Who is this year’s worst-to-first NFL team?

Which 2017 bottom feeder will win its division in 2018?

Every year it happens, and each time we are shocked. Some NFL team has a season from hell, loses most of its games, and grabs a top-10 draft pick. They are all but forgotten that summer and their players are avoided like the plague in fantasy football. And then they win their division out of nowhere.

Sound familiar? It should.

In 14 of the last 15 seasons, at least one NFL bottom feeder flipped the script and won the division the next year. Two years ago, I picked rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott and they helped the Dallas Cowboys improve from 4–12 to 13–3. Last year, I predicted a worst-to-first season for the Eagles, and Philadelphia rode Carson Wentz all the way to the Lombardi. The Jaguars turned the tables too, leaping from 3–13 to 10–6.

The NFL wants parity, and worst-to-first is the ultimate sign of parity. No matter how bad these bottom feeders were last year, history tells us at least one will likely win the division this season. So which one will it be?

The Buc stops here

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs are alone at the bottom of this list, and they’re moving in the wrong direction in a division with three contenders. They have a terrible offensive line and one of the league’s worst defenses, dead last in defensive DVOA last season. They were also one of the league’s most consistent teams, which is bad in their case since it means they were consistently terrible.

The Bucs start the year without Jameis Winston at New Orleans and against the Eagles and Steelers. Their season might already be dead and buried by October. This could be the end of an era for Tampa, with potential coaching and QB changes on the horizon a possible top-5 pick on its way.

So you’re saying there’s a chance …

8. New York Jets

On the one hand, it’s entirely possible the Jets are the second best team in their division. That’s only true of two other teams on this list.

On the other hand … the Patriots.

The Patriots have won 12+ games every season this decade, 10+ every year since 2002. So if you’re picking the Jets to win the division, you’re picking them to win at least 10 games, probably more since the Pats are so good and have a cakewalk schedule. It’s a bet against the Pats defense (#31 DVOA) and against the health of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. But just how many games would Brady have to miss for the Pats to not win this division?

The Jets should be better. They appear to have three good options at quarterback, the receivers are healthy, and the defense is decent. Could they split the New England games and sweep Miami and Buffalo to go 5–1 in the division, then eke out five other wins and hope Tom Brady finally ages?

Sure, I suppose. But don’t bet on it.

7. Cleveland Browns

Like the Jets, part of the challenge for the Browns is the mega-boss opponent waiting for them even if they do take a leap forward. The Steelers look like Super Bowl contenders. They haven’t had a losing season since 2003, with double-digit wins in 10 of the past 14 seasons. Still, Pittsburgh is not quite as stable as the Patriots, and their stars have an injury history that could open the door.

And the Browns have the talent to take advantage. They were already decent defensively last year and have an improved secondary and a great young pass rush duo in Myles Garrett and Emmanuel Ogbah, but the real leap forward will come on offense. Cleveland ranked dead last in DVOA with an attack that was downright offensive, scoring just 14.6ppg. But the Browns retooled all their key skill positions, adding Jarvis Landry, Carlos Hyde, Nick Chubb, Antonio Callaway, and hopefully Josh Gordon.

And more importantly, they finally have a real quarterback. Two, in fact! Whether Tyrod Taylor or Baker Mayfield, Cleveland will field its best starting QB this millennium. No, seriously. The Browns have started 15 different QBs this decade, and I bet you can’t name five of them without looking. Taylor is solid. He’s competent. He doesn’t turn the ball over and he makes plays. And Baker Mayfield looks every bit the part of the #1 pick. He’s the real deal, shades of Drew Brees with his pocket presence and accuracy.

Now add Todd Haley, one of the best offensive coordinators in the game. Cleveland’s offense will not rank 32nd this year. They’ll probably rank in the top half of the league instead. With an offense and a defense that are both league-average or better, this team could contend for the playoffs.

But winning the division is too much to ask. It means overcoming a 13-win deficit from last year’s 0–16 record against Pittsburgh’s 13–3, and it means doing it against a brutal schedule that features Pittsburgh (x2), Baltimore (x2), and games against the difficult NFC South and AFC West. It’s a bit too much to ask. But the Browns are coming.

Wrong division, wrong year

6. Chicago Bears

There’s a lot to like about the Bears. They have a tough, talented defense, allowing fewer points than all but eight teams last year. They’ve added two brilliant offensive minds in head coach Matt Nagy and OC Mark Helfrich, who should help remake this sludgy offense. That could mean a Goff-esque jump for second-year QB Mitch Trubisky, especially with the help of Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Anthony Miller, and Trey Burton.

The Bears had the league’s hardest schedule, and they went 2–6 in one-score games. Improved coaching and offensive efficiency should swing some of those games. In another division or another year, they’d rank higher on this list. But winning the division means passing both the best quarterback in the game and the league’s best defense, and that’s a bridge too far.

The Bears will be tough. They could be this year’s 49ers, a team that makes a late season run and ruins a couple teams’ playoff chances. It’s just too much to ask for more than that.

Tight division battles should help

5. Denver Broncos

The Broncos went 5–5 with Trevor Siemian but 0–6 when forced to turn to Brock Osweiler or Paxton Lynch. Case Keenum looks more like Siemian than Osweiler or Lynch, and Denver will pack an extra punch out of the backfield with the fantasy-hyped Royce Freeman’s smooth burst too.

Still, this Broncos team is all about defense, the best one on this list. But the defense was relatively healthy last year and still fell to #10 in DVOA, in part because of a drop-off in the secondary where they’ve now lost Aqib Talib. The addition of rookie Bradley Chubb should help, but it’s fair to wonder just how great Denver’s defense is. If they can be top-3 again, maybe the 20th best offense is enough. If they’re just 8th or 10th best, that’s not going to cut it. The division appears winnable, but the Broncos just don’t have enough talent.

4. Indianapolis Colts

The argument for the Colts is easy: Andrew Luck. Luck has never had a healthy losing season, and a healthy Luck gives the Colts the best quarterback in the division. Of course, Luck is only 10–12 the last three years, and he might only be 85% or 60% healthy or worse. We just don’t know yet.

He still doesn’t have much help. The Colts have no run game, and the offensive line should take a step forward with the addition of stud first-round guard Quenton Nelson, but they’ll still be below average. The defense is still terrible. Both offense and defense ranked bottom six in DVOA last year.

The Colts will be better, but the Jaguars are still good, and the Titans and Texans should be much better too. This is one of the toughest divisions in football now, and just Andrew Luck may no longer be enough.

Not even vintage Luck.

The real worst-to-first contenders

3. New York Giants

It’s usually a good idea to put the team from the NFC East high on a list like this. It certainly worked last year. The NFC East is always unpredictable, and any divisional game feels like a toss-up. That means a close division battle.

This year’s NFC East may not be good. The Cowboys don’t have anyone that can catch the ball, and the vaunted offensive line is banged up. Washington downgraded at QB and still can’t run the ball unless Adrian Peterson turns back the clock five years. The Eagles don’t seem healthy. Alshon Jeffery and Jay Ajayi are already banged up, and Carson Wentz may not be ready Week 1. The Giants are the only team that appear to have an arrow pointing up.

It’s impossible to overstate just what adding Saquon Barkley and a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. can do for this offense. Eli Manning looked done last year, but he could be reborn with Barkley and OBJ and a new offensive whiz in Pat Shurmur that made Case Keenum look good. He’ll benefit from an improved offensive line with the additions of Nate Solder and Will Hernandez.

Just how far these Giants go will depend on a defense that was great two years ago before a terrible season. Were they really bad? Or were they just tired of being on the field all game thanks to a nothing offense?

The Giants passed on a franchise QB in the draft in the hope that theirs could make one more run with some talent around him. We’ll see if that bet pays off.

2. Houston Texans

The Texans are the hot pick to this worst-to-first question, and it’s easy to see why. No team in football welcomes back more talent with the return of Deshaun Watson and J.J. Watt, both of whom might be the best player in the division on their side of the ball. They also add Whitney Mercilus and Tyrann Mathieu, two hugely talented question marks to a defense full of them.

Unfortunately, Houston didn’t add much else. They didn’t have their top two draft picks, thanks to last year’s Watson and Osweiler moves. They didn’t improve their brutal offensive line much, and the defense that allowed the most points in the league last year still looks rough. The secondary is poor, and the defense is reliant on the aforementioned Watt, Mercilus, and Mathieu to stay healthy and make big plays.

The big plays will be glorious. There will be Honey Badger turnovers and strip sacks from Watt and Clowney. Deshaun Watson will make big time throws and runs. The best version of this Texans team is a Super Bowl contender.

Houston might be one of the highest variance team in the league. It’s easy to see a 12–4 season if everything clicks, but it’s just as easy to see Watson struggle while Watt and Honey Badger never make it all the way back and the Texans struggle to last place in a tough division. The Texans could do it, and it’ll be fun to watch them try. But there’s a better pick.

1. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers ended last season on a tear, going 5–0 under Jimmy Garoppolo. Of course, they also began the season 1–10 and looked set to grab the #1 pick in the draft. So which 49ers team was the real one?

The answer is … neither.

The 1–10 version were led by terrible QBs Brian Hoyer and C.J. Beathard, and they were nowhere near as bad as that looks. They lost five games by three or fewer points, playing hard despite being outmatched. The late season Niners caught a few teams at a downswing and rode a hot offense to huge points. Those things all even out. The 49ers finished 6–10 and were expected to win 6.7 games. They were a little below average.

They should be much better in 2018. Those 11 Hoyer and Beathard starts will belong to Jimmy G now, and the 49ers have added speedy weapons Jerick McKinnon and Dante Pettis to track star Marquise Goodwin and the return of the sure-handed Pierre Garcon. This offense should take a huge step forward in year two under Kyle Shanahan (see also: 2016 Falcons).

But the real strength of this Niners team comes up front. San Francisco’s defensive line will feature three recent first-round picks in Solomon Thomas, Arik Armstead, and DeForest Buckner, two of whom were hurt last year. The offensive line adds stud right tackle Mike McGlinchey to fellow first-round picks Joe Staley and Josh Garnett. That’s six first-rounders in the trenches, where battles are won and lost. The defense will be bolstered by young linebacking star Reuben Foster, and Richard Shermon’s attitude and professionalism could transform the secondary. The 49ers have been bad a long time, and they now have a lot of talent to show for it.

The NFC West feels open. The Cardinals aren’t good, and there are plenty of reasons to believe the Seahawks will struggle. The Rams went 11–5 but were the league’s most inconsistent team by DVOA, and they won four games by one score. They may not be the powerhouse contender everyone expects, especially if the defensive pieces don’t come together early.

The 49ers have a tough first six games, but the schedule opens up beautifully after that: Cardinals, Raiders, Giants, Bucs, Seahawks, Broncos, Seahawks, Bears, book-ended by a pair of games against the Rams. If the 49ers’ lines dominate and the offense comes together, those two Rams game could be for the division.

It may feel a year early for the Niners, but the Rams were a year early too. These 49ers are for real, and they just might be the next worst-to-first NFL division winner.

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