5 fantasy football studs that could kill your season

Not every top pick is safe. These five top-15 picks look set to disappoint.

You hear it every year — you can’t win your fantasy football league in the first few rounds, but you can lose it. You hear it because it’s true. You can always find sleepers and values later in the draft or on waivers, but grabbing the wrong stud with your first pick can doom your entire year.

In fantasy football, one of the most important skills is finding the right players to avoid. No one needs to be avoided completely, but many players are not worth their draft position. Despite that, Fantasy Football Calculator’s ADP shows that the top 15 is locked in for drafts this year:

1. RB Todd Gurley LAR 2. RB LeVeon Bell PIT 3. RB Ezekiel Elliott DAL 4. RB David Johnson ARI 5. RB Saquon Barkley NYG 6. WR Antonio Brown PIT 7. RB Alvin Kamara NO 8. RB Leonard Fournette JAX 9. RB Melvin Gordon LAC 10. RB Kareem Hunt KC 11. WR DeAndre Hopkins HOU 12. RB Dalvin Cook MIN 13. WR Odell Beckham, Jr. NYG 14. WR Julio Jones ATL 15. RB Jordan Howard CHI

Those 15 guys are going first in almost every standard draft, and they’re almost always going in that exact order. Those 15 picks haven’t changed for months, and the order has barely even moved. Since July 1, that list has remained static with two tiny Giant exceptions — Saquon Barkley has moved up one spot ahead of Antonio Brown, while Odell Beckham has slid one spot behind Dalvin Cook. That’s it. Everything else is on lock. The entire fantasy world has decided these are the top-15 players this year.

Groupthink is dangerous anywhere, and fantasy football is no different. This year drawing a number in your draft order practically assigns your first player or two, but it doesn’t have to be that way! Maybe Todd Gurley isn’t the #1 pick. Maybe Antonio Brown isn’t the top WR off the board. What if some of these players aren’t top-15 picks at all!?

Five players in particular look like they may not be worth their current draft slots. These are the five guys that could ruin your entire fantasy season.

RB Jordan Howard CHI

Did you notice anything in common with the top-15 list? Everyone except for Howard and David Johnson play on a team expected to be competitive. Rams, Steelers, Chargers, Jags, Falcons, these are playoff teams for most — even the Cowboys and Giants are expected to be in the mix. No one thinks the Bears or Cardinals will be good, and that means a lot of time trailing and lots of passing. That’s great news for David Johnson, but not so much for Howard.

Howard has a new coach in Matt Nagy, former Chiefs offensive coordinator. Nagy helped turn Kareem Hunt into a top-five fantasy RB — but the Chiefs were a lot better, ahead in many of their games, and Hunt is a far better receiver than Howard. Hunt’s numbers flattered him. He had a nine-game stretch without a TD, which included a seven-game stretch of under 100 rushing yards. Hunt’s rushing workload was also super inconsistent. He had six games with 20+ carries but six others with 13 or fewer.

Jordan Howard’s value is all about workload, and his workload may not be as steady as you think. The Bears should get Tarik Cohen the ball more often this year a la Tyreek Hill, and Chicago remade their receiving corps with the additions of Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Anthony Miller, and Trey Burton. Howard just isn’t going to see the ball as often.

Howard feels more like a rushed pick just to get a RB before the workhorses are gone when there are more valuable players at other positions. At the end of the 2nd or later, Howard may make sense, but things are trending in the wrong direction for him to be a top-15 building block.

WR DeAndre Hopkins HOU

There’s a clear top-four WRs. Antonio Brown is first, and he’s more than proven his merit. Before last year’s injury-plagued campaign, Odell Beckham Jr. had three years with at least 90 catches, 1300 yards, and 10 TDs. There have been only 55 such seasons in NFL history. OBJ did it each of his first three, and he’s one of five players ever to post those numbers three straight seasons. Julio Jones has 1400+ yards in four straight seasons and is due for a massive TD bump, especially since he was a huge red zone target last year. These three are proven studs with top WR production year after year. They’re consistent.

And then there’s DeAndre Hopkins.

Hopkins had a monster year, leading the league with 13 receiving TDs on top of 96 catches and 1,378 yards. But the year before that he played all 16 and finished with an ugly 78/954/4 line. In 2015 Hopkins broke out with career highs 111 receptions and 1,521 yards! But the year before that he had just an okay year at 76/1210/6. Hopkins has finished as WR1, WR38, WR6, and WR15 over those four years. Not exactly the model of consistency.

If you’ve read any fantasy analysis at all, you’ve probably read about a huge regression coming for Deshaun Watson, how he can’t possibly keep throwing a TD every 10.7 passes. That’s true, and it means less TDs for the receivers. Remember how Hopkins led the NFL with 13 receiving TDs last year? He had only 23 his first four years combined. That Hopkins TD rate is due a big regression, and so is his yards per catch. That leaves Hopkins relying on volume, and his volume is inconsistent — he had more than 4 catches only 10 times last year. And Houston’s other receivers are healthy now, so Hopkins may see his workload go down, not up.

I like DeAndre Hopkins, and he’s a good bet to finish as a top-10 WR. But a WR drafted in this range needs potential to finish as the #1 WR. Hopkins did that last year but you’re getting this year’s stats, so you’re paying for past production instead of what’s likely to come. Hopkins has to reach last year’s numbers to justify this selection, and his unreliable history make that less than likely.

RB Melvin Gordon LAC

Gordon is the 8th RB off draft boards, and that seems fair considering he’s finished top-eight the past two seasons. But are we sure Melvin Gordon is even a good running back?

Gordon has a career 3.8 yards per carry (YPC), abysmal for a guy with over 700 carries. He’s been under 4 YPC every year, and he was under that mark in half his games last year. Were it not for one breakaway 87-yard TD, Gordon would’ve had an awful 3.6 YPC for the season. That’s just not good, and backup Austin Ekeler blew him out of the water in efficiency metrics.

Gordon is a top-8 RB in volume alone. He had 342 touches last year but ranked just 22nd among RBs in fantasy points per touch. He is not going to give you consistent rushing yards and may struggle to hit even 1,000, so you are depending on TDs and receptions. Gordon’s receptions spiked from 33 and 41 to 58 last year. He’s recorded 12 TDs in back-to-back years but weirdly had 0 on 217 rookie touches.

There are shades of inconsistency hidden throughout Gordon’s numbers. He’s found the end zone in just 18 of 43 career games, a pace that would mean a TD in only six or seven games this year. He’s had 100+ rushing yards only 5 times ever but has been at 60 or fewer a whopping 22 times, more than 50% of the time. Gordon’s had 1 or no catches 17 times. Does this sound like the rock you want to build your fantasy team around?

The optimist would point out that Gordon’s workload is increasing, and what if he finally adds the rushing yards on an improved Chargers team? The realist would remember that 722 carries tell us Gordon isn’t a good runner, and that maybe that big workload last year should be a worry for a guy that missed five games injured his first two years.

How many points do you expect from your first pick each week? Let’s say 15. Gordon did that only five times last year, and he’s done it only 12 times in his career. Of course he’s had four 27-point games and those win an entire week, but they don’t do much good when he puts up 6 or fewer points the next week — which he’s done 14 times, by the way.

Gordon’s probably going to have some good games this year. Just hope you avoid facing one of those few games on your opponent and find a more consistent player for your team.

RB Leonard Fournette JAX

Fournette was last year’s breakout rookie, but he might be this year’s disappointing sophomore. Like Melvin Gordon, Fournette has struggled to rack up rushing yards. He had a 3.9 YPC, and that number drops to an awful 3.56 if you take away the 90-yard breakaway TD he scored in the final minutes of a blowout. In fact, Fournette was below 4 YPC in 9 of 13 games.

Fournette played in only 13 games last year. He missed games to injury two different times, and that continues a trend we saw in college. Fournette always seems to be nicked, and now he’s coming off a year in which he recorded 381 punishing touches (counting the playoffs). It’s not reasonable to expect Fournette will be healthy all year.

Fournette’s greatest value last year was how often he reached the endzone, finding pay dirt in 9 of 13 games. That’s great, but it also relies on the Jaguars to continue to play at a high level this year with a more difficult schedule and a target on their backs. And, you know, Blake Bortles. If the Jags aren’t as good, those TDs may fade a bit. So too some of Fournette’s workload racked up nursing big leads in the fourth quarter.

Fantasy RBs can score points with rushing yards, rushing TDs, or catching the ball. Fournette doesn’t do much yet receiving, and he isn’t efficient running, under 70 yards in over half his games. He’s going to need to keep eating TDs to be worth a top-10 pick, which means you need the Jaguars to keep dominating like they did last year.

That’s just not a bet I’m willing to take in the first round. It’s possible we’ve already seen Leonard Fournette’s fantasy upside.

RB Todd Gurley LAR

This one hurts.

I was Todd Gurley’s biggest proponent last year. He was the best value on my draft board and I had him in all but one league, riding him to a number of championships. He was incredible, and honestly I think he’ll be good again, probably a top-five RB.

But I wouldn’t take him at #1.

The argument against Gurley is not as strong as the guys above, but there are tiny worrying signs. The biggest reason for concern is Gurley’s TD numbers. Gurley led the league with 13 rushing TDs. He scored a TD on 4.7% of his rushes last year after just 3.2% the rest of his career, a nearly 50% increase. He also caught a whopping six TDs after not having a single receiving TD the rest of his career. Both TD numbers are likely to come down. His rushing TDs should finish somewhere in the 6 to 10 range, like it did his first two seasons. And those 6 receiving TDs are likely to drop to 2, 1, or even 0.

There’s also a bit of workload concern. Gurley is coming off almost 700 touches the last two seasons. By contrast, Ezekiel Elliott and David Johnson missed huge chunks of last season and come into the year fresh. LeVeon Bell has seen monster workload years but all signs point to another one in the final year of his contract. Gurley has always seen a lot of carries for the Rams and he’s usually been durable, but you might rather have the fresher runner.

You might also want the more proven runner. Bell has been a beast year after year. Zeke has been a monster whenever on the field. Johnson hasn’t started as many games, but he’s scored 25 TDs in 22 starts and had 100+ combined yards in all but three of them (twice in meaningless Week 17 games and once when he left hurt). Gurley had a good rookie year, a busted sophomore year, then last year. He’s scored under 15 fantasy points in 26 of his 44 games.

Again, this is not a strong case against Todd Gurley. He’s really good, and I’d take him in the top-five. But I wouldn’t take him #1, and I don’t think he should be the consensus top pick.

The top 15 ADP may be locked, but that doesn’t mean you have to just take the assigned player when you get your draft order. Do your research and grab the right guy. You may get mocked on draft day, but you’ll be the one laughing when your opponents’ top picks disappoint all year long.

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