What player will lead each NFL team in receptions this year?

Catches matter, especially in PPR leagues, so who is the best bet to lead each team this season?

If you had to bet your life on any one NFL player leading his team in receptions this season, who would you pick? I asked my Twitter followers the same question and got a wild variety of answers. Antonio Brown and Julio Jones were popular picks. Some people went with possession guys like Jarvis Landry or Golden Tate. Others tried names like LeSean McCoy or Anthony Miller — been nice knowing those folks.

It matters who leads each team in catches, if nothing else because it matters in Points Per Reception (PPR) fantasy football leagues. Catches matter, and they mean more opportunities to rack up yards and touchdowns, too.

Brown, Jones, Landry, and Tate are indeed among the most likely names to lead their teams in catches this year, but which player is the likeliest? And what teams are almost impossible to predict? I ranked them 1 to 32 and made a pick for every team…

Stone cold locks

1. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans 2. Keenan Allen, Chargers 3. Antonio Brown, Steelers

Hopkins would be my pick. He’s been consistent, with 76+ catches four straight seasons. He’s produced when things have gone poorly — his QBs during that stretch are Deshaun Watson, Tom Savage, T.J. Yates, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, Brandon Weeden, Case Keenum, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. He also has no real competition. Houston’s second leading receiver last season was Lamar Miller with 36.

Allen and Brown seem just as safe. Allen is labeled injury-prone and his lacerated kidney was a fluke, but he’s had right-knee injuries three years in a row with repeated foot, shoulder, and groin problems. He’s also averaged 6.5 catches a game the last four years, so even 10 games gets him to 65, and that should be enough for the Chargers. Brown is a superduperstar we don’t appreciate enough. He’ll go down as one of the all-time wide receiver greats. Brown has recorded 101, 106, 136, 129, and 110 receptions the past five seasons, and he only even played 14 games.

Extremely safe bets

4. Golden Tate, Lions 5. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals 6. A.J. Green, Bengals 7. Julio Jones, Falcons

Golden Tate has 90+ catches in four straight seasons and had 31 more than any other Lion last year. Rumor has it that he’s not going to be on the field in 2-WR sets, but Detroit plays more 3-WR base than anyone in football.

Larry Fitzgerald has led the Cardinals in receptions 11 straight seasons. Fit that man for a Hall of Fame jacket. Arizona’s second leading receiver last year was Jermaine Gresham and Andre Ellington with 33 catches each. Fitz had 37 in December alone. That’s only slightly more than his age, which is the only reason he isn’t #1 on this list.

While we’re playing games, can you name the last player other than A.J. Green to lead the Bengals in receptions? Nope, not Chad Ochocinco, nor T.J. Houshmandzadeh. It was none other than Terrell Owens in 2010. Cincinnati drafted Green the next spring, and he’s led them ever since.

Julio Jones got drafted that same year. He’s been even more prolific but is seemingly always on the injury report. Still, he’s had 83+ receptions four straight seasons and missed only three games, so he should be safe.

The last of the sure things

8. Jarvis Landry, Browns 9. Doug Baldwin, Seahawks 10. Michael Thomas, Saints 11. Odell Beckham Jr., Giants 12. Mike Evans, Bucs

All five are pretty safe bets, but you can make a fair case against each. For Landry, that case is Josh Gordon. Maybe Gordon has a monster season, but he’s played ten games in four seasons. Landry has 94 catches in three straight seasons and should break the Browns single-season record of 89 with ease.

Baldwin is one of the best route runners in the league, and Seattle let their second and third leading receivers walk. The only way he doesn’t lead the Seahawks is if those injuries crop up again, and he’s been cleared for the season. Thomas had 196 catches his first two seasons. Drew Brees spreads the ball around, but he’s got a clear favorite in Thomas, and Alvin Kamara can only push his workload so far.

OBJ and Evans rank this high on talent, but there are enough injury question marks and talent around them to push them outside the top ten. Beckham is a stud, but he’s also averaging 12 games a season. Add to that the presence of Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard, who each caught 64+ passes in the last two years, and you can envision another path. Evans only led the Bucs by 10 catches last year but was 46 ahead in targets. He should lead them again unless Chris Godwin breaks out and steals his thunder.

The likelier of two options

13. Cole Beasley, Cowboys 14. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos 15. Travis Kelce, Chiefs 16. Davante Adams, Packers 17. T.Y. Hilton, Colts 18. Danny Amendola, Dolphins

The Cowboys have the worst receiving corps in the NFL with Dez Bryant and Jason Witten gone. Rookie Michael Gallup could be the playmaker, but Beasley is the dump-off guy and should lead the team at least this year. You probably think of Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders as 1a and 1b, but they’re pretty clearly 1 and 2. Thomas has played all 16 games with 83+ catches in six straight seasons. Sanders has been under 80 all but once and has never led the team in receptions, and he has a litany of injuries.

Travis Kelce is the first non-WR on the list. Kelce has 83 and 85 catches the last two years. The Chiefs are loaded, adding Sammy Watkins to Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt, but both Watkins and Tyreek are 3-to-5-touches-a-game guys that make big plays. Kelce is the workhorse. Adams outpaced Randall Cobb 74–66 last year and 75–64 the year before, so the pattern is set. Cobb hasn’t broken 100 targets since three years ago before Adams broke out, so it might be time to stop waiting for the old Cobb to return.

Hilton would be higher on this list if we knew he and Andrew Luck would stay healthy. Hilton’s had 57 and 69 catches his last two seasons with little or no Luck but at least 82 receptions in three seasons with him. Jack Doyle could push (80 catches last year) but Hilton will lead the way if Luck stays healthy.

Fantasy footballers are sleeping on Danny Amendola, who seems likely to step into the vacant Jarvis Landry role in Miami. Landry had 112 catches last year, twice any teammate. Amendola consistently catches 4+ passes a game and is healthier than you think, averaging 14 games a year the last four seasons. If he does that again, he should lead the Fins.

Tight end island

19. Zach Ertz, Eagles 20. Charles Clay, Bills 21. Greg Olsen, Panthers

Ertz is a stud and definitely the go-to receiver for Carson Wentz, but Wentz is still recovering from a torn ACL and Ertz misses a few games every year. But with Alshon Jeffery banged up too, Ertz should be a safe pick to lead the way.

Buffalo’s leading receiver last year was LeSean McCoy, but it’s pretty rare for a running back to lead the team and McCoy averaged 37 a year the previous three seasons. Kelvin Benjamin is a possibility, but he played at a 43-reception season pace in Buffalo last year. Clay is actually the best bet. He’s caught 57 balls a season the last five years and sadly, that’s good enough in Buffalo.

Olsen had 69+ catches in five nice seasons before last year, but he played nine straight healthy seasons before that. New Panthers offensive coordinator Norv Turner has committed to moving away some from Christian McCaffrey in the passing game, so Olsen should be the safe bet here.

Tough call but there’s a definite favorite

22. Corey Davis, Titans 23. Michael Crabtree, Ravens 24. Allen Robinson, Bears 25. Robby Anderson, Jets

Many would probably move the Titans up a section and pick Delanie Walker. He has 60 catches in five straight seasons, but he’s also 34 with a long injury history and is already dealing with a lower body injury. Davis played hurt as a rookie and still had 43 catches in 13 games, a 53-catch pace. That’s not bad for a rookie, and he closed the year strong.

All the buzz in Baltimore is for John Brown, but it could be all Smokey and mirrors. A healthy Brown could be a difference maker, but Crabtree has 100+ targets every season of his career and averages 4.6 catches a game. He should lead the team in receptions, even if Brown steals the headlines.

The Bears are another team you may be tempted to move up to Tight End Island with all the buzz Trey Burton is getting this preseason. He seems to be taking the Travis Kelce role in Matt Nagy’s new offense, and that could mean a ceiling of 80 catches. Of course he’s had only 63 catches in four NFL seasons so far, and Allen Robinson was brought in to lead the receiving corps. Burton could get there, but ARob is the safer bet.

If you play fantasy, you probably think Robby Anderson led the Jets in catches last year, but it was actually Jermaine Kearse. He led 65-63 in a tight race all year. Now the Jets return Quincy Enunwa and added Terrelle Pryor, but Anderson has the best rapport with his QBs and still looks the best bet.

The true 1A and 1B guys

26. Adam Thielen, Vikings 27. Pierre Garcon, 49ers 28. Amari Cooper, Raiders

Diggs is the more athletic Vikings receiver, but be careful about calling him more talented. Running polished routes and creating separation are talents too, and Thielen is as good as anyone. He had at least five catches in 13 games last year, while Diggs had five games with 0 to 2 catches and only had three games with more targets than Thielen. Add in the persistent injury concerns for Diggs, and Thielen is the safer bet.

It feels like Pierre Garcon barely played, but he actually had 40 receptions in eight games, an 80-catch pace. He’s had 4.3+ catches a game eight straight seasons, and he’s top-five on the active career receptions list. But here comes Marquise Goodwin, who ripped off a 93-catch pace during his time with Jimmy Garoppolo last season and looks like the go-to guy in San Francisco. Goodwin is not young, though, and part of the reason he has yet to break out is because his career has been plagued by injuries, including five concussions in an 18-month stretch. Goodwin is more exciting, but Garcon is the safer bet.

How many times has Amari Cooper led the Raiders in receptions? Did you guess zero? You probably did if you owned him in fantasy football last season. Cooper had only 48 catches, and while he’s finally out of Crabtree’s shadow, he might step right into one made by Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant. Cooper has also dealt with right-foot problems three of the last five seasons. Talent may prevail, but he’s not as heavy a favorite as you’d think.

The injury-prone stud tight end conundrum

29. Jamison Crowder, Redskins 30. Julian Edelman, Patriots

Rob Gronkowski and Jordan Reed are perhaps the two most talented tight ends in football, but neither can stay healthy. Gronk has missed significant time in three of eight seasons and has a playing style that just begets injuries. With Reed, you’re happy to make it through even 12 games, and his history of concussions is worse than Gronk’s injury list. Gronkowksi is going to miss a few games. Reed will miss even more.

Washington has a guy that always steps up when Reed is out, and that’s Jamison Crowder. He might get pushed by Chris Thompson, but Thompson is hurt a lot too, and newcomer Paul Richardson isn’t the type to rack up a big number of receptions. Crowder led the Skins with 66 catches last year and could eke out the win again.

Gronk isn’t even the only Patriot with injury question marks. That would be Julian Edelman, who averages an awesome 6.5 catches a game the last four years but who is also suspended four games and coming off an ACL tear at age 32. Chris Hogan’s career high is 41 catches, so Edelman is the best Pats WR bet, even in 10 or 11 games. We’ll bet on his health over Gronk’s.

31. Pull a name out of a hat

31. Brandin Cooks, Rams 32. Keelan Cole, Jaguars

Todd Gurley caught 64 passes to lead the Rams last year, with Cooper Kupp just behind him at 62. Robert Woods led the team in catches per game. And now they’ve added Brandin Cooks, who had 65 catches last year and even more as a Saint. Los Angeles is an extremely egalitarian offense, with equal chances for everyone. Gurley should regress a bit as a receiver, and Kupp will be stable but might be a bit out-talented. The Rams traded the #23 pick for Cooks, a much steeper price than they paid for Sammy Watkins, and they had all summer to incorporate him into their plans. He gets the nod.

And last of all is the Jacksonville Jaguars, whose wide receiver depth chart is basically a Choose Your Own Adventure. Marqise Lee led the team with 56 catches last year. Allen Hurns played only ten games but paced to 62, but he’s gone now. Dede Westbrook paced to 62 too but played only seven. Rookie D.J. Chark has gotten all the training camp buzz, and free agent Donte Moncrief brings a veteran presence. But we’re going with a guy you’ve probably never even heard of, Keelan Cole. Cole’s second-half production last year paces to 62 catches too, and he has speed to burn. He’s our Jacksonville pick, but feel free to pick anyone else — just keep them at the bottom of this list.

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