2019 NBA Awards Season

The Perfect 2019 All-NBA Teams

Do LeBron or Russ make the team? Gobert or KAT? And which guards and forwards sneak onto Third Team?

It’s 2019 NBA Awards season, and you know the drill. The first round of the playoffs have been predictably boring, so let’s take a look back at the 2018–19 season and recognize some of the league’s best players. The All-NBA teams this year are super interesting, thanks to a glut of wonderful center options, a trio of difficult First-Team choices, and a slew of guard options for the Third Team.

The All-NBA teams are about choosing the 15 best players to represent that season. Games and minutes played matter, especially in case of tiebreaker, but mostly we’re just interested in picking the best 15 players. A lot can change in one year; this year’s First Team picks feature three different starters than my picks a year ago. So who makes this year’s perfect First, Second, and Third-Team All-NBA?

FORWARDS

First Team — Giannis Antetokounmpo, Paul George

Antetokounmpo was the best player in basketball. Whatever position you decide to call him, he’s First Team at that. We’ll talk more about him in the MVP piece.

The second First-Team spot has three options, really: PG, KD, and Kawhi. Let’s do a quick little breakdown.

• Scoring — Durant was the most efficient. Kawhi scored the most per minute. PG scored the most. Negligible differences mostly. Call it even.
• Passing — Durant had 457 assists this year, a career-high by almost 100 and over 2.5 times as many as Kawhi. His 5.9apg ranked top 20 in the NBA. Advantage KD.
• Efficiency — Durant had the worst three-point percentage and fewest free throws but made the most twos by far and finished with the top true shooting. PG had the best three-point percentage of his career and best of the trio but finished with the worst true shooting. Kawhi was right in the middle but had the fewest turnovers and fouls. Slight ding to PG here, who never quite gets that two-point percentage up.
• Defense — Paul George is a DPOY candidate. Kawhi is in theory but didn’t crank it up often enough this year to get there. Durant is the worst defender of the three by far, especially when the Ws mail it in half the time. Huge setback for Durant.
• Minutes played — George played 2841; KD 2702; Kawhi just 2040 in 60 games. Rest or not, 33% more time from PG or KD is worth a lot. Huge setback for Kawhi here.
• Perceived value to team — Durant was the most consistent player on the West top seed but the Warriors would be fine without him. Kawhi was by far the best player in Toronto, but the Raptors went 19–5 with him resting. George carried OKC for a month or two, and without him, the team is a chucking Russ and a bunch of non-shooters. We’ve seen how important PG is with a crippled version of him remaining these playoffs.

It’s those last three things that swing this to Paul George. He wasn’t quite as valuable on offense as KD or Kawhi, but he played more, played harder, added far more defensive value, and did the most for his team.

Second Team — Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard

Not much else needs to be said. If you subscribe to the theory that All-NBA should just represent the best players regardless of games played (within reason), then Kawhi Leonard should be First Team. He was definitely the best non-Giannis forward when he was out there.

But no matter how you slice it, those were the top four forwards in the league by a wide margin.

Third Team — Blake Griffin, LeBron James

These are boring picks, I know. Sometimes picks are boring because they’re right. That’s why we did the forwards first.

Blake Griffin has to be there. He single-handedly dragged the Pistons to the playoffs, yes in the East, I know, but let’s just recognize and appreciate the fact that Griffin just had his best season ever at age 30. Blake put up 25/8/5 this year, numbers matched by only 17 other players in NBA history, all of whom will be in the Hall of Fame someday (depending on Boogie). Griffin made 191 threes his entire career before this season, then hit 189 this year alone at a perfectly passable 36% clip. He also played the third most minutes of his career and set a career high in assists, doing a little bit of everything.

Of course, LeBron bested Blake Griffin at all those numbers, because he always does. LeBron disappointed us this year with a 27/9/8 line on 69% true shooting, which is just about the most absurd sentence you can write. The problem is he only played 55 games, so few that he doesn’t even appear on any of the official NBA statistical leader boards. LeBron was definitely the fifth best forward this year when he played — it’s still weird needing to add two limiters on that phrase — but did he play enough?

Yes and no. No, he didn’t play enough for the Lakers. But yes, he played enough to make All NBA, in part because of the dearth of realistic options behind him.

Jimmy Butler? You mean the guy that tanked his team for a quarter of a season? Pascal Siakam? He has a better case than you think, but are you really writing Siakam on your All-NBA ballot with LeBron still playing? Danilo Gallinari? He scored 20ppg on 46/43/90 shooting with maybe his best season ever. He also played only 122 minutes more than LeBron.

So you tell me. You want a full season of Siakam, a really good Gallo year, or 1937 minutes of the best LeBron can give you?

Next question.

CENTERS

First Team — Joel Embiid Second Team — Nikola Jokic

The margin here is razor-thin, so much so that I literally changed my mind between the time I did my research and when I started writing the piece.

Embiid is obviously the better defender, by a wide margin. Jokic clearly did more to lift his teammates on offense, with 580 assists to 234 from Embiid.

Jokic had no All-Star teammates this year and carried Denver to the West 2-seed. Embiid has three teammates that had an All-Star case and finished third in the East. And that’s in part because Jokic played 80 games to 64 from Embiid, an additional 450 minutes on the court. Jokic definitely ranks higher on my MVP ballot, significantly, and I figured that was enough to push him ahead here too.

But All-NBA is more about recognizing the best player than it is about value. And how do you balance Jokic’s offense versus Embiid’s defense?

Well, you might have to notice that Embiid took a huge leap forward in efficiency this year and that Jokic was not as efficient as usual. Embiid made only 30% of his threes despite a high volume, but Jokic was just as poor at 31% on similar volume. Jokic made his twos a little better, but Embiid drew almost twice as many free throws and actually had a higher true shooting percentage than Jokic this year. Embiid also had the lower turnover rate despite higher usage, and he had more rebounds than Jokic despite playing 450 fewer minutes.

Both were terrific this year, and both have been wonderful in the first round of the playoffs. Edge goes to Embiid, who closed the gap on offense enough for his defense to outweigh Jokic at a defense-first position.

Third Team — Rudy Gobert

Gobert has had a miserable go of it in the playoffs. But this is a regular season award, so that’s irrelevant.

What do you do with a player like Gobert in the age of advanced metrics? By all the advanced metrics, Gobert is not only the easy choice here, he’s easily the First-Team center and the second or third best player in the league. Gobert ranked among the league leaders in both offensive (133) and defensive (100) rating. He was third in win shares behind Giannis and Harden and second in win share rate, ahead of The Beard. He was second in the league in true shooting percentage. He’s going to win Defensive Player of the Year a second consecutive season. Rudy Gobert breaks advanced metrics.

The problem is we have growing reason to believe a lot of modern rim-running centers do that. Advanced metrics alone would put Clint Capela (133 ortg, 66% true shooting) on an All-NBA team too, ahead of Joel Embiid. They’d tell us Andre Drummond (100 drtg, 0.181 WS/48) and Hassan Whiteside (99 drtg, 0.180 WS/48) are clear top-10 centers like Al Horford and LaMarcus Aldridge, players everyone agrees are better. And most damning of all, they’d throw Jazz teammate Derrick Favors (124 ortg, 103 drtg, 62% true shooting, 0.215 WS/48) into the Third-Team All NBA mix, not far behind Gobert. For guys that play defense, rack up rebounds near the rim, and only dunk the ball, we can’t go by just the advanced metrics anymore.

Which brings us to Karl-Anthony Towns. And don’t get me wrong — KAT’s advanced metrics are plenty good too, at 62% true shooting and 0.197 WS/48, but it’s it’s traditional counting numbers that really catch your eye. Towns put up 24/12/3 this year on 52/40/84 shooting, a handful of free throws from entering an historic shooting club as a big man. He was even better over the game’s final 25 games, with a 28/13/4 line and 45% shooting from downtown.

But as good as Towns was, he was nearly matched step-for-step by Nikola Vucevic. Towns had 24/12/3; Vuc was at 21/12/4. They’re nearly identical lines and similar overall performances. Towns shot better from deep. Vucevic played far better defense and put his numbers up in games that mattered, leading his team back to the playoffs.

Both Towns and Vuc are worthy considerations for Third Team, but their dual existence mute each other a bit. Gobert may need a few asterisks by his gaudy advanced metrics, but the metrics are still so far ahead of any of his peers, and his defense so valuable, that he’s worth recognizing even if we don’t quite understand exactly what his value is. He gets the final spot.

GUARDS

First Team — James Harden, Damian Lillard

Like with Antetokounmpo, not much needs to be said about James Harden. Only 30 NBA seasons ever have seen someone put up 30/5/5. Harden had 36/7/8, clearing those benchmarks by a sidestep, and he did it with the fourth-best true shooting of anyone in the group. This was not Kobe or Pistol Pete chucking his way to 30ppg. James Harden just had one of the best offensive seasons of all time.

The second spot on the team comes down to two Oakland guys: one playing there now, and one who grew up there. The numbers are very close: Curry at 27/5/5 and Dame at 26/5/7. Steph’s shooting numbers are better, because of course they are, but Lillard’s are quite good in his own right. Neither is great on defense, but both try hard enough and do their job. Lillard created more for his teammates, and he had to shoulder much more of the burden, especially with injuries to Jusuf Nurkic and C.J. McCollum late in the season.

Curry was slightly better this season, which is not a knock on Steph as much as a reminder to how awesome Dame has been. But Lillard played over 500 minutes more than Curry, who missed 18 games, and with such a close margin everywhere else, I’d like to reward the guy who gave his heart and soul willing his team back from an embarrassing first round sweep to carry his team to the West 3-seed rather than the one who sleepwalked through most of the year waiting for May.

Second Team — Stephen Curry, Kyrie Irving

Curry makes Second Team by a hair, which means no Warriors on the First Team and feels a little silly. But also, maybe it’s not silly because how impressive is it really to have that collection of talent and go 57–25? LeBron got rightly penalized for years, losing MVP votes as the best player in the league because he didn’t give his all in the regular season. It’s only fair to ding the Warriors in a similar fashion this year.

Kyrie Irving is an easy choice next to him, and the numbers put him pretty darn near Dame and Steph statistically. He’s two points short of Dame’s 26/5/7, and three points back and two assists ahead of Steph. Kyrie shot slightly better than Lillard, and he defended a little better than both. His win share rate is a few thousandths per 48 minutes behind either player. Kyrie Irving was spectacular this year. But the uneven leadership, to put it politely, plus the fact that he played even fewer minutes than Curry, kill any real First Team case Irving might have.

But make no mistake about it — Kyrie Irving was far better than any of the guards we’re about to consider for Third Team.

Third Team — Russell Westbrook, Kemba Walker

This was truly and genuinely impossible.

The list of guys that ought to be seriously considered for Third-Team All-NBA guard, in alphabetical order: Bradley Beal, Eric Bledsoe, Mike Conley, Jrue Holiday, Ben Simmons, Kemba Walker, and Russell Westbrook. Honestly, you can pick any two of those seven guys and make a very compelling case.

Holiday was the first cut for me. His numbers benefit greatly from pace, and he has the second worst shooting of the crew. Any Holiday argument here begins with his defensive value, and most of the defensive numbers just don’t speak up enough for him. Defense is a team game, and maybe Holiday just didn’t have enough help, but he doesn’t stand out here.

Simmons is next. Yes, he’s a guard, and no, we shouldn’t feel “disappointed” with a 17/9/8 sophomore season. But we do anyway, and it’s because it never really felt like Simmons hit his stride this season, never really found the right role. His defense didn’t measure up to last year, he still can’t shoot, and there were too many games Simmons just faded into the background.

Eric Bledsoe has the most efficient numbers of the bunch, but he also scored 5 or 10 points a game less than all of these guys and, quite frankly, just didn’t have to do as much. The defense was outstanding, but when you’re the third or fourth option on offense and get to benefit from all that spacing, it hurts your case. It’s just too hard to take Bledsoe at 16ppg with these other options.

We’re down to four for two spots: Westbrook, Walker, Beal, and Conley. And that’s the order I rank them in.

Conley’s counting numbers are lowest of the four, but he also played at the slowest pace and had the least help, which is truly saying something when you’re comparing him to the train wreck rosters in Charlotte and Washington. Conley is also a useful defender still, not something Beal or Kemba can say. He also played the most meaningless games of the bunch.

Beal exploded for 27/5/6 over the final 25 games, and that’s essentially his line for the year minus a couple points, but his numbers were mostly empty too. I gave the tiniest of edges to Kemba, who slowed down in the home stretch instead of accelerating, but who also gave every fiber of his being to a Charlotte playoff push that lasted until the final night. Who was the second best Hornet this year? Was it… Jeremy Lamb? It might have been Jeremy Lamb. I rank those three Kemba, Beal, Conley by the tiniest, slimmest of margins.

And at the end of the day, I just can’t leave Russ out of the mix. His shooting was atrocious this year, both the 29% volume-shooting threes and the career-worst 66% from the line. Stars aren’t supposed to have 50% true shooting, not in 2019. But stars also aren’t supposed to average triple-doubles at 23/11/11 and do it for a third straight season. Westbrook is still a superstar, even if it feels like he takes as much off the table some nights as he puts on it. But man, does he put a lot on the table. All those rebounds matter, because rebounds mean possessions, and they often mean quick, good looks for teammates. Assists matter because they’re literally worth two or three points, and Westbrook led the league in dimes by two whole assists per game. And while Russ can certainly fall asleep at times on defense, his hustle and energy make a huge impact and he was part of a top five defense in the league.

You can go with Beal if you like, or Conley. But I say Russell Westbrook deserves at least one more All-NBA berth, woeful shooting and all.

Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here. Thanks to Basketball Reference as always.