Remember the Titans in Your 2018 Fantasy Football Draft

Why Matt LaFleur changes everything for Marcus Mariota, Corey Davis, and Dion Lewis, three of this year’s big fantasy sleepers

Imagine being Mike Vrabel.

Dude plays 14 years as an NFL linebacker, recording 511 tackles and 57 sacks, making a Pro Bowl, and winning three Super Bowls. And what do we remember most about him? Mike Vrabel caught a touchdown in the Super Bowl. And then he did it again the next year. Charmed life, that.

Vrabel’s charmed life continues. Last year Vrabel was promoted last fall from linebackers coach to defensive coordinator in Houston, and all he did was lead them to the league’s worst defense. For many coaches, that might get them fired. Vrabel got a head coaching gig, and he’ll lead the Titans in 2018. Luckily, Vrabel has excellent taste so he’ll have a lot of help. He brought in Dean Pees, former Baltimore and New England defensive coordinator, to run the defense. And he grabbed Matt LaFleur to run the offense.

Matt LaFleur was the offensive coordinator for the Rams last year when L.A. went from worst to first in points in just one season. His team led the league in scoring the year before too, when he was QB coach for MVP Matt Ryan in the Falcons’ record-breaking 2016 campaign. LaFleur spent the last two seasons working with the two hottest coaches in football, Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. He wasn’t the architect for either of those offenses, but he’s learned from the best. Before that, he helped groom Kirk Cousins and Robert Griffin III in Washington. The man knows quarterbacks and good offense.

And that’s why there’s reason for a lot of optimism for the Tennessee Titans in 2018, both for fantasy football and beyond.

What can the QB coach do for Marcus Mariota?

LaFleur’s specialty is quarterbacks, so let’s start with Marcus Mariota, the player who should benefit the most. Mariota was one of the most efficient quarterbacks to ever play the spread offense in college… so naturally Tennessee stuck him into a slow smash-mouth offense. Expect that to change.

Last year under LaFleur, Jared Goff cut his interception rate in half, doubled his TD rate, and increased his yards per attempt (YPA) from 5.3 to 8.0. He went from bust to franchise quarterback. In 2016, Matt Ryan led the league in TD rate, cut his interception rate in half, and increased his YPA to a league-record 9.3 yards. Basically every time Matt Ryan attempted a pass, he threw for almost a first down. LaFleur’s teams are about explosive vertical passes down the field that open up the whole offense.

LaFleur’s QBs threw around 520 pass attempts the last two years, about 32.5 per game, and that’s artificially low because both offenses were so explosive that his QBs just handed the ball off in many fourth quarters, running the clock out. Mariota averaged 30 attempts per game the past two seasons. That number will certainly go up.

We should also expect a big spike in Mariota’s YPA, so those passes will become much more valuable. Mariota was at 7.6 each of his first two seasons before struggling to 7.1 last year. Under LaFleur, he should at least return to 7.6 and maybe a tick higher, considering Goff and Ryan were at 8.0 and 9.3. Let’s give him 32 attempts per game at 7.8 YPA. That’s a 4000-yard season.

Goff and Ryan also saw a spike in TD rate. Goff’s leapt from 2.4 to 5.9, while Ryan went from 3.4 to 7.1 that MVP season. Mariota was at 5.5% his first two seasons before struggling to 2.9 last year. Again, it’s reasonable to expect him to get back to what he was doing before injury, and with a good offensive coordinator it’s fair to expect an increase. Let’s say 5.9%, matching Goff. Do the math, carry the one, and… hey look, 30 passing TDs!

Add in a drop in interceptions — Mariota barely ever turned it over at Oregon — and his not-as-great-as-you-think rushing stats of around 325 yards and 2 TDs, and you’ve got a quarterback that stacks up with just about anyone in fantasy football. Alex Smith last year had 4000 yards and 26 TD with 350/1 on the ground. That’s pretty similar to our Mariota expectations. Smith was a top 5 fantasy QB. Mariota is currently the #17 drafted QB, taken in the 12th round of most drafts according to Fantasy Football Calculator. The injury risk is real, but the upside is real too. He’s the sort of backup QB pick who could be so good you’re able to trade your starter for help at another position.

Who will catch all those extra passes?

So who will be catching all those delicious Mariota downfield passes?

The receiving corps will be led by last year’s first round pick Corey Davis and veteran Rishard Matthews, with a bunch of youngsters adding depth. Old faithful Delanie Walker will soak up plenty of targets at tight end, while Derrick Henry and new addition Dion Lewis will certainly get some catches out of the backfield.

LaFleur offenses use a lot of 3-WR sets. For the Rams that was Robert Woods, Sammy Watkins, and Cooper Kupp. In Atlanta it was Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Taylor Gabriel. One player is the downfield threat, and that’s been Watkins and Jones, the speedy first-round talents. Another is the slot target, Gabriel and Kupp. The third spot taken by Woods and Sanu is the motion receiver and the most consistent week-to-week.

Tight end has not exactly been a priority on LaFleur teams. His tight ends recorded 22, 19, 25, and 16 catches the last two years. But LaFleur didn’t have someone like Delanie Walker, who’s been over 100 targets four straight seasons. It’s reasonable to expect Walker to step into the slot role occupied by Gabriel and Kupp. Kupp led the Rams in targets last year as a rookie with 94. He typically caught around 4 to 6 passes a week. That’s gets Walker to his usual 65–70 receptions. Add in a slight YPC boost and a return to his normal TD rate after an oddly low year, and Walker should hit 800 yards and 6 TDs again, his usual production. That should make him a top-8 TE for the fifth straight year, and it’s probably not fair to expect a breakout at age 34.

Walker is the #8 TE on draft boards, coming off in the 7th round. That’s about right. I prefer to take a stud early or one of the sleepers later, but Walker is a great way to lock down that position for the season. Delanie Walker is the Ronco Showtime Rotisserie of fantasy tight ends: Set it and forget it!

Both the Falcons and Rams have thrown to their RBs early and often, with 86 and 87 receptions the last two years. Todd Gurley led the Rams in receptions with 64, and Devonta Freeman had 54. We’ll get back to the RBs — just know that they’re going to take up about a quarter of the receptions.

The big WR name to watch is Corey Davis. Davis is the most talented pass catcher here by a wide margin, and he’s in line for a huge uptick in the Julio Jones and Sammy Watkins role. Watkins’ line of 39/593/8 isn’t particularly inspiring, but Julio’s 83/1409/6 is fun. Jones led the team with 129 targets in 14 games, while Watkins had only 70. That leaves a wide range of outcomes. He probably gets something between 90 and 120 targets. Add in a 55–60% catch rate and we’re between 50 and 70 catches. But the big boost should come in Davis’s YPC, which was a poor 11.0 last year thanks in part to injury recovery and partly to a poor offensive setup. The Titans’ new downfield attack should see that number rise to between 15 and 17, as it was with Watkins and Jones. This is the receiver that’s led LaFleur’s teams in TDs each year too, with 6 and 8, and Davis is a big TD threat.

Do the math, and you get a wide range of outcomes. A low-end Davis could finish around 50/800/6. A moderate season looks like 60/950/7, and a breakout campaign could give him 70/1150/8. That puts low-end Davis similar to Robert Woods or Kenny Stills last year, solidly in the WR3 range. The moderate season was closer to Robby Anderson, a top-15 WR. The high-end outcome is more like Brandin Cooks or Tyreek Hill, solidly in the top ten. Davis is currently the #28 WR drafted, late in the 6th. Youou get that production even on the low end, plus top 10 or 15 upside. Go get him.

Rishard Matthews gets the other receiver spot, the boring consistent one. Woods tallied 56/781/5 in this spot last year, and Sanu was at 59/653/4. Expect 55 or 60 catches, 700 yards, and 4 or 5 TDs. That’s about in line with most years for Matthews and puts him as a boring but reliable WR3. Matthews’ ADP is in the 14th and dropping thanks to an injury that has him on the PUP list. He may not be healthy enough to start the season, but he’ll be a boring but solid pickup that slots into one of your flex spots.

Derrick Henry or Dion Lewis?

But what about the RBs?

DeMarco Murray retired, but the Titans signed Dion Lewis to a big contract and he’ll compete with Derrick Henry going forward. LaFleur had a monster Todd Gurley season last year, but neither of these guys is Gurley, and they are much more likely to split the work. Gurley and Malcolm Brown recorded 342 carries. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman had 345 but were much more egalitarian, with Freeman getting 227 carries to Coleman’s 118. For now, it’s fair to expect something closer to that split, with the better runner Henry taking 220 carries while the smaller, more versatile Lewis gets 110 but sees more time in the passing game.

LaFleur offenses have a lot of space, and the Titans have one of the league’s best offensive lines, so both Henry and Lewis should be productive. Henry should best his career 4.3 YPC, so he could get close to 1000 yards on the ground if healthy. Lewis was already at 4.8 YPC in New England, so he’s probably around half that yardage total. LaFleur RBs had 16 and 19 TDs the last two seasons. Let’s give a couple rushing TDs to Mariota, plus maybe 9 for Henry and 4 for Lewis.

The real value here is the passing game. With all that downfield passing, there will be plenty of room in the flats. That’s where Dion Lewis should shine. Derrick Henry has 41 catches in five years of Bama and Tennessee ball. Lewis had 32 catches last season alone. He could almost double that this year. Remember, LaFleur RBs have recorded 86 and 87 catches the last two years. Even if Henry gets a career-high 20, that leaves 50 or 60 for Lewis. That’s a ton of extra yards, and probably a few TDs too since LaFleur RBs caught 5 and 6 TDs the last two years. Give Henry 20/150/1 just being on the field, but Lewis could get to 55/600/3.

That leaves Henry around 1150 yards and 10 TDs while Lewis gets to 1100 yards and 7 TDs of his own —plus all those reception points if you’re in a PPR league. Henry checks in with numbers similar to Alex Collins or Marshawn Lynch, boring but solid RB2s last year. Dion Lewis ends up in Duke Johnson or Jerick McKinnon range. Those guys were low-end RB2s in standard leagues, but McKinnon was top 20 in PPR and Johnson was nearly top 10. Both Titans runners could be very valuable.

Derrick Henry is going as the #16 RB at the top of the third in standard leagues. That feels a bit high. Lewis is the #29 RB, taken in the sixth. That’s a bit more valuable. In PPR leagues, Henry is still the #17 RB and a third-round pick. Not good. Lewis moves up to #25 but looks like an incredible value.

Rank them like this: PPR Lewis, standard Henry, standard Lewis, PPR Henry.

So which Titans are the best ADP value?

A lot of owners will go into the fantasy season thinking the Titans will be a boring plodding offense, just like they always are. Don’t be that owner. You probably thought that about the Rams last season too, and you missed out on Todd Gurley and the more wide-open Rams attack.

This year’s Tennessee players are worth drafting, and it’s all about the LaFleur system. So when it comes to draft day, you know what to do: Remember the Titans.

Great ADP value

• Corey Davis in all formats
• Marcus Mariota
• Dion Lewis in PPR leagues

Good ADP value

• Rishard Matthews (pending injury status)
• Dion Lewis in standard leagues

Fair ADP value

• Delanie Walker

Overvalued ADP

• Derrick Henry in standard leagues

Stay away ADP

• Derrick Henry in PPR leagues

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