NFL Wild Card Round preview and picks

A playoff throwback to 1999, with four big home favorites and one sleeper ready to make a run…

The year was 1999.

The loaded Rams were the NFC’s best, outlasting a high-powered Vikings attack in the playoffs, 49–37. The Jaguars were the dominant AFC team after a stellar 14–2 year, but Jacksonville fell to the Titans in the AFC Championship. The Titans had begun their playoff run with a memorable last-second victory over the Buffalo Bills. Perhaps you remember the Music City Miracle?

I was home watching on the tiny kitchen TV. My mom was on a long-distance call so I had the game on mute. I grew up in the 90s so the Bills were the lovable losers and fun to root for, and local product Phil Hansen was North Dakota’s NFL predecessor to Carson Wentz. Still, I was tired of the Bills and rooting for Steve McNair, Eddie George, and Jevon Kearse. I was crushed when Steve Christie’s field goal cleared the uprights and put the Bills up one with 16 seconds left. The game was over… and then it happened.

The kickoff was fielded by fullback Lorenzo Neal at the 25, who immediately handed off to Frank Wycheck. Wycheck drifted right before turning and throwing awkwardly across his body, a flimsy throw only a tight end could make, and the ball seemed to hang in the air. When it reached Kevin Dyson, the announcer screamed out, “He’s got something!!” and suddenly you saw the motorcade of Tennessee blockers ready to escort Dyson as he ran untouched into the Buffalo end zone. The Titans season was saved, and the Bills have not been back to the playoffs since.

Tennessee went on to win the next weekend, then knocked off the 1-seed Jaguars for the third time that season and came within half a yard of a Super Bowl victory before the Rams’ Mike Jones heroically tackled that same Kevin Dyson with zeroes on the clock. A few weeks early, a senior at the University of Michigan led the Wolverines to a 14-point comeback victory in the Orange Bowl against Alabama in his final collegiate game.

Eighteen years later, Tom Brady is still playing football. He’ll sit this weekend out, but the playoffs have a distinct 1999 feeling about them, especially in the AFC. The Bills are back, finally. The Titans and Rams are back too after combined 22-year droughts of their own. The Jaguars are even good again, hosting their first playoff game since that year, where they destroyed Dan Marino 62–7 in his final game ever.

The NFL playoffs are here, and they’re ready to party like it’s 1999. So let’s crank up the Prince and run through some Wild Card weekend picks…

Jacksonville -8 vs Buffalo

How many guesses would it have taken you to pick this as a playoff matchup in August? There were 480 possible first-round matchups when the season began. Was this the 300th most likely outcome? Was it even in the top 400? Can you imagine Josh McCown’s Jets as big favorites in a playoff game against the Cleveland Browns one year from now? That’s this game.

Blake Bortles is playing an NFL playoff game, and he’s a two-score favorite. The Jaguars have a whopping one win against a playoff team all season, an ugly 1–3 record against playoff teams.

But for all our excitement welcoming Buffalo to the playoffs for the first time this century, the Bills aren’t exactly a real playoff team. They’ve lost four times by 20 or more points, and seven times the offense found the end zone once or not at all. Buffalo is second to last in passing offense with a season high of 261 yards, and run game is not what it once was with a questionable LeSean McCoy and an offensive line that’s all sorts of banged up.

The Jaguars have the single best unit in football, their dominant defense. They led the league in rushing yards and face the league’s worst run defense. That 1–3 record against playoff teams conveniently overlooks wins against the Ravens, Chargers, and Seahawks. The Jaguars are a real playoff team, and all but two of their games have either been losses or wins by 12 or more.

What’s Buffalo going to do to stop Leonard Fournette? How will the Bills offense respond if they fall behind and have to play catch-up? The answer may not be pretty. The Bills playoff streak is over, but it’s hard to imagine an easier opponent for these Jaguars. Jacksonville should roll.

The pick: Jacksonville 30, Buffalo 10

Kansas City -8 vs Tennessee

The other AFC game should be more competitive. The Chiefs have won only one playoff game since 1993. They’re 0–5 at home in the playoffs since that year, with four heartbreaking one-score losses. This is a game Kansas City always seems to blow.

But the Chiefs are good again after a weird season bookended by five- and four-game winning streaks with an ugly 1–6 stretch in the middle. Kansas City’s offense is clicking again, over 28 points a game the past five weeks, and Kareem Hunt looks like he’s caught a second wind. Sleeper MVP Alex Smith has thrown for over 4000 yards with 26 TDs and just five picks, and eight of the Chiefs wins were by two or more scores.

We still don’t really know what this Titans team is. They lost to the Dolphins, Cardinals, Texans, and 49ers but beat the Ravens and Seahawks and swept the Jaguars. The offense hasn’t scared anyone all year. Marcus Mariota has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, DeMarco Murray is doubtful, and Tennessee is averaging under 19 points over their last ten games.

The Chiefs are the far better team, but there’s one way this game could stay close. About the only thing Tennessee actually does well is play tough run defense and limit turnovers. If they stop Hunt and don’t turn the ball over and force Alex Smith to beat them, perhaps they’ll keep it close. Kansas City forced 25 turnovers in their ten wins but just two in six losses. This team thrives on big plays on both sides of the ball. If the Titans can limit those mistakes, they’ll give Mariota a chance.

The pick: Kansas City 27, Tennessee 13

New Orleans -6.5 vs Carolina

This is our one rematch, with the Saints sweeping the season series with wins by 10 and 21 points. This is not a particularly contentious division rivalry, about half the games by one score and none particularly memorable.

You’ll hear a lot this week about how hard it is for a team to beat an opponent three times in one season. Twenty times since 1970, a team that swept a division foe faced them again in the playoffs, and 13 of those teams won. The sweeper as a home team won 11 of 16 times. In both cases, the sweeper won about two-thirds of the time, usually as the favorite. Sure, it’s difficult to beat an opponent three times — because the only way you play an opponent three times is if they’re a familiar division opponent and a playoff team.

Drew Brees and Cam Newton give us the weekend’s tastiest quarterback matchup, but this year’s version of these teams are built around strong run games and stout defenses. The Panthers offense has been wildly inconsistent. Cam Newton has under 200 passing yards in nine games, plus nine games with zero or one touchdown. The Saints vaunted rush attack has slowed down of late too, with under a hundred yards in three of their last four.

Neither team is playing their best ball at the moment. This game should be fairly close, and the Panthers are 8–1 in one-score games this season. Perhaps that gives them an advantage in a close game — but it probably means this team is a little overrated and lucky. The Saints were 7–1 at home and won ten games this season by eight or more points. They’re the better team and a correct favorite, but the under may be the better bet here.

The pick: New Orleans 24, Carolina 17

Atlanta +6.5 at Los Angeles Rams

Saturday night’s tilt looks like the best matchup of the weekend. The Rams haven’t played a playoff game in 13 seasons, and Los Angeles hasn’t hosted a Rams playoff game since 1986. If you’re wondering how long ago that was, Eric Dickerson outpaced Tony Dorsett with 248 rushing yards in that one. As for Atlanta, they haven’t won a playoff road game since Michael Vick visited Lambeau fifteen years ago. One of these teams will do something historic.

The Rams look like a juggernaut, but it’s possible this team has become a bit overrated. Los Angeles ran up the score on a number of terrible teams and played a Charmin-soft schedule. They got six games against a watered down NFC West, plus four each against the AFC South and NFC East. Their big early win in Dallas and big late one in Seattle don’t look as good as they did at the time, both against seriously flawed teams that missed the playoffs. The Rams are 3–2 against playoff teams.

Atlanta is only 2–5 against playoff opponents, but both wins came in the last month. They played in ten one-score games and could have easily won 12 or 13 if things had bounced their way, and they are battle tested and might be ready for another run. Even after a disappointing year, things may have bounced Atlanta’s way. They can beat Jared Goff and Nick Foles to make the NFC Championship Game, and they’ll face Case Keenum or a divisional foe if they get there.

Atlanta is 8-to-1 to make the Super Bowl again. And that might be the best bet of the entire weekend. The Falcons never hit on all cylinders this year, but they’re healthy and bring back most of last year’s roster, so they’re as good as any team in the NFC. In a close playoff game, do you want the rookie head coach and Jared Goff, or do you prefer the team with Super Bowl experience and the reigning MVP?

The pick: Atlanta 23, Los Angeles 20

Week 17 record: 10–6 Season record: 130–116–11 Best bets: 29–20–1 Locks: 2–1

Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, humor, pop culture, and life musings. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.