Zion Williamson is already a top-10 NBA asset

Some NBA team is about to win a literal lottery, and Zion Williamson is an all-time great prize

The 2019 NBA lottery is here at last. The whole charade is one of the NBA’s longest and weirdest traditions. Executives from 14 NBA teams will gather in a small room filled with ping pong balls, lucky charms, and nostalgia, and one by one, Adam Silver will open an envelope and read off the news that will shape NBA destinies forever.

It’s a superstars league, and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, Damian Lillard, and Stephen Curry led their teams to the Conference Finals. Sure, there were big moments from role players, but it’s a star-driven league and the easiest way to get stars is to have a pick at the top of the draft. Not every number one pick is a superstar — just ask Anthony Bennett — but the top pick is the only way to get the super-duper-stars we anoint before they’re even in the league, guys like LeBron James, Tim Duncan, and Anthony Davis. Guys like Zion Williamson.

The right guy at number one changes everything. LeBron, Duncan, and Brow saved their franchises. Duncan and LeBron brought a championship home for the first time to their franchise. CNBC reports LeBron James was worth hundreds of millions of dollars to the Cleveland economy, and his presence on the team more than doubled the franchise value. When we call it an NBA “lottery,” the name is apt. Some NBA franchise could literally be winning a billion-dollar lottery today.

But that’s only if everyone is right about Zion Williamson. Is he really one of the best NBA Draft prospects ever? Is he really even the surefire #1 pick? Yes, and definitely yes. In fact, Zion Williamson is so valuable he’s already a top-10 asset in the entire NBA.

Are we sure Zion is this good?

It’s fair to wonder whether Zion Williamson will live up to the hype. After all, we’ve never seen anything like him before. Of course, that’s psychological bias. Five years ago, no one had seen a successful tiny point guard bombing threes. A decade ago, no one knew if a 7-foot dude could handle and shoot like a guard. Lately we’re learning that insanely long Gumby dudes from overseas can play pretty good ball even without a jump shot. Nobody had ever seen Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, or Giannis Antetokounmpo a decade ago. Now everyone wants to find the next Steph, KD, or Giannis.

Zion isn’t any of those players, and he’s not Big Baby with defense or Draymond with athleticism or any other comparison. But he might be really, really good regardless.

Zion enters the NBA as one of its most sensational athletes. He’s not a good athlete or a great one. He’s a once-in-a-lifetime athlete. That athleticism alone gives him a super high NBA floor. So does his basketball IQ. Williamson processes things quickly and has an incredible feel for the game. His instincts are worth a half-step on both ends of the court, and he’s already a step ahead of everyone else with his natural abilities. The two together are a dynamic combo. Maybe Zion won’t be an MVP but, barring a physical problem, he’s almost certain to be at least a good rotation player. He’s too athletic, too smart, too valuable on defense alone to be anything less than that.

There’s more. Zion’s footwork is outstanding. His touch is incredible. His dribble is impressive for a player of his size. His three needs work but led his three lottery teammates at Duke. Zion is a fullback playing basketball. At 6'7 and 285 pounds, he’ll enter the NBA as its second heaviest player. He can go through you, around you, or just right over you.

Zion is more than just highlight dunks, but the huge number of dunks is a pretty good indicator of success. Many of those dunks come because Zion gets such quick, immediate lift or because of his innate rebounding ability to get the ball near the rim and go back up. Others come because of his amazing defensive instincts, which a few times every game allow Williamson to grab and go off a steal or a block, a freight train to the rim, a highlight in the making. Zion averaged four stocks a game at Duke. His steal rate was 3.9%, his block rate 5.8%. If you’re not familiar with those ratings, put them in some sort of statistical database and it’ll spit out: ERROR, DOES NOT COMPUTE.

Zion is a transition monster in both directions. He’s a chase-down block waiting to happen, and he’ll swallow guys whole if they dare try to stop him barreling toward the rim. On defense he’s Earl Thomas, a free safety that takes away entire swaths of the field and still manages to cover everything else too most of the time. Zion has Defensive Player of the Year potential. He might have the most offensive and defensive upside in the 2019 draft.

Are there questions? Of course, and there will be until he wins multiple MVPs and rings. That’s how this stuff works. His handle is good but not great. His jump shot will need a makeover. There will be conditioning questions, and there will always be concerns about how well his athleticism will age and whether it makes him susceptible to a major injury.

Some have argued that Zion might not be the sure thing at #1 because they’re “not sure” he’s the next LeBron. Oh really? Folks, LeBron is the most physically gifted basketball player of all time. Zion can be pretty darn good without being LeBron. You can be aware of the hyperbole without needing to veer so heavily in the other direction.

Zion Williamson is the number one pick, and it’s malpractice to even consider anyone else from this draft class over him. He would have been the number one pick last year too, and the year before that, and the one before that. He’s one of the most valuable NBA draft picks of all time.

But he’s even more valuable than that. He might be an immediate top-10 asset in the entire NBA. Let’s run through the list.

Forget about trading Zion for most rookie contracts

The 2017 draft class looked like an all-time class a year ago. People glowed talking about Jayson Tatum and Donovan Mitchell, and that was before De’Aaron Fox broke out. All wonderful players. But Zion’s floor might be as high as their likely ceilings. You’re kidding yourself if you think Boston, Utah, and Sacto wouldn’t leap at the chance to trade their young stars for Zion.

Trae Young came on strong late, and Deandre Ayton had a pretty solid rookie year. Jaren Jackson Jr. looked the part defensively. None of them are even in Zion’s universe. Jamal Murray and Pascal Siakam broke out in these playoffs. Kristaps Porzingis flashes the most superstar potential of any of them, but there’s injuries and off-court mess and he’s a free agent anyways.

These are all really, really good young players. Future franchise players, some of them. And general managers would personally drive every one of them to their new homes if they could swap them for Zion.

Rule out a bunch of really good veterans too

Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard are ineligible. They’re weeks (or four losses) away from free agency. It’s not cheating the system to say their asset value is less than Zion — they’re about to be out of a contract, and Williamson is going to be on a rookie contract the next four years and under team control the next eight or nine. That’s part of his immense value. You can rule out Kyrie Irving, Jimmy Butler, Klay Thompson, and other free-agents-to-be, too.

What about players like Rudy Gobert, Victor Oladipo, or Bradley Beal? Wonderful players, all of them. Each is a threat to make All-NBA any given season, and each is just entering their prime around age 26 or 27 and signed two more years on below-max contracts. And you know what? They’d all get traded for Zion in a heartbeat. Their GMs wouldn’t even hesitate.

What about Russell Westbrook? He won an MVP and has averaged a triple-double three straight seasons. But he’s also past his prime coming off one of the worst volume-shooting seasons in modern NBA, and he’s owed $170 million the next four years. Zion Williamson will make about 20% of that, and he’ll almost certainly be a more valuable NBA player by the end of that contract, if not already. Would you rather have Russ or Zion plus an extra $35 million in cap room? It’s a pretty easy choice.

Devin Booker isn’t nearly as expensive but still costs $158 million the next five years, and at age 22, he’s still only starting to tap into his potential. But you really want a shooting guard that’s been one of the worst five defenders in the league over the cheap MVP talent that could transform an NBA defense and lead to an efficient offense? You’re going with the guy that’s won 75 games in four NBA seasons? Come on.

That doesn’t mean Booker and Westbrook aren’t good, and it doesn’t mean Gobert and Beal aren’t All-NBA. Zion is just far more valuable.

Just a *chance* at Zion is many teams’ best asset

Maybe the craziest part of all this is how valuable it is to even have a chance at Zion Williamson.

The Knicks had the worst record in the league, so they have the best odds at winning the number one pick at 14%. That chance alone is more valuable than anything else on their roster. Of course, there isn’t much else on the roster, so that’s not really that impressive.

What about the Cavs? They have a 14% chance at Zion too. That chance is far more valuable than anything else on their roster. It’s probably more valuable than every other Cleveland asset combined. Chicago’s odds are slightly lower at 12.5%, and they have coveted young assets in Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter. No matter. That 1-in-8 chance at Zion is significantly more valuable to Chicago than two big men that project as very good starters. Very good starters are a nice start. But Zion changes everything. In the NBA, you always trade two quarters for a dollar. And you definitely trade them for a possible Benjamin.

It’s not just those teams, though. Charlotte and Miami almost made the playoffs, so they each have only a 1% chance at Zion. But that 1% shot at Williamson might still be more valuable than any other Hornets or Heat asset. Miles Bridges? Josh Richardson? Malik Monk or Bam Adebayo? Respectfully, those are the sort of players whose careers will one day be remembered for that one huge play they had as a role player on a contender, or for the first-round series when they stepped up as the third-best player and helped push their team over the finish line. That’s great, and it takes nothing away from those players. But 1% of a potential billion-dollar asset is worth more than those guys. It just is.

In fact, you could argue that a team like Detroit ought to have tanked their way out of the playoffs. The Pistons got swept like it was no one’s business. What did that do for anyone? Miss the playoffs by a game and you get a 1-in-200 shot at Zion. And that 0.5% chance is exceedingly more valuable than any Pistons asset. Zion Williamson could’ve help save Detroit’s economy. Instead the Pistons lost to the Bucks by 95 points in four games.

The Grizzlies are happy with Jaren Jackson Jr. The Wizards loved Bradley Beal’s breakout. But would a 6 or 9% chance at Zion be worth more? JJJ and Beal are complimentary pieces. Zion is a title-builder.

The Hawks and Suns are the toughest to talk you into. Atlanta’s got Trae Young and John Collins, two mighty fine young pieces. Phoenix has Booker and Ayton. Would the Hawks really prefer a 10.5% chance at Zion, or the Suns a 14% shot, than their own young assets? Maybe they wouldn’t. In fact, they very likely would not have. But perhaps they should.

Zion is so valuable that some enterprising general manager should have tried to trade for pick-swap rights this season, literally just trading for a few extra percentage chances at Zion. That alone is worth so much that it’d have been worth giving up a player like Malik Monk or Bam Adebayo, just for a better shot. It sounds absolutely ludicrous, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t true.

Can you imagine your GM trading a player for nothing but a few more ping-pong combinations? A true lottery. But the NBA isn’t socialism. Only one team wins the championship each year. Everyone else just loses in the end.

That’s almost a third of the league whose single best asset may simply be a chance at Williamson. Zion himself would be the best asset on many more teams than that. But for eight or nine of them, just the possibility of winning the lottery is the best hope their franchise has. For at least a few more hours.

So are any assets worth trading Zion for?!

Yes, some NBA assets are so valuable that they should not be traded for Zion.

Start with Giannis Antetokounmpo. That one’s easy. Giannis is 24, about to win the MVP, the franchise cornerstone of a 1-seed, and he could well be a month from his first title. He’s signed two more years on a below-max contract. Giannis might be the one asset in the entire NBA no one would even think about trading for Zion.

Others would at least merit a closed-door conversation, even if the answer is no. Steph Curry and James Harden are both entering the wrong stage of their respective careers, and they’re ridiculously expensive. But they’re also Steph and Beard, two of the greatest guards in NBA history, still in their primes. It would be franchise treason for Golden State or Houston to trade them away in this window for Zion. But they’d at least have to think twice about it.

Then there are the elite young centers: Nikola Jokic, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Joel Embiid. Each is signed at least four more years, so there’s no threat of them leaving. Each is already a top-20 player and hasn’t even entered their prime. Could Zion be better than all of them? Sure, he might be. He’ll be far better defensively than Joker or KAT, and he’s more versatile and healthier than Embiid. Maybe swapping one of those bigs for Zion gives those teams a slightly higher long-term outcome. Maybe in a few years that’s the difference of Denver or Philly winning Game 7 instead of losing it. But the margin is thin and those three are so good already. Their teams turn down Zion.

That’s six teams that would turn down a Zion trade because they have a more valuable asset. There aren’t many more.

Luka Doncic is one of the most fascinating questions. If it were a year ago and we hadn’t seen Luka in the NBA, Zion is the better, surer prospect. But now that Zion is still an NBA what-if and Doncic is already on the verge of All-NBA at age 20 and a likely future MVP candidate? The edge may go to Luka, ever so slightly. That one can go either way, depending on what you think of the upside of two of the most unique players to enter the league in a long time. Ben Simmons has only a year left on his rookie contract and all sorts of fit and upside questions after another disappointing playoff run. That’s a no.

Anthony Davis is another name you’re wondering about. I’m actually not sure that one’s close. Brow is great but has only one year left on his contract, and he’s made it clear he does not intend to stay with New Orleans when that contract ends. The Pelicans should instantly trade Davis for Zion if they have the opportunity. There’s no world where any other trade offer gets even close. And no team should trade Zion’s rights for Davis… unless they’re trading for more than Davis. Maybe New York knows they can swap Zion for Brow and that’ll guarantee Durant and Kyrie coming to the Knicks as free agents. That changes the equation — you’re effectively trading Zion for Brow, KD, and Kyrie. But left on their own, one year of a wandering-eye Anthony Davis is just not comparable to a near-decade of Zion.

What would the Lakers do if some team offered Zion for LeBron? Williamson fits the team’s timeline better with all the young pieces, and they’d ostensibly become a free agent destination again with room for multiple max players. LeBron may finally be starting to slip a bit, and in two or three years, it’s hard to imagine him being as valuable as Zion if Williamson’s the real deal. But would L.A. really turn on LeBron after one year? This team paid Kobe Bryant a bazillion dollars well into his twilight to prove how they treat star talent. They can’t trade LeBron away now. Not even for Zion… even if they should.

That’s mostly the list. Damian Lillard and Paul George are interesting cases. Both had an MVP season, and both will be 29 next season with two years left on their contracts. They’re toss-ups. Maybe you trade for Zion, maybe you don’t. Maybe you should. Even if the answer is no for one of them, that’s still only nine players in the entire NBA more valuable than Zion.

Zion Williamson is already a top-10 asset in the NBA, and he’s a few hours away from changing the present and future destiny of an entire franchise.

Now we just need to wait and see who wins the NBA’s real, live lottery…

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