2018 Vegas NFL betting guide: player props

A betting guide to the 20 best player props for the 2018 NFL season

The 2018 NFL season finally kicks off one week from today, and that means it’s time to get our bets in for the season. Sports gambling is legal now, and it’s not like that was stopping us from taking our money to Vegas anyway. But anyone can take money to Vegas. Only the best bring extra money back home.

But I’m here to make you money, and that’s what we plan to do. We went 130–116 against the spread last year, including 29–20 on best bets and 2–1 on locks. Those are healthy winning margins, and they got even better as we honed in on our strongest bets. The same was true for player props and season-long team bets, and that’s where we’ll start.

Season bets require planning and patience. You’ve got to do your homework beforehand and imagine range of outcomes, and you’ve got to spend time on projections. Lucky for you, we’ve done both.

Let’s check out the top 20 player prop bets for the 2018 NFL season…

How did we do last year on season-long bets?

Glad you asked. Season-long team bets were very successful. I took five solid overs, five solid unders, and then five best bets. The solid bets went 4–6 with big hits on Philly, Carolina, and Dallas and close misses on the 49ers and Cards. Admittedly 4–6 is average at best and essentially a coin flip. But check out the best bets:

• Indianapolis under 8 — Colts went 4–12, a lost season. Win by 4.
• Miami under 7.5 — Fins started 4–2 but finished 2–8. Win by 1.5.
• L.A. Rams over 5.5 — Massive hit on shock 11-win season. Win by 5.5.
• Oakland under 9.5 — Playoff favorites were awful, went 6–10. Win by 3.5.
• Tennessee over 8.5 — Started 8–4 as promised before sputtering to the finish line and barely getting to 9–7 in the final week. Win by 0.5.

Five-and-oh, baby! That’s a perfect 5–0 record with an average margin of three wins, very comfortable. Every best bet but one was locked before Week 17. Our strongest reads were our best, and that’s a great sign. Putting $25 on the solid bets and $100 on the best bets, we’d have come out $550 ahead, up 73%. That’s a killing.

Our prop bets didn’t go as well. Props often play longer odds, so you don’t necessarily expect or need to win half of them to come out profitable. Still, we won just three of our 15 prop bets. At $25 each (you typically play props on smaller bets, especially with the longer odds), we would’ve invested $375 and won just $67. Not great, Bob.

But that could have swung in a hurry. The killer was our bet on Todd Gurley as the rushing king at +2300. Gurley led wire-to-wire but sat out Week 17 and lost to Kareem Hunt by 22 yards, or we’d have had a nice $575 payout and ended up winning 71% on our props instead of losing 82%.

Props are big swings. One big hit covers a lot of sins, but there’s a reason these guys are getting 25- and 50-to-1 odds. If you win even one in 20 of those bets, you’re coming out ahead. That doesn’t make props a bad pick. It just reminds us that they’re volatile, and that 15 of thousands probably isn’t a big enough sample size to know how we’re doing (compared to 15 of the 32 over/unders).

Alright, let’s jump into some picks. We’ll start with 20 player props today, then circle back soon for our team over/unders and Super Bowl picks…

Statistical props

This is new since I didn’t find these odds last year, but I’m optimistic. I crank out my own projections by hand for every meaningful player in the NFL and have honed my system for a decade. I checked about 200 of these player props and threw 90% out because my projection was within a hundred yards or a couple TDs of the Vegas number. These are the ones that stood out.

David Johnson over 1050 rushing yards, over 10.5 TDs

Since becoming the bell-cow for Arizona, DJ has played 20 games and put up 1675 rushing yards and 25 TDs (not to mention 1000+ receiving yards). He’s been an absolute monster, averaging 84 rushing yards and 1.2 TDs a game, and there’s no reason to be worried about last year’s fluke wrist injury. Arizona isn’t good but they haven’t been anytime in this span, and Johnson’s good enough to make up for it. Many fantasy analysts think DJ is the #1 guy this year (including me), and he’s going to smash these numbers if that’s even close to true.

David Johnson most rushing TDs +1400

This feels like a three-horse race between DJ, Ezekiel Elliott, and Todd Gurley, the only three players I have projected to hit double-digit rushing TDs. DJ and Zeke are co-favorites. I’d slightly favor Zeke but not nearly enough at these odds. Hopefully DJ lasts more than one half this season.

Drew Brees over 27.5 passing TDs

Let’s take a look at the number of Brees passing TDs in his last ten seasons: 34, 34, 33, 46, 43, 39, 33, 32, 37, 23. Did you spot the outlier? Brees had his lowest TD rate since 2003 and also had 100 fewer pass attempts than his decade-long season average. Those attempts were low because everything clicked for New Orleans, so a little Saints regression should mean more passes, and that TD rate should normalize. Brees is a strong bet to hit 30 TDs with ease.

Odell Beckham Jr. over 8.5 TDs, Rob Gronkowski over 8.5 TDs

While passing TDs are predictable, rushing and receiving TDs are more volatile. These guys are the exceptions. Gronkowski averages almost one TD every six catches for his career, so you need about 55 catches to feel good about this one. Gronk averages around five catches a game, so you’re basically betting on 11+ games from him. Beckham averages about one TD per eight catches and has been pretty healthy outside of last season. He needs to get to around 70 catches, so at his usual 6.7 catches per game, you need 11 OBJ games too. Beckham has 38 TDs in 44 games, so that 8.5 seems quite low. Gronk depends on how you feel about his health.

Todd Gurley under 1375 rush yards, under 15.5 TDs

Regression is a dick. Twelve players this decade have scored 15.5+ TDs. Those players averaged a drop of 11 TDs the following season, from 17.6 to 6.3, a 64% drop-off. That’s atrocious. Eight of them scored five or fewer TDs, and none of them repeated. Only Arian Foster has two 16-TD seasons in the last decade. These aren’t the halcyon days of LaDainian Tomlinson and Priest Holmes. Offenses spread the ball around, and touchdowns are volatile and unreliable. Gurley had 13 rushing TDs last season after 16 his first two seasons, and he added six receiving TDs — the first six of his career. History says those TD numbers are going to drop and could plummet.

Marcus Mariota over 22.5 passing TDs

Mariota struggled to a 2.9% TD rate but should bounce back to around his career average of 5.5% with the help of offensive guru Matt LaFleur. That should mean more passes for Mariota as the Titans move away from a smashmouth offense, and it should mean more efficient passes. Mariota is a lock to average the most passes per game of his career in the new system, so this is just a math problem. At his usual TD rate, Mariota only needs 410 passes to hit 22.5 TDs. He could do that before December.

Keenan Allen under 1350 receiving yards

Last season was Allen’s first healthy season in five and the only time he cracked 1350 yards, doing so by one catch. He could have an even higher target share with Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates no longer around, but health and regression suggest that number should come down, especially if 2017 top-10 pick Mike Williams puts things together opposite him.

League leaders

This was an area we were not so successful at last year, and by that I mean I went oh-for-eight. Oops. Todd Gurley was a heartbreaker and should’ve put us well into the black and our long shot Philip Rivers almost won the passing yardage crown, but most of my picks were not close (*cough* Mariota MVP *cough*). Let’s try this again.

Sony Michel most rookie rushing TDs +800, Rookie of the Year +4000

The rookie RB crop had an abysmal preseason. Michel missed most of it hurt along with Rashaad Penny, Ronald Jones and Nick Chubb have looked terrible, Royce Freeman is splitting snaps, and Saquon Barkley is nicked. Michel may have a slow start but should get an opportunity as a first-round pick in a backfield without other great runners, and New England RBs average almost 1.5 TDs per game. The Pats have one of the league’s easiest run schedules and run extra in the back half of the season as they put teams away, so Michel could pile up numbers late. This is a vote for New England and a lack of obvious competition.

Ezekiel Elliott most rushing yards +350 Most rushing yards by any player under 1575

I only have eight RBs projected to hit 1000 rushing yards, which sounds crazy until you notice only nine did it last year. Running backs just aren’t putting up huge seasons anymore. Ezekiel Elliott is an exception. He averages 105 rushing yards per game for his career, and I have only one other RB within 250 yards of Zeke’s projected total. That’s true even with some regression on carries and YPC with Dallas’s line struggling to stay healthy and the team trending in the wrong direction. LeVeon Bell and Saquon Barkley are the only other two RBs that feel like they could get even close to Zeke.

Davante Adams most receiving TDs +1600

I have only four players projected at 9+ receiving TDs: Adams, Gronk, OBJ, and Antonio Brown. Adams should be the primary target for the league’s best QB, who has always provided outrageous TD rates for his go-to guys. A Packer has caught double-digit TDs in six of the last seven seasons. Adams should be in the mix, and he has the best odds of the quartet.

Andrew Luck most passing TDs +2500, most passing yards +2200

You’re afraid of Luck, I get it. But he’s healthy and at this point, our best guess is 16 games. Luck averaged a 610-pass-attempt rate over his past three seasons, and that could go up under a new coach that likes to move up-tempo. He has a 5.9% TD rate in that stretch, so that puts him in the ballpark of 36 TDs. That would give him a shot at the crown, with Aaron Rodgers the most likely competition. Drew Brees is the annual competition for passing yards, but his attempts are way down on a better team, and Luck has a good chance to lead the league in attempts if he plays all 16. If he’s on the field, he’ll have a shot to be the #1 QB in fantasy football.

Jarvis Landry most receiving yards +15000

I saved my favorite pick for last. A $25 bet on this one pays out a tidy $3750. I have eight players projected at 1200+ receiving yards: Landry, Antonio Brown, TY Hilton, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, Michael Thomas, Marquise Goodwin, and DeAndre Hopkins. You’ll notice Goodwin is also on the list. He’s at +7500 and I’d happily lay a bet on him too, but Landry is my pick.

I already made my case for Landry, a player I think could be the #1 WR in fantasy football. That’s due to a combination of talent, opportunity, and better QB play all built upon the foundation of a Todd Haley offense. Haley WR1s have averaged a 16-game pace of 100 catches, 1400 yards, and 10 TDs over the past decade, and Landry could be the next to inherit the mantle and take a similar step forward to one Antonio Brown took under Haley.

MVP picks

Favorite: Tom Brady +700 Best bet: Philip Rivers +2500 Long shot: Patrick Mahomes +6500

For MVP, I’m looking for two things. I want a quarterback, and I want him on one of the best teams. That’s it. I have the Patriots winning two or three more games than anyone else, favored in every game, and coasting to yet another 1-seed. If that happens, you better believe 41-year-old Brady will walk away with another MVP.

If the Patriots stumble, I like one of two AFC West teams to make a run at a bye. The Chargers and Chiefs could each win somewhere around 12 games. Rivers could get some buzz if he’s over 4500 yards and 30 TDs for a team that finally puts it together. Mahomes could be this year’s Carson Wentz. Kansas City has so many weapons it’s easy to envision them as the league’s top offense. If Mahomes is at the quarterback of the best offense on a 12-win team and adds some of the expected electric throws and runs, he could be a shock MVP candidate.

That’s all for player props! Stay tuned for part II in Vegas domination with the team over/under picks and playoff and Super Bowl picks coming soon!

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