The Year of the Climate Election

Climate Change Brought Us Here — Now Evolution is in Our Hands.

We are in a period of undeniable self-inflicted climate crisis. But ironically, our current peril, largely due to our own actions, is intertwined with our very existence. This owes much to natural climate changes over eons. Consider the cosmic events and Earthly upheavals that have shaped us. From asteroid impacts to tectonic collisions, these incidents have sculpted our evolution. Climate change has been a relentless, self-driven force, driving evolutionary pressures and societal changes that made us who we are.

Today, we are in the driver's seat. The Anthropocene is literally man-made. And as such, we have the power to change our actions and our climate for the better — starting at the ballot box. Arguably there has never been a more important election year than this.

Let’s Start at The Beginning*

Life first emerged from the primordial soup some four billion years ago. The actual game-changer, however, was an asteroid strike 66 million years ago, causing a massive cloud of debris to block sunlight and cool the planet. This event wiped out 80% of all animal species. But as they say, tragedy for some often meant opportunity for others. This event marked the end of the Mesozoic era, the age of dinosaurs, and ushered in the Cenozoic era, the age of mammals.

Then, about 56 million years ago, (natural) climate change went the other way. A sudden warming spike, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), provided evolutionary pressures that led to the emergence of primates.

The last time the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere was similar to today’s levels was around five million years ago, during the Pliocene — though the planet was 3.5–5°F warmer, and the sea level could have been thirty feet higher.

Glaciation intensified 700,000 years ago, shaking up the climate once again and forcing species with larger brains to devise smart solutions to these tough new conditions.

*For deeper evolutionary climate change, read this insightful piece from Sílvia PM, PhD 🍂:

Our time finally came

Homo sapiens first appeared in Africa around 300,000 years ago, and by 100,000 years ago, we were already behaving much like we do today — gathering and cooking food, crafting tools, and communicating through language. The Last Glacial Maximum blanketed present-day New York City just 21,000 years ago, but we were already here.

The modern human had finally arrived, with the help of an asteroid impact, a long-term cooling trend, and a series of climatic oscillations that disrupted climate patterns into a natural selection of species with higher-powered brains that could develop strategies to contend with the severe challenges created by the changing climate. That took us to grow in numbers and to have a “civilizational surplus.” Surplus created civilization, leading to great developments: from hunters to farmers to specialization to the modern world we know with its sciences, technology, art, literature, and human-induced climate change, basically in the form of CO2 emissions.

And then, we have the present, with three defining facts ahead:

• First: 2024 is the year of climate elections. An unprecedented number of about 4 billion people, nearly half the global population, will vote in national and regional elections from the US and Brazil to India and Korea.
• Second: last year broke records as the hottest ever, almost at the brink of the 1.5C° threshold set at the 2015 Paris Agreement- a clear sign we must phase out oil, gas, and coal burning if we aim to keep a habitable planet.
• Third: Evolution is now in our very hands.

Elections That Will Shape Climate Action

2024 will be an election year like no other. Seven out of the top ten carbon-emitting territories are holding elections. These areas, including the United States, India, Indonesia, Russia, the European Union, Brazil, and Mexico, account for around half of the world’s population and nearly half of our carbon emissions.

Elections are also taking place in other significant emitters like the United Kingdom, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Taiwan, and South Africa.

The outcomes of these elections will determine whether we can steer ourselves away from our current path towards dangerous climate warming.

Some might even wax poetic about this being a victory for democracy. But is it really?

One big factor in many of those elections will be resurgent populist right-wing politicians, frequently with authoritarian, chainsaw impulses that vehemently oppose net zero policies, fanning the flames of backlash against climate policies.

This must be countered urgently or we face planetary destruction “beyond comprehension”, the US climate chief, John Kerry, said. He points to a worrying rise in “disinformation” and “demagoguery,” tactics used by special interests to delay action and hinder the shift away from fossil fuels. “People are not being told the truth about what the impacts are from making this transition [to net zero greenhouse gas emissions],” he said. “They’re being scared, purposely frightened by the demagoguery that is oblivious to the facts or distorting the facts. And in some cases, outright lying is going on.”

→ Argentina 🇦🇷: A Voice From the Future

I’ve been living it in the last couple of months since the national elections held in Argentina on December 9, 2023,

The Omnibus Law proposed by newly elected Trump-worshiping President Javier Milei, known for its breadth, aims to revolutionize the Argentine economic system by changing hundreds of laws and regulations.

It has some interesting and needed points, such as:

• Individuals convicted of corruption in second instance cannot run as candidates in national elections.
• Penalize by law the President of the Nation, the Minister of Economy, deputies, and senators who approve a budget that includes financing fiscal deficits with monetary issuance
• Legislate the mandatory provision of 190 days of classes in all educational institutions in the country and at all levels and prevent school dropout with an “Early Warning System.”

However, the proposed law is so broad that it would result in environmental regression in Argentina by weakening existing laws that safeguard forests and glaciers, potentially resulting in serious environmental consequences.

It would allow deforestation in all zoning categories, which is expressly prohibited in the current Forest Law of 2007. This could lead to the destruction of native forests, affecting cultures and species that depend on them. The law project also includes the authorization of economic activities in periglacial areas, representing a setback in not adequately protecting these strategic reserves of water resources and biodiversity.

Fortunately for the environment, it hasn’t been approved. Yet.

→ United States 🇺🇸: Keeping Momentum Alive

In August 2022, US President Joe Biden achieved a major win on climate spending, securing nearly US$1 trillion in investment until 2032 in wind and solar power, electric transport, carbon sequestration, and reskilling programs for fossil fuel workers.

Research estimates that the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act could double US climate progress and reduce carbon emissions by 43–48% by 2035 (relative to 2005 levels). While this falls short of the US commitment to cut emissions by 50% by 2030, the administration is also taking steps to reduce emissions from vehicles and power plants. This effort could help the US, the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas emitter, lead a clean-energy revolution.

But momentum could be lost.

Donald Trump is campaigning to be the Republican candidate for a second term at the White House. A new presidency from the climate denier would definitely put the planet closer to the edge, with the strength of the largest emitter of climate pollution in history and the second largest annual emitter, behind China, vowing to remove the US from the Paris Agreement and roll back the policies boosting clean energy by Biden, pushing us closer and closer.

Despite Trump’s intentions, it would be challenging for him to reverse the clean-energy investments in the Inflation Reduction Act. These investments are already incentivizing businesses to create jobs across the country, including in Republican districts. Once the economic benefits start flowing, predatory capitalists change their minds.

Still, the concern about climate likely weaponized in the US election campaigns this year and in other countries as billions of people around the world head to the polls is more than justified.

→ India 🇮🇳: High Volume Climate Ignorance

India is the globe’s third-largest producer of greenhouse gases, yet home to 1.4 billion people (one-sixth of the world’s population), so its per-capita emissions are only a seventh of those of the United States and one-quarter of China’s. This is no excuse, though, for climate change remaining a silent topic in India’s imminent elections. Neither of the two main parties has made it a significant campaign issue.

However, India is not entirely static on climate change. The country has followed through on some COP26 commitments. And over the past five years, wind and solar power capacity in India has nearly doubled.

→ Indonesia 🇮🇩: Coal and Islands

Indonesia, the world’s top coal exporter, is in the midst of its presidential and legislative elections. While votes are still being tallied, don’t expect a seismic shift in the country’s climate policies: 60% of Indonesia’s electricity is generated from coal. This isn’t a short-term fling, either. Thanks to government backing and a fleet of relatively young power plants, the relationship with coal is set to last for decades.

With the challenge of distributing electricity across Indonesia’s vast archipelago, renewables haven’t taken off like they have in India or China. So, as Indonesians cast their votes, the country’s climate future hangs in the balance.

→ Russia 🇷🇺: Gas and War

Vladimir Putin’s rigged re-election in March is an open secret. This event will be a stage for Putin to justify Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and fan anti-Western sentiments. The climate crisis? It’s not even on their radar.

The ongoing war and economic sanctions led by the European Union, the United States, and the United Kingdom will likely sabotage any future attempts at climate action in Russia. After all, it’s the world’s fourth-largest greenhouse gas emitter.

→ EU 🇪🇺: Right Tendency in the Horizon

The European Union (EU) loves to herald itself as a climate change champion. In 2021, EU members agreed to slash net greenhouse gas emissions by a minimum of 55% from 1990 levels by 2030, targeting climate neutrality by 2050. They’ve even made a bolder proposition to cut emissions by 90% by 2040. So far, Europe has managed to cut its emissions by 32.5% from 1990 levels.

From June 6 to 9, citizens from 27 European countries will elect 720 politicians to the European Parliament for a five-year term. Polls suggest that voters are gravitating towards right-wing parties that don’t prioritize climate action. This shift could hinder Europe’s climate ambitions as these parties often prioritize nationalistic interests and growing resistance against other carbon capture methods like forestation, soil enhancement, and nature-based solutions.

The EU has done well with easy wins, such as renewable energy and energy efficiency, but a new question lingers: can it keep its positive climate trend and dodge the right wing on the rise?

Predatory Capitalism On The Hunt

So much is at stake this election year, in the US and around the world. And for voters to do their part, they first have to be rightfully and unbiasedly informed.

But the rising right is fueling on our paradoxical reality: our identity is built around consumption, and for that, we are entirely dependent on fossil fuels, no matter if the price we’re paying is the very Earth we inhabit. For every dollar we are investing in climate change, we spend at least five subsidizing what is killing us, even when within the very fossil fuel industry, companies like Chevron have admitted in court that “fossil fuels are the problem.”

Nevertheless, the forces of climate change denial and inaction persist. They only promote expanding their business while they want the public to think of them as part of a climate solution. In reality, they’re a problem trying to avoid being solved.

Scientists emphasize that the climate crisis is solvable: humanity has the necessary technologies to “transition away from fossil fuels”, as the world’s governments agreed at the Cop28 climate summit in December 2023. What’s often lacking are political leaders willing and able to implement those technologies and leave fossil fuels behind.

History will judge how well we respond.

My hope is that 2024 is the year in which politicians finally focus on what matters most to people and how they live, not that profit is the point of life, shareholders dictate social priorities, and nothing stands in the way of maximizing returns — not even people.

My hope is we as a global society take our heads off the sand once and for all from the strategy that carried us here, “change as little as possible and hope for the best.” Because no country, rich or poor, will escape the consequences

My hope is that we finally realize we have a climate problem because we’re burning fossil fuels persistently without capturing the emissions. The two ways to solve it are either capturing the emissions or (even better and cheaper) not making them. In the meantime, we aren’t doing any.

We’re one finite planet. And we are all linked.

Be loud.

Thank you for your thorough reading and support! Once again, I'd like to give Tim Smedley much-deserved credit and gratitude for his invaluable feedback. Subscribe for immediate insights and join the 400+ Antarctic Sapiens community for weekly thought-provoking content.