NBA 2022–2023 PREDICTIONS, PART 2

The NBA World Wants To Know Who Are These Guys?

Every year, the Los Angeles Lakers are the league’s biggest soap opera

In part 1 of my NBA 2022–2023 predictions, I explained my six box system to determine a champion and eliminate the teams that don’t have what it takes. Today, I have to devote an entire column on the biggest unknown this season — the Lakers’ ceiling.

When the Lakers started this season 2–10, half the NBA’s fans rejoiced. The problem is, the other half are Lakers fans.

The social media talking heads rejoiced because dumping on the Lakers leads to clicks. But the only thing they like better is for the Lakers to be good, because that leads to even more clicks.

During a recent game against the league-leading Boston Celtics Charles Barkley whined about all the Lakers coverage because they stink. Naturally, they went on a tear at the end of the third quarter and for most of the fourth quarter to erase a 20-point deficit and take a 13-point lead with under five minutes left in a game they somehow lost in overtime.

All is right with the NBA world because Lakers haters can troll and Lakers fans can hold on to their championship dreams.

Over the last 16 games, Lakers are three missed free throws* from having the best record in the NBA.

When the Lakers began to dig themselves out of that early season hole, the haters pointed out their better play was only happening because they won four games against the worst teams in the league.

After that, the dominated games against playoff contenders in Indiana and Portland and critics discounted those results because the Lakers choked against Indiana and Portland was missing their best player.

But a road win against the Milwaukee Bucks team at full strength was a warning shot fired over the rest of the league. They shredded Milwaukee’s #1 rated defense for 133 points. LeBron, Davis and Westbrook are the most powerful trio in the league, threatening the rim every second of a game and they scored a ridiculous 70 points in the paint.

After Anthony Davis got sick, the Lakers lost two games in a row. He came back the next game at Philadelphia. Despite three early fouls, Davis (31 pts, 12 reb, 0 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks, 3 turnovers, +/- plus-16) matched MVP candidate Joel Embiid (38 pts, 12 reb, 5 assists, 1 steals, 0 blocks, 7 turnovers, +/- plus-20) to lead the Lakers to a miraculous last minute comeback against Philadelphia that fell short in overtime.

The next big game was against league-leading Boston. The Lakers got down early because Boston hit six of their first eight 3-point shots. But then the Lakers exposed the Celtics weak ball handling and over-dependence on jump shots during a 31–5 run that brought back memories of the 2020 title team.

Last night, Anthony Davis got hurt (again) against Denver and it looked like the Lakers were cooked again. Instead, they ran Nikola Jokic into the ground and out of the gym, winning by 18 to prove once again that the Denver Nuggets are NBA fools gold.

But the Lakers are back. Let the sports talk games begin.

At this point what do we really know about the Lakers?

Here are the high (and low) lights:

• They are 4 games under .500, 12th in the West, and 1.5 games out of the play-in.
• They have blown two games where they had double digit leads in the last five minutes. That matches the total for the rest of the NBA combined.
• Due to injuries and a rookie head coach, they play comically bad lineups where 6'1" Patrick Beverley is the wing stopper who allows players like Jayson Tatum to score 40 points without working up a sweat. (Note: Tatum plays like an MVP whenever he is guarded by midgets and corpses. Just ask the Milwaukee Bucks without Khris Middleton.)
• They have wins over some of the best teams in each conference (Milwaukee, New Orleans, and twice against Denver).
• Over the last 16 games, the Lakers are #6 in offensive rating, #12 in defensive rating, and #4 in net rating with a point differential that projects to a 51.6 win team.
• Russell Westbrook looks like the 6th Man of the Year, and is helping the team win close games against good teams. I don’t know if this is sustainable or just a Christmas miracle, but he’s playing the best he has since his days at Oklahoma City with Kevin Durant. His athleticism is still breathtaking.

So are the Lake a good bad team with a tragically flawed roster? Are they a bad good team that hasn’t overcome all kinds of historically bad luck? Or are they a two-headed monster one trade away from ravaging the league?

The answer is yes.

As crazy as it sounds, the Lakers could win an NBA title —IF they can make the playoffs.

Are they title favorites? Of course not.

But they are the one team nobody wants to see in a seven-game playoff series if they are healthy.

Since November 1, Anthony Davis has been the best player in the league and it’s not particularly close: 32 points (#2), 13.7 rebounds (#1), 2.5 blocks (#2), while getting 10.8 free throws per game (#4). He is shoot 64.6% from the field (#4) and 84.5% from the line (#2). And he props up a bunch of Lilliputian guards to keep the defense hovering near the top 10.

The Lakers are a work in progress with a first-time coach trying to figure out how to optimize a roster that brought in 11 new players (if you count the fact that Kendrick Nunn did not play a single regular season game for the Lakers last year).

Compare that to the years of continuity for the core players of Golden State (11 years), Boston (6 years), Milwaukee (3 years), and Denver (3 years). Even the young Memphis core (Morant, Bane, Jackson Jr, Brooks, Clarke, Jones and Knochar) are playing their third season together.

Only LeBron, Davis, Westbrook, Austin Reaves and Wenyen Gabriel are left from last season. And only LeBron and Davis are left from the team that won a title in 2020.

The Lakers have been playing the rest of the league with one arm tied behind their back, and that short, stubby arm is Patrick Beverley.

We’ve played almost a third of the season, and NBA teams have put out 78 different 5-man lineups that have played at least 60 minutes together.

The Lakers’ most used lineup has played 59 minutes, featuring LeBron, Davis and three guards, Beverley (6'1"), Schroder (6'1"), and Lonnie Walker IV (6'4"). Maybe that lack of playing time is a blessing because they stink.

How bad do the other guys have to be to have a negative net rating (-1.5) when they are anchored by two MVP-level players?

But remove Beverley as the small forward who guards the other team’s best wing and the team looks interesting. Here are the net ratings for lineup combinations with LeBron, Davis and Schroder on the floor.

• Walker IV (6'4"), Troy Brown Jr. (6'6"): + 12.2
• Westbrook (6'3"), Reaves (6'5"): + 38.5
• Walker IV, Austin Reaves: + 45.3

Here are the net ratings when the smallest player next to LeBron and Davis is at least 6'3". And remember that Westbrook is the most physical in the league at his size.

• Westbrook, Brown Jr., and Reaves: +23.3
• Brown Jr., Reaves, and Walker IV: +87.1
• Westbrook, Brown Jr., and Walker IV: +93.6

Obviously, these are very small sample sizes, so those high net ratings are not sustainable. But it’s clear that when you complement two All-NBA level players with some size and defensive ability, the Lakers can compete with anyone.

With Westbrook leading the bench groups, the Lakers have one of the best benches among the contenders, trailing only the Clippers, Pelicans and Celtics in point differential (#7 overall at +4.1). They are #1 in assists.

The problem is they have a bottom 10 starting lineup (-6.1 point differential) because they lack a replacement-level small forward. Beverley can’t do it on either end of the court. And the other choices are still guards: Brown Jr., Reaves, Walker IV, and Westbrook. If the Lakers didn’t start every game down by double digits they might have some energy left at the end of the game.

Are the Lakers one trade away from being a contender?

There are two problems that need to be solved for the Lakers to have a real chance of winning a title.

1. The Lakers have to improve their defensive rebounding. They give up far too many second chance points on long offensive rebounds. That play has haunted them. Getting a forward who can defend and rebound would be a big step forward.
2. The coach has to bench Westbrook in crunch time when opponents “guard” him with a center who clogs up the paint. But they need a big wing who can shoot to spread the floor for LeBron and Davis.

Is there a player (or players) the Lakers can obtain by trading Beverley, Nunn and a first round draft pick? (They Lakers won’t give up both of the picks.)

I don’t know if it’s possible. Beverley and Nunn have little value on the court. They are expiring contracts and nothing more, unless some coach has the genius to unleash potential they haven’t shown as Lakers.

But all the other general managers in the league have seen the same thing as me. Even if they don’t want to admit it, they don’t want to give LeBron and Davis a player that could help the Lakers win another title. That’s the real effect of hated Lakers exceptionalism.

The help will have to come on the fringes, where maybe a player like Markieff Morris falls into the Lakers hands to address their weakness on the boards.

Or are the Lakers two trades away?

I never thought I would say this, but I enjoy watching Westbrook play this year, despite his obvious warts. When he’s bad, he can personally lose a tight game in a couple of possessions. But when he’s good, his hustle and desire remind me of when he was one of my favorite players at UCLA.

With the Lakers’ big three, they have one of the highest ceilings, but also one of the lowest floors. But I don’t see how they can get enough talent back without trading Westbrook and those picks.

If the Lakers part ways with Westbrook, the Lakers can acquire a superstar forward by trading for a center good enough to allow Davis to switch back to power forward. A center who can spread the floor on offense and then help dominate on the defensive boards would solve a lot of problems and help them get through the regular season.

Lakers hater Bill Simmons floated a trade with the Bulls in one of his podcasts. His idea of Demar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic for Westbrook and two first round draft picks probably came from the idea that this duo’s poor defense would sink the team. Simmons would never consciously help the Lakers.

But the truth is, this trade would make Lakers opponents feel like they are playing Milwaukee, if the Bucks had two Giannis-level players.

• DeRozan is an incredible crunch time midrange shooter who can create his own shot — just like Middleton.
• Vucevic is a fantastic offensive player who can spread the floor with his shooting — just like Brooke Lopez.
• With that kind of threat from beyond the arc and in the midrange, the paint would be open to attacks by LeBron and Davis.

The Lakers destroyed every perimeter defender in their recent win. The Bucks are either unathletic (Grayson Allen, Bobby Portis), too small (Pat Connaughton, Jevon Carter, Jrue Holiday) or reanimated corpses of formerly good NBA defenders (George Hill, Wesley Matthews).

If they can spread the floor in crunch time, the Lakers two superstars are an unstoppable force. On defense, Davis is a DPOY candidate once again. And for short spurts, LeBron can still play elite defense. Add a solid team defender like Reaves or Brown Jr. and teams will struggle to score in the paint. Then it becomes a question of 3-point roulette.

The Lakers play the same drop coverage on defense, just like the Bucks. And just like the Bucks, they give up a ton of open 3-pointers and pray the other team doesn’t get insanely hot for four out of seven games.

That’s how the Bucks lost to Miami in the 2020 playoffs and again to Boston in 2022. In the Lakers loss to Boston, they were -33 in 3-point shots and barely lost in overtime. It’s a gamble that a lot of teams would be willing to take if it means they have a chance to win a title.

With the right trade, the Lakers could have a puncher’s chance to make the Finals.

But having a puncher’s chance is kind of like thinking Rocky was going to win that first fight against Apollo Creed. Just going the distance would be an unbelievable storybook ending for the league.

But there are so many ifs.

• LeBron and Davis have to stay healthy throughout the playoffs.
• Westbrook has to play within himself (if he stays) or they need to swing a trade that will give their front court the size and depth needed to defend and rebound like a champion with him on the bench in crunch time.
• The coach needs to deal with playoff pressure decisions that could sink the chances of more talented teams (just look at Philadelphia under Brett Brown and Doc Rivers).
• The other role players have to shoot like normal NBA players from deep (that 2–10 start was mostly caused by historically bad 3-point shooting).
• LeBron James needs to adjust his game to his current physical condition. He may be the greatest ever to play at an elite level at his age, but he is clearly not the player he was in the 2020 title year. LeBron is still averaging 26.7/8.6/6.3 despite one of the worst shooting seasons of his career. His lateral movement is not good, either due to age or injury. And he doesn’t have the burst to beat players off the dribble when the defense is set. He over dribbles in iso and launches way too many bad fall away 3-pointer. That’s why the Lakers’ crunch time offense is in the bottom 5. If he accepts the role of becoming a finisher and moves without the ball, he is still an elite offensive force as he demonstrated against Denver.

The highest rated playoff game in recent memory was the Lakers-Warriors play-in game two years ago.

Tell me the NBA doesn’t want those kind of ratings for what could be LeBron’s last viable year as an MVP-level player.

In part 3, I will analyze the teams that have a shot to win a title.

Thanks for reading.

FOOTNOTES

*Here are missed free throws that pulled defeat out of the jaws of victory:

• Indiana — Davis missed a free throw that would have given the Lakers a 3-point lead in a game they lost by one on a buzzer beating 3-point shot.
• Philadelphia — Davis missed his second free throw that would have put the Lakers up by one with 3.2 seconds left. The 76ers did not have any timeouts to advance the ball, so they would have needed a miracle shot from distance to win.
• Boston — Davis missed both free throws that would have given the Lakers a 4-point lead with 28 seconds left.

The Lakers blew big 4th quarter leads against Indiana and Boston, while Philadelphia almost returned the favor. If they win the games they led, their record would be 12–4 (.750), the best record in the NBA since November 13.