NFL Week 1 Picks against the Spread
The 2018 NFL season is off and running with picks for every game, including Patriots, Rams, and Ravens best bets
Well, we finally made it. Football is back, or at least whatever that dreck was on our screen for four hours last night in Philadelphia. It felt more like a replay of the Falcons-Eagles playoff game from January, but the point is that the NFL is back and Week 1 is finally here.
We’ve learned the last few seasons that the first few games can get ugly, functioning as a second preseason while offenses try to find rhythms and continuity, coaching, and defense reign supreme. The betting lines are always tough to read early, but we’ve done 50,000 words of homework, so when in doubt, just stick with the team we think is better.
So place those Week 1 bets, grab a 6-pick, and let’s watch some football. Don’t forget to check out all four parts of my 2018 NFL monster blowout preview: the 8 bottom feeders, 8 teams headed in the wrong direction, 8 sleepers, and 8 contenders for the Lombardi. Let’s football!
Thursday Night NFL Kickoff
Atlanta +1 over Philadelphia
I made my first pick of the season based on Atlanta’s health and continuity and on the premise that their excellent offense couldn’t help but be more efficient in the red zone. I also made them my Super Bowl pick. Then they went 1-for-837 in the red zone and lost one of their best defenders for the year with an ACL tear. Off to a roaring start.
The Stay Aways
New York Jets +6.5 at Detroit
Doesn’t it feel like the Jets need some false hope? Sam Darnold debuting on Monday Night Football against one of the league’s softest defenses should do the trick. Neither of these teams is particularly good, so at least it should be fun. These teams have two of the five worst nighttime records in NFL history, so the good news is one of them has to win.
Cincinnati +3 at Indianapolis
Ew. Unless you’re desperate to watch Andrew Luck throw six-yard dump-offs after two years away, flip over to one of the other games. The Colts are good at exactly nothing, and the Bengals should dominate the weak Indy offensive line and find a way.
Jacksonville -3 at New York Giants
Maybe the Giants renaissance is coming, but it feels too soon against this defense. Jacksonville will take Odell Beckham Jr. personally, and they’re not exactly going to roll out the red carpet to welcome Saquon Barkley into the league. Are you really rolling with Eli Manning against this Jags defense?
Find One Good Thing and Roll With It
Arizona -1 vs Washington
The Cardinals have the best single unit in this game, their defense, and that should give Alex Smith some trouble as he adjusts to a new team. Arizona has won 11 of their last 13 home September games, where the desert heat often gives visitors problems.
Seattle -3 at Denver
The Seahawks just spent the last few months listening to everyone write them off, and no team plays with as much of a chip on its shoulder. This game feels like a toss-up, and when in doubt, look at the quarterbacks and coaches.
Carolina -2.5 vs Dallas
The Panthers are getting less than three points at home, so Vegas thinks the Cowboys are better for some reason. Carolina is at its best when Cam Newton and Luke Kuechly are healthy, so they should swarm the Dallas run game and let Newton and Christian McCaffrey do the rest.
The Game of the Week
Minnesota -6 vs San Francisco
This looks like the marquee early game, but the odds are stacked against the 49ers. A road test against a hungry, stacked defense is the exact opposite of what you’d want for a quarterback making his eighth career start with a bunch of unproven weapons around him. Minnesota takes care of business against teams they’re better than, and until the 49ers prove otherwise, the Vikings are much better on both sides of the ball. Minnesota won 11 games last season by 7+ points. They should add another here.
Chicago +8 at Green Bay
Sunday night suddenly looks fun with the addition of Khalil Mack. He and Roquan Smith add nastiness to a Chicago defense that could give this team a Jaguars type run if Matt Nagy and the new coaching staff can figure the offense out. Green Bay is vulnerable over the middle and around the edges, the exact areas Nagy will attack. Aaron Rodgers is 15–4 lifetime against the Bears, but four of the last six are one-score games. It feels like Chicago could come out roaring but Rodgers is Rodgers and he’ll find a way to win late — just maybe not enough to cover.
Los Angeles Chargers -3 vs Kansas City
This is the biggest game of the day because it sets the tone for the division. Both teams look like they’ll be missing a key player with Eric Berry and Joey Bosa unlikely to play, and that changes the complexion of each defense. The Chargers may not bring quite as feisty a pass rush, which will be key to throwing off Patrick Mahomes in his second start, while the Chiefs defense could be a scrambled mess ripe for picking. The Chiefs have won eight straight against the Chargers, five by double digits. L.A. blew their season early last year and can’t afford to be behind the eight ball with an early home divisional loss. Take the over.
Good Teams Beat Bad Teams
Pittsburgh -4 at Cleveland
On paper, this is a best bet. Ben Roethlisberger is 22–2 against the Browns, and Pittsburgh’s won 26 of the last 29. This is a 13–3 team against an 0–16 team, and though it’s not those teams anymore, an implied 7-point difference seems a bit short, even if the last three have been 3, 3, and 4 point Pittsburgh wins. The Steelers are way better, and Big Ben always finds a way to win games like this, even if it’s late. Still, the LeVeon Bell news is unsettling, mostly because we just have no idea what it’s doing to the Pittsburgh locker room. Might be best to stay away until we do.
Tennessee -1 at Miami
This feels like a game you could just throw up your hands on, but it’s not. The Titans are good, and the Dolphins are not. Tennessee has a new coaching staff and will be eager to start out on a high note, and Miami’s home field advantage is nil. Tennessee is just better.
New Orleans -9.5 vs Tampa Bay
These rivals split each of the last three seasons even with the Bucs sucking, so there’s some history to overcome. Tampa’s defensive front seven is a strength, and New Orleans won’t have Mark Ingram. But the Bucs don’t have Jameis Winston either, and Ryan Fitzpatrick might be from Harvard, but that doesn’t make him good. The Saints are awesome at home, and they should pile up points quickly against a team whose season could go south before October.
Week 1 Best Bets
Los Angeles Rams -4 at Oakland
This line is shocking. The Raiders are a train wreck. They traded a pick for Martavis Bryant, then cut him in training camp, then traded another pick for A.J. McCarron, the guy who couldn’t beat out Nathan Peterman or Josh Allen, so he could back up Derek Carr, the guy who’s so expensive he forced Oakland to trade the league’s best young defender for a handful of picks they’re definitely going to screw up. Fine bit of work by Jon Gruden et al, probably just the first markings on the $100-million masterpiece they’re working on. This has all the makings of one of those late Monday Night Football disasters. Lock in the Rams. This could get ugly.
Baltimore -7 vs Buffalo
The Ravens burned me many times as a best bet last season, but it’s a new year, so mazel tov. Buffalo is the worst team in the NFL, and this game features the league’s worst starting quarterback on the road against an always dominant defense. Seven of Baltimore’s nine wins last season were by double digits. Might as well start with another.
New England -6.5 vs Houston
There’s a version of this game where Deshaun Watson comes back healthy and passes for two touchdowns, runs for two more, and melts down the fantasy and real-life football world. We can always hope. Instead, we gave Bill Belichick an entire offseason to prepare for a quarterback that’s not healthy yet making his seventh career start, and Belichick already got to play against him last season so he’s sure to have something special in store.
Week 1 record: 0–1 Season record: 0–1 Best bets: 0–0
Last season: 130–116–11 Best bets: 29–20–1 Locks: 2–1
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