avatarBrandon Anderson

Summary

The article discusses the impact of offensive lines on fantasy football performance, categorizing various NFL teams into groups based on the strength of their offensive lines.

Abstract

The article emphasizes the importance of offensive lines in both real-world football and fantasy football, illustrating how the performance of running backs and the overall offensive output can be significantly influenced by the quality of the line. It groups NFL teams into tiers based on their offensive line strength, ranging from "awesome" to "atrocious," and discusses how changes in personnel and coaching can affect these rankings. The analysis is supported by data from Pro Football Focus and observations from training camps, providing insights into which offensive lines could make or break fantasy football teams in the upcoming season.

Opinions

  • The Dallas Cowboys have one of the best offensive lines, particularly noted for their run-blocking prowess, which is expected to benefit Ezekiel Elliott.
  • The Atlanta Falcons' offensive line is highlighted for its overall solid performance and excellent run-blocking, supporting Devonta Freeman's value.
  • Pittsburgh's continuity in their offensive line is seen as a key strength, contributing to the success of LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles are noted for having the best offensive line according to PFF, despite the loss of Jason Peters, suggesting potential value in Jay Ajayi and Corey Clement.
  • The New Orleans Saints' line is considered very good, particularly in pass protection, which should benefit Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram.
  • The Oakland Raiders' investment in their offensive line is expected to pay off, potentially leading to sleeper value in Marshawn Lynch or Doug Martin.
  • The Buffalo Bills' offensive line is a major concern due to significant losses, casting doubt on LeSean McCoy's fantasy prospects.
  • The Houston Texans' line is criticized for being "comically bad" and not showing much improvement, which could negatively impact their highly drafted offensive players.
  • The Seattle Seahawks' offensive line is considered weak overall, raising questions about the hype surrounding Rashaad Penny.
  • The New York Jets are projected to have one of the worst offensive lines again, which may affect Isaiah Crowell but could benefit Bilal Powell in a passing-heavy game script.
  • The Arizona Cardinals' new-look offensive line is cautioned due to health concerns, suggesting a potential decline in David Johnson's performance as the season progresses.
  • The Carolina Panthers' offensive line is seen as a risk for Christian McCaffrey and Cam Newton, especially after the departure of Andrew Norwell.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals are moving in the right direction with new additions but still have a long way to go to return to their former line strength.
  • The Miami Dolphins' offensive line is in a state of flux, with the loss of Mike Pouncey potentially hindering their run blocking.
  • The Baltimore Ravens' offensive line outlook is uncertain, heavily dependent on the health of star guard Marshal Yanda.
  • The Minnesota Vikings' remade offensive line has potential but is currently plagued by injuries, making their performance a key factor for the team's success.
  • The Detroit Lions' offensive line could improve significantly if key players like Frank Ragnow and Taylor Decker stay healthy

Which offensive lines will make or break your fantasy football team?

Football is won in the trenches, and the same can be true in fantasy. So which teams are reliable and which are red flags?

Football is won in the trenches, with big men up front setting the tone for both the offense and the defense. You might not see it with all the focus on stats and highlights, but fantasy football is often won in the trenches too.

Don’t believe me? Just take a look at last year’s big offensive line (OL) movers and shakers. Two teams invested a ton into their lines and looked ready for a big improvement: the Los Angeles Rams and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags did well enough for rookie Leonard Fournette to break out, and the Rams improvements saw Todd Gurley turn into the fantasy MVP.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Houston Texans came into the year with a holdout from LT Duane Brown while the Cincinnati Bengals looked poised for a big drop after losing several key linemen. The Texans couldn’t make any room for disappointing RB Lamar Miller, and Cincinnati’s line was as bad as expected and saw the entire offense crumble around them.

Offensive lines really matter, and sometimes they can explain an entire team’s fantasy production — or lack thereof. With a little help from Pro Football Focus (PFF) and some research around training camps and the interwebs, it’s easy enough to figure out which lines look reliable and which ones to avoid. Sometimes it’s as simple as noting which teams added big names in free agency or the draft or which teams lost key players to injury.

We made this nice and easy, dividing the offensive lines into easy sections of four below: 4 awesome lines, 4 good ones, 4 bad, 4 awful, and 4 TBD…

Four awesome offensive lines

Dallas

If you know anything at all about lines, you know the Cowboys have a great one. Dallas took a step back last year after losing two starters, but Zach Martin and Travis Frederick are the best interior combo in the league, and now Dallas adds second-round G Connor Williams. Ezekiel Elliott is going to get plenty of touches and he should eat behind the best run-blocking line in the league.

Atlanta

The only real standout Atlanta lineman is C Alex Mack, but the strength of the Falcons is that there are no weaknesses. Every starter grades out positively, and Atlanta is probably the best run-blocking team in the league outside of Dallas. That’s good news for the always underrated Devonta Freeman.

Pittsburgh

They key word in Pittsburgh is continuity. This is the third straight year the Steelers will start the same five guys on the line, and there is strength in familiarity. LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown are studs, but it helps to know they’re getting plenty of help from the line too.

Philadelphia

The Eagles graded out as PFF’s best offensive line in the league last year, even after losing stud LT Jason Peters with a torn ACL. Philly’s line is deep and talented and should be one of the best in the league again. You’re probably not too excited to draft an Eagles RB, but Philly runners averaged 4.5 yards a carry, top five in the NFL. Jay Ajayi got his legs late in the season and could prove a value, and Corey Clement could be a great late sleeper.

Four more that are pretty good

New Orleans

You could probably add the Saints to the four awesome lines section, but then we wouldn’t have a bunch of sections of four and symmetry is nice. New Orleans is probably a little better pass blocking than run, but their guys get the job done either way. Drew Brees should be safe and sound, and Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram should have plenty of room to roam once again.

Oakland

The Raiders sunk a ton of money into their line a year ago and felt disappointing but still ranked among the top ten lines. Jon Gruden is ready to go old school, and he’s brought in OL expert Tom Cable to coach up an already talented line. Marshawn Lynch started slow last year after being overdrafted, but he quietly closed the second half of the year very strongly. He or Doug Martin could provide huge sleeper value if they get any separation.

New England

The Patriots have won more than half their games every season this century. Think about that for a second — it’s incredible. You don’t do that without consistently great offensive line play. The Pats lost Nate Solder but they always find a way. It’s tempting to just throw your hands up at Belichick’s merry-go-round of RBs, but there’s huge value here if you can find the right name. At least a couple New England RBs will be playable with this team.

Tennessee

The Titans are Atlanta Lite, just really solid across the board, and now they’ve inked LT Taylor Lewan to a long extension to lock the line in. The Titans overhauled their offensive scheme. Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis could eat into each other’s production, but if one of them steps forward as the guy they could be one of the year’s breakout players.

Four atrocious lines that are truly offensive

Buffalo

This is the big one you need to know. No team lost more from its offensive line than the Bills, who graded out as a top seven OL by PFF but lost their starting LT, LG, and C. The replacements aren’t terrible but still represent a big drop, and that’s a huge worry for consensus top-25 pick LeSean McCoy. He just doesn’t have any help on the line or in the passing game. That could mean some big early games, but at age 30, McCoy can’t carry an offense anymore.

Houston

The Texans line was comically bad last year, and unfortunately, they haven’t done much to give reason for hope. Houston brought in a bunch of castoffs but the line could still be ugly. That is a big red flag for a team with starters being drafted very high at every position. Be careful.

Seattle

The Seahawks still haven’t figured out their line, though they should be better than last year. They’ll have LT Duane Brown all season now and they’ve added some hefty run-blocking tight ends that should help. But it’s still a very weak unit overall, and that should give pause to some of the Rashaad Penny hype.

New York Jets

The Jets had a bottom three offensive line in the league last year, and they may well end up there again. That’s bad news for a team that’s short-staffed pretty much everywhere on offense. It could mean Isaiah Crowell struggles to find running room but could be a boon to Bilal Powell’s value since the Jets should be behind and passing often.

Four more that are pretty bad

Arizona

The Cardinals have a new-look OL after a ton of offseason changes, and that’s a good thing. The problem this year may be health. Guys like Mike Iupati and Andre Smith can be great when healthy but their health has betrayed them. This line could start well enough but crumble as the year goes on. Keep that in mind if you’re a David Johnson owner — you may went to sell later.

Carolina

The Panthers were a surprise success last year along the OL, but a lot of that was due to G Andrew Norwell who’s in Jacksonville now. Anyone who watched a Carolina game last year saw Christian McCaffrey constantly taking hits behind the line before he could get into space. That’s the risk for both him and Cam Newton, where two Kalils might be even worse than one.

Cincinnati

The Bengals saw the biggest drop last year at OL and set out to fix it with the addition of LT Cordy Glenn along with first-round C Billy Price. That moves Cincy in the right direction, but it’s still a far cry from the strong line they had for almost a decade. That was often the big reason for success with guys like Jeremy Hill and Rudi Johnson, but Joe Mixon will have to do it on his own.

Miami

The Dolphins offseason was a weird two steps forward, two steps back sort of thing. They went out and got stud G Josh Sitton but then let starting C Mike Pouncey walk, and Pouncey has been the key to this team’s line in recent years. Without him Miami projects to have a solid pass-blocking quintet, but the run blocking may struggle.

Four big question marks TBD

Baltimore

The Ravens line gets mixed reviews, and that’s mostly because no one knows what to expect from stud G Marshal Yanda. Yanda is the best guard in football and a future Hall of Famer, and the Ravens line fell apart last year when he went out injured. A healthy Yanda along with a good pair of tackles could mean the Ravens end up among the league’s top ten lines.

Minnesota

The Vikings remade their offensive line last year after a disastrous 2016 and had some success, but it’s still hard to know what to expect, especially with a litany of injuries already plaguing the team in training camp. The Vikings have a Super Bowl roster on defense and at the offensive skill positions, but the offensive line will make or break the team.

Detroit

Like the others in this section, Detroit’s OL depends on the health of guys they’ve invested a lot into. The Lions added stud first-round C Frank Ragnow, and LT Taylor Decker should be fully healthy now. Detroit hasn’t had strong OL play in awhile but this group could turn things around if healthy.

Washington

The Redskins were marked by inconsistency last season, with the second highest combination of different starters in the NFL in a season marred by injuries. Washington has plenty of talent but needs to figure out which guys are healthy and ready for an offense that will look totally different than last year. That makes guys like Alex Smith and Derrius Guice very hard to predict.

Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.

NFL
Football
Fantasy Football
Sports
Dallas Cowboys
Recommended from ReadMedium