2017 NFL betting guide: Everything you need to dominate Vegas
The best over/under bets and player props for the 2017 NFL season
Solid 2017 overs
New England over 12.5
The Patriots are really good and their division is really bad. That’s basically six free wins, which means New England only needs to win seven of their other ten games to hit the over. This team is loaded and deep. The better bet may be New England at +175 to win the AFC. They seem like a mortal lock for a first-round bye. That makes them a home favorite at least once and likely puts them a game away from winning your bet.
Carolina over 9
Cam Newton and Luke Kuechly are healthy, and Christian McCaffrey is a huge weapon. The Panthers have one of the easiest schedules in football and a healthy Carolina team should contend for the best record in the NFC again. Carolina is +225 to win the division, but if you want to buy more Panthers stock, the better bet may be going all in on those +2800 Super Bowl odds.
Philadelphia over 8
There’s always at least one team that goes from the cellar to winning the division, and the Eagles and Panthers look like the two best bets this year. Philly added some real defensive depth this offseason, and Carson Wentz and the passing game are ready to take the next step.
Houston over 8.5
This is a bet on a dominant defense and a weak AFC South. Houston was one of the best defenses in the league last year and that was without league non-QB MVP J.J. Watt. If the offense can even get decent play from a quarterback, the Texans look like a strong playoff bet. If you want to double down on a heartwarming run all the way to a title, Houston is +2500 to win it all.
Arizona over 8.5
Carson Palmer is not going to magically be awesome again, but this team sustained a ton of injuries last year. A healthy Cardinals defense is nasty with playmakers all over the place. That and David Johnson should put Arizona back into the mix. Arizona is +170 to make the playoffs, and an over here would likely mean a playoff berth, so that may be more tempting.
Solid 2017 unders
Jacksonville under 6.5
How does a Blake Bortles team get to seven wins? The Jaguars haven’t even won six games in their last six seasons, and we don’t know if the newfound run game is real yet. There’s just too much talent still lacking at key positions.
Detroit under 7.5
The Lions won nine last year but had a negative point differential. They still don’t have any running game to speak of and the defense is nothing special. Matthew Stafford alone just isn’t enough reason to believe in Detroit.
Buffalo under 6.5
The Bills traded away Sammy Watkins and Ronald Darby to load up on draft picks next year. There’s just not much talent left, and the roster is very thin. This team is looking toward the future and interested in a high draft pick. It’s really hard to see them finding seven wins.
Dallas under 9.5
It’s just classic Dallas to underachieve this season with all the heightened expectations. The Ezekiel Elliott saga could drag out all year, and the offensive line lost some key pieces, so Dak Prescott may find the job a bit tougher this time around. Dallas always zigs when you expect them to zag.
San Francisco under 5
The 49ers loaded up their defense in the draft and brought in Kyle Shanahan to move the team forward, but it’s going to take some time. This team is still recovering from a depleted roster from the Jim Harbaugh era. They could push with five wins but six seems unlikely.
Five best 2017 over/under bets
Indianapolis under 8
This is practically cheating at this point, and this line is off the boards in many markets with the unknowns surrounding the Andrew Luck injury. No one knows when Luck will be back yet. This is a bad roster and even a healthy Luck would need an MVP year to get them to nine or ten wins. They’re sunk without him, and this season could go foul in a hurry if they lose their first few games before he’s ready to go.
Miami under 7.5
The Dolphins made the playoffs last year after winning between six and eight games the previous seven seasons, but they did it with a negative point differential. Now they’ve turned to retired sourpuss Jay Cutler to save this season after Ryan Tannehill’s injury. Cutler’s won more than seven games only three times in 11 seasons. He is a loser quarterback and there’s no reason to think a summer of retirement changes that. Miami will be an underdog in 11 of its first 13 games — all but the two against the Jets. This could be bad.
Los Angeles Rams over 5.5
The Rams are better than you think and have a lot of things going their direction. New head coach Sean McVay adds a spark this offense has been missing, and Sammy Watkins will open up the passing attack and make room for Todd Gurley behind an improved line. The team brought in Wade Philips to lead a talented defense, and they catch a great early schedule with Scott Tolzien’s Colts Week 1 followed by the Redskins and 49ers. The Rams could be this year’s shock 3–0 team heading into Dallas if things break right.
Oakland under 9.5
The Raiders were last year’s Cinderella team with 12 wins and everyone is penciling them in among the favorites, but there are a lot of question marks here. The two key guys on offense are coming out of retirement (Marshawn Lynch) and off injury (Derek Carr), and the defense is still pretty terrible. The Raiders gave up 24+ points last season in 11 different games, and that was with Khalil Mack giving a defensive MVP worthy performance. This year’s team is all downside in a tough division, and ten wins will be hard to come by.
Tennessee over 8.5
Meanwhile the Titans could well be this year’s Raiders, with a tough balanced attack and a weak schedule, a team that could contend for a first-round bye. The running attack is one of the league’s best, and now Marcus Mariota has some real targets in rookie Corey Davis and underrated veteran Eric Decker. Mariota will be the better QB in all but maybe four games this season, and Dick LeBeau’s defense is good enough. These Titans could win 12 or more games, and hitting nine should be a piece of cake. Tennessee is +200 to win the division, +1800 to win the AFC, and +3300 to win the whole thing. So when you’re looking for this year’s long shot, remember the Titans.
Seven random 2017 prop bet winners
Perfect 16–0 Season — No -1250
This bet is up because of the Patriots, but 16–0 is a steep hill to climb. Even if New England coasts through its division, the other ten games are against the Chiefs, Saints, Texans, Panthers, Bucs, Falcons, Chargers, Broncos, Raiders, and Steelers. That’s ten quality opponents, all assumed playoff contenders. Even if you think the Pats have an 80% chance of winning each of those games — and that is a gross misunderstanding of how dominant New England or any NFL team is— they’d still have less than an 11% chance of winning them all. The “yes” odds are +800, so that’s already a bad bet. Dropping the Pats to 70% favorites in those games makes them 1-in-35 to win all ten, and that’s assuming they are 100% likely to win all six division games. This is just a math problem, and the answer is “no.”
Quarterback with More Starts — Deshaun Watson +150 vs Tom Savage
The Texans play in Cincinnati and New England Weeks 2 and 3. You just know Houston is going to struggle to move the ball in either or both of those games, or maybe against Tennessee or Kansas City after that. Watson was getting all of the preseason buzz and Savage is not a long-term answer. Houston has a real chance to make a run this year but that means getting Watson out there sooner than later.
Quarterback with More Starts — Chad Henne EVEN vs Blake Bortles
Bortles is 11–34 in his career and took a step backwards last year. He’s never been good, and the new coaching staff has no reason to tie themselves to him. Heck, he might not even make it out of Week 1 in Houston. Henne isn’t good either but he can at least be neutral and give this team a chance.
First Quarterback Benched — Blake Bortles +220
Bortles and Savage are the favorites here with Mike Glennon +360, Josh McCown +550, and Tyrod Taylor +650 behind them. Bortles is the one option there that would be benched because a team is trying to win and decides the backup can do it better. For the Bears, Jets, and Bills, benching their veteran QB just means taking a look at the future. Bortles and Savage are deserving favorites here, but Bortles is worse with a more ready backup.
First Coach Fired — Adam Gase +2000 or Jim Pagano +600
The favorites are New York’s Todd Bowles and Cincinnati’s Marvin Lewis, but the Jets know they are tanking, and the Bengals haven’t fired Lewis for the last three or four decades, so why start now? Dig a little deeper and you could find the fall guy for the Dolphins or Colts if their seasons really go south. If Miami loses their second game against the Jets, they may well start 0–5. Miami has a Week 4 game in London. If the Dolphins haven’t shown much life, don’t be surprised if the team leaves him behind.
Better Los Angeles Team Record — Rams +2.5 +105
Both L.A. teams have improved terrible offensive lines, and both added great veteran coaching staffs that should help the teams take a step forward. But the Rams have a lighter schedule and a lot more talent on defense, and the key here is that +2.5 line. The Rams usually win six or seven, which means the Chargers could need to win nine or ten to cover this spread. And if the Rams improve even further and push .500, this one is a lock.
Denver to Win the AFC West +350
The Broncos had a historically good defense last year and are bound to take a step back but should still be among the league’s best. Many pundits are turning against QB Trevor Siemian, but he got the job done well enough last year and has more help on the line and in the run game this year. Denver may still be the most talented all around team in a division that could be a toss-up between all four teams. These odds are just too good to pass up.
2017 player prop picks
Most passing yards — Drew Brees +240
Brees is a boring pick, but he’s averaged 5141 yards a game over the past six seasons. The Saints are in a tough division with a poor defense, so Brees will be throwing all year. It’s his title to lose, just like every other season. If you prefer a long shot instead, Philip Rivers is intriguing at +1240.
Most rushing yards — Jordan Howard +1000 or Todd Gurley +2300
Both are workhorses on teams with no other real options at RB. Both play on teams that should feature the run to take pressure off an inexperienced quarterback. The Bears have a better offensive line, though the Rams improved theirs a lot this offseason. There’s an opening here with Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension, and the odds haven’t adjusted otherwise. One of these two could come up big.
Most receiving yards — Field +1500
Receiving yards is typically one prop that tends to go to the underdog. Antonio Brown and Julio Jones are deserving favorites here but each has a history of injuries, and field includes high-target options like Larry Fitzgerald, DeVante Parker, Keenan Allen, and even Dez Bryant in some places.
Most rushing TDs — David Johnson +300
This is another line that doesn’t seem to have adjusted with Ezekiel Elliott’s absence. Johnson probably won’t match his 16 TDs last season but may not have to in order to win this. His most obvious competitor LeVeon Bell has a career high of just eight rushing TDs. It’s possible Johnson could be the only RB this season to even hit double digits.
Most receiving TDs — Rob Gronkowski +1500 or Dez Bryant +2200
There’s no question of talent here, just health. Both Bryant and Gronk average an absurd 0.77 TDs per NFL start. That’s a career-average pace of over 12 TDs for a full season, so it’s just a question of staying healthy long enough. You can also bet on Gronkowski -2.5 TDs versus Tyler Eifert and on Bryant -2.5 against DeAndre Hopkins. Eifert is a TD machine but still averages just 0.54 per game in his career (which shows you how good Gronk and Dez are) and is injured just as much as Gronk. Hopkins has had more than six TDs only once in his career; Bryant has more than doubled him every other year.
MVP — Marcus Mariota +4000
The Titans look like this year’s Raiders, and that makes Mariota this year’s Derek Carr. MVP is all about narrative, so a candidate needs to be able to tell a great story. The Titans could win 12 or 13 and grab a bye, and Mariota is the guy who’s going to get all the attention if they do. He’s already got all the leadership stories buzz, and he could add the stats piece this year in an improving offense. This could be the year Mariota makes the leap, and he’s the long shot MVP candidate that could be this year’s big winner.
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