2018 Post NBA Draft Big Board Rankings

What players gained and lost the most stock on draft day? Did Michael Porter Jr. and Marvin Bagley trade futures?

The 2018 NBA Draft is in the books, and many pundits have already turned their attention to free agency with big decisions from LeBron James, Paul George, and others looming. But there’s an important step in the NBA Draft process that often goes overlooked — reevaluating player rankings based on team fit and what we learned on draft day.

Critics panned the Boston Celtics for drafting Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown the last few years, but most folks would give Boston the benefit of the doubt on just about any wing they touch now. Meanwhile De’Aaron Fox went to a team that didn’t want to run and didn’t have any spacing, tanking his value. Sometimes team fit is everything. So let’s run through this year’s player list and re-rank the top 36 prospects post-draft. Spoiler alert — it’s good news for Michael Porter Jr. and bad news for Marvin Bagley.

If you haven’t read it yet or need a reference, be sure to keep my pre-draft 2018 Big Board Manifesto open in the next tab over. Off we go!

Tier 1 — The Superstars

1. G Luka Doncic, Dallas (previous 1, actual 1) 2. PG Trae Young, Atlanta (previous 2, actual 2)

These two will be forever linked after being traded for each other on draft night. I love the destination for each, so both stay safely atop my big board.

Doncic gets to follow in the steps of the most successful international basketball player of all time. He gets to play for one of the league’s best coach-owner combos in a great culture and market, and I’m extremely confident that Rick Carlisle will get the best out of Doncic, whatever there is to get. I don’t think he’ll get to play true point guard with Dennis Smith Jr. and others around, but Carlisle is notorious for playing two or three point men out here with plenty of ball movement, so Doncic will fit just fine.

Young gets maybe the thing he needed more than anything else — a team that believes in him. He is the team now. Atlanta is all in. They gave up a chance at Doncic and clearly worked the rest of their draft around his abilities, moving toward a Warriors East look. He’s always going to be compared to Steph Curry, and now he has to live with the Doncic comparisons too, but he’ll be given every chance to succeed on this roster. There’s a lot of shooting around him, but he doesn’t have much defensive help.

Tier 2 — Definite NBA Players with Star Potential

3. C Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis (previous 4, actual 4)

Nothing new to say on JJJ. He should fit fine at the four next to Gasol and help them immediately, basically a more talented and athletic version of everything the Grizzlies pretended JaMychal Green and Jarell Martin were. Jackson jumps ahead of Bagley and is the only name in this tier. Bagley was draft night’s biggest loser. We’ll get back to him.

Tier 3 — High Upside Plays

Tier 3A: My Guys

4. F Michael Porter Jr., Denver (previous 9, actual 14) 5. Wing Zhaire Smith, Philadelphia (previous 5, actual 16) 6. PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, L.A. Clippers (previous 6, actual 11)

If Bagley was draft night’s biggest lower, then Michael Porter was its biggest winner. That flies in the face of what everyone reported that night, but I really love the situation MPJ walks into in Denver. It’s the perfect spot for him in a lot of ways.

First, the Nuggets are already good and don’t need to rush Porter into a big role. He can come off the bench as a Tobias Harris type scoring forward, playing limited minutes as he recovers from injury before stepping into Paul Millsap’s starting role in a year or two. Second, his sweet jump shot is badly needed in Denver while his lack of passing will fit fine on a team that already has plenty of playmaking. Third, I’m also giving some credit to an excellent study from Grandstand Staff’s Dr. Rajpal Brar, who feels Porter’s risk of re-injury is as small as 10–12% over the next decade. MPJ lost a lot of money on draft night but might have saved his career in the long run. This was a home run swing by Denver. A healthy Porter could turn into Melo II for Denver, only this time he’s surrounded by Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, and Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets are coming.

I don’t have too much more to say about Zhaire or Shai. I don’t love either of their fits, but I still believe in their talent and upside. I thought Philadelphia should’ve taken Smith at 10; instead they traded down six picks, got him anyway, saved a million dollars in cap room, and picked up a super valuable 2021 Miami trade chip. That’s an A+++ trade you make every time. Shai moves into a crowded Clippers guard rotation but fits the Jerry West style of play. Both guys have big defensive potential that should be developed well on their new rosters.

Tier 3B: Big Men on the Wrong Teams

7. F?! Marvin Bagley, Sacramento (previous 3, actual 2) 8. C DeAndre Ayton, Phoenix (previous 8, actual 1) 9. C Mohamed Bamba, Orlando (previous 5, actual 6)

Bagley was the big loser on draft night. He reportedly put on the Sacramento jersey in workouts and told them he wanted to be a King, but be careful what you wish for. Who’s the last young player the Kings successfully developed and kept around? I’ll wait. Bagley joins a team that was dead last in the league in pace and one that has about 17 other big men blocking his path to center, so much that he could end up playing some small forward. That might help him develop some ball skills long term, and it’s my belief in his long-term talent that keeps him from dropping further, but this is a miserable fit.

That could change though. What if the Kings made Aaron Gordon a big offer, then rebuilt the roster around an up-tempo lineup featuring De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Aaron Gordon, and Marvin Bagley? I can get into that team. I just don’t believe they’ll move that direction.

Quiet winners of the Bagley pick: the Boston Celtics. They own Sacramento’s first round pick next year, and the Kings are going to be really bad. Doncic may have lessened that, but Bagley won’t.

I gave all my thoughts already on DeAndre Ayton. Prove me wrong, big guy.

I’m amused by Orlando’s obsession with long wingspan dudes, but I’m not amused with their lack of player development or offensive skill. Bamba joins a crowded front court on a team without a point guard and one that has no recent history of successfully developing raw young big men (see also: Bismack Biyombo, Jonathan Isaac, etc). The Magic keep drafting guys I love in theory, but putting them all together on a team without a plan just makes me sad.

Tier 4 — The Building Blocks

Tier 4A: The Sure Things

10. Wing Josh Okogie, Minnesota (previous 13, actual 20) 11. Wing Kevin Huerter, Atlanta (previous 12, actual 19) 12. C Robert Williams, Boston (previous 15, actual 27)

Tier 4 keeps the same guys but ranks them in a slightly revised order.

Okogie moves to the top of the list because he’s such a good fit in Minnesota, where his defensive abilities will be nourished and his catch-and-shoot and free throw drawing game is just what the doctor ordered on offense. Can’t you see a little Jimmy Butler in Josh Okogie? I was excited for what Butler might bring out in Andrew Wiggins, and ship has sailed, but the Okogie pairing brings new life.

I loved the Huerter and Williams picks. Huerter gets a chance at Splash Bros II next to Trae Young. I compared Huerter pre-draft to Klay Thompson, so it’s the perfect fit. He’s going to get a lot of good looks with Trae’s gravity, but his defense doesn’t measure up. Williams was one of the draft’s biggest steals. His inconsistent effort will be fixed under Brad Stevens. Boston gets a guy with a clear rim-running role on an awesome contract. The rich get richer.

13. Wing Mikal Bridges, Phoenix (previous 10, actual 10) 14. C Wendell Carter, Chicago (previous 11, actual 7) 15. F Miles Bridges, Charlotte (previous 14, actual 12)

I’m not excited about Mikal Bridges or Wendell Carter because of the poor team-building concept. Bridges and Carter will be fine, useful NBA players. They’re not going to be the answer for any franchise but they fill a needed role and will improve a team by a few wins. And that does basically nothing for two teams in Phoenix and Chicago that are a long ways from the playoffs. All it really does is willingly trade down a couple spots in the lottery the next couple years. Chicago missed a chance to take a swing on huge upside, while Phoenix gave their upside guy (Zhaire Smith) away and overpaid for a low-upside role player that does a lot of the same things Josh Jackson does. I don’t love Jackson and Bridges together since neither is strong enough to be an elite primary defender, and I don’t buy Carter as a strong defensive option protecting Lauri Markkanen. These are the sort of guys that could have been really valuable on the right team, but these ain’t it.

I just can’t talk myself into Miles Bridges, and I’m not excited about him on the Hornets, where talent goes to die (or get injured). If Charlotte plays him at the four while guys like Kemba Walker or Malik Monk are on the court, they’re going to get killed defensively.

Tier 4.5 — Second Round Steals

16. G De’Anthony Melton, Houston (previous 18, actual 46) 17. C Mitchell Robinson, New York (previous 16, actual 36) 18. PG Elie Okobo, Phoenix (previous 17, actual 31)

I had to make a new tier between Tiers 4 and 5, not quite sure thing building blocks but definitely guys I like ahead of the next group.

Melton and Okobo are my two favorite guys I didn’t know were apparently sleepers. I thought both would be gone just outside the lottery, but instead they each slipped to the second round. I absolutely love the Melton fit in Houston, a Patrick Beverley clone with a clear role and a guy that will pay dividends for them immediately next summer. For Okobo, he comes over immediately from France and has a clear path to a job with no real point guard blocking his path in Phoenix. He was by far my favorite Suns pick.

I still love Mitchell Robinson, and I really love his fit next to Kristaps Porzingis. I do not love Knicks culture, and culture was going to be a big thing with Robinson, so that keeps him as something of a lottery ticket.

Tier 5 — Wing Beauty Is in the Eye of the Beholder

Tier 5A: What You See Is What You Get

19. PG Jalen Brunson, Dallas (previous 21, actual 33) 20. Wing Jacob Evans, Golden State (previous 22, actual 28)

It’s really hard to see either of these two failing in the NBA. Brunson could have hardly gone to a better fit than Dallas, a team that plays multiple point guards and always knows how to use undersized creators. Look at what they’ve done with guys like J.J. Barea, Seth Curry, and Yogi Ferrell, and Brunson is much better than all three of those guys. He’s going to have a long useful career, and he and Doncic will help Dallas a lot immediately. Evans was a steal for Golden State, an archetypal 3-and-D wing who will play valuable minutes in June.

Tier 5B: Movin’ On Up

21. Wing Chandler Hutchison, Chicago (previous 26, actual 22) 22. Wing Khyri Thomas, Detroit (previous 27, actual 38) 23. G Landry Shamet, Philadelphia (previous 28, actual 26)

I had these three ranked right in a row a little further below, and I like their fit enough to slide them up a few slots. Hutchison is the guy everyone had mocked to Chicago, and he’s a nice upside swing and will get plenty of playing time there. Khyri Thomas is an Avery Bradley clone that moves into an obvious AB/KCP-sized hole in Detroit. He fits their m.o. to a tee. Shamet should mean goodbye to T.J. McConnell. His length, shooting, and veteran savvy should give him a great backup guard role in Philly.

Tier 6 — Big Swings

Tier 6A: No Thanks

24. F Kevin Knox, New York (previous 25, actual 9) 25. PG Collin Sexton, Alabama (previous 24, actual 8) 26. Wing Troy Brown, Washington (previous 19, actual 15) 27. Wing Lonnie Walker, Miami (previous 35+, actual 18)

Welp, here we are.

I didn’t like Knox or Sexton at all before the draft, and then they went in the top ten. I don’t mind Knox conceptually in New York as a four next to Porzingis as that’s a lot of shooting and spacing and size potential, but it feels very theoretical and I don’t believe in the Knicks’ ability to develop it. I hate everything about the Sexton pick, especially that Cleveland invested so heavily in him that they’re doomed to give him way too many chances the next few years. At least he’s used to playing 3-on-5.

Troy Brown was really raw for Oregon but seemed like a nice lottery ticket for some team to take, but I don’t think that team is Washington, where Brown feels too similar to Otto Porter and won’t get enough reps with the ball in his hands. I like him a lot more if the rumored Porter-for-Boogie swap comes to fruition.

As for Lonnie Walker, he’s the one guy that was talked about as a lottery pick that I just couldn’t talk myself into… and then the Spurs drafted him. Well, crap. It’s never a good feeling when someone you don’t like gets drafted by Boston or San Antonio. Got me already on Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Dejounte Murray and others. I still feel like Lonnie Walker projects to J.R. Smith or Zach LaVine with less athleticism, and I just can’t imagine that sort of player working in San Antonio, so this is as high as I can bump him.

Tier 6B: Really Good at a Specific Thing

28. F Keita Bates-Diop, Minnesota (previous 31, actual 48) 29. F Gary Clark, Houston (previous 23, actual UDFA) 30. G Jevon Carter, Memphis (previous NR, actual 32) 31. PG Aaron Holiday, Indiana (previous 35+, actual 23) 32. G Shake Milton, Philadelphia (previous 29, actual 54)

Truth be told, I like the chances for any of these guys to stick in their role more than I like the four guys above, but upside is upside at this point of a draft. KBD is a great fit if Minnesota gives him minutes and was a steal at 48. Gary Clark seems like an awesome fit in Houston and wouldn’t have dropped for me, but going undrafted just gives you far fewer chances. I didn’t love Jevon Carter or Aaron Holiday pre-draft but really like their fits. Carter feels very Memphis, and Holiday gets a shot where other small guards have succeeded in Indiana. I like Milton’s fit too, just not sure he’s going to get enough playing time to prove it. I don’t mind Philly taking two swings at the same type of player when they need shooting so badly.

Tier 6C: A Hope and a Prayer

33. Wing Dzanan Musa, Brooklyn (previous 30, actual 29) 34. Wing Melvin Frazier, Orlando (previous 20, actual 35) 35. Wing Isaac Bonga, L.A. Lakers (previous 32, actual 39) 36. F Jarred Vanderbilt, Denver (previous 33, actual 41)

This is all about upside. Frazier is a guy I probably ranked too high, and going to Orlando reverses that in a hurry (see also: Bamba). Musa is a nice late swing for Brooklyn, and I love Denver’s draft with two huge upside swings.

Other Notables

G Donte DiVincenzo, Milwaukee (previous 35+, actual 17) C Moritz Wagner, L.A. Lakers (previous 35+, actual 25) C Omari Spellman, Atlanta (previous NR, actual 30) PG Anfernee Simons, Portland (previous 35+, actual 24) G Grayson Allen, Utah (previous NR, actual 21)

These are four real-life first round picks I didn’t like at all.

DiVincenzo gets the Brandon Jennings role for Milwaukee I guess. I hated that pick for a team that badly needed wing depth in a wing-rich draft. The Bucks have precious few ways to add talent around Giannis, and I think they really blew this one.

I understand the Wagner and Spellman picks, but I don’t love them. Everyone wants a shooting big man now, and the draft was top heavy on bigs before a huge drop off. Both went 15 or 25 picks early. Wagner will fill a familiar role for the Lakers. Atlanta went all in on the shooters thing with Trae Young and Kevin Huerter, but Spellman in the first was a bridge too far with a lot of other talent available.

I don’t get the Simons pick. I guess he takes Shabazz Napier’s role? There’s theoretical upside here but not on the Dame/C.J. timeline, and not someone that can play with them anyway.

Grayson Allen sucks. He also trips, and he probably bites too. I’m sorry you had to find out this way.

Be sure to check out Brandon’s pre-draft Big Board Manifesto for many further thoughts on scouting on all of the above players.

Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, humor, and pop culture. Visit Brandon’s writing archives here. Thanks again to Basketball Reference, Jackson Hoy’s draft database, and countless other draftniks and resources, namely: Cole Zwicker, Jonathan Tjarks, Jonathan Givony, JZ Mazlish, Nate Duncan, Danny Leroux, Sean Derenthal, Kevin O’Connor, The Flagrant 2, Michael Margolis, Jake Paynting, Evan Zamir, plus Mike Gribanov, Ben Rubin, everyone else at The Stepien, and a number of other folks not on Medium.