2018-19 NBA Betting Guide: Everything You Need to Dominate Vegas

MVP and Rookie of the Year picks, league leaders, and all the best player props for the new NBA season

The NBA season is finally here, and that means it’s time to get all your season-long NBA bets in before the games tip off. We already covered all the team over/unders. Now it’s time to dig into the individual stats. Who will lead the league in scoring or rebounding? Who wins Rookie of the Year or MVP, and what about all the individual player props?

Well, first of all, how’d we do on last year’s season-long props? I nailed Ben Simmons as Rookie of the Year and Rudy Gobert as DPOY, struck gold picking the Pacers to make the playoffs at +400, and hit the jackpot on the Raptors with +525 to win the division and Dwane Casey +3000 as Coach of the Year. Playing our big bets at $100 each and the smaller props at $25, we would’ve invested $2000 last fall and left with $3425. That’s a tidy 71% winning margin, with the big Raptors winnings making up a third of the profits.

A little bit of math and history can point us in the right direction. So let’s dig into the numbers and pick some winners. All odds are provided by Bovada…

Most Valuable Player

I already wrote a whole piece previewing the MVP race in August, and my feelings haven’t changed. The Warriors won’t care enough to try, and the MVP race is all messy because the two best teams are so loaded and well-balanced that there isn’t a real MVP candidate. Almost every MVP comes from a top 2- or 3-seed, so I don’t buy Anthony Davis as the favorite everyone thinks he is, and that knocks out guys like Dame, KAT, etc too. Harden should have a deserving enough case but voter fatigue will look elsewhere.

If you’re looking for a long shot, I like Ben Simmons or DeMar DeRozan. Simmons is the real MVP candidate on Philly and is one jump shot away from combining all-defense with doing anything he wants on offense. And if the Spurs somehow win 50+ games with this roster, someone is going to have to get credit, so why not the leading scorer instead of the savant coach?

To me, this is a three-man race between LeBron, Kawhi, and Giannis. I think Antetokounmpo will have the best stats and get into the race for real, but I don’t buy the Bucks as a top-3 seed and don’t think he can get there without it. I don’t buy the Lakers as a top-3 seed either, but if LeBron improves the Lakers by 10+ wins while the Cavs win 15 or 20 fewer, people will certainly make the (always deserving) case. My pick is Kawhi Leonard. He’s got narrative on his side, he’s due, and the Raptors could have the best record in the league with him as the leading scorer and focal point of a nasty defense.

Best bet: Kawhi Leonard +950 Best long shot: Ben Simmons +2500

Rookie of the Year

This is a deep and talented rookie class, but I’m not sure it’s going to be a super impactful one right away, certainly not like last year spoiled us. There is no Ben Simmons this year, and I don’t see a Spida Mitchell either. The best chance might be Luka Doncic, who is the best rookie by miles and miles. Unfortunately for him, Dallas isn’t going to be very good, and ROY is always about numbers, not best player. Luka’s 12 points, 6 boards, and 5 assists will help his team, but they might not impress voters.

I actually think DeAndre Ayton is a sizable favorite for ROY — no pun intended. Ayton is going to get a lot of minutes for a high-tempo team and should get a ton of rebounding chances (we’ll get back to that) and plenty of chances to score. I’m not sold on Ayton as a great NBA player yet, but I am sold on his ability to be a huge human whose rebounding will translate and who will be given every chance to score. Rookie of the Year almost always goes to the guy with the most points plus rebounds plus assists per game, and Ayton should score 15ppg and hit 12rpg with ease, even if he doesn’t contribute to winning basketball yet.

It’s hard to pick out someone else to even contend with Doncic or Ayton. Sexton won’t get enough minutes and won’t be good as a rookie point. Bagley will be playing out of position for an incompetent franchise. Jackson and Carter should be good defenders, but that won’t win votes. Bamba may struggle to find playing time. Knox will some big scoring games for the Knicks, so he could be in the mix just on name brand. Trae Young will probably be awful for the Hawks this year but should get a lot of points and assists. He’s my best long shot pick just on counting numbers.

Best bet: DeAndre Ayton +375 Best long shot: Trae Young +1100

Scoring Champion

The magic number to lead the league in scoring is typically around 30ppg the last few years, and you’ve gotta hit 28 to even have a chance. That narrows this field pretty quickly. It’s hard to see a big man leading the league in scoring in the modern NBA. Anthony Davis averaged over 30ppg without DeMarcus Cousins last year, but I don’t buy him producing at that rate all season while banging inside as a center. The Warriors guys have the talent but probably won’t have the opportunity or desire.

James Harden is the favorite here, and a deserving one. He’s been at 29ppg or better three years running, so it’s his crown for the taking. But I think Giannis Antetokounmpo could take it. Giannis finished fifth in ppg last year and has seen his scoring increase by at least 4ppg every season. In Milwaukee’s new faster tempo, he should get more chances to score and a greener light to shoot, and 30ppg is absolutely within the realm of possibility. I like Giannis to edge Harden for the win.

I don’t mind the odds on Kawhi or KAT. Leonard was at 25.5ppg his last healthy season. Can he get back there again, then increase another 15–20% despite a deeper and more talented team around him? Probably not. The better bet is Towns, especially with the upside of a more motivated Towns suddenly leading the team in shots with a new coach and a particular pissant teammate off the roster soon enough.

Best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo +700 Best long shot: Karl-Anthony Towns +2500

Assists Leader

I don’t love the odds here. Wall and Westbrook are the favorites and should be, based on the numbers history. They’re the only two guys with a realistic shot at threatening double-digit assists, but I don’t like the odds on either. Both have injury issues and, if anything, could both underachieve and blow this assists race wide open. James Harden looks next most likely. His odds should not be lower than CP3, and you know the Rockets will score.

One shocking omission from the list? LeBron James. LeBron was third in the NBA with 9.1apg last year! Sure he’s going to share the ball with Lonzo and Rondo now, but aren’t we embracing an off-ball LeBron that’s going to focus on setting his teammates up and taking the strain off his body? What if LeBron decides he wants to lead the league in assists or average a triple-double? He could do that with ease, right? I found LeBron at 50–1 odds. I’ll take that bet.

Best bet: pass, but James Harden +750 among the options Best long shot: LeBron James +5000

Rebounds Leader

The thing about the rebounding crown is that it takes a lot of rebounds to win it. Drummond and Jordan were both over 15rpg last year and they’re the deserving favorites here. I’d take a hypothetical Drummond or Jordan versus the field for the rebounding title. Drummond’s rpg actually went up with Blake, and Jordan could have an increased role in Dallas.

If anyone else is going to even get close, it’s going to take at least 14rpg. I see three guys with a realistic path. Clint Capela had 10.8rpg last year in just 27.5mpg, and his minutes have increased each year. That same rate over 33 minutes would give him 13rpg, but that’s still not enough and there’s no reason to think he’ll play that much anyway. Kevin Love has averaged 10rpg as a Cavalier, but he’s posted these sort of audacious rebounding numbers before. He’s see a significant minutes increase, and let’s just stay there will be many more rebounding opportunities in Cleveland this year.

But my favorite here is the rookie DeAndre Ayton. Tyson Chandler averaged 11.5rpg in 27.6mpg two seasons ago for the Suns, which would pace to 14+ in 34 minutes, and Alex Len and Alan Williams have not been far off the pace at their rebounding rates. The Suns play one of the fastest paces in the league and miss a lot of shots. Ayton’s size and rebounding are the most certain thing about him to translate as a prospect. He’s definitely going to rebound, and he should get every opportunity to stay on the court and play big minutes. Ayton also has shown a propensity to rack up garbage-time numbers, and he could meaningless minutes in blowout fourth-quarter losses against backup big men. Mutombo, Hakeem, and Robinson all averaged 12rpg as rookies, and Shaq hit 13.9. Ayton is none of those guys, but his body is physically comparable and he should finish in that range. All the more reason to like that Rookie of the Year bet, too.

Best bet: DeAndre Ayton +2500 Best long shot: Kevin Love +2500

Five Winning Team Props

1. Detroit Pistons to miss the playoffs +155

Boston, Toronto, and Philly are playoff locks. Milwaukee, Washington, Indiana, and Miami are significantly more talented and deeper than the rest of the East. That leaves only one playoff spot for the dregs of the East, and the Pistons are next in line. But what if the Cavs or Nets are good? What if Blake or Reggie Jackson misses a chunk of time? What if the Hornets keep Kemba and compete? They’re my pick, by the way, but at +105 odds to make the playoffs, I’d rather play Charlotte’s over 33.5 and these Pistons odds to miss.

2. Miami Heat to win the division +150

Washington is the division favorite, but isn’t Miami just as good? The Wizards won 43, 49, and 41 games the last three years; the Heat 44, 41, and 48. The Heat have a huge edge in coaching, chemistry, and depth, and that’s even without them trading for Jimmy Butler. Flip Richardson for Butler and I think the Heat go to -200. This division is wide open, and it’s easy to envision the Wizards falling apart and leaving the Hornets, Magic, and Hawks standing in the way of a Heat division title. Forty wins could be enough.

3. Los Angeles Clippers to make the playoffs +400

The dirty little secret of the NBA this season is that the vaunted middle of the West is softer than everyone’s making it out to be. I have the Warriors, Rockets, Jazz, Thunder, Nuggets, and Lakers as strong picks to make the playoffs — though you can build a path for any of the last four to miss — and that leaves two spots for the Blazers, Spurs, Pelicans, Clippers, and Wolves. I don’t love the Spurs talent, Pelicans depth, Blazers versatility, or Wolves anything. The Clippers are deep and versatile, and this is the sort of team Doc Rivers maximizes. They won 42 games last year with duct tape and pixie dust, and now they add LRMAM, Gilgeous-Alexander, Beverley, Bradley, and healthier Gallinari and Teodosic. These odds are just much too high.

4. New Orleans Pelicans to miss the playoffs +155

A lot of smart guys are on the other side of this, but I’m uncomfortable with how much New Orleans will rely on Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis after each just had career years and played the most games in their careers. The Pels still don’t have much on the wing, and the loss of Rondo will be felt. If they lose Jrue or Brow for even a month, the season could crater. The Pels were one of my over/under best bets, but these odds are even better.

5. Toronto Raptors to win the division +200

Boston, Toronto, and Philly are all in the same division, so this is basically a pick for best record in the East. I don’t see Philly as strongly in the mix, and I think Toronto is just as deep and just as strong defensively. Boston and Toronto look closer to a coin-flip, so give me the +200.

6. Minnesota Timberwolves to win the division +1200

I am extremely out on all things Wolves this season. This Jimmy Butler thing went south in a hurry, and Thibs is past his expiration date. But IF they keep both and somehow this lights a fire under the whole team, couldn’t they win the division? The Jazz, Thunder, Pelicans, and Blazers make things tough, but isn’t a hypothetical team with Butler and a motivated KAT and Wiggins just as talented as those? Pretend this same Wolves roster had positive preseason vibes. Would they be like +300 to win the division? +200? It’s worth a shot.

10 Player Prop Locks

1. DeAndre Ayton over 9.5rpg

See Rebounds Leader above. This is free money. Put a 10x bet on this one.

2. Spencer Dinwiddie over 8.5ppg

Dinwiddie is the best player on the Nets and one piece they seem determined to keep and build around going forward. He averaged 12.6ppg last year and was still at 11.9 once D’Angelo Russell came back, so this is a weirdly low line.

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo over 26.5ppg

See Scoring Champion above. Giannis has looked even bigger and faster this preseason. The upward trajectory should continue.

4. Chandler Parsons under 52.5 games

Parsons played 36 and 34 games his last two seasons. Listen, if Chandler Parsons is going to get paid to do nothing in Memphis, we might as well too.

5. Carmelo Anthony under 15.5ppg

Melo dropped to 16.2ppg in 32mpg, both the lowest of his career. Anthony’s minutes load will drop even further in Houston, and he’ll have far less of a green light and could be a bit player against some opponents.

6. Tim Hardaway Jr. over 16.5ppg

Someone’s gotta score points for the Knicks, right? We hit our THJ over last year as he put up 17.5ppg, and that number jumped to 19ppg in March and April without Porzingis. I’m betting against KP doing much this year, so that makes THJ the Knicks scoring leader.

7. Luka Doncic over 5rpg

Doncic averaged 5.2 rebounds in 25 minutes of Euro ball last year playing guard. Doncic is an intuitive rebounder with good size and should be playing more minutes and up a position or two, so that should help offset the physicality difference and send him over 5rpg pretty easily.

8. Aaron Gordon over 16.5ppg

Gordon scored 17.6ppg last year, and he was at almost 19ppg through December before injuries ruined the back half of his season. Remarkably, he’s just turned 23 so he’s still just figuring things out, and now that he’s healthy, he should be back on track.

9. Jarrett Allen over 6rpg

Allen averaged 5.4rpg in 20 minutes last year, and those numbers jumped over 6 once his minutes increased post-All-Star break. He’s bulked up over the summer and should only improve going forward.

10. Lonzo Ball over 31.5% three-point percentage

Yes, this is a real prop. Lonzo shot 41% from behind the college arc, and he made 33.2% of his NBA threes from December forward. He’s also going to get better looks on this year’s team. This is a stupidly low number.

15 More Player Props for the Addicts

1. Nic Batum over 5.5apg

Batum’s had at least 5.5apg all three years in Charlotte, and the Hornets are increasing tempo this year. He could handle the ball even more if Kemba gets traded, which offsets the risk of Tony Parker (yep, still weird) taking handling duties away.

2. Malik Monk over 9.5ppg

Monk was hurt much of his rookie season but still scored 6.7ppg in only 13.6mpg. At that pace, he only has to play 19 minutes a game to hit this number. If the Hornets are in contention, that could be a problem, but it could just as well go the other way if they sell Kemba and tank.

3. Enes Kanter over 10.5ppg

Kanter was at 12.7rpg in February and March without Porzingis, and I don’t expect a lot of KP this year. The risk is Mitchell Robinson cutting into his playing time late in a tanking season, but he should have a cushion.

4. Jimmy Butler under 27.5 games for Minnesota 5. Andrew Wiggins over 19.5ppg 6. Karl-Anthony Towns over 23.5ppg

Come on, this Butler thing is not going to end well for the Wolves. Do you really think he’s going to be on the roster at the start of 2019? Wiggins and Towns averaged 23.6 and 25.1ppg in 2016–17, before Butler arrived. Exit Butler, one way or another, and these bets all look pretty good.

7. Lonzo Ball over 1.5 triple doubles

Ball had two last year in 52 games, and that was while he couldn’t shoot or score the ball. He’ll get easier points this year, he rebounds a lot, and there will be big assist nights.

8. Gordon Hayward under 18.5ppg 9. Jaylen Brown under 13.5ppg

The Celtics only have so many shots to go around. Hayward scored 19, 20, and 22ppg his last three seasons in Utah but he’s a likely candidate to shoot a little less in Boston, plus it’s still a long way back to full health after that nasty break. Brown scored 14.5ppg last year but is the most obvious candidate to do that fifth-man dirty work and cut back his scoring in a big way.

10. Kyle Korver under 44.5% three-point percentage

No knock on Korver’s shooting ability, but 44.5% is quite a mark. Korver has gone under that number in 11 of 16 seasons, and he won’t have LeBron’s gravity or passing this year.

11. LeBron James over 7.5apg 12. Anthony Davis under 29ppg

See above. This column is long enough.

13. Josh Hart over 7ppg

Hart scored 7.9ppg in 23mpg last year, and I remain convinced that he’s just about the perfect sort of role player to play next to LeBron. If the minutes are there, the scoring will be too.

14. DeAaron Fox over 5apg

Fox was at 4.6apg post-All-Star Break once George Hill was gone, and the Kings played the league’s slowest pace last year. That may not change because KANGZ but they can’t exactly get slower.

15. Russell Westbrook under 23.5 triple doubles

This line means Westbrook has to have at least the sixth most triple doubles in NBA history. I bet against him doing it last year and he hit the over with 27, but this year he’s already hurt to start the season, and now he has an actual backup and secondary handler in Dennis Schroder.

The NBA is back! Let’s do this!!!

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