What do the Chicago Bears coaching changes mean for fantasy football?

Is Howard worth the early pick in Chicago’s remade offense, and will Trubisky and the passing game break through?

These are not your father’s Chicago Bears. The Bears have remade their coaching staff and their offense, and that may mean a whole new game in 2018.

Chicago brought in new head coach Matt Nagy and a new offensive coordinator in Mark Helfrich. Nagy was the offensive coordinator for one of the league’s top offenses last year in Kansas City, known for explosive vertical plays to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce and plenty of big runs for Kareem Hunt in all the leftover space. Helfrich makes his first stop in the NFL after almost a decade at the University of Oregon — yes that Oregon, the one known for its spread offense and huge point totals. Helfrich will be eased into the role, with Nagy leading the offense for now.

Chicago also remade their receiving corps, which was abysmal last year and plagued by injuries. They added Allen Robinson as the big ticket and also brought in Taylor Gabriel from Atlanta and draft pick Anthony Miller, who’s drawn early comparisons to Steve Smith with his shiftiness and already won the slot receiver job. The Bears also signed Trey Burton, an athletic tight end who filled in nicely for Zach Ertz last year and who played both TE and QB at Florida.

Suffice to say the Chicago offense will look a bit more explosive this year. They probably pass more often, and those passes will be further down the field and into space.

More Nagy means a more open passing attack

That all spells good news for Mitch Trubisky.

Trubisky was a non-factor in fantasy football last year, but a lot can change in a new scheme and with some actual weapons. Trubisky averaged just 27.5 pass attempts per start last year. Compare that to 33.7 for Alex Smith in Kansas City and that’s a potential 23% increase in workload. Smith also averaged a career best 8.0 yards per attempt last season under Nagy. Trubisky was at just 6.6.

Even if we meet toward the middle and give Trubisky something like a 7.4 YPA and 32 pass attempts per game, that gets him to 3,800 yards and probably at least 20 TDs. Add in his pace of 330 rushing yards and 3 TDs last season and suddenly Trubisky is on the radar as at least a solid backup fantasy QB, with upside for a lot more — don’t forget Alex Smith was a top 5 fantasy QB last season. Trubisky could be this year’s Jared Goff.

Nagy loves to throw to tight ends and backs, and that’s what has everyone buzzing about Trey Burton and Tarik Cohen. Burton looks the better pick. He’s a big athletic target, though not quite Kelce’s size. Kelce had a monster 83/1038/8 season last year, averaging over 8 targets a game. Even if you pull back those stats — the number of targets, catch rate, YPC, and TD rate — Burton still ends up around 65/750/5. That alone makes him a solid starting tight end, and if he outperforms those expectations, he could be a championship winner at tight end.

Tarik Cohen is a bit harder to predict. The Chiefs passed frequently to their RBs, and they were also very creative finding ways to get the ball to their best playmakers in space, particularly Tyreek Hill. Expect Cohen to get some chances returning kicks and punts, plenty of motion on offense, lots of screens, just lots of chances to get him into space. What you shouldn’t expect is a lot of traditional runs — maybe even less than he had last season.

That means Cohen’s value is totally dependent on your scoring system. In traditional leagues, he probably won’t be reliable at all, depending on the occasional big play to find his points. In PPR leagues, he’ll be playable in at least the RB3 range. In leagues that give additional bonuses for kick and punt return yardage, his value goes even higher. Plan accordingly.

With the RBs and TEs getting so much work in the passing game, you should probably temper expectations on any of the Bears receivers until we know better how targets will be distributed. If Trubisky passes 32 times a game but 8 of those go to RBs and another 8 go to TEs, that leaves only half the passes headed toward WRs, and those 16 targets have to split between ARob, Gabriel, and Miller.

Even if you assume Robinson gets lead status and sees something like 8 targets a game at a 65% catch rate, he paces to around 75 or 80 catches on the season and probably doesn’t hit 1000 yards, ending up as a low-end WR2 in fantasy football and probably a slight overdraft in most leagues. If you do want to gamble on a Bears WR, stashing Anthony Miller’s upside may be the best bet.

Is there anything left for Jordan Howard?

But what about the most prized Chicago fantasy asset, Jordan Howard?

With all that passing and all those Cohen passes, can there be anything left for Howard? You can ask last year’s rushing leader Kareem Hunt about that. The rookie had a sterling 272 carries for 1,327 yards to lead the NFL in rushing with 8 TDs, plus 53/455/3 in the air, finishing as a top five fantasy RB in any format.

But Hunt’s numbers flattered him. He had a nine-game stretch without a TD and a seven-game stretch in that same period where he failed to hit 100 rushing yards. It was really Hunt’s receiving that kept him stable during that stretch. He had at least three catches in all but three games. His rushing was less stable. Hunt had only six games with 20+ carries and just as many with 13 or fewer. Remember that stretch without 100 rush yards or TDs? The Chiefs lost six of those seven games, so when the games got away from Kansas City, so did their attention to the run game.

That should give you some caution on Jordan Howard. You could argue that Howard’s biggest asset the last two years has been his consistent workload. Since becoming the Bears starter, Howard has seen 15+ carries in 21 of his 29 appearances, averaging 17.8 carries a game. He’s never been a prolific pass catcher, with just 46 receptions in those 29 starts.

The Bears won’t be as good as the Chiefs were last year, so that may mean more times where the game script is not in Howard’s favor. What if Howard loses a couple carries a game and drops from 276 rushes to 245? Chiefs RBs combined for 90 catches last year. Howard averages about 25 catches per 16 games, and Cohen is clearly the superior receiver, so let’s give Cohen 60+ catches and Howard 30 max. In a better offense, Howard’s YPC probably jumps a tick with the extra space. All of that adds up to around 1250 yards combined, which is almost exactly what he had last year.

Add in 8 TDs — Howard had 7 and 9 in his first two seasons — and that probably puts Jordan Howard right back where he started, around 8th to 12th among fantasy RBs, a back-end RB1. Howard is being drafted as the #11 RB in standard leagues, which feels about right. Even with the reduced workload above, he still slides into that range, and really it’s all upside from there. The Bears could win more and use Howard to run the clock out more often. They could keep him on the field more often on passing downs. His touches can really only go up from our projections. Howard is valued about right at RB11 but is going ahead of some WRs with much better upside.

In PPR leagues, Howard is the #13 RB, going in the back half of the second round. That feels a bit high. There his upside is not as strong, and there are other backs or WRs in that range that can hold their value a bit more. Check your scoring and draft accordingly.

2018 Chicago Bears = Upside

The word for this 2018 Bears team is upside. Take a look at their collective standard-league ADPs from Fantasy Football Calculator:

• Jordan Howard RB11, ADP 15
• Allen Robinson WR22, ADP 54
• Tarik Cohen RB39, ADP 91
• Trey Burton TE10, ADP 98
• Anthony Miller WR60, ADP 174
• Mitch Trubisky QB27, ADP 193

Howard is being drafted as a low-end RB1, ARob a low-end WR2, Burton a borderline starter, and Miller and Trubisky are practically free. We gave conservative workload projections for Howard and Robinson and still had them at level. That’s great news in fantasy football because it means it’s all upside from there. It’s even better news on Burton, whose conservative projections made him a solid starter, already well above the #10 TE. He looks like a great pickup. So do Trubisky and Miller, if you’re looking for late upside at either position. Every Bears ADP is fair, good, or great.

Great ADP value

• Trey Burton in any format, even more in PPR
• Tarik Cohen in bonus leagues with PPR and kick return yardage

Good ADP value

• Tarik Cohen in PPR leagues
• Anthony Miller, late sleeper
• Mitch Trubisky, free backup QB

Fair ADP value

• Jordan Howard in standard leagues
• Allen Robinson
• Tarik Cohen in standard leagues

Overvalued ADP

• Jordan Howard in PPR leagues

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