Brandon Anderson’s 2018 NBA Draft Big Board Manifesto

Trae Young is awesome, DeAndre Ayton shouldn’t go anywhere near #1, and everything else you need to know about every key 2018 NBA Draft prospect

The 2018 NBA Draft is finally here, and it promises to be a wild night. We already know the #1 pick, and it’s not the international star the Suns’ coach led in Slovenia. The Kings pick second and could take literally anyone (just ask Georgios Papagiannis). A bunch of other dumb teams litter the top of the draft, and just about every team has been rumored to trade up, down, or both. Meanwhile Kawhi Leonard could be on the move, and Hall of Farter Dwight Howard was quietly traded for the second straight draft week. All hail the NBA offseason.

This year’s draft class is loaded, with four possible superstars at the top and another handful of guys other draftniks love. It’s a deep draft, especially on the wings. But enough preamble. Below is my official 2018 NBA Draft Big Board Manifesto with roughly 10,000 words of analysis on my top 34 players, all broken into tiers. Scan for a player you like, read up on guys you don’t know much about, or just devour it all. It’s all there, and it’s all guaranteed to be correct in five years or your money back.

Godspeed.

If you’re reading this late on, here’s my 2018 NBA Draft winners and losers…

Some Notes on Methodology

Feel free to skip this section if you just want to get to the good stuff. Just wanted to let you in on the thought process.

• I place a huge emphasis on fit in the modern NBA. Big men roles have changed. Athletic wings are more important than ever. Everyone needs to be skilled and smart, and versatility reigns. Players need to do more than score, and they need to score efficiently. Prospects that might have been great a decade ago may be marginalized now. If I can’t imagine a player fitting a role on a good winning team in the modern NBA, I’m probably not going to be a fan.
• Defense matters a ton. If you can’t play defense, you don’t get to play when games really matter.
• Athleticism is a huge X-factor and a great tiebreaker. Athleticism overcomes a lot of shortcomings.
• Versatility is big. The modern NBA isn’t about pigeon-holing a guy into a tiny fit. Now it’s players that can fit many roles who are valuable, guys that can defend multiple positions and switch on defense. The worst defender on the court needs to be at least passable on a switch, and the best defenders can guard three or more positions.
• Shooting matters a lot. If you can’t shoot, teams don’t have to defend you. But it’s also hard to measure. Elite shooting translates, but poor shooters can develop later. Every player has a shooting gravity. You either expand the area the defense has to cover or you shrink it.
• Size matters, but height matters less than wingspan and standing reach. I did a study similar to the one I did for Seth's Draft House last year and analyzed what that means for this year’s prospects, especially defensively.
• Some skills can be learned —like shooting and defensive awareness — while others are innate. Size and athleticism can’t be taught. Neither can basketball IQ, which can make up a lot of athleticism ground.
• Position matters, so pay attention to how I list them. For some prospects like Doncic and Shai, they maximize their value by playing a particular position. Positional versatility also matters. Wings can often play two or three spots in the lineup. That means more ways to find value on the court.
• Upside matters a lot. Early in the draft, upside is key. One awesome player matters more in the NBA than any other sport, and teams near the top typically don’t have a marquee guy so they should probably take a swing if one is there. I typically rank the highest upside guys at the top of their tiers too. You win in the NBA first and foremost because of superstars, so any swing at a possible superstar is probably a good one.
• Median outcome also matters. Very few players in the draft will hit their upside. That’s the top 10% outcome, and it’s irresponsible to draft with only that in mind. It’s also irresponsible to think of only the worst 10%. What happens during the 80% in the middle? If a player never fixes that one glaring weakness, is he still valuable?
• Team building matters a lot. For a few guys like Jaren Jackson Jr. and Mikal Bridges, I note that they’d be valuable on every NBA team. Teams drafting near the top should try to leave themselves as many avenues as possible, not pigeon-hole themselves into specific needs around a limited player. Drafting Doncic, JJJ, or Mikal means every name on the draft board is still an option next year.
• I’m a wisdom of crowds guy. I trust my analysis but other people have spent a ton of time on all this and I trust them, too. If there’s someone my gut doesn’t like but a lot of other smart people do, I probably tried to reconsider them or at least left the player fairly high on my board. If a ton of smart people spend time analyzing and all come to a similar conclusion, it’s probably more reliable than my own offerings. With that in mind, a thanks and a shout to a bunch of people you should also read and consume for NBA Draft content: Cole Zwicker, Jonathan Tjarks, Jackson Hoy, Jonathan Givony, JZ Mazlish, Nate Duncan, Danny Leroux, Sean Derenthal, Kevin O'Connor, The Flagrant 2, Michael Margolis, Jake Paynting, Evan Zamir, plus Mike Gribanov, Ben Rubin, everyone else at The Stepien, and a number of other folks not on Medium.
• I’m not as good of a game tape analyst as others. I rely on a lot of those guys above to help me see things I would’ve missed or just didn’t have time to get to. My strengths lie more in big picture stuff, analyzing team building, and zooming out to see how a player fits into the modern NBA. That’s the sort of stuff I focus on.
• The tiers are the cut-offs between clusters. In general, you shouldn’t dip into the next tier down, but the names within a tier can move around (and have during the course of my preparation). The further down the board, the more acceptable to reach into a lower tier, especially if it’s for a higher-risk upside guy instead of a safer player with a lower ceiling.
• This is obviously long, but I tried to spend the most time on the players where my opinion differs most from the majority. If you want to skim the rankings but dig into the juicy stuff, you should focus on DeAndre Ayton, Trae Young, Marvin Bagley, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Mitchell Robinson and the other sleepers I’m high on.
• That’s it. Sit back, relax, happy reading, and enjoy the draft.

If you want to see how this all works, here’s my draft board last year. Try to focus on OG Anunoby and Jordan Bell more than Jayson Tatum, would ya?

Tier 1 — The Superstars

1. PG Luka Doncic, Slovenia 2. PG Trae Young, Oklahoma

I’ve already written a lot about Luka Doncic. Here I made my case for him atop the draft, and here are my thoughts on his outstanding EuroBasket performance last summer. Doncic is the clear #1 pick. It blows my mind that he’s not even in contention for the top pick. Poor Suns coach Igor Kokoskov, Doncic’s old Slovenian national team coach. I envision a lot of restless nights for Igor, longing for the days of Luka’s natural feel for the game.

Many seem afraid of Doncic because they don’t know what he is, or because he’s a white European so they just assume he’s not athletic. This is not Toni Kukoc or Hedo Turkoglu. Don’t be ridiculous. Doncic is a better athlete and a much better all around player, and what he’s accomplished at his young age should be all anyone needs to know to draft him #1, even in a loaded draft.

So what is Luka Doncic? Gordon Hayward is the easy comp. Ben Simmons comes to mind. Maybe a modern day John Havlicek, or Larry Bird for the dreamers. How about Grant Hill with a shot? Doncic will never match Hill defensively, but he can match his versatility and add a more modern NBA game with his pull-up jumper.

You know what player Luka Doncic is really like? Luka Doncic. And by next summer, we’re all going to be a lot more worried about finding the next Doncic than trying to compare him to someone else.

If there’s one player you can talk me into taking over Luka Doncic, it’s Trae Young. There’s so much obvious downside potential with Trae that Luka just doesn’t have, but I think the upside is higher too. I love Doncic but I’m still not convinced he can be the best player on a really good team. I’m not sure he changes the game for everyone else. I think Trae Young can be that guy.

Trae Young is a fully realized Steve Nash, like if you took Nash’s abilities and taught him that 3>2 and gave him Stephen Curry’s green light. Do you realize that Steve Nash shot 44% threes for the Phoenix Suns but only averaged 3.6 attempts per game? That’s absolutely criminal. Nash had seasons where he averaged fewer 3PA per game than Curry takes in one quarter.

So why compare Young to Nash instead of Curry? A few reasons. First, Curry actually takes all those extra shots and hits them at an absurd rate, and that range that warps the defense. Young might have that in him but we need to see it first before comparing him to the greatest shooter of all time. Second, the size and defense. Curry is bigger than you think, and he’s a genuinely solid defender. Nash was a rag doll with a more similar body to Trae Young. He was a smart but poor defender. His body just never gave him a chance.

Young is a similarly smart player who will defend better when he doesn’t have a ridiculous 37% usage, but he’s never going to be a good defender. So what? Here are the All-NBA point guards the last five years: James Harden, Damian Lillard, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, John Wall, Isaiah Thomas, Kyle Lowry, Chris Paul, Kyrie Irving, Tony Parker, and Goran Dragic. How many good defenders do you see? We don’t draft point guards to be defenders. We hide them, all of them. Elite point guards are elite because they change the game offensively, not because they are decent defensively. Trae Young isn’t going to be a good defender. Players at his size need an elite handle or outstanding shot to be successful in the NBA to offset their lack of defensive potential. Young has both. It’s fine.

But there’s one other reason Young gets the Nash comp instead of Curry, and it’s because he’s a far better passer and creator than Curry. Let’s be fair: Young isn’t the passer Nash is, nor Curry as a shooter, because you don’t compare 19-year-olds fairly to two-time MVPs. But they’re the game we’re going for, so that’s the comparison we’re considering. Trae is a far better passer than most give him credit for. He averaged 8.7 assists a game as a freshman in the best conference and did it passing to absolute trashcan teammates. If he had any talent around him at all, he’d have averaged 11 or 12 dimes a game. Young had a 49% assist rate. That’s just nuts. Trae has a high basketball IQ and passes guys open, and his passing is all the more deadly combined with his shooting gravity and his handle. And the shot is undeniable.

Let’s run through some of the criticisms on Trae Young. I think there’s an answer to each. We already covered the defense above. A fair and accurate criticism, just not really the point.

But if he only shot 36%, is he really a great three-point shooter? Yes. Young was double and triple teamed much of the time and often forced up contested shots that were still better than anything his teammates could do. That meant having to create almost all his own looks and it often meant deep shots. Young had only two catch-and-shoot threes all season. Two! That is staggering. On threes inside 30 feet, Young made over 40%. That’s not 44% like Curry or Nash, but it’s enough to be great and enough gravity that makes his shot so valuable. Only 27% of Trae’s threes were assisted, lowest of any first-round pick. He made 86 unassisted threes, twice as many as anyone in the draft. With this much volume, we absolutely know that he can shoot and that he can shoot really well. Defenses will, too.

What about his 42% field goal percentage? That tends to happen when you attempt ten threes a game because you’re that prolific, almost twice as many as any of the other top scorers in the draft. Young shot 54% at the rim, which is fine, and only 11% of those attempts were assisted so that’s just him having to create something for himself. No top player had less help. I watched more Trae Young games than any prospect, and it’s impossible to overstate how useless his teammates were. Trae Young made 215 unassisted field goals. Life is harder when you have to score 1-on-5. Young also drew a ton of free throws. His 8.6 attempts per game were best among all prospects, and so was his 86% shot. True shooting percentage takes those extra points from threes and free throws into account, and Young had a 59% true shooting percentage. That puts him just a touch off the elite bigs in the class, even the low usage ones who basically make dunks and layups. In the NBA, there’s one star guard who often finds his true shooting percentage near the top of the rankings along with all the big men. Any guesses? His name rhymes with Ref Hurry.

What about all the turnovers? Young’s 5.2 turnovers per game look awful, almost double anyone in the draft, even the other point guards. It’s all relative. Young was simply asked to do way too much. That 37% usage is absurd, and it means he used up way more possessions than anyone in college basketball. Look at turnover percentage instead and now Young rates about the same as Shai and Melton and better than Holiday and Duval. He has a better handle than any of them, better than anyone in the class. His aggression and size are going to lead to some turnovers. It’s not a strength. But it’s not going to kill him either.

Trae Young averaged 31 points per 40, five points more than any player in the draft. So he’s the best scorer in the class, the best passer in the class, and has the best handle in the class. And he’s a smart player with a high hoops IQ and a deadly weapon in transition. What am I missing?

Young isn’t going to be a good defender, and he’s not going to rack up rebounds or athletic highlight dunks. But if you look at Trae Young and Collin Sexton and think Sexton is the better fit in the modern NBA, you’re watching a different game than me. Young could disappoint, but he’s not going to be Trey Burke or Jimmer Fredette. He’s a better shooter than both, and there’s a gulf between their handles and passing. The range of outcomes on Young is wide, and that’s going to scare teams away at the top of the draft. But the high-end outcome for Trae Young impacts the game more than anyone else in the draft. Much as I love Luka Doncic, if a team really believes in Trae Young, I’m fine with them giving him a shot at #1.

Tier 2 — Definite NBA Players with Star Potential

3. C Marvin Bagley, Duke 4. C Jaren Jackson Jr., Michigan State

The further we get from watching actual basketball, the more theoretical players like Kevin Knox and Lonnie Walker (see below… like WAY below) start to get interesting. And the more we forget about how great and fun Marvin Bagley was as an 18-year-old at Duke.

The popular comparison for Bagley is Amare’ Stoudemire, and I get it. He can leap out of the gym and looks like a rim wrecker. He’s going to light up the internet at Summer League. But I see the offensive version of Kevin Garnett. And that’s both an extreme compliment from a Timberwolves fan and also a comment on why we struggle to place Bagley. KG was a power forward until his athleticism waned, and he was a few inches longer than Bagley and a night-and-day better defender. Would KG be a four in the modern NBA? It’s hard to say. He’d have a very different role on offense. The face-up game would still be there, but teams would use his explosive athleticism as much more of a weapon, like the right team will with Bagley.

Bagley is a good rebounder and an awesome offensive rebounder. He has the wiggle and handle of a wing, with fluid movement and excellent footwork. I think he was actually underutilized at Duke, turned into a rim runner when there’s more offensive potential there. I see an offensive superstar, one that is going to score a lot of easy efficient points on put-backs and dunks. Bagley will post some great offensive rating numbers. In the right role, with the right guys around him, he can help some offense be unstoppable in the modern NBA. Bagley is the sort of guy that moves to center and plays someone like DeAndre Ayton right off the court. Go ahead and let Ayton post up Bagley. We’ll take our chances on those post plays and then run the misses down your throat in transition.

Obviously the question mark with Bagley is on defense. He has the length and body of more of a long wing than a true big man. Bagley needs to play center so he can use all that explosiveness to his advantage, but he’s just not going to be a rim protector. But I’m not convinced that he can’t be taught how to use his quickness to switch effectively and contain guys on the pick-and-roll. I see Bagley as more of a blank canvas defender than a bad one. His role on the team will be important. You don’t draft Marvin Bagley and expect him to be a 90s center, not on either end. He’s not your backup option if you wanted DeAndre Ayton. He’s an entirely different ballgame.

The ideal role for Bagley would be at the four, hiding his defensive inefficiencies next to a unicorn center that can protect the rim, then get out of the way and shoot the three on offense. Unfortunately, we have like three of those guys in the world, so we’re probably going to have to live with Bagley lighting offenses on fire and doing enough to stay positive on defense. His defense is not necessarily as bad as people think, but more importantly, I think his offensive ceiling is higher. Duke gave Bagley a simple role as rim runner because that was enough in college, and they hid him on defense. With coaching and development, I think Bagley can be so much more.

Hey, you know what player Marvin Bagley would be deadly next to? Jaren Jackson Jr. looks like another one of those unicorn big men. He’s the perfect modern big. He can protect the rim, switch, and defend the perimeter, and he can stretch the defense and shoot threes. He’s one of the youngest players in the draft, and if he grows even another inch or two, he could turn into a freak-sized athlete instead of just a good one.

Everything you’ve read about JJJ is true. The team defense, the outstanding shot blocking, the modern fit. I want to focus on a few weak spots that I think are being glossed over. Jackson averaged 3.2 fouls, most of any first-round pick, and played only 22 minutes a game. Maybe he grows out of that, but maybe he was able to play with extra energy and recklessness on defense that won’t hold up with bigger minutes. And the shot looks nice at 40% plus 80% from the line, but at just 6.6 field goal attempts a game, we don’t have enough evidence to be sure. It looks good but not great. Jackson also turns the ball over a lot, especially for a guy that has such a low usage rate. There are areas of rawness bigger than some draftniks are letting on.

Still, you have to love the JJJ profile, even if he’s not a finished product. You’re drafting Miami Chris Bosh, the guy LeBron always said was the most important player on the team. Bosh was the guy that held together the defense, then spaced out the offense so LeBron and Wade could do work inside. Jackson is the modern NBA on defense, so if his offensive game turns into Toronto Chris Bosh too, you have the best player in the draft. I don’t see that happening, but I think that’s okay. This version of Jaren Jackson Jr. will be perfectly fine.

Tier 3 — High Upside Plays

Tier 3A: My Guys

5. C Mohamed Bamba, Texas 6. Wing Zhaire Smith, Texas Tech 7. PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kentucky

You were expecting Ayton and Porter? They’re next, at 8 and 9. Spoiler alert. They have the body and upside to be the better players if everything hits, but I don’t buy everything hitting and I don’t buy the mental side of the game. I’m not sure the likelihood of these three hitting their upside is surer in theory, nor am I sure that they are the better player if everything hits. At the end of the day, I just like these three more and trust them to bring out the best version of themselves more than I trust Ayton or Porter. I’d rather trade down from Ayton and Porter or bite the bullet and take a player I believe in.

And I talked myself into one of those guys being Mo Bamba. I hate the word unicorn, but wow is Bamba ever a unicorn. He’s bigger than Rudy Gobert, with a longer reach and an extra couple inches of wingspan, and he has quicker feet. Bamba has Defensive Player of the Year upside. I don’t care that much about the theoretical shot he’s developing. It’s a nice bonus, but I don’t want my Gumby standing 25 feet from the rim too often anyway. I want Bamba learning to set a screen so he can dive on PNR like the rim runner he was born to be, and I want him to spend all his time mastering defense.

I do worry some about Bamba’s body profile. It feels like it’ll be really hard for him to stay healthy and give me 75 to 90 games with that frame. I think of broken-down Nerlens Noel or misses-20-games-a-year Gobert. There’s a real concern there but I don’t know enough about injuries personally to judge.

Outside of that, Bamba is weirdly a safe pick in some respects. Even if the All-Defense upside doesn’t hit, he’s still a longer more freakish version of Robert Williams and Mitchell Robinson, both of whom I have in the top 16. It’s a question of whether he’ll get to that upside, and the thing I like most about Bamba is his outstanding IQ and work ethic. When I watched Bamba play, I wasn’t always totally convinced he knew what he was doing out there. When I listen to him talk, I’m blown away. This is a dude that’s going to learn the game and get better, and I believe in what he will become even if I’m not sold on what he is right now.

Zhaire Smith is a bet on sheer nuclear athleticism. He’s a raw super-athlete, the sort of player that can improve quickly, the kind that’s burned me on past big boards (like Donovan Mitchell last year). I have no idea what Zhaire is. He plays like a center in a point guard’s body with a wing’s length and athleticism. He also just turned 19 two weeks ago, so he’s probably still growing and definitely still learning.

I don’t buy the shot yet. Sure, he shot 45% from deep but on 18 makes. Miss four more shots on one cold night and that drops to 35% for the season. Those numbers tell us nothing, and the shot form doesn’t look great. But the rest of his game pops. Smith is a versatile defender and covered guys from Jevon Carter to Mo Bamba in conference. He has a great motor and a quick first step, even if the handle and shot are raw. The instincts are there. And I love how much better Smith got as the season went on. It reminds me of how Joel Embiid grew month by month at Kansas. But it’s the nuclear athleticism that makes Smith worth the lottery ticket. His rebounding for his size is off the charts, especially on offense, and those highlight dunks are something else. Zhaire had 61 dunks this season. For comparison, Bamba and Ayton had 62 and 69, and they’re about a foot taller. That’s the sort of ground Zhaire’s athleticism makes up.

I don’t know what Zhaire is. A shorter Josh Smith or Jerami Grant? That’s hardly a top six pick but still a super fun player and a really useful one in the right role. But I wouldn’t rank him this high without the possibility of his offense developing. If he gets a handle and can drive and dunk on guys, or if that shot turns halfway real, I could see Zhaire Smith becoming a point guard. Think Russell Westbrook. At the end of the day, I have no idea what Zhaire Smith will become. I just know I want to find out.

Fool me twice with these non-shooting Kentucky point guards, but I just can’t fall out of love with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. And I do believe he’s a point guard. That’s key, and I need him to be a point guard because I want him on the ball and I want him smothering opposing guards. SGA has the length of a wing, like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist with an offensive game. I love his defensive potential and see a high IQ team defense player that can switch all five positions on the right team. He’s got a very slight frame he’ll need to fill out to hang, and he obviously isn’t going to guard bigs for more than a quick switch, but that’s not his job.

I think people are really underrating SGA’s offensive strengths, and they’re the reason I’m higher on him than most. The shot may or may not be real. You can tell he’s not super confident in it, and it obviously needs to keep developing. But I disagree with reports that call him a poor athlete. I don’t think SGA is a bad athlete; I just think he’s a different athlete. He reminds me of Harden’s athleticism, with a first step and a slow hesitation dribble that keeps guys off balance and creates space. Combine that with his length and body control, and SGA can get to the rim really well, where he finished at 61%. I like the ball in Shai’s hands. He keeps his dribble alive and his eyes up, probing the defense, waiting, waiting. I trust his IQ to figure things out on both ends.

Everyone raved about Frank Ntilikina’s pterodactyl wingspan. SGA is just as long with a far more advanced offensive game. I can see him becoming the player we once thought Shaun Livingston might be, before the injuries. I just need the ball in his hands to be worth the pick.

Tier 3B: Trade Down

8. C DeAndre Ayton, Arizona 9. F Michael Porter Jr., Missouri

Let’s talk about DeAndre Ayton. I haven’t seen him this low elsewhere, and I basically would take him only as a trade chip, or try to trade down. The problem with all that logic is that I think Ayton actually has one of the highest floors in the draft as far as staying on the court and producing numbers that make the average fan think he’s successful. Everyone keeps saying Ayton is a 20 and 10 guy, and he probably is. My problem is not being able to figure out how to build a successful team around his abilities.

Let’s start with the good stuff, and there’s a lot, or Phoenix wouldn’t be taking him #1. Ayton has the body of an Adonis, and his advanced metrics look great. He’s an excellent rebounder. He draws a good number of free throws and hits them at an encouraging rate (73%). Ayton shoots a good percentage on twos and takes a ton of them, many as jumpers or face-ups away from the basket. About 44% of his shots are two-point jumpers and he makes 43% of them, which is pretty good but still only a 0.86 PPP shot. His shot looks good, and you can see him developing a decent three over time. Ayton has soft hands and quick feet. He’s good on his toes and moves well on both ends, especially for someone of his size. He’s going to demand the ball in the post early and often, and he could become one of the more efficient and high volume post scorers in the league.

Now the negatives. Ayton has a low assist rate and abysmal steal rate, worst of any first-round prospect. He doesn’t block shots often, especially given his size, and his offensive rebounding numbers are not great considering how often he plays around the rim. Ayton is an abysmal screener, which is going to drive some coach mad. But the biggest issue I have with Ayton’s game is the mental side. He’s everything Bamba isn’t. His game just doesn’t seem instinctive. Every time I watched Ayton, he seemed a half step slow reacting. You can tell he’s well coached and you can see he’s learning, because he usually steps in the right direction, but he’s often late getting there. The lane will be open on a roll but he doesn’t dive immediately. He’ll be in between two players on defense and freeze before he switches too late to make a play. Those moments in the NBA are everything. I can almost see the gears turning in Ayton’s head as he searches for the right file, but he’s processing instead of reacting. It just doesn’t feel natural. In the post, that means the game will grind to a halt and he may miss some easy opportunities. On defense, those moments will define him. They mean being a step slow in help defense. They mean getting dunked on instead of making the play. I just don’t buy Ayton as a great or even good defender.

In the end, it’s a problem of fitting Ayton into a successful modern NBA team. I can absolutely see Ayton becoming the best player on a lottery team, happily posting 22/14s, showing up on top 25 player lists, being the best player on an average or worse team. Yay? I have never bought into Boogie Cousins, and Ayton isn’t as talented. I have a much harder time fitting Ayton into a good team, and I don’t even mean the Warriors or Rockets, just like a second-round playoff team. Take a look around the league. Who are the Aytons playing on good playoff teams? Joel Embiid? Wrong, try again, Embiid is one of the game’s best defenders. Boogie? Sorry, Pels made their move once they put a real defender at center. There isn’t one. If Ayton can’t protect the rim or play good defense, he’s just an old school post-up center. I often wondered this season what I wasn’t seeing in Ayton that everyone else loved…. is it the 90s? He reminds me of Patrick Ewing on offense. And Patrick Ewing is a Hall of Famer, but not for his offense, and not in 2018. Those post-up touches Ayton will demand are shots Devin Booker can’t take. They’re one of the worst plays in basketball. Joel Embiid is a post savant with his footwork and touch. He averaged more PPP on jump shots than in the post this year.

In one interview, Ayton joked about how opposing coaches used to refer to him as a TFN growing up… Tall For Nothing. Ayton apparently thinks that’s funny. It’s not so funny to the team investing a #1 pick. The Suns are going to invest a #1 pick in Ayton, then feel the need to repeatedly feed him in the post to make good on their investment, and he’s going to slowly and inefficiently compile numbers that make their decision look decent. It won’t be. Ayton feels like a player that’s going to demand inefficient post touches the way Dwight Howard does. In many ways, he feels to me like a more offensively skilled version of present-day Dwight. And as I write this, Howard just got dumped with two picks for an extra dead weight year of Timofey Mozgov.

Maybe Ayton’s shot is real and he becomes one of the most efficient scoring big men in the league. Maybe he catches on defensively and learns how to use all those tools and becomes a plus defender. I can buy one of those, but both seems unlikely. If one happens, you get Boogie Cousins or maybe Andrew Bynum. Those are good players, probably top seven centers and top 40 players. But he has to do both to be worth #1.

Look, ranking DeAndre Ayton here is probably going to make me look dumb, especially when he plays a ton of minutes, makes some highlight plays as a mammoth human, averages 18 and 12, and makes annual All Star snubs list. He’s going to be a great rebounder. He’s going to score. He’s going to get numbers. He’s just not going to do it on my team.

Neither is Michael Porter Jr. I see the point of Porter. He looks like a prototypical modern scoring forward at 6'11 with a pretty shot. But we haven’t actually seen him do any of the other basketball stuff besides score, and the injury concern is real and huge. I haven’t seen a lot of Porter outside high school All Star games, so I read a lot of scouting reports. A list of some of the concerns I found: lacks vision, poor shot selection, not a great rebounder, questionable IQ, doesn’t make teammates better, lacks effort on defense. Woof. Basically Porter is an athletic scorer, and we don’t know if he can do much else.

The injury stuff is a big problem. This is not a torn ACL or a broken leg. Back injuries have derailed plenty of NBA careers, and hip injuries for tall dudes are just as bad (and related). If Porter were a sure thing all-around talent with these injuries, maybe he’s worth the risk in the top five. If he was just an awesome athletic scorer with a clean bill of health but no roundedness to his game, maybe you take a chance on the rest developing. But the two together are lethal. The upside is obvious, and there’s a theoretical version of Michael Porter Jr. that’s the best player in the draft. The more likely version feels like taller Andrew Wiggins… and at least Wiggins is healthy enough to stay on the court. With his pretty shot, maybe MPJ is modern Rashard Lewis? I can buy that, and I like Shard. I’m just not taking him top five in this draft.

Tier 4 — The Building Blocks

Tier 4A: The Sure Things

10. Wing Mikal Bridges, Villanova 11. C Wendell Carter, Duke 12. Wing Kevin Huerter, Maryland 13. Wing Josh Okogie, Georgia Tech

There’s a lot to love about Mikal Bridges. I had him as high as 5 at one point but the top of the draft is about upside and he doesn’t have the right upside for that. Still, Bridges is a 3+D extraordinaire. His long arms and frame put him in Covington/Kawhi range for defense, although that flatters him. Bridges is rail thin and doesn’t have a body that can add a ton of physicality, so he’s going to be better defending threes than fours. Bridges is a smart player with high IQ plays on both ends. He’s in the right spot on defensive rotations, and he moves well off the ball and has a high shot release. He shot 40% on threes and 85% free throws over his career so the shot is real. He can’t dribble or create, so the offensive upside is probably something like Khris Middleton, but he likely settles in as Trevor Ariza. Mikal’s upside is the value of a sure thing at an important position with versatility that will let him play 35 minutes a game for a decade. He’s a value add to every team in the league. He’s going to end up more valuable than half the guys ahead of him here.

I’m not on the Wendell Carter hype train as much as everyone else. Carter is getting a lot of Horford comparisons but that flatters him (and wouldn’t be considered as much of a compliment if we weren’t coming off Boston’s playoff run). He’s a big that takes nothing off the table and does just about everything you want at a good but not great level. I question how valuable that will ultimately be in the modern NBA. Carter is tall, but not quite tall enough, long, but not quite long enough. He has the size to defend more like Taj Gibson or Tristan Thompson but may not have the quickness to match them, and he’s not quite a rim protector. Carter is a strong passer and good screener with a great feel for the game. He reminds me of a good Euro center, like Vucevic or Valanciunas. I see a lot of valuable regular season minutes but not necessarily someone I want to rely on in my playoff rotation deep into the hunt. I worry about Carter’s height-to-weight ratio, and I worry about his high fouls and low minutes per game. Are his fouls and conditioning an issue? Carter’s good. He’s a good solid lower-end starting center for a team that needs that. I just don’t know how valuable that is.

Kevin Huerter looks like a prototypical modern two. It feels like a lazy comp, but you watch Huerter and all you can see is Klay Thompson. Huerter has the prettiest shot form in the draft, and he made 42% of his threes and an awesome 52% of his mid-range jumpers. He’s a good cutter and can shoot off the catch or dribble, and he has good lateral quickness for defense and some pick-and-roll handling capability so that’s the upside. If they don’t, you might get Fournier (don’t Google!!) instead. But he sure looks like a Klay or Beal type prospect.

I went back and forth between Huerter and Josh Okogie but felt Huerter is the surer pick and this is my building blocks tier. Okogie has the higher upside because of his defensive ability. He’s an excellent on-ball defender with great length and good motor, and he’s a pretty good shooter with 38% threes both years at Georgia Tech. Okogie had a big role for a bad team, so that meant some turnovers with a loose handle and awful two-point shooting (43%). He’s probably just a catch-and-shoot 3-and-D guy, and his defense is far better on-ball than in a team construct. But his upside lies in that playmaking ability developing further and in his elite athleticism taking him places the others in this tier can’t go, and you can see it in his super high free throw rate and in bursts on film. It’s just a matter of game IQ and consistency. Okogie reminds me of Josh Richardson.

Tier 4B: Matchup Plays

14. F Miles Bridges, Michigan State 15. C Robert Williams, Texas A&M 16. C Mitchell Robinson, Western Kentucky

Miles Bridges slips into a matchup play because I can’t get past his size profile. Bridges is 6'7 with short arms so he ends up with a body like Matt Barnes. That makes him too small to play the four consistently, and unfortunately, that appears to be his best role. Bridges struggled this year when he dropped to the three, where his athleticism advantage is minimized, and it’ll be minimized even further in the NBA. Bridges is a fine basketball player. He’s just sort of moderately good at everything without really standing out. The more I studied Bridges, the more underwhelmed I was. Scouting reports are full of half-compliments, and he seems like an undersized tweener that won’t fit in some matchups. His value seems very dependent on where he ends up. Sliding a bit could actually help.

Robert Williams looks like a typical rim runner, no more, no less. He’s a massive rebounder with great size, and he is a great athlete who will block a lot of shots. The motor comes and goes, and Williams has some ghastly shooting numbers, but that’s not his game. He’s all athleticism and little technique, and that’s fine. He’s somewhere between DeAndre Jordan and JaVale McGee, and even the Warriors need JaVale McGee.

Mitchell Robinson is one of the most intriguing players in the draft. No one knows a ton about him because he dropped out of Western Kentucky and then withdrew from the combine, and he has some definite character concerns and bust potential. But he also has a ton of upside, like best center in the draft upside, and he could be available late. Robinson might be the best rim protector in the class. He averaged 5.6 blocks per 36 in youth league, and he has excellent defensive instincts and a great second leap. He looks like a classic rim runner. Can Robinson be coached? Can he switch? Can he hang with more athletic players? These are all unknowns, and it’s why he’ll slide. But the upside is huge.

Robinson makes seven centers in the top 16 picks, which seems ludicrous in a league dominated by wings and point guards, one in which big men seem to get played off the court in the biggest games. But while I have seven centers in my top 16, I also have seven in my top 40. Last year had a lot of middling big men prospects — this year it’s wings. Big men are not suddenly inherently less valuable. Value is relative. In this draft, bigs are hard to come by, and the few that are good appear to be really good. It’s a mistake to lock into a broad strategy like “it’s a wings league now” and ignore big men if that’s the talent available. How many NBA centers in 2018 play 35 minutes a night in every matchup… maybe like eight? That means 22 other teams that need multiple 25+ minute “starting” centers, which makes about 50 “starting” centers, and just about every NBA team needs a rim-running shot blocker like Robinson or Williams. If you can get one for four or five years on a cheap rookie deal in the late first, that’s valuable. I’d definitely rather take one of these two at 15 or 25 than use the #1 pick on Ayton or a top-eight pick on Carter.

Tier 5 — Wing Beauty Is in the Eye of the Beholder

Tier 5A: There May Be Something There That Wasn’t There Before

17. PG Elie Okobo, France 18. G De’Anthony Melton, USC 19. Wing Troy Brown, Oregon 20. Wing Melvin Frazier, Tulane

I didn’t see a ton of Elie Okobo, but I saw enough to fall in love. Okobo is a dynamic scorer with an elite dribble pull-up. He made 39% of his threes and 82% from the line, so the shot looks real. He’s not a great athlete and is still learning how to play point, but there’s just enough size to let Okobo fend for himself at the two defensively if needed. Okobo might take an extra year or two, but the whole package is there if things come together down the line.

De’Anthony Melton is the best guard defender in the draft, with instincts and versatility along with a tenacity that eats at the opponent. He has All-Defense capability, and he’s a good assist man as a point guard. He just can’t shoot, like, at all. Add a shot and he’s at least Patrick Beverley and probably more, the perfect 3-and-D point guard to pair with a primary wing creator like LeBron or Harden. Think Marcus Smart but in Terry Rozier’s body.

Troy Brown had a terrible year by the numbers, but he was a five-star recruit and a preseason top-10 pick, and he has outstanding size and is one of the youngest players in the draft. He could easily have ended up in the top ten next season if he’d gone back. Brown played point guard in high school, so he’s got some playmaking wing equity, and he has a super high IQ on both ends that helps make up for the disastrous athleticism ratings he had at the combine. Brown can’t shoot or dribble a ton, but he’s an excellent passer and it’s easy to see his high upside if the ball skills develop. He might be Evan Turner with a brain.

Melvin Frazier is one of my long shot swings, a guy who could be this year’s OG Anunoby. He is incredibly raw offensively with shooting numbers all over the place through his career, but he has huge defensive potential at 6'8 with a near seven-and-a-half-foot wingspan, a body that puts him in the range of someone like Robert Covington and maybe even gives him a shot at small ball center down the line. Frazier is an excellent defender both on and off the ball. He just needs to find something to do on offense to stay on the court.

Tier 5B: What You See Is What You Get

21. PG Jalen Brunson, Villanova 22. Wing Jacob Evans, Cincinnati 23. F Gary Clark, Cincinnati

It’s hard not to love Jalen Brunson. He has the whole package offensively, and it’s hard to imagine him not making a long NBA career out of his old man Mark Jackson game. Brunson is a good shooter and an outstanding scorer at all three levels, especially impressive considering he’s only 6'2. Brunson made 52% of his two-point jumpers this year and shot 70% at the rim! Add that to a career 39% three and all his IQ and intangibles, and this is at least a good backup PG. His size means he’s not going to rebound and he’s going to be bad defensively, but that matters a lot less against other backup point guards who will be more similar to the players he held his own against in college. I love what Seth's Draft House scout Finch said about Brunson: “He’ll help you win on a Monday night in the middle of January when it’s your third game in four nights and no one wants to play but him.” Brunson is a guy any NBA team would benefit from having around. If he were a few inches taller, he’d be a lottery pick.

I didn’t really mean to rank the two Cincinnati defenders back-to-back, but here we are. Jacob Evans is two and a half years younger and has the better shot. He’s a strong defender and looks like a pure 3-and-D wing who has a role on any team but probably won’t turn into much more. He’s a fine pick outside the lottery and a value any later. Gary Clark is an old prospect at age 23.6 but I don’t mind using a late first on a five-year prime of a winner like Clark. He’s an incredible team and individual defender and an outstanding rebounder. Clark had a 135–82 ortg-drtg differential this season, an absurd +53 rating! His supposed 44% three pointer overrates a guy that made only 54 from deep in four years, and there’s not a big offensive role here, but the man just makes winning plays.

Tier 6— Big Swings

Tier 6A: No Thanks

24. PG Collin Sexton, Alabama 25. F Kevin Knox, Kentucky

Ranking Kevin Knox and Collin Sexton this low is an implicit admission that they’re essentially off my draft board, considering both look likely to end up in the lottery. There are just too many guys I like more.

I loved watching Collin Sexton play ball this year, I just don’t love him as an NBA prospect. He’s smaller than you think, and his game is predicated on high-usage athleticism to get into the lane and draw fouls and finish, and I think he’ll be worse at all those things in the NBA. It’s a problem that the first trait you read on every Sexton scouting report is “competitive.” Yeah, competitive is great, but so is everyone else in the NBA. I just don’t see a skill that jumps out, and I think a team investing a high pick in Sexton expecting him to run their team will be very disappointed. It’s ironic that so many scouting reports drool over Sexton’s 3-on-5 game, because in many ways that is the ultimate Sexton representation. He doesn’t create for the missing teammates much anyway, and he’s just about as pointless on defense with three guys as with all five. I really want Sexton to succeed, but to me he’s poor man’s Eric Blesoe — and the D is missing for a reason.

Kevin Knox feels like a completely theoretical player. You love him for his size and for his supposed jump shot and the fact that he hasn’t turned 19 yet. But the shot doesn’t fall enough and Knox hasn’t really performed on the court in college or in high school. For all that size, he doesn’t rebound or block or play much defense. He feels like Jeff Green, and if you’ve read anything I’ve ever written, you know that’s not a compliment. Knox has supposedly been skyrocketing up draft boards during interviews and workouts, which makes sense. He’s the sort of guy that looks best when he’s not actually playing basketball.

Tier 6B: Really Good at a Specific Thing

26. Wing Chandler Hutchison, Boise State 27. Wing Khyri Thomas, Creighton 28. G Landry Shamet, Wichita State 29. G Shake Milton, Southern Methodist

Chandler Hutchison is a nice late first swing that could pay off handsomely for some team already deep in the playoff mix. His size could allow him to play three positions and he’s a good rebounder and at least a theoretically good defender with all that length. Hutchison has a rep for having a great work ethic, and you can see it in how much his numbers improved each year. That work ethic combined with his length make him worth a shot, even if his overall game isn’t good enough right now.

Khyri Thomas reminds me of a bigger Avery Bradley. He’s a two-time Big East defender of the year and really gets into guys on defense with the ability to lock someone down, and his motor never stops. Like Bradley, the team defense is not as strong, and I worry that a lot of my favorite draftniks think he has no chance in the NBA. But I see a guy that can be one of the better guard defenders while sporting a 41% three. I don’t trust the handle, but the intangibles are there for a 3-and-D two guard.

Landry Shamet is going to be around the NBA a long time. He’s an outstanding shooter with a 44% three over three years, and he has great off-ball movement and a great understanding of the game, especially in the pick and roll. Shamet doesn’t have the body or athleticism to be an NBA starter, but he’s a smart team defender that can shoot the lights out. Feels like Patty Mills.

I loved Shake Milton at first but found him slipping further down my board as time went on. Milton profiles as a 3-and-D point guard with outstanding size and defensive potential, but the D and the point guard are both theoretical right now. If he could run the point and actually use his massive frame and had more athleticism to defend well, his great shot would be the icing on the cake. Instead, it might be the only thing that translates. The rest will need to be rebuilt, and he might need to start over as a wing.

Tier 6C: A Hope and a Prayer

30. Wing Dzanan Musa, Bosnia-Herzegovina 31. F Keita Bates-Diop, Ohio State 32. Wing Isaac Bonga, Germany 33. F Jarred Vanderbilt, Kentucky 34. Wing Gary Trent, Duke

I want to like Dzanan Musa more, but he seems extremely theoretical. His short arms and moderate athleticism offset his height, and his weak frame and poor shot selection offset his presumed shooting ability. Musa is super young. I like him more if I can draft and stash him. He might be really bad defensively, and there may not be enough there on offense to redeem that.

Keita Bates-Diop strikes me as a median outcome for what Kevin Knox will become in three years when he’s KBD’s age. Bates-Diop’s length jumps off the screen, especially his crazy long arms, but he’s a step slow to be a wing and doesn’t have the frame to bang in the post. He may not have a position. KBD seems fine. He was a high-usage player but probably won’t develop much more, and length can’t solve everything.

Isaac Bonga is the youngest player on my board at 18.6, and he already has huge wing size with long arms and a big wingspan. His age and body alone make him intriguing as player that could potentially guard one to five. Bonga is raw and a definite stash for now, though he has good IQ for his age. He’s got some play initiating, too. He’s going to need to fill out his body and find some more athleticism, but it’s easy to imagine a long rangy wing with playmaking ability in the NBA, even if it feels like Bonga is this year’s Bruno Caboclo, two years away from being two years away.

Jarred Vanderbilt is extremely everything that he is. He has the best rebounding numbers in the draft, especially offensive, and we have plenty of data to show that rebounding is the most translatable stat. On the other hand, Vanderbilt is the worst shooter in the draft by a country mile. He made 23% of his jumpers this season. That’s not a typo, and that made up almost half his attempts. He also averaged 6.2 fouls per 40, worst in the draft. Vanderbilt played only part of the season before missing the rest with injury. He is a monster rebounder with an intriguing skill set but can’t stay on the court due to fouls and injuries and can’t shoot to save his life. I would not spend a first-round pick on Vanderbilt and guarantee him a contract, but his upside merits a high second-round pick.

Gary Trent doesn’t do much, but he’s young and sure does shoot the rock. He can’t defend and shoots way too many mid-range, but he’s got one of the best threes in the draft, and every team needs another shooter.

Second-Round Targets

In no real particular order, here are a few other names that caught my eye but didn’t make my ranking of first-round worthy picks.

Wing Lonnie Walker, Miami PG Anfernee Simons, IMG Academy Wing Bruce Brown, Miami

No, I didn’t forget Lonnie Walker. I just don’t buy him. He’s small so he has to be a guard, and he’s a supposedly good athlete but a horrible rebounder that doesn’t get blocks or steals, so it’s not translating. He’s supposed to be a good scorer but shot only 42%, with 35% from deep and 11ppg. His IQ, effort, and feel for the game are all questionable. The Stepien says he “lacks purpose as a dribbler, self-creator, and passer.” I don’t get it.

I might be talked into taking Walker’s teammate Bruce Brown instead. He had a really rough year but played through a foot injury and has a nice pedigree, and he might be a buy-low candidate. I don’t know much about Anfernee Simons, but he was a top-10 recruit before skipping out on college, and he can score quickly and just turned 19. That seems worth a high second to develop a few years, even if most of the intangibles look poor.

Wing Kenrich Williams, TCU PG Aaron Holiday, UCLA

Kenrich Williams is the oldest player in the draft but also one of the smartest. He’s a textbook intangibles guy. He’s not really going to improve, but he’s a cheap wing option in the second. Aaron Holiday is getting some first-round buzz, but I think it’s because of his brothers. He can shoot as well as anyone, but he’s short and had a brutal turnover rate and bad defensive ratings. He’s not a starter but feels like at least a useful third PG with his shooting, passing, and IQ. These two guys are too smart to fail.

G Donte DiVincenzo, Villanova C Moritz Wagner, Michigan

These two sneak into the first in many mocks, but I think that’s mostly March Madness recency bias. Donte DiVincenzo has a poor age and size profile, and his athleticism didn’t translate into his numbers. Moe Wagner is a stretch big who can’t play NBA defense, so you’re hoping for a less athletic Channing Frye. Both of these guys are defined by overconfidence and March highlights. Perhaps we should keep it that way.

If you’re still reading, bless you. I’d love to field any feedback or questions in the comments below. Anyone I missed you want my opinion on? Questions I didn’t get to about someone above? Rebuttal of one of my points? Someone I got completely wrong? Please comment below.

Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, humor, pop culture, and life musings. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here. Thanks to Basketball Reference, to Jackson Hoy’s draft database, to The Stepien in particular, and to countless other draftniks and resources.