ball last season.
The NBA is a copycat league, so it’s not surprise that teams have tried to build a roster to meet the challenge of the LeBron-Davis duo.
The Clippers brought in Ibaka, Philadelphia signed Dwight Howard, Houston signed Christian Woods and Boogie Cousins, and Detroit brought in five centers.
Even the Lakers recognized their need to get a big physical center by signing Marc Gasol.
I started writing this article back in December, but there were too many variables to make complete predictions, including the progress of star players returning from injuries suffered last year, Covid-19 roster effects, rookies who hadn’t played basketball in nine months, and the short off season.
In part 2, I will analyze the Eastern Conference teams, and I can’t believe my own pick.
Thanks for reading!
