The Best NBA Over/Under Bets for the 2018-19 Season

Betting picks for every NBA team, and why the Raptors, Knicks, Suns, and Pelicans could be this year’s best bets

The 2018–19 NBA regular season is just one week away, and it’s time to make some money. Las Vegas has released its annual over/under betting lines, with the Golden State Warriors and Boston Celtics leading their conferences at 63.5 and 59 projected wins, while the Atlanta Hawks bring up the rear at just 23.5 wins.

Vegas is not necessarily predicting the number of wins for these teams. They’re trying to make money, which can often mean over- or under-inflated lines to induce betting on one side. Finding the right bet means considering the full range of outcomes for each team. It’s easy to imagine best- and worst-case scenarios, but what’s the median or most likely outcome? It’s important too to consider incentives. Will teams try to tank to keep a pick late? Will they push to make the playoffs or improve a seed? Those little differences can swing a close line.

Last year’s over/under bets went 18–12 overall, a healthy 60% hit rate. Our recommended bets were 8–5, and our best bets were 3–2. That’s a healthy 60% win rate at every level. If you had invested $25 each on the stay-aways, $100 on the plays, and $250 on the best bets, you’d have invested $2475 and won $3100 on the season. Not bad!

Let’s see if we can do even better with this year’s lines. We’ll eliminate about half the field first as gambling stay-aways before zoning in on the playable bets and the five best bets on the board. The East looks more playable on the whole, while the middle of the West is a danger spot for many bets. Let’s go!

Slight Over— Stay Away

Orlando 30.5 Cleveland 30.5

The gap between the East and the West is bigger than ever, and these teams could find themselves on the edge of a playoff race midway through the season because of it. Orlando is young and intriguing but it’s a year or two early and Steve Clifford can only do so much so fast with this D. Cleveland should be terrible but seems intent on trying to win. Their pick is top-10 protected so they may tank late.

Memphis 33.5

Truth be told, the Grizzlies over grades out as one of my five best bets by actual expectations. I have them near .500 and in the playoff race until the final days. The problem is Memphis has such a huge array of possible outcomes, and I think I’m on the high end. Even with a relatively healthy Grizz team, they won 42 and 43 the two years before last. Now Gasol and Conley are even older, and while I love Jaren Jackson Jr., he may not be ready. And then there’s the biggest problem — the very real chance this team tanks the back half after trading away Conley and/or Gasol. Memphis’s pick is top-8 protected this year, and they’d need to top out around 30–32 wins to keep it. If Conley or Gasol get hurt early, or if the team struggles out of the gates, it’s way too easy to see them blow this thing up. This is a range of outcomes problem, as Memphis could win something like 20 to 45 games. Stay away.

Washington 45.5 Denver 47.5

These teams mirror each other. The Wizards won 43 last year with a lost season from John Wall, and the bench is much improved, finally. Washington’s trio is in its prime and this team should be hosting a playoff series this year, but the rampant chemistry and injuries issues leave too wide a range of outcomes. Denver won 46 last year without getting much from Paul Millsap, and Isaiah Thomas is a huge improvement over the league’s worst backup PG situation. Denver is a safe playoff bet, but where they land in the 45–50 win range will be shaky, and they could look to avoid the 4- and 5- seed range late to avoid the Warriors. Both these teams should move from the edge of the playoffs to the edge of home court in the first-round with better health and depth, but their lines look just about right.

Boston 59

The Celtics should be awesome. They add 20 more games of Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart, and Marcus Morris plus an entire season of Gordon Hayward to a team that already won 55 last year, and they should play hard all season since home court advantage in the East is so important. The 1-seed in the East is huge because of home court and because two of Boston, Toronto, and Philly have to play each other in the second round while one of them waits. Add in Boston’s defense and coaching and everything looks good. So why stay away? Because 60 wins is a lot of wins to bank on, no matter how good a team is.

Slight Under— Stay Away

Brooklyn 32 Dallas 35

The Nets are another East team that could hang around the playoff picture, or they could lose games since they own their pick for the first time in like three decades. Dallas traded its pick with top-5 protections, and this team won’t be near the bottom five in record so that shouldn’t matter. The Mavericks should be far better than last year, and readers know I’m a Luka Doncic believer, but Dallas just isn’t talented or deep enough to matter in the West. All the ball handling in Dallas will be done by 19- and 20-year-olds, and that’s tough to overcome even with an awesome coach and a lot of positive regression signs.

Indiana 48 Oklahoma City 48.5

The Pacers won 48 last year and added to their bench, and the young players should keep improving, but improvement isn’t linear. Indiana outperformed its metrics last year, but a very deep roster should steal some games and keep them near enough this 48-win total to stay away. The OKC under hurts. A healthy Oklahoma City might have contended for the West 2-seed. This team got negative contributions from Melo (to say the least) and started slow out of the gates, underperforming with a bunch of close losses. Healthy OKC will have a dangerous defense and a better balanced offense without Melo around. Unfortunately we don’t know how healthy Westbrook’s knee is, and now the Thunder have an Andre Roberson setback too. The Thunder haven’t hit 49 wins without Kevin Durant, and the injuries make the under more likely.

Los Angeles Lakers 48.5

Last year’s Cavs performed like a 43-win team but way overachieved by winning a ton of close games, got a full 82 games from LeBron with a better roster than this one against a weaker schedule, and still barely covered this line with 50 wins. These Lakers have a wonky bench and a bunch of young talents that aren’t there yet. This surely isn’t the roster we’ll see in April with a trade and a couple buy-outs surely on the way, and this team may not push for every last win since a 6- or 7-seed is probably just fine when you have LeBron. All signs point under or way under, but bet against LeBron at your own peril.

Philadelphia 54 Golden State 63.5

The 76ers jumped from 28 to 52 wins and get another year of development from Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. They also add the complete wildcard that is Markelle Fultz, and it seems they intend to start him. That could mean some growing pains as the team finds its way early, and it feels like there could be a slight step back for Ben Simmons as defenses learn and adjust. I’m also worried about a tired team after the China trip. Still, this defense should keep them in any game, and there’s 60-win potential, and what fun is betting a Sixers under? Stay away. And stay away from the Warriors, whose winning intentions are unknown. Golden State won 67, 67, and 73 before last year’s 58, but they may not need to get to 64 to secure the West 1-seed and might not care if they do anyway. You don’t want money on a team with no incentive.

Safely Under — Solid Bets

Atlanta 23.5 Sacramento 26 Chicago 29.5

Let’s keep this easy: these are three of the five worst teams in the NBA, and the other two are best bets. I expect Atlanta to turn over the entire season to Trae Young and let him bomb away and learn. That’ll be great long-term but they’re going to be really bad in the interim. The Kings should be terrible too, though they don’t have their pick so they could get some annoying wins late while other teams are tanking. A lot of NBA experts seem to think Chicago is young and fun, and neither of those is particularly true. The Bulls could have the worst defense in the league, and they should be in tank mode once they realize what the rest of us already know: they stink.

Minnesota 41.5 San Antonio 45.5

I don’t believe Jimmy Butler plays another game for the Timberwolves, and I don’t think they win half their games if he doesn’t. Hopefully they find the right trade. I almost talked myself into the Spurs again, but the Dejounte Murray injury knocked some sense into me. San Antonio is now without its four best defenders from the third best defense. I don’t see any plus defenders unless they start Jakob Poeltl. The offense ranked #17 despite a surge from LaMarcus Aldridge. All the key players on this team are old and should be getting worse. If it weren’t for the name on the jersey and the coach, we’d see this team for what it is — a bottom five roster in the West with an outdated system. Maybe Pop does enough to stick around for a push toward the 8-seed, but would anyone be surprised to see this roster produce a top-10 pick?

Milwaukee 48.5

This was one of the most shocking lines for me for a team that continues to underachieve each season. The Bucks haven’t won 48 games since 2001, and this starting lineup was pretty healthy last year. Does Giannis have another step forward to take? I’m not sure he and Middleton can do much more and just don’t see a ton of upside in this roster that wasn’t already tapped. So it’s all going to have to come down to coaching, where Mike Budenholzer replaces Jason Kidd in a massive upgrade. I love Bud and Giannis, enough to keep this under out of my best bets, but Milwaukee’s going to have to prove it before I’ll believe it now.

Safely Over — Solid Bets

Charlotte 33.5

I actually have the Hornets way over this line and in the East playoff mix. It’s a relatively deep roster that fits together, and the new coaching staff should have this team running and gunning. The Hornets won 36 each of the past two years even with all the injuries, and Tony Parker adds badly needed PG depth to a team that was atrocious without Kemba Walker. I look at this team and I see Indiana a year ago, a team I thought could surprise many in a weak East. The problem is Indiana didn’t have a blow-it-up option, and Charlotte should have every incentive to trade Kemba. I’m not sure they will, especially if they’re in a playoff hunt, but that’s too much variance for me.

Detroit 38.5 Portland 41.5 Miami 42.5

Detroit won 37 and 39 the last two years and should be on the cusp of the playoffs again, but they have every desire to push for the playoffs and should get more from Blake Griffin and Reggie Jackson. Both these teams should hang around all year. Portland’s line is wonky. They’ve finished .500 or better five straight seasons and were at 49 wins last year with mostly the same roster. I’m a bit worried about health and depth here but Dame and C.J. typically stay healthy and, if they do, they’ll win 42. The Heat line doesn’t make much sense either. Miami averaged 42.5 wins the last two years and brings roster continuity, depth, and coaching. They should make the playoffs easily and will do even more if the Jimmy Butler deal is ever consummated.

Utah 49.5 Houston 55.5

These look like the best non-Warriors teams out West, but I don’t expect either of them to be close enough to challenge Golden State, so there may not be a ton of incentive to pile up wins late. Still, Utah won 48 last year despite missing Gobert for a third of the season and relying on a rookie to lead them in scoring. This year’s team is healthier and deeper, and Donovan Mitchell should keep getting better. Houston feels like a worse playoff team with their losses on the wing, but they should be fine in the regular season. Is Trevor Ariza’s loss really going to cost them 10 wins? This line is an overreaction.

Best Bets

Toronto 55.5 — Over

The Raptors over is easily my favorite bet on the board. I don’t know what people are missing on Toronto. The Raps won 59 games last year with a deep and talented team, and now they return most of the same roster but replace DeRozan and Poeltl with Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard. What’s not to like? This team may take a minute to gel, but they have a lot of versatile lineup combinations and should be a nasty defensive team. They kept their better guard and added my MVP favorite. Some seem afraid of the coaching change, and we don’t know much about Nick Nurse, but how many of us thought Dwane Casey was doing a great job anyway? I think the Raptors could finish with the best record in the NBA. They have every incentive to push for the East 1-seed and make Kawhi feel right at home in Toronto.

New York 29.5 — Under

God bless the Knicks and their public line. This roster is absolutely terrible. Kristaps Porzingis won’t play for a big chunk of the season, and he probably won’t be great for the part he does play while still recovering from the ACL tear. New York doesn’t have any other player on the roster that would start for a playoff team. I like the young pieces in Kevin Knox, Frank Ntilikina, and Mitchell Robinson, and frankly, I like the Knicks losing a lot this year and securing a top-5 pick and one last big time talent before a free agent push. The roster is so bad they probably can’t even get accidentally hot early and stupidly trade away their pick for Kemba Walker or someone to give them a faux playoff push. And I’m honestly not sure they’d win 30 even if they did.

New Orleans 45.5 — Under

Somehow I always seem to pick against the Pelicans, and that’s a bummer because I love Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday. But New Orleans overachieved its underlying metrics last year by four wins thanks to a run-and-gun offense that surprised some teams and got hot late against a soft schedule during the playoff push. Now Davis and Holiday are both coming off significant career highs in games and minutes, and that doesn’t bode well for two guys whose bodies have struggled to hold up over their careers. Elfrid Payton is a big downgrade from Rondo at point, and the bench is still paper thin and can’t overcome an injury or downswing from the two stars. I think this Pelicans roster hit the high end of its range of outcomes last season. I’ve got their median outcome around .500, and I think they’re more likely to miss the playoffs than make it. There’s just a lot that can go wrong here.

Phoenix 29.5 — Under

Like the Knicks, the Suns cast a bit of doubt on these under bets just because they seem so hellbent on winning. But there’s a difference between wanting to win and having the talent to do it. The Suns are the second worst roster in a deep, loaded West, and they’ve won 21, 23, and 24 games the last three years. They’ll rely on a coach that’s never been in the NBA, a rookie center to anchor the defense, and young point guards to run the offense. That’s a recipe for disaster. I know Phoenix wants to be good, but I don’t buy it yet. The roster is too young and these guys don’t play D and just aren’t good yet.

Los Angeles Clippers 37.5 — Over

The Clippers have about 15 useful players, but a lot of the key guys are injury-prone and there’s no clear rotation or star. That’s just about perfect for Doc Rivers, who always overachieves with rosters like this. Rivers has finished .500 or better in 16 of 19 seasons as a head coach, and he somehow did it last year despite a mess of a roster and a litany of injuries. The Clips got almost nothing from Danilo Gallinari last year, nor from Avery Bradley or any of the point guards. I think the Clips are a sneaky playoff contender.

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