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Abstract

xon could be, but there’s no reason for such a big gamble in the top 20.</p><h2 id="7069">Dishonorable mention — RB Jordan Howard CHI</h2><h1 id="12a6">Round 3 — RB Jay Ajayi PHI</h1><p id="0384">How are we still doing this to ourselves? Ajayi is still living off of two 200-yard games against a terrible Buffalo defense in 2016. He’s averaging just 53 rushing yards in all the rest of his games. Ajayi doesn’t score TDs, just 11 in 38 games. He doesn’t catch balls, with more than two receptions just eight times in his career. He doesn’t stay healthy. He’s not going to get bell-cow work either. Ajayi had 128 carries in games for Philadelphia last year, counting their playoff run when his role increased. That projects to 186 carries for the year. I know you really need a RB, but you’re not going to find one here.</p><h2 id="13e2">Dishonorable mention — RB Alex Collins BAL</h2><div id="d73f" class="link-block"> <a href="https://readmedium.com/make-fantasy-football-great-again-10-quick-easy-ways-to-spice-up-your-league-nfl-667d05d6b43c"> <div> <div> <h2>Make Fantasy Football Great Again!!</h2> <div><h3>10 quick and easy ways to add some spice back into your league</h3></div> <div><p></p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*gSQ8CRx4K0IlygJYmXf1ug.jpeg)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><h1 id="f9c2">Round 4 — WR Amari Cooper OAK</h1><p id="89ad">Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times? That’s Amari Cooper in Round 4. Yes, Amari is very talented, but I’ve never seen a Points Per Talent league. Cooper has finished as a fantasy WR3 in two of his three seasons and regressed badly last year to the point that he was basically unplayable. He hasn’t proven to be a touchdown threat and he’s wildly inconsistent. In 46 career games, Cooper has 14 games with 3 catches or fewer. That’s a third of his career, a full season with line of 22 catches, 362 yards, and 5 TDs. Cooper has one huge game each season with 20+ points in standard leagues, and now he has to deal with a new coaching staff that might be ten years behind the learning curve plus added Oakland weapons in Jordy Nelson, Martavis Bryant, and Doug Martin. No thanks.</p><h2 id="3b38">Dishonorable mention — RB Kenyan Drake MIA</h2><h1 id="3c25">Round 5 — WR Chris Hogan NE</h1><p id="76d5">It feels like every fantasy analyst in the world is on Chris Hogan as a sleeper. He’s the #1 New England receiver! Who else are they going to throw to?! I’ll tell you who: Rob Gronkowski, a handful of RBs, and in a few weeks, Julian Edelman. People love to remind you how Hogan was a top-ten WR for a month last year. The part they forget is how that was entirely TD dependent and how every Hogan owner was desperately trying to sell high. Chris Hogan’s career-best season total was 41 receptions. He’ll be 31 in October. How many WRs break out in their 30s? Hogan is a TD threat on a team with the best redzone threat of all time and a running attack that consistently averages a TD a game. He’s barely among my top 50 WRs.</p><h2 id="d04c">Dishonorable mention — TE Jimmy Graham GB</h2><h1 id="5f0b">Round 6 — WR Will Fuller HOU</h1><p id="b66b">In two NFL seasons, Will Fuller has more than 62 yards four times. He has reached the endzone in six games over two years while averaging only about three catches a game. This is just a deep threat who can’t stay healthy and one that will madden you with his inconsistency. Even if he does live up to this value, he’ll do most of the scoring in three or four games. Good luck trying to figure out which ones it is.</p><h2 id="ffcf">Dishonorable mention — WR Alshon Jeffery PHI</h2><div id="923f" class="link-block"> <a href="https://readmedium.com/15-best-fantasy-football-podcasts-nfl-pod-gambling-espn-ringer-pff-action-network-rotoworld-aaeba8c648c2"

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            <h2>The best 15 fantasy football podcasts of 2018</h2>
            <div><h3>All you need for NFL and fantasy football in the podcast world</h3></div>
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    </div><h1 id="9f3e">Round 7 — RB Marlon Mack IND</h1><p id="722c">Andrew Luck is back! But that’s not necessarily good news for his RBs. In the five seasons Luck has actually played, the leading Colts runner has averaged 210 carries a season for under four yards per carry every single time. That comes out to about 800 rushing yards, and they also average under four rushing TDs and less than 30 receptions. Part of that is because Indy has typically used a committee, but that may be the case again with an unproven Mack and a couple talented rookies, and new coach Frank Reich loved RBBC in Philly. Add in a hamstring issue already for a speed RB and this is someone to stay far away from.</p><h2 id="ecf4">Dishonorable mention — WR Jordy Nelson OAK</h2><h1 id="987e">Round 8 — Jacksonville Defense</h1><p id="125d">Defenses are meant to be taken at the end of your draft and streamed by matchup. Jacksonville is a talented, fun defense playing six divisional games against teams who should all take a huge step forward offensively. Defenses are a dime a dozen in fantasy football, and they’re extremely volatile from year to year. You ready for a stat? Eleven DST in the last 15 seasons have averaged more than 10ppg and finished ranked #1 or 2. Here’s their rankings the following season: 3, 30, 18, 19, 23, 4, 16, 25, 8, 11, and 25. Only two of them were worth a moderately high pick, and more than half weren’t even worth starting. Don’t get cute. You’re six rounds too early.</p><h2 id="fd73">Dishonorable mention — WR Devin Funchess CAR</h2><h1 id="1fe8">Round 9 — WR Kelvin Benjamin BUF</h1><p id="f69d">The Bills have the least talent in the league on offense, and they’ll roll out the worst opening day starter at QB, whoever they choose. Benjamin should be the WR1 in Buffalo, which paced to a whopping 45 catches, 575 yards, and 2 TDs last year. He doesn’t stay healthy and is probably the third target behind Charles Clay and LeSean McCoy, and he’s likely to rotate between three bad quarterbacks all season. Benjamin’s greatest value has always been his size in the redzone. Hard for that to be an asset when the team is on the other half of the field all game.</p><h2 id="2fa6">Dishonorable mention — any other defense</h2><h1 id="7af8">Round 10 — WR D.J. Moore CAR</h1><p id="7606">Listen, I know you want to be the one who found this year’s hot rookie. But it’s hard to play wide receiver in the NFL, and most rookies take awhile to adjust. Carolina’s top WR will still be the team’s third target behind Greg Olsen and Christian McCaffrey, and Moore has to fight off Devin Funchess and last year’s high pick Curtis Samuel just among the WRs. He’s likely the 4th or 5th option in a running offense. No thanks in redrafts.</p><h2 id="ac37">Dishonorable mention — QB Matt Ryan ATL</h2><p id="a0ea"><i>Follow Brandon on Medium or <a href="https://twitter.com/wheatonbrando">@wheatonbrando</a> for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s <a href="https://readmedium.com/brandon-anderson-writing-archives-6b3ee1a29301#.6cteu050v">writing archives here</a>.</i></p><figure id="3b76"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*YnbtD8IipCsqVjNwkjtY8w.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure id="2ba5"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*d318hSQDEA-NP2sgKkTINw.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure id="0963"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*jwbMPAfFsxT_PGFz7US69Q.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure></article></body>

10 Rounds, 10 Busts

It’s not who you draft in fantasy football but who you avoid. One bust to avoid in each of the first 10 rounds…

Sometimes in life, the moves you don’t make are just as good as the ones you do. That’s just as true in fantasy football. Remember when your trade offer got rejected and the player you were stuck with broke out a week later?

In preparing for a fantasy draft, we focus so much on who to draft that sometimes we forget about the other end of the spectrum — who to stay away from. Fantasy football is about range of outcomes. We can predict median outcome and what a good or disappointing season might look like, but we can only guess which outcome you’ll get. But some players are drafted at median value while others are under- or over-valued.

Each round of 12 typically has about four guys that just don’t make sense at their average draft position. If you figure out who those guys are and avoid them, you’ve increased your odds of success on any pick from 33% to 50% without even analyzing the good players.

Sometimes it’s not who you draft but who you avoid. Below are 10 players to avoid at their current their current ADP. That’s one less guy each round to sort through and one step closer to finding the hidden gems…

5 fantasy football studs that could kill your season

5 top-15 picks you MUST avoid in your fantasy draft

Round 1 — RB Leonard Fournette JAX

Fournette is old school. He’s a workhorse who wants the ball 25 times a game, wants to wear down the defense. That worked last year as Fournette racked up carries and scored a TD in 9 of his 13 games for the smashmouth Jaguars. But this year’s Jags face a much tougher schedule. Fournette averaged an ugly 3.9 yards per carry, and that drops to 3.56 if you take away one breakaway TD. He was under 4 YPC in 9 of 13 games. His workhorse style leaves him constantly banged up. He missed games twice last year and was often hurt or playing through injury in college, and now he just had the biggest workload of his career. Fournette doesn’t pile up yards, and though he’s improving as a receiver, he doesn’t stand out there yet either. He’s being drafted at his peak and has to continue racking up TDs to bring 1st-round value. There are just too many things that can go wrong here.

Dishonorable mention — RB Melvin Gordon LAC

Round 2 — RB Joe Mixon CIN

Where were you the first time you found out Joe Mixon is a 2nd-round pick this year? It’s a shocking ADP for a guy who was so disappointing his rookie season. Mixon mustered an awful 3.5 yards per carry and didn’t show much shake or burst, with the longest carry of his career just 25 yards. Cincinnati’s offensive line isn’t good, and the team isn’t either, yet Mixon and A.J. Green are both going in the first two rounds? Mixon finally started getting more work late last season, then left two games early in December injured. He’s supposedly leaner and ready for bell-cow status but has never handled a full workload, not even in college. It’s easy to see what Mixon could be, but there’s no reason for such a big gamble in the top 20.

Dishonorable mention — RB Jordan Howard CHI

Round 3 — RB Jay Ajayi PHI

How are we still doing this to ourselves? Ajayi is still living off of two 200-yard games against a terrible Buffalo defense in 2016. He’s averaging just 53 rushing yards in all the rest of his games. Ajayi doesn’t score TDs, just 11 in 38 games. He doesn’t catch balls, with more than two receptions just eight times in his career. He doesn’t stay healthy. He’s not going to get bell-cow work either. Ajayi had 128 carries in games for Philadelphia last year, counting their playoff run when his role increased. That projects to 186 carries for the year. I know you really need a RB, but you’re not going to find one here.

Dishonorable mention — RB Alex Collins BAL

Make Fantasy Football Great Again!!

10 quick and easy ways to add some spice back into your league

Round 4 — WR Amari Cooper OAK

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times? That’s Amari Cooper in Round 4. Yes, Amari is very talented, but I’ve never seen a Points Per Talent league. Cooper has finished as a fantasy WR3 in two of his three seasons and regressed badly last year to the point that he was basically unplayable. He hasn’t proven to be a touchdown threat and he’s wildly inconsistent. In 46 career games, Cooper has 14 games with 3 catches or fewer. That’s a third of his career, a full season with line of 22 catches, 362 yards, and 5 TDs. Cooper has one huge game each season with 20+ points in standard leagues, and now he has to deal with a new coaching staff that might be ten years behind the learning curve plus added Oakland weapons in Jordy Nelson, Martavis Bryant, and Doug Martin. No thanks.

Dishonorable mention — RB Kenyan Drake MIA

Round 5 — WR Chris Hogan NE

It feels like every fantasy analyst in the world is on Chris Hogan as a sleeper. He’s the #1 New England receiver! Who else are they going to throw to?! I’ll tell you who: Rob Gronkowski, a handful of RBs, and in a few weeks, Julian Edelman. People love to remind you how Hogan was a top-ten WR for a month last year. The part they forget is how that was entirely TD dependent and how every Hogan owner was desperately trying to sell high. Chris Hogan’s career-best season total was 41 receptions. He’ll be 31 in October. How many WRs break out in their 30s? Hogan is a TD threat on a team with the best redzone threat of all time and a running attack that consistently averages a TD a game. He’s barely among my top 50 WRs.

Dishonorable mention — TE Jimmy Graham GB

Round 6 — WR Will Fuller HOU

In two NFL seasons, Will Fuller has more than 62 yards four times. He has reached the endzone in six games over two years while averaging only about three catches a game. This is just a deep threat who can’t stay healthy and one that will madden you with his inconsistency. Even if he does live up to this value, he’ll do most of the scoring in three or four games. Good luck trying to figure out which ones it is.

Dishonorable mention — WR Alshon Jeffery PHI

The best 15 fantasy football podcasts of 2018

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Round 7 — RB Marlon Mack IND

Andrew Luck is back! But that’s not necessarily good news for his RBs. In the five seasons Luck has actually played, the leading Colts runner has averaged 210 carries a season for under four yards per carry every single time. That comes out to about 800 rushing yards, and they also average under four rushing TDs and less than 30 receptions. Part of that is because Indy has typically used a committee, but that may be the case again with an unproven Mack and a couple talented rookies, and new coach Frank Reich loved RBBC in Philly. Add in a hamstring issue already for a speed RB and this is someone to stay far away from.

Dishonorable mention — WR Jordy Nelson OAK

Round 8 — Jacksonville Defense

Defenses are meant to be taken at the end of your draft and streamed by matchup. Jacksonville is a talented, fun defense playing six divisional games against teams who should all take a huge step forward offensively. Defenses are a dime a dozen in fantasy football, and they’re extremely volatile from year to year. You ready for a stat? Eleven DST in the last 15 seasons have averaged more than 10ppg and finished ranked #1 or 2. Here’s their rankings the following season: 3, 30, 18, 19, 23, 4, 16, 25, 8, 11, and 25. Only two of them were worth a moderately high pick, and more than half weren’t even worth starting. Don’t get cute. You’re six rounds too early.

Dishonorable mention — WR Devin Funchess CAR

Round 9 — WR Kelvin Benjamin BUF

The Bills have the least talent in the league on offense, and they’ll roll out the worst opening day starter at QB, whoever they choose. Benjamin should be the WR1 in Buffalo, which paced to a whopping 45 catches, 575 yards, and 2 TDs last year. He doesn’t stay healthy and is probably the third target behind Charles Clay and LeSean McCoy, and he’s likely to rotate between three bad quarterbacks all season. Benjamin’s greatest value has always been his size in the redzone. Hard for that to be an asset when the team is on the other half of the field all game.

Dishonorable mention — any other defense

Round 10 — WR D.J. Moore CAR

Listen, I know you want to be the one who found this year’s hot rookie. But it’s hard to play wide receiver in the NFL, and most rookies take awhile to adjust. Carolina’s top WR will still be the team’s third target behind Greg Olsen and Christian McCaffrey, and Moore has to fight off Devin Funchess and last year’s high pick Curtis Samuel just among the WRs. He’s likely the 4th or 5th option in a running offense. No thanks in redrafts.

Dishonorable mention — QB Matt Ryan ATL

Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.