Everybody Wants to Rule the World

NBA Predictions, Tiers, and Fears for the 2018-19 Season

The NBA is a mad world. Let’s put some order to it and rank all 30 teams in eight tiers, plus some season predictions

All around me are familiar faces Worn out places, worn out faces Bright and early for their daily races Going nowhere, going nowhere

It was 35 years ago when British pop rock sensation Tears for Fears first began singing about the NBA regular season. The NBA is back, and it all feels a little familiar. The Celtics got their guys back. The Raptors traded for a superstar. The Sixers grew up. The Rockets swapped out role players. In this mad NBA world, all these familiar faces in worn out places have fans ready for daily races as a new season dawns. But as the dulcet tones of Tears for Fears give way to the Warriors Rains of Castamere playing ominously in the background, perhaps it’s worth wondering: are we all simply going nowhere, going nowhere?

It’s Year 3 of the KD Warriors era, and we’re still searching for answers. But not every face is in a familiar place. LeBron James is wearing purple and gold, Kawhi Leonard has moved north, and Luka Doncic and DeAndre Ayton are finally here. The Warriors and Celtics already sit atop the league standings after just one night. But will they finish there at season’s end?

It’s time for a full 2018-19 blowout preview, complete with a ranking of all 30 teams divided into eight tidy tiers. The tiers themselves are fluid, so teams are pretty even within a tier. It’s the separation between the tiers that matters. Teams can move up or down within their tier, but it’ll surprise me if they finish more than one tier away from where I’ve slotted them.

Alright, enough preamble. Let’s rank the 29 teams searching for a way to knock off the champs. After all, everybody wants to rule the world…

Tier I — The Champs

1. Golden State Warriors

There’s just one team in the top tier, and you’re fooling yourself if you believe otherwise. I’m hearing people say the Eastern champ will have a 40 or 45% chance against the Warriors in the Finals. Nonsense. Match the Celtics up against the Ws. Golden State is better at literally all five starting positions. But the Boston bench though!! Iggy over Smart. Livingston over Scary Terry. Just stop. The Warriors are the heavy favorites as long as KD is in town, and KD is in town as long as they are heavy favorites.

Tier II — The Teams that Can Push Them

2. Houston Rockets 3. Boston Celtics 4. Toronto Raptors

These are the teams that can win a 1-seed or push the Warriors in a postseason series. And yes, they could absolutely beat them with a little injury luck, winning a couple close games late, superior coaching, and some help from the bench units, but not 40% of the time.

The Rockets get the top spot. I thought the offseason was confusing too, but Houston returns the four best players from a team that coasted to 65 wins and was darn near undefeated when the core was healthy. I’m not sure James Ennis will be a real downgrade from 33-year-old Ariza, so the only real loss is replacing all-defense LRMAM with no-defense Melo. Melo won’t have a place against the Ws but LRMAM didn’t either since he was hurt, and Melo can score on most bench units. The Rockets should be really good again, even better if they get anything out of Brandon Knight or Marquese Chriss.

The Celtics are the deserving East favorite, but it’s oversimplifying it to just say they’re adding two top-25 guys to a roster that was already the best non-LeBron one out East. Kyrie Irving played 60 games last year and averages 63 games per season in his career. Gordon Hayward is back on the court, but it would be silly to just assume he’s back to his pre-injury self. There could be some growing pains. It took Paul George almost two years to get whole, and Hayward touches mean less time on the ball for Tatum, Brown, and Rozier — and Kyrie, for that matter. Pretty much everyone on this team will have a different role. They’re still so deep and so good defensively that they should roll through the regular season, but this team will need to find itself.

Call me crazy, but the Raptors are the team I’m most intrigued to see the Warriors face. Toronto’s so deep Norman Powell and Greg Monroe are outside its 10-man rotation, and they can put together some nasty defensive lineups. Imagine a lineup of Lowry, Green, OG, Kawhi, and Siakim. That team is impossible to score on, switching everything with two shutdown defenders, and they’d score just fine too. That team can also have the best player on the court for stretches, if Kawhi is really back and can best Kevin Durant (like he has much of his career). Toronto will take time to gel, and it’s an older roster at the top where an injury to Leonard or Lowry could derail the regular season, but this is the team I’m most intrigued by come playoff time.

Tier III — Defense Travels

5. Philadelphia 76ers 6. Oklahoma City Thunder 7. Utah Jazz

These three teams look like good bets to host a playoff series, and it’s because of the strength of their defenses. Defense travels in the NBA, and it’s typically pretty consistent from night to night. That means a lot of regular season wins, even when the shots aren’t falling.

Many would move Philadelphia up a tier. I’m not there yet. I’d love to see Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid take the next step, and I can’t wait to see what Markelle Fultz adds to this team, but I think the 76ers are going to go through some growing pains on offense. Embiid isn’t efficient with his touches yet, and more teams will sag off of Simmons like opponents did in the playoffs. Maybe that’s why Philly plans on starting Fultz, to give them a second handler, but now you’re running the offense through a rookie point guard who may not have any shot or confidence. It’s the right move long-term — Philly needs to see what it has, and a title this year isn’t the ultimate goal — but there will be hiccups along the way.

I was in on Oklahoma City before the injury news with Westbrook and Roberson beginning the season sidelined. Carmelo Anthony is addition by subtraction, and his absence should leave OKC with a terrific defense. I kind of like Dennis Schroeder’s addition, a bench piece they haven’t had since Reggie Jackson, and Patrick Patterson could be like a new signing if healthy. I thought the healthy Thunder could contend for the West 1-seed.

The Jazz are everyone’s darling, and they’ll be a delight to watch. They didn’t add to last year’s team but should get a healthier season from Rudy Gobert, and I expect a much stronger season from Jae Crowder. I’m not sold on the offense yet. Can Donovan Mitchell carry an entire offense all season at age 21? NBA growth is never linear. We can’t just assume Spida and Simmons will just keep getting better. Growth hurts sometimes.

Tier IV — The Upper Middle Class

8. Denver Nuggets 9. Los Angeles Lakers

This tiny tier is meant to provide some separation between the top of the league and everyone else. Te Nuggets and Lakers feel like they’re on the cusp of both groups.

I really like the Nuggets. Nikola Jokic, Gary Harris, and Jamal Murray are underrated, and Paul Millsap should be healthy after giving this team almost nothing last season. Those four and Will Barton is an excellent all-around lineup that will be super fun to watch as the Nuggets quickly become everyone’s second or third favorite team. I loved the Isaiah Thomas signing. Denver lost a significant number of games last year because they had one of the worst backup PG situations in the league. IT fixes that and adds needed veteran leadership and toughness. I like everything about the Nuggets… except for their defense. They’re safely in the Western playoffs and could zoom past 50 wins if their defense is even below average.

I’ve come around on the Lakers, a little. That’s partly to the falloff of other Western contenders, partly realizing a few strengths I initially overlooked, and part LeBron. The Lakers are going to make the playoffs. They have LeBron, and the West isn’t as ferocious as it seems. I think only six teams win 45, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the final playoff team finishes around .500. The Lakers only goal should be the 6- or 7-seed. Avoid the Warriors until the Conference Finals, then let LeBron win a road game and flip a series.

This is not the Lakers team we’ll see in April. There will be buyout additions, and probably a trade or two. LeBron teams always change drastically from October to April. And even if they’re still there, the April version of Ingram, Lonzo, Hart, and Kuzma won’t be the same one we’ve got now. Each will grow so much, and each will have a defined role instead of being asked to deliver too much for a bad team. Outside of center, I really like the rebounding and defensive talent. And they’re going to score a lot of easy points. LeBron, Ball, and Rondo make this the league’s most deadly transition team, and they’ll run off make or miss so every possession will be a semi-transition.

The defense could be rough without a real center. LeBron ain’t it, not in the regular season. L.A. tried Kuzma some in preseason, and couldn’t Lance Stephenson bully some opponents as a small-ball P.J. Tucker-esque center? JaVale McGee will contribute. Moe Wagner can play a few minutes. Center is the easiest spot in the NBA to fill. The Lakers will be fine, and as long as LeBron stays healthy, they’ll be in the playoffs.

A note here on the tier separation: that’s three East and six West teams so far. There are no East teams in this tier, and that’s because I feel strongly that Boston, Toronto, and Philly are a ways ahead of everyone else. The West is a bit muddier because the middle is so deep, but the Nuggets and Lakers are better at the top and deeper than the rest of their competition, and they’re the last two teams I’m confident will make the Western playoffs. Everyone else is fighting for the last two spots.

Tier V — The Soggy Middle

(10. Minnesota Timberwolves) 10. Milwaukee Bucks 11. New Orleans Pelicans 12. Washington Wizards 13. Indiana Pacers 14. Portland Trail Blazers 15. Memphis Grizzlies 16. Miami Heat (17. Minnesota Timberwolves)

Welcome to the soggy middle of the NBA. These teams should win 40 games but not 50, and they’re all good enough to win one playoff series but it’ll need to be against the right opponent. The order is based mostly on upside.

That’s why the Bucks and Pelicans are at the top. Giannis and Brow lift the ceiling above the others, even if the rosters aren’t the strongest. I’m not totally ready to believe in the Bucks, but I love Mike Budenholzer, and so many smart NBA people are in on Milwaukee that I’m inclined to follow. I’m not sure what step Antetokounmpo still has left; maybe one for April and May. I feel like I’m always down on the Pelicans, but I’m worried about Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday coming off the longest seasons of their careers on a team that can’t afford to lose either for even a month. The Pels got hot late and caught the perfect playoff matchup and now we’re overrating them. I think they could miss the playoffs.

The Wizards, Pacers and Blazers feel like tough first-round outs. Washington’s big three are entering their prime and won 43 games even in a lost John Wall season. Austin Rivers and Jeff Green are what they are, but they upgrade this bench in a big way. Washington should contend for a 3- or 4-seed with the age and cost of this roster but… Dwight Howard. The Pacers are talented and deep and fit well. I fear a slight step back from Oladipo, probably Collison and Tyreke too, all of whom had career years. Indy’s best doesn’t measure up with the top teams, but its depth should make it a solid playoff team. With the Blazers, they’re only like my tenth favorite West team if everyone’s healthy, but Dame and C.J. stay healthy and grind out wins each year and I expect them to stay in the mix as other teams lose injury time.

The Grizzlies look fun if healthy, but that feels purely hypothetical at this point. Forget Parsons, Conley and Gasol are barely ever healthy either, and the Grizz only won 42 and 43 games the last two seasons with both moderately healthy (and younger). I like the additions of JJJ, SloMo, and Temple, and this is a high IQ team that won’t beat itself, but it feels like they’ll either see a win total in the 30s or take the opportunity to sell off Conley and Gasol if they’re on pace for more.

The Heat being at the bottom of this tier are why they should trade for Jimmy Butler. Adding Butler jumps them to the top of the tier and a contender for a home playoff series. Still, it’s a deep versatile playoff team either way. The theoretical Wolves rank atop of this tier or, really, the one above. But that dream is gone now. This team has turned on each other, and it’s hard to see anything but Butler getting traded, Thibs getting fired, or hopefully both. With KAT and Wiggins and whatever they get for Jimmy, Minnesota is at the bottom of this tier, with enough talent to conceive of it coming together for a playoff run but not a lot of optimism for it to happen this year.

Tier VI — They Can Get in But Not Win a Series

18. San Antonio Spurs 19. Los Angeles Clippers 20. Dallas Mavericks 21. Charlotte Hornets 22. Detroit Pistons 23. Orlando Magic

I was all set to talk myself into the Spurs one more time until the Dejounte Murray and Derrick White injuries. San Antonio’s deal is grinding out games with defense, depth, and coaching. The depth is gone now, and so are the best four defenders from last year. Pop is a magician, but even he can’t turn DDR, Gay, LMA, and Pau into a playoff unit. This is the third or fourth worth roster in the West, and if the jersey said anything else, no one would even be considering them for the playoffs.

The Clippers and Mavs rosters are much more interesting. Los Angeles has like 12 guys that deserve to be in a playoff rotation, which should help offset the injury risk their best guys face. Doc Rivers is at his best overachieving with a roster like this. Dallas is interesting with Dennis Smith Jr. and Luka Doncic plus the addition of DeAndre Jordan, but two young handlers and a lack of depth could doom this team from making a real run in a deep conference.

The Hornets, Pistons, and Magic fight for the final playoff spot in the East, “fight” being pretty generous there. I like the Hornets best. Kemba Walker gets a little better every year, and I like the new coaching system fit. Charlotte has balance and an identity, more depth than last year, and a sneaky watchable League Pass squad. They remind me of last year’s Pacers. The Pistons are bleh. They haven’t had a decent wing in years, and the Blake-Drummond pairing doesn’t make sense. Wings are to Detroit what guards are to Orlando, where they’re somehow relying on D.J. Augustin and Jerian Grant to run an NBA offense in 2018. I like the Magic defenders under Steve Clifford, but where will the scoring come from?

Tier VII — Smoke and Mirrors

24. Brooklyn Nets 25. Cleveland Cavaliers 26. Phoenix Suns 27. Chicago Bulls

We’re fresh out of good teams.

The Nets will try hard every night under Kenny Atkinson, but the roster is full of fourth-to-eighth-best men. Guys like DeMarre Carroll, Kenneth Faried, and Ed Davis will be nice buyout options this spring. DeMarre on the Rockets! Faried on the Lakers! The Nets have their first-round pick for the first time since 1987. It’s true, look it up.

The last time LeBron left Cleveland, they lost 42 games the next season. Wait sorry, the last time LeBron left, the Cavs lost 42 more games. That team returned its second- to fifth-highest minute guys too, and they didn’t have Kevin Love but they had Antawn Jamison who is at an eerily similar stage of his career. These are not those Cavs, but they’re not a playoff roster either, not even in the LeBron-less East. You watched these guys last May, right? Now they swapped out the best player this century for a rookie point guard they need to give minutes to. The Cavs will make LeBron’s MVP argument for him.

The Suns and Bulls are bad, but at least the Suns are interesting. They seem insistent on trying for awhile, which means minutes for guys like Ariza, Crawford, and Anderson instead of Bridges, Melton, Bender, and Okobo. It feels like their priority in March could be a DeAndre Ayton Rookie of the Year push. The Bulls won’t even have that. They’ll go neck-and-neck with the Suns for league’s worst defense. Chicago at least has a front court of the future in Markkanen and Carter, so this season is about making that fit. If the Suns and Bulls played a best-of-seven series, I think they might both lose.

Tier VIII — Sorry, You’re Bad

28. New York Knicks 29. Sacramento Kings 30. Atlanta Hawks

The Knicks top this terrible trio only because Kristaps Porzingis might return at some point. Without him, they are a steaming pile of doodoo, though at least with some young pieces worth growing and picks worth keeping. There’s a future in New York now, but that won’t make the present much better.

27, 32, 33, 29, 28, 28, 22, 24, 25, 17: that’s the Kings win total over the past decade. Pretty special. This year’s Kings will be led by a 20-year-old point guard and may feature definitely-a-center-in-2018 Marvin Bagley at small forward. Fun fact: Rick Adelman had a winning record all eight seasons as head Sacto coach. The Kings are 0-for-25 at finishing .500 in their other Sacramento seasons. Make that 0-for-26 soon.

The Hawks are my pick for worst team in the league, and it’s because they’ll heavily feature 2018’s worst player, Trae Young. I am in on Trae long-term, but it’s going to be a rough learning curve. Expect a lot of missed shots, a lot of turnovers, and a lot of bad defense. New Hawks coach Lloyd Pierce coached the Summer League squad and this team is all-in on Warriors East. They’re going to feature Trae, and it’ll be great for him down the road, but they might go like 16–66.

Playoff Predictions

Round 1 losers

Wizards, Pacers, Bucks, Hornets, Jazz, Nuggets, Blazers, Clippers

Round 2 losers

Sixers, Heat, Thunder, Lakers

Conference runners-up

Celtics, Rockets

Finals

Warriors over Raptors in 6

And I find it kinda funny, I find it kinda sad The dreams in which I’m dying are the best I’ve ever had I find it hard to tell you, I find it hard to take When people run in circles it’s a very very Mad world, mad world

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