2019 NBA Draft Big Board heading into March Madness

March Madness is finally here. What NCAA prospects should you be watching as you look toward the 2019 NBA Draft?

With major conference tournaments tipping off, it’s a good time to pull back the curtains and take a look at our first 2019 NBA Draft big board for the season. Everything is still very fluid at this point. Though the regular season is in the books, many players still have four to eight high-level games to evaluate, and games at the end of the year are more valuable as we see how players have progressed over the season. There are also workouts, interviews, and more to come, so plenty can still change right up until draft day.

Still, it’s important to know where we’re starting from — though even that is a misnomer since this board changes slightly pretty much every day and has for three straight months. Hopefully this gives you somewhere to start as you begin to think about the draft and look at guys in March Madness over the next month. The further down the list, the messier it gets, and names are fluid within each tier and more easily movable the further down you scroll. That’s just how this works. Starting at Tier V, outside of my top 10, I don’t even really rank the tiers within themselves. There’s still plenty of time to do that later.

Alright, enough preamble. Let’s get to Zion and everyone else.

Tier I — ZION

1. Zion Williamson, Duke

Much has already been said about Zion, and plenty more will be written in the days to come. Let’s keep it very simple here: Zion is the number one pick, and any general manager that does something otherwise is a fireable offense.

Doncic, Jokic, Steph, Harden, Giannis, LeBron, Towns, Brow, PG, Embiid, Simmons, Dame… by my quick scan, those are the only 12 assets I’d even consider wanting more than Zion on a four-year rookie deal, and I probably wouldn’t take some of them over him. That makes the #1 pick at worst a top-15 asset in the NBA. Probably better. There hasn’t been as important a draft lottery since 2003, aka LeBron. May 14 will change the NBA landscape.

Tier II — Potential franchise players

2. Jarrett Culver, Texas Tech 3. R.J. Barrett, Duke

I’d be happy enough leaving a second tier totally empty just to show the distance between Zion and everyone else in this draft.

These are the next two guys on my board, two players I think have a chance to be primary handlers and scorers on the wing, which makes them potential franchise players in the modern NBA. Culver checks almost every box for me. He’s smart, a good team defender, good with the ball, a nice passer, and an excellent fit for the NBA. He has good size and by all accounts is a guy you want as the face of your team. The shooting looks good but has inconsistent, so that’s one thing I’ll be watching closely. Culver doesn’t get a ton of help on offense, but he has the number one defense in Texas Tech. Can he lead that team on a run to a Big 12 title or Final Four?

I’ve probably watched and taken more notes on R.J. Barrett than anyone else. He’s a frustrating player but has definitely improved as the season has gone on, and he’s far and away the second best prospect on Duke and the second most talented player in the draft. I’m just not convinced I want to hitch my NBA wagon to him. That will be another full article at some point, but if R.J. is DeMar 2.0 and you’ve read anything I’ve ever said about DeRozan, that should get you started. I really worry about him from a team-building perspective. But the talent is immense and the scoring ability at age 18 is one-in-a-billion, no matter how questionable the decision making is. He probably has to be the number two pick — I just think I’d rather trade the pick than build around him, for now.

Tier III — Winning franchise building blocks

4. DeAndre Hunter, Virginia 5. Brandon Clarke, Gonzaga 6. Jontay Porter, Missouri 7. Grant Williams, Tennessee

You could just as well call this tier “my guys,” and really Tiers II through IV are more like 2A, 2B, and 2C, but we’ll separate them for now. These four are the guys I’m going to go to bat for, these four plus Culver. They’re the five I consistently rank higher than any other draft boards I see.

For these guys, it’s all about two things: building a winning team and drafting players with a high basketball IQ and feel for the game. Those two aspects are each of these players in a nutshell. They may not have “star” potential but NBA teams win as teams, not because of a star. One guy might score 25–30ppg, but a lot of other players need to play good defense, space the court, set good screens, hit open shots, and do “role player” stuff. Role players make winning teams, and we need to stop thinking of someone as unimportant because they’re the fourth scoring option on offense.

Another thing I love about these four guys is that they slot into almost any healthy roster situation in the league. They’re team building blocks. If you draft R.J. or Morant or Hayes, they’re going to have a very specific role and you’re going to need to find very specific players to build the right winning team around them. These guys are the opposite of that. You slot them in on a roster and continue to build a winning team knowing they’ll be part of a lot of winning looks once you find the right star. They’re my guys. I’ve written about Hunter and Jontay already, and there will be more to come on all four.

Tier IV — High variance big upside swings

8. Ja Morant, Murray State 9. Cam Reddish, Duke 10. Jaxson Hayes, Texas

I’d guess I have more notes for these three players and R.J. Barrett than anyone else in the draft. I’d also guess that if you read my notes, you’d come away feeling pretty negative on all of them. That’s because there’s a lot not to like about each player. Morant and Hayes have frail frames I don’t trust. I don’t love Reddish or Hayes’s feel for the game. Morant and Reddish play with too much confidence and rack up turnovers and mistakes.

But it’s also because the things that are good are so obviously good that they’re not even worth spending much time on in my notes. Morant is an absurdly explosive athlete. Reddish is a dream on catch-and-shoot threes. Hayes has otherworldly balance, quickness, and defensive upside for his size and body. The upside for each of these players is huge and obvious. The top 5% outcome for each of them is a top-three player in the draft. The top 1% outcome is a Hall of Famer. But the bottom outcome is really bad for each, and I’m not sold on the median outcome (aka the most likely one) being as valuable as people think.

These are the guys that get general managers fired. Either because you passed on a star or because you took one and they busted. At some point, it’s a star-driven league and you have to take a shot on upside, especially in a weak draft. But these are the guys I find myself constantly frustrated with and wanting to move even lower, but there’s no one to move ahead and there’s too much upside to stay away.

Tier V — Upside with plenty of flaws (#11 to #21)

Tre Jones (Duke) Darius Garland (Vanderbilt)

Nickeil Alexander-Walker (Virginia Tech) Keldon Johnson (Kentucky)

Isaiah Roby (Nebraska) KZ Okpala (Stanford) Talen Horton-Tucker (Iowa State)

Rui Hachimura (Gonzaga) P.J. Washington (Kentucky)

Neemias Queta (Utah State) Bruno Fernando (Maryland)

It’s so fluid beginning this tier that there’s really no reason to pretend I have a clear order among those players. The guys above are sorted into position, and the further left on each position, the more I like them compared to the others at the position.

At this very moment, I would probably go with Tre, NAW, Garland, and Queta to fill out the back end of my lottery if I had to pick four names. Some guys in this tier have been slowly slipping as the season has gone on, and a poor performance down the stretch could see them slide toward the end of the first round — Keldon and Rui come to mind there. Others have taken me much of the season to build up interest but have been too hard to ignore as momentum has built — that’s THT and P.J. And then there’s Roby and Okpala, who are all potential and little production and whose workouts and interviews will weigh heavily (especially since they won’t exactly be playing basketball in March). Of course, some of these guys may not declare as well. Like I said, fluid.

Players above this tier aren’t going to move around too much. They’ll still be solid mid first round picks at worst and will probably stick in my lottery. But once this tier begins, there’s still a lot of room for movement. That’s less so for Tre, Garland, and NAW, who I don’t see falling much further, so maybe they should be in a separate tier but you get the point.

Tier VI — Guys I’m either much higher or much lower on than everyone else (#22 to #30)

Tyrese Haliburton (Iowa State)

Kevin Porter Jr. (USC)

Nassir Little (UNC) Matisse Thybulle (Washington) Jalen McDaniels (San Diego State) Chuma Okeke (Auburn)

Bol Bol (Oregon) Nic Claxton (Georgia) Naz Reid (LSU)

As I look at this tier of guys, I start to reconsider what I just wrote for the tier above — maybe the Tier V guys can’t actually slide to the end or out of the first round, because whew does this start to drop off in a hurry. I’m having a really hard time coming up with 30 guys I want to give a four-year first-round contract to in this draft. This list just happens to end at 30, not on purpose, so this would presumably be my first round today, but yikes. There are nine players in this tier. I currently project six of them to have a pretty decent chance of staying in school another year, or at least that they ought to consider it.

KPJ, Bol, Naz, and Nassir are the four guys in this tier I have way lower than most. All four of them are players whose top 1% outcome looks marvelous but even their top 10% outcome is not as exciting as I’d hope, and I don’t think they have a great chance at getting there. For all four of these players, I really question the mental side of the game — the IQ, the motor, natural feel, or some combination thereof. That’s a huge red flag, and for me, as big of a red flag as you can get. I’m not confident these four can stay on the court.

There’s a pretty good chance these four will essentially end up on my Do Not Draft list — wherever they’re ultimately ranked, it’ll be lower than consensus and low enough that I’d let some other team take them first.

Everyone else on the list is someone I tentatively have in my first round, even though I haven’t really seen it elsewhere. McDaniels has slid into this range after being grouped with Roby and Okpala much of the season, but the others have gradually risen and are players of high intrigue for me. Most of them are names that look like future first-round or even lottery picks if they develop the way that I expect.

Tier VII — First rounders in waiting (#31 to #38)

Coby White (UNC) Ashton Hagans (UK)

Romeo Langford (Indiana) Jordan Poole (Michigan)

Cam Johnson (UNC) Iggy Brazdeikis (Michigan)

Sekou Doumbouya (France)

Charles Bassey (Western Kentucky)

We’re low enough now that there are serious flaws with each of the guys in this tier. None of them are players I want to spend a first-round pick on right now. Some like Cam and Poole seem like safe enough projections but lack the upside I’d want in a first-round pick. Sekou and Bassey are long-term projects whose upside doesn’t necessarily seem worth the wait. Romeo and Coby I just can’t talk myself into, though those two guys swing wildly around my draft board and I bet at least Coby will end up in the back half of my round one by draft day.

This could probably just as well be like Tier 6B. Like the others, there’s something here I like but I’m not exactly enamored with spending a first-round pick on anyone in my 22 to 38 range right now. I’m sure a few of them will step forward over the next few weeks of games, while plenty of others will fall back.

This is not a top-heavy draft nor a deep draft. I like the depth in the middle of the first round a lot. I’d be just as happy picking 20th as picking 10th, and I’d happily trade 7 for something like 15 and 22 in most cases, especially since “my guys” probably won’t be drafted as high as I have them. But once it gets past about 25 and we get into Tiers VI and VII, it’s a pretty big drop off for me.

Tier VIII — Guys to keep an eye on

We’re at 38 guys above, which projects roughly into a full first round since some of them won’t declare. That makes these guys second rounders for now, though tournament performances, workouts, and interviews can move any of them up or out. I don’t feel the need to create a top 100 list or anything close to it. There aren’t 100 worthwhile NBA players in any draft. There are probably around 15, and once you get past about 30 or 40 in your rankings, it feels like a pretty pointless exercise to me.

Again, these guys are sorted by position and tentatively in order at each position. They look like guys that could spend some time in the G-League or on two-way contracts. Outside of a couple, they’re not really guys I need to see back in school for another year of development — they just are what they are. There’s too many of them to talk about for now, so I’ll just drop the names in here so you can see who I’m keeping my eye on. There’s 17 guys here, and the positions are fluid.

Point guards

Ty Jerome (Virginia), Markus Howard (Marquette), Ayo Dosunmu (Illinois), Carsen Edwards (Purdue), Xavier Johnson (Pittsburgh), Josh Perkins (Gonzaga), Shamorie Ponds (St. Johns)

Twos

Tyler Herro (Kentucky), Zach Norvell Jr. (Gonzaga), LuGuentz Dort (Arizona State)

Wings

Jordan Nwora (Louisville), Eric Paschall (Villanova), Admiral Schofield (Tennessee)

Fours

Jalen Smith (Maryland), Killian Tillie (Gonzaga)

Centers

Daniel Gafford (Arkansas), Goga Bitadze (Georgia)

Please leave any questions or comments below. Feel free to ask about anyone not listed as well.

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