2017-18 NBA Betting Guide: Everything You Need to Dominate Vegas
League leaders and the best player props for the new NBA season
The NBA season is here at last, and it’s time to play ball. And that means it’s time to get all of your season-long NBA bets in before the games tip off.
We already covered all of the team over/unders in August. The best bets there remain over for Indiana and San Antonio and under for the Lakers and Knicks. Now it’s time to dig into all of the individual stats. Who will lead the league in scoring or rebounding? Who wins Rookie and Coach of the Year? And MVP?
A little bit of math and history can point us in the right direction, so let’s dig into the numbers and pick some winners. All odds are provided by Bovada…
Rookie of the Year
It’s not 2016 anymore, a weak rookie year full of injuries that saw Joel Embiid emerge early but eventually came down to a second-round Milwaukee role player and a Philadelphia international putting up garbage time numbers. This rookie class is loaded and looks like a fun and impactful group.
Malik Monk could end up playing a lot of minutes for Charlotte in the absence of Nic Batum. Milos Teodosic is going to light up the highlight reels but probably won’t play enough or score enough to get into the mix. Kyle Kuzma won’t win MVP for another season or two. It’s a fun rookie group but it ultimately comes back to that top three.
Lonzo Ball averaged 6.5 points, 6.0 assists, and 4.5 rebounds in 29 minutes a game this preseason. He’s going to dazzle and is a reason to tune in to any Lakers game, but he also played only two games due to injury and is going to have to get more physical. His results may be hit or miss while he adjusts parts of his game and that could leave the numbers short.
Dennis Smith Jr. should end up with better numbers. He put up 10 points and 4 assists in under 20 minutes a game for the Mavs in preseason and looks like a young Derrick Rose at times. DSJ will be given the keys to an offense that turned Yogi Ferrell and Seth Curry into real players last year. Players of this prototype tend to produce immediately — Westbrook and Rose scored 15 and 17ppg their rookie seasons — so Smith has a great chance to lead rookies in scoring and that’s the stat that most closely ties to winning this.
Still, Ben Simmons is the favorite. He hit 11 points, 5 assists, and 6 rebounds in 23 minutes per game in the preseason. That would be a 16/8/9 line in 32 minutes a game, the sort of line that wins Rookie of the Year in a landslide, one we haven’t really seen since Grant Hill or Magic Johnson. Simmons will likely probably record multiple triple-doubles, and he should be the focal point of a Philly turnaround that will keep him in the national conversation.
Best bet: Ben Simmons +150 Best long shot: Dennis Smith +500
Scoring Champion
The scoring champion has averaged at least 27.7ppg every year this century and over 30ppg two-thirds of the time, so we’re looking for players than can get to the 28 to 30 range.
Karl-Anthony Towns already did that post-All-Star Break at 28.4ppg but that was without Zach LaVine and of course Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague. It’s hard to see him scoring enough with Minnesota having so many options. Steph Curry hit 30ppg in 2016 but has been at 25 or lower every other year. Boogie and Brow prevent each other from getting into the 28–30 range, barring a major injury. Kyrie Irving could take over the Isaiah Thomas role, but IT didn’t have Gordon Hayward or Jayson Tatum taking shots away.
Kawhi Leonard has seen his PPG improve from 13 to 16.5 to 21 to 25.5 over the last three years, so a similar improvement or slight minutes jump could get him in range. But it’s really difficult to close your eyes and picture a Pop player as the league’s leading scorer. It’s easier to envision LeBron doing it, especially without Kyrie, but he’s been in the 25 to 27 range six straight years and only led the league in scoring once. He just doesn’t have the monster points games in the regular season a scoring champ needs.
Russell Westbrook and James Harden are co-favorites, but Westbrook shouldn’t be. He scored 31.6ppg last year in a season for the ages and 28.1ppg in 2014–15, but those two years have something in common — no other star. Russ was alone last year, and he got only 27 games from Durant in 2014–15. His career-high otherwise is 23.6ppg and that seems a lot more reasonable with Melo and PG absorbing shots. He has terrible odds here. Harden’s odds are fair. He’s been over 29ppg twice in a row and and over 25ppg every season in Houston. He’s the favorite and should be.
The other co-favorite should be Kevin Durant, not Westbrook. Durant scored 25ppg last season with the Warriors but played a few games injured and took a bit adjusting to a new team. He was over 28ppg his last four healthy seasons and it feels like this could be the year he plays loose and free now that he has a ring. He’s the best scorer on the best offense.
Two fun longer shots are Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Dame has seen his scoring average increase every year and hit 27ppg last year. Another tick up, an improved shooting year, or a C.J. McCollum injury could push him toward a breakout. Greek Freak has farther to go. He finished at 23ppg, up from 17 and 13 the previous two years, but he’ll have to shoulder more of the scoring load with Jabari Parker out and he appears unstoppable at times out there. Can he really jump from 23 to 28+? He can — if the jumper is there. At +6500 odds, that looks worth a shot.
Best bet: Kevin Durant +800 Best long shot: Giannis Antetokounmpo +6500
Assists Leader
Lonzo Ball would be a lot of fun to root for, but taking him at the fifth best odds without ever playing a real NBA game is just nuts. You’re much better off picking the other rookie on the list Ben Simmons at +4000, but it’s tough to see either rookie leading the league, and Ball isn’t even the best rookie passer in Los Angeles.
John Wall has been over 10apg three straight seasons, and Westbrook is over 10 the last two. James Harden was the leader last year at 11.2apg.
But the pick here is Chris Paul. CP3 has been over 9apg ten straight years. He’s been at 10.7+ four times and led the league in assists four times, and that was before he became Mike D’Antoni’s point guard. Steve Nash was over 10.5apg all four seasons with D’Antoni, and Harden jumped from 7.5 to 11.2apg under D’Antoni. CP3 and Harden both averaged 11 assists per 36 minutes in the preseason. It’s always a good idea to take a D’Antoni point guard, though his odds have dropped enough that no one here is a great bet.
Best bet: Chris Paul +300 Best long shot: Ben Simmons +4000
Rebounding Leader
Hassan Whiteside won this last year at 14.1rpg, just ahead of Andre Drummond and DeAndre Jordan at 13.8. Those three enter as favorites. Whiteside’s 14.1 is his only monster rebounding season. He’s never even hit 12rpg any other year. That doesn’t mean he can’t do it again, but it does make him a poor bet. Jordan is over 13.6rpg four straight seasons. His rebounding jumped to 15rpg without Blake Griffin last year, so betting on him is a bet on Griffin missing a big chunk of time. His numbers drop when both play.
Drummond has been over 13.2rpg every year as a starter, and his rebounding percentage has jumped each season. Last year looks like a slight regression on the surface but it was mostly due to a dip in minutes. Drummond averaged 13.8rbp in under 30 minutes a game as Detroit sorted its way through a lost season. Add a couple minutes back in, and Drummond is the most likely winner here.
Two past rebounding champions are intriguing long shots with very nice odds. Dwight Howard averaged 12.7rpg last year but played under 30 minutes a game. When he’s played 34+ minutes a game, he pretty much always hits 14 rebounds. Kevin Love is the other intriguing name. His rebounding numbers have dropped in Cleveland but he had 11rpg last year and will start the year at center, so he should play closer to the basket and soak up minutes on a team that badly needs his rebounding prowess. Both Love and Howard should hit 12 or 13 rebounds a game with ease, and that puts them close enough to make them delicious bets at long odds.
Best bet: Kevin Love +3500 Best long shot: Dwight Howard +3000
Defensive Player of the Year
The top three names on the list got 98.3% of the votes last year, an impressive feat on a three-player ballot from over 100 voters. Those three are favorites again, and with something as subjective as defense, it’s bound to come down to narrative. Kawhi already won the award twice, and Draymond won last year. That might make this Gobert’s turn in the eyes of many voters. Gobert already led the league in blocks last year and anchors a Utah defense that got even better with the additions of Ricky Rubio, Donovan Mitchell, Thabo Sefolosha, and Ekpe Udoh. Gobert is the best bet of the trio because he has the most interesting narrative and the best odds.
But there’s one shocking omission here, and that’s Joel Embiid. Embiid averaged 2.5 blocks per game in just 25 minutes last year and single handedly transformed Philadelphia into a top ten defense while on the court. And yes, he’ll likely miss a bunch of games, but couldn’t you see that weirdly helping him in a way? What if Embiid plays 60 games with a top-5 defense and Philly drops to the bottom half of the league in the other 22 games? Voters might not have the chance to “appreciate” how much Kawhi, Draymond, and Gobert mean to their respective defenses with them out there every game. And talk about narrative — Embiid won’t have any problem there.
Embiid can be had at +800 to lead the league in blocks per game, and that seems like an excellent bet. If you can find long shot odds for DPOY here (or at least a “field” option), that may be even better. You’re betting on him playing at least 50 or 60 games, but isn’t that a bet we all want to see pay off?
Best bet: Rudy Gobert +325 Best long shot: Joel Embiid, if you can find odds
Coach of the Year
Let’s just take a moment to soak in the odds of the last man on the list, Fred Hoiberg. The Bulls are so bad that Hoiberg’s odds are 50% worse than every other coach on the list. It’s pretty special, really.
This award is all about narrative — almost. It’s about narrative but it’s also about wins. Every Coach of the Year but one has won two-thirds of their games over the last decade. That means Coach of the Year goes to a 55-win team or better, and that narrows down the field dramatically. How many teams can really win 55 games? That list is probably Golden State, San Antonio, Houston, Oklahoma City, Cleveland, and Boston.
Houston won exactly 55 last year and D’Antoni won the award last year. No coach has ever won the award in back-to-back years, so cross him off the list. Kerr won the year before, and only two coaches have ever won twice in a three-year window. He’d probably have to see the Warriors win at least 70 games to have a chance, and you also have to worry about Kerr’s back injury, so he’s not a good bet either.
The most likely winners here would seem to be Brad Stevens, Billy Donovan, or Greg Popovich. Pop’s Spurs should hit 55 wins like always, and voters are always happy to reward him though a fourth win would give him the most all time and that might cause some voters to pause.
Can the Celtics or Thunder hit 55 wins? Boston won 53 last year, but did they actually get better? It’s going to take some time to adjust with all of the new pieces, and the Celtics lost a lot of defense and depth. Oklahoma City added two marquee scorers and improved their bench with the signings of Patrick Patterson and Raymond Felton. They should have one of the league’s best defenses and have a trio with a chip on their shoulder and something to prove in what may be their only year together. Getting to 55 wins will be tough, but Donovan would get a lot of credit if they do get there.
One other long shot could be Dwane Casey. The Raptors won 51 games last year and finished just two games back in the East, even with Kyle Lowry missing 22 games. If Cleveland coasts and Boston struggles, you can envision a world where Toronto ends up with the best regular season record in the East, and Casey could be a shock winner if that happens.
Best bet: Billy Donovan +800 Best long shot: Dwane Casey +3000
Regular Season MVP
Honestly, we’re all a little worn out from running the MVP debate into the ground last season and it’s a bit exhausting trying to dig into all the narratives here. I loved Kawhi and Giannis as sleepers in the offseason, but apparently others did too and now their odds have both dropped into a range that is no longer valuable, especially with Leonard starting the season injured.
Here’s what we know about NBA MVPs:
- They almost always come from very good teams, most often 60-win teams
- They are very frequently the best player on the best team
- They almost always come from a team that finishes top two in their conference standings
The problem is the Warriors are really, really good and might be too good to have an MVP, and there probably aren’t any other 60-win teams this year. On top of that, many of the league’s stars teamed up, so Westbrook, Harden, and maybe even LeBron will have to share credit just like the Warriors stars. When all the stars team up, is there even a single Most Valuable Player?
And that’s why the narrative still favors Leonard and Antetokounmpo. Giannis would need to take another big step forward, a Greek Freak sized step, and lead Milwaukee near the top of a weak Eastern Conference. That might be a step too far, even for him. As for Kawhi, we finally saw just how valuable he was when the Spurs lost him for the WCF. Some of us underrated just how valuable he was last year, and if the Spurs win 60 again, the narrative may rise up against the superteams in Kawhi’s favor.
It’s probably not going to be Westbrook or Harden. It’s impossible for either to improve on last season, and both should see numbers regress with the stars around them. It always seems like LeBron could win the award if he feels like it, but why bother when he can just turn it on for three weeks in June?
Embiid won’t play enough to win it, no matter how good he is. Jokic and the Nuggets won’t be in the national conversation enough. Blake Griffin always posts monster numbers without Chris Paul, but it’s hard to see him and the Clippers healthy enough all season to remain relevant. Jimmy Butler could work his way into the conversation if the Timberwolves learn how to play defense and make a leap, but he feels like the guy you include at the bottom of your ballot, not the one you write at the top. John Wall or Kyle Lowry could be the best player on the East’s best team if things break right.
At the end of the day, though, it’ll probably be Kawhi or Durant. Durant is the best player on the best team, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him have a monster season now that the championship monkey is off his back. If he looks like the best player in the league, voters may feel compelled to give him a second MVP. But with all the superstars now paired up around the league, this award is Kawhi Leonard’s to lose as the one superstar still toiling alone.
Congratulations to Daniel Theis on making the list somehow.
Best bet: Kevin Durant +550 Best long shot: Blake Griffin +4000
Eight Great Player Props
1. Kevin Love over 10.5rpg 2. Kevin Durant over 25ppg 3. Chris Paul over 9apg 4. Ben Simmons over 5apg 5. Ben Simmons over 0.5 triple-doubles 6. Russell Westbrook under 26.5ppg 7. Russell Westbrook under 8.5rpg 8. Russell Westbrook under 29.5 triple-doubles
You can see the logic for all of these in the appropriate sections above, but they all look like very good bets. It would be pretty surprising if Ben Simmons doesn’t have a triple-double at some point this season, and it’ll be shocking if Westbrook has 30 of them.
Just to be clear, 30 triple-doubles would rank Westbrook 12th all time in NBA triple-doubles from this season alone. Yes, he had 42 last season but his career-high was 18 before that and only three seasons in NBA history have been over 29.5. Westbrook averaged just 2.3 rebounds in 22 minutes per game in the preseason and shouldn’t need to crash the boards as much with PG and Melo out there. That was really the area he leapt forward last year, up to 10.7rpg from a career-high 7.8 before that. Expect a return to normalcy for most of Westbrook’s numbers, and let your wallet be rewarded.
Eight Bonus Player Props for the Addicts
1. Milos Teodosic over 5apg
Last year 34 players had at least 5apg, including T.J. McConnell, J.J. Barea, Tim Frazier, Ish Smith, and Sergio Rodriguez. Rodriguez hit his mark in just 22mpg, and Teodosic consistently averaged more assists than him in EuroLeague so the numbers should translate. If he’s out there, he’s passing.
2. Brandon Ingram over 11ppg
Ingram averaged 11.5ppg as a starter and 13.2 post-All-Star break. He improved his strength over the summer and should take a step forward both as a sophomore and playing with Lonzo Ball. He may not be a star yet, but 11ppg should be an easy bar to clear.
3. Chandler Parsons under 65.5 games
Parsons played 34, 61, and 66 games the last three seasons. He scored 11 points in four preseason games. This is sad to bet on, but if Parsons can make $94 million sitting on the sidelines, you may as well profit too.
4. Taurean Prince over 10ppg
Prince averaged 11.4ppg as a starter and should get plenty of shots for an Atlanta team that needs scoring after losing Millsap, Howard, and Hardaway. His shot looked improved in the preseason.
5. Tim Hardaway Jr. over 15.5ppg
THJ averaged 17.5ppg as a starter. New York lost 40 points a game from Melo and Rose. Enes Kanter will absorb some of that, but there should be plenty of shots for Hardaway and he could have a couple monster games.
6. Kyle Lowry over 20ppg
Lowry was at 22.4ppg last year, up from 21.2 the year before. He played through injury last season, and Toronto lost some key players so Lowry may be relied upon more than ever.
7. Reggie Jackson over 5.5apg
Jackson averages 6.5apg with the Pistons. He had a brutal season last year but was never healthy and saw a big minutes dip including nine games with 20 or fewer. A return to health should see a bounce back season.
8. Rodney Hood over 14ppg
Hood saw his scoring dip from 14.5 to 12.7ppg, but his points-per-36 actually increased. The problem was an injury-filled season that hurt his minutes. Hood played 13 minutes or fewer five times and under 23 minutes twenty times. Utah needs his scoring with Gordon Hayward and George Hill gone.
Five Long Shot Team Bets to Consider
1. Toronto wins Atlantic division +525
It’s not going to be the Knicks, Nets, or Sixers. Boston was two games better than Toronto last season and that was with an historic Isaiah Thomas season and 22 games missed from Kyle Lowry. There are a lot of ways the Celtics could struggle this season, and Toronto will be there to take the division if they slip at all. This is the best team bet on the board.
2. Indiana makes playoffs +400
The Pacers are getting worse odds than Orlando, which seems a bit silly. Indiana lost Paul George but added Oladipo, Collison, Joseph, and Sabonis. The East is so weak that Indiana should be in the mix, and this is a team trying to stay relevant and sell tickets so they could easily sneak in.
3. San Antonio wins Southwest division +100
This is just a head-to-head bet between the Spurs and Rockets, and you’re getting even odds. Houston added Chris Paul but lost a lot of depth and continuity, and the Spurs always win a lot of games. They’re a pretty good bet unless you think the Spurs wheels finally fall off…
4. San Antonio misses playoffs +1175
… and if they do, they could really fall. Kawhi Leonard is still injured from last season, and the Spurs are always cautious. What if Kawhi misses a bunch of time? Are Mills, LMA and Pau getting it done in a congested West? Couldn’t you see the Spurs completely pack it in and give Kawhi the year to heal while they try for Spurs Tankathon II and a long shot top draft pick?
5. Wizards-Warriors Finals +3250
It’s probably going to be Warriors-Cavs Finals, but what if it isn’t? The common assumption is that the Celtics are next in line in the East, but the Wizards were better than Boston and return a dominant starting lineup. Washington is +2200 to win the East, but why not include the Warriors for the better odds? Toronto can’t play playoff basketball, and Giannis isn’t ready. If the Cavs falter, could the Wizards be ready to shake things up?
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