2019 NBA Awards Season

The Final 2019 NBA Rookie Ladder

Let’s count down the top 25 NBA rookies, 25 to 1. Was Trae Young or Luka Doncic the Rookie of the Year, and who else stood out?

How many rookies do you think made their NBA debut this season? There are 60 draft picks, but not all of them play as rookies. But there are also G-League call-ups, European “rookies” like Brad Wanamaker at age 29, and undrafted players on two-way contracts getting spare minutes. Would you believe a full 105 men made their NBA debut this season? Shout out to some of my favorites like Yante Maten, J.P. “Sleeves” Macura, and Donte Grantham, who somehow played three games but only two minutes.

Not all rookie seasons are created equal. Only 21 of those rookies played at least 1000 minutes, and just 10 averaged double-digit points. It’s tough to make a winning impact as an NBA rookie. The learning curve is steep, and it takes most players a few years to figure it out, if they ever do. But some rookies make a big impact, and Luka Doncic and Trae Young rose above the rest for quite a Rookie of the Year race.

Let’s take a look at 25 rookies worth investigating further. We’ll count down our top ten, choosing our First and Second All-Rookie teams and crowning a Rookie of the Year. Here’s what I thought about all these players heading into the 2018 NBA Draft, if you need a refresher…

BAD, ACTUALLY

Rookies are expected to be bad. They’re supposed to, really, in part because many of them are getting their minutes on losing teams with incomplete rosters. Still, there’s a difference between rookies with flashes and reason for hope versus guys that are just downright bad.

Harry Giles was a big disappointment for the Kings. Giles finally got to play after a long injury wait and may have single-handedly proved that sitting out a year watching doesn’t actually make you Rookie of the Year favorite. Giles played only 14 minutes a game for Sacramento, was relatively high-usage, and still didn’t produce much or do it with any efficiency. He was a giant nothing burger and his #1 recruit status seems forever ago now.

I really liked DeAnthony Melton and Elie Okobo in the draft and at Summer League, but both were pretty terrible as NBA rookies. Okobo couldn’t find his jump shot and probably should’ve stayed in Europe another year or two. Melton was as bad offensively as everyone feared, despite positive defensive contributions. These guys are the reason everyone’s projecting Ja Morant to Phoenix in mock drafts. Bruce Brown played a heap of minutes for a playoff team in Detroit. He shouldn’t have.

Of course, we’ve buried the lede. Kevin Knox had one of the single worst seasons in NBA history. The New York Knicks were the worst team in the NBA, and yet somehow Knox cost them 1.3 win shares. He had a 93 offensive rating and a hide-your-eyes 39% on twos with just 48% true shooting. Knox is one of 12 rookies this century with 2000 minutes played and negative win shares, joining Knicks teammates Dennis Smith Jr. and Emmanuel Mudiay, Adam Morrison, and Brandon Ingram (ouch). As bad as the Knicks were, they were somehow 11 points per 100 possessions worse with Knox on the court. Kevin Knox was a one-man tanking machine. If the Knicks get Zion, it might be because of Knox. It’d be his first positive contribution to the team.

FINE, THANKS FOR ASKING

Not every rookie is good or bad. These guys were fine. They had their moments, filled a role, or looked good but in limited minutes.

Allonzo Trier had his moments. He was an inefficient volume scorer with a nice three-pointer, a delightful undrafted pick-up. Mo Bamba posted nice defensive metrics but had no offensive role with a brutal -19 on/off rating for the Magic, and the broken tibia is a worrisome sign for a giant. Miles Bridges was decent at everything and a positive defender, and he had at least five or ten monster highlight dunks. Rodions Kurucs started for a playoff Nets team and was kind of okay!

Kevin Huerter and Josh Okogie were my favorite wing sleepers in the draft. Huerter hit 39% of his NBA threes but struggled on defense and didn’t improve a ton as the year went progressed. Okogie is a difference maker on defense with constant energy but can’t do much on offense yet. Both teams are happy with their investments but it’ll take some time. Kenrich Williams was a nice undrafted pickup for the Pelicans and contributed positive wing minutes at a position of need.

Robert Williams posted spectacular advanced metrics but did so in 283 minutes, most of them in garbage time. Wendell Carter Jr. only played 1110 minutes. If he’d stayed healthy, he would’ve made the top 10. He’s already very good on defense, all the more impressive as a rookie big on a putrid defensive team. The offense will need some work, but Bulls fans should feel very good about WCJ’s future.

JUST CHILLIN, SEXTON

What to do with Collin Sexton? The season-long numbers put Sexton’s name up in lights right there next to Kevin Knox. Remember how 12 rookies this century played 2000 minutes with negative win shares? Sexton was one of those 12, too.

He was atrocious defensively for Cleveland with a putrid 121 defensive rating. On offense, Sexton’s 16/3/3 looks pretty solid, and his 40% from deep was certainly a hugely pleasant surprise. But 44% on twos is a troubling carryover from college, and the poor 52% true shooting despite the nice three-point shooting shows how inefficient Sexton really is.

But Sexton was a lot better after the All-Star Break. Before the break, Sexton’s true shooting was 49% and his ortg was downright offensive at 96. After it, those numbers jumped to 59% true shooting and 111 ortg, not just improved but actually good! Sexton’s scoring jumped to 21ppg, and his turnover rate dropped too, though his defense somehow got even worse in that stretch.

As a whole, Sexton still wasn’t good this season, but it’s helpful to note one other player that appeared on that list of high-minutes rookies with negative win shares: De’Aaron Fox a year ago. Sexton and Fox have different games but similar advanced metric profiles. Could Sexton have a similar breakout next season?

COUNTING DOWN THE TOP 10 ROOKIES

10. Landry Shamet, L.A. Clippers / Philadelphia

Shamet got a lot of attention in the first round of the playoffs. He was an excellent shooter at Wichita State and brought his sharpshooting to the pros, hitting 42% of his threes on 60% true shooting. That shooting alone will keep him in the league for a decade, and Shamet was a positive contributor and looked like he learned plenty of tricks from J.J. Redick before being traded.

So why isn’t Shamet higher? The same reason as many in the back half of the top 10: low usage. It’s easier to look good at 15% usage like Shamet, basically out there to run around and hit open jumpers. He’s not good on twos yet, nor creating his own shot, nor playing defense. Still, Shamet is a valuable starter-quality piece L.A. essentially got the Sixers to throw into the Tobias Harris deal.

9. Mitchell Robinson, New York

The advanced metrics absolutely love Mitchell Robinson. He led the NBA with a 140 offensive rating. He blocked 2.4 shots in 21 minutes a game, already garnering such terrible nicknames as Blockness Monster and Lobinson, if Basketball Reference is to be believed (it’s usually not, in the case of nicknames). Robinson made 69% of his twos with an awesome 0.217 win shares per 48 minutes, by far the best of any rookie with real minutes.

He also had 12% usage, which is fine because you don’t exactly want Robinson doing more than dunking, but it still skews the numbers quite a bit. And he played only 1360 minutes, none of them particularly meaningful, so it’s hard to put a ton of stock into his numbers. Still, Robinson looks like a real steal from the second round.

8. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, L.A. Clippers

The Clippers may have their back court of the future. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander started most of the season and played 2174 minutes. He was quite good — just not necessarily in the way you think. The highlights showed SGA slashing to the rim with his long stride, but Shai had a remarkably low usage for a starting point guard at 18%. He was more of a 3-and-D guy, with a surprising 37% three and a positive contributor defensively with all that length.

The low usage keeps SGA from climbing higher, and the way he was used leaves some questions to his long-term upside, but Gilgeous-Alexander looks like a very nice building block. We’ll see if he turns into the centerpiece of a big Clippers trade this summer instead.

7. Jalen Brunson, Dallas

Surprise! Jalen Brunson was the National Player of the Year on the 2018 champion Villanova, but he struggled at Summer League and out of the gates this fall. Before the All-Star Break, Brunson posted an ugly 7/2/2 line on 47% twos, 67% free throws, and a 103 offensive rating. Post-break, Brunson nearly doubled his counting stats, leaping to 14-and-a-half points, 3 boards, and over 4 assists a game. He also jumped to 59% twos and 78% free throws, much closer to what he did in college, and his offensive efficiency rocketed to 116 offensive rating with 60% true shooting.

This is the Brunson we saw at Villanova, and he was always going to be a great fit for a coach in Rick Carlisle who loves to play multiple handlers and use small point guards. And if you’re wondering, the difference between Brunson and Sexton is that Brunson wasn’t the worst player in the league pre-ASB.

6. Mikal Bridges, Phoenix

Bridges is our final low-usage pick, and if it weren’t for his low usage, he’d probably move up a spot or two. Brunson’s Villanova teammate is exactly what everyone expected: a ready-made 3-and-D winner. Bridges played 2417 positive minutes for the Suns, which is not exactly something they’ve had in great commodity at any point this decade.

Mikal averaged two stocks a game in 30 minutes, a positive defender with the best +/- on Phoenix at +4.7. He also scored efficiently on56% true shooting, though the Suns will hope he improves his 34% three-point shooting. Still, Bridges was at only 12% usage, an astonishingly low number for a player with that many minutes. He’ll be much more valuable on a better team someday. The Suns hope that will be them.

5. Marvin Bagley, Sacramento

A really crazy thing happened this year — the top five draft picks were actually the top five rookies. I’m quite certain that’s never happened before. Marvin Bagley had a really similar statistical rookie season to John Collins, his most obvious comp. That’s either good or bad, depending on how much upside you’re hoping for from either of those guys, and Collins was more efficient.

Bagley had a 111 offensive rating for the Kings and did that despite not being able to shoot much yet. That may be changing. Bagley hit 39% of his threes after the All-Star Break, and his numbers leapt to 18-and-a-half points and 9 boards a game. That improvement as the Kings fought for the playoffs bodes well for his future.

4. Deandre Ayton, Phoenix

I need to publicly admit something: I got it wrong with Ayton. All season long I’ve gotten wrong, and I had it all wrong last year too. I was wrong…

It’s spelled Deandre, not DeAndre.

My bad.

Oh, his play? Nah, still think I’m right there. Ayton did exactly what I expected when I recommended him as a Rookie of the Year pick, posting efficient metrics without actually affecting winning in any way. Ayton was pretty bad defensively. Yes, he had a few games with nice highlights individually, but it’s the team defense that’s a real problem, along with the poor block rate.

Offensively, Ayton put up a 117 ortg without a terribly high usage (21%). He had 16 points and 10 rebounds a game, numbers matched by only Blake Griffin and Karl-Anthony Towns as rookies this century. Ayton had 61% true shooting, and he’s been a better shooter and more efficient scorer already than I expected. He’s yet to hit a three pointer. That’s not a real diss for a rookie center, it’s just that Ayton’s defense is so rough that he’s going to have to be a high-usage elite offensive player to be worth his minutes and pick investment. And to do that, he’s going to have to add outside shooting and higher usage to his skill set. For now, Ayton looks much closer to Jonas Valancinuas or a high-minutes Boban Marjanovic than the next elite NBA center.

3. Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis

There’s no question in my mind that Jaren Jackson Jr. was the best big man in this year’s draft. He was highest on my draft board last summer, and he’s already been outstanding as a rookie.

Jackson lived up to the billing on defense, despite playing somewhat out of position and on a team without a ton of help. He averaged 2.3 stocks in 26 minutes and flashed immense defensive IQ and switchability for a rookie. Jackson held his own as an individual defender, but it’s his team defense that makes him so insanely valuable. There’s been a lot of talk lately about 82-game players and 16-game guys. JJJ is a 16-game player. He’s made for the playoffs, profiling as one of the increasingly-few bigs that can’t get played off the court in the playoffs. And that’s because of his defense.

Jackson’s offense was just a surprising cherry on top. He actually had a higher usage than Ayton, with 14ppg on 59% true shooting, including an already useful 36% three. Remember how LeBron always used to say Chris Bosh was the most important player on the Miami Heat? That’s the sort of projection JJJ has. He needs to get his rebounds up, and he has a long road ahead to get to the playoffs with this roster, but Jaren Jackson Jr. looks so good now that he still has a path to being the best player in this draft class.

2. Trae Young, Atlanta

And there’s the big decision you came here for. Yes, I still went with Luka Doncic over Trae Young. Going into the draft, I loved both of these guys. Trae was 1B to my 1A Luka, and that’s still about how I’d rank them long term out of this draft. But Doncic was just plain #1 this season.

Trae posted some ridiculous numbers and highlights and would’ve been Rookie of the Year in many campaigns. He finished the season with 19 points, 4 rebounds, and 8 assists a game, numbers only Oscar Robertson and Damon Stoudamire matched as rookies. But he wasn’t very efficient, hitting just 32% of his threes and under 50% of his twos for a 54% true shooting. Combine that with a heap of turnovers and maybe the worst defense in the league, and you Young was getting crushed the first half of the season by many pundits.

But look at the massive improvement Trae made after the All-Star Break. His scoring jumped from 17 to 24-and-a-half points a game, with an extra 1.5 assists and rebounds, too. His offensive rating leapt from a bad 102 to a downright elite 118. His free-throw percentage jumped from 80 to 88%, his three-pointer from why-are-you-still-shooting 31% to hey-that’s-almost-what-Harden-shoots-and-these-are-pretty-hard-shots 35. That improved Young from 52% true shooting pre-ASB to 58% after.

Before the All-Star Break, Trae Young was a bottom five player in the league with a high volume of bad shots he mostly missed — frankly he was everything his naysayers feared he would be. After the break, Young was genuinely good, in a way even his biggest fans probably didn’t expect for at least a couple seasons. It’s not a huge sample, and it wasn’t in meaningful games yet, but Trae Young looks really, really good. If the shots continue to fall in an improved fashion, he has a path to being a top 10 offensive player in the NBA.

1. Luka Doncic, Dallas

And then there was Luka. Doncic was so good out of the gates that the Rookie of the Year race was over before the calendar even flipped to 2019.

Doncic had 21 points, 8 boards, and 6 assists a game. Only Oscar ever bested those numbers as a rookie. Heck, only 13 other players in NBA history have posted those numbers at any age. That list includes names like LeBron, MJ, Larry, Wilt, Magic, Hill, KG, Russ, Havlicek — and now Luka, who turned 20 after the All-Star Break.

Oh, let’s talk about that All-Star Break. The popular narrative is that Doncic was the better rookie for the first half of the season but Young was better late. Doncic averaged 23 points, 10 boards, and 7 assists post-ASB. His counting numbers after the break went up, not down. Only Wilt, Oscar, and Russ ever posted those numbers for a whole season. And it’s already in play for Doncic. Heck, he might average them for the next decade.

Luka’s shooting was up and down. And it was mostly down after the break, leading to inefficient results despite the hefty counting numbers. Luka’s overall shooting splits of 43/33/71 feel a bit disappointing. He’ll improve on that in years to come. But he’s also taking pretty difficult shots at 31% usage as a rookie, including a step-back three second already to only James Harden. How many big shots did Luka hit in clutch moments already this season? As a rookie! This kid is here to stay.

Expect people to be a bit slow to come around to Doncic’s greatness, kind of like with Nikola Jokic. That example is not a mistake. Doncic doesn’t look like the great players in the NBA. He’s not outrageously athletic and isn’t dunking guys into oblivion. But he is spectacular nonetheless and looks like he’ll be a perennial MVP contender someday, and that day is not that far away.

Get your popcorn ready. Luka Doncic is already here.

FIRST TEAM ALL-ROOKIE

Luka Doncic Trae Young Jaren Jackson, Jr. Deandre Ayton Marvin Bagley

SECOND TEAM ALL-ROOKIE

Mikal Bridges Jalen Brunson Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Mitchell Robinson Landry Shamet

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

1. Luka Doncic 2. Trae Young 3. Jaren Jackson Jr.

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