NBA Draft Stock Rising and Falling (2/4/19)
Matisse Thybulle owns Kevin Porter Jr., Keldon Johnson is fading, and Jontay Porter is the forgotten lottery pick
With the football season officially behind us, it’s time to give our full attention to basketball. The college season is heating up as we head toward March, and most NCAA teams have played about 20 games so it’s a great time to check in on NBA draft stock around the league.
I watch a few college basketball games a day and have built a 10,000-word book of notes on prospects, but rather than saving it up for June, now seems like a good time to start checking in on the names of interest. These notes below are based mostly on my own scouting of each player and footage. I’m not projecting based on NBA intel, though I do note areas where I’m hearing similar or conflicting findings from NBA talent scouts. When I say someone is rising or falling, I’m talking about my own rankings.
My big board is very fluid after Zion Williamson, changing daily as opinions are shaped and molded each game, but some players are rising or falling more than others. Let’s take a look at why one Porter replaced another in my lottery and why Keldon Johnson is beginning to slide after sitting in my top 10 all season. We’ll do this every week or so from now on, so check back again soon.
STOCK DOWN: Kevin Porter Jr., USC
I didn’t get to see much KPJ early, waiting months for him to come back from the injury and off-court issues. He’s finally back but has been disappointing.
Porter pops on the court. He has an NBA frame, and he oozes talent and confidence. You want to see a lottery pick immediately pop as the best guy on the court, and Porter looks the part. The athleticism is there, and he has an elite handle with a great hang dribble and ability to create space and find his own shot. He’s also super young, barely 19 at the time of the draft. But right now he’s all sizzle and no steak.
It’s the mental and emotional side of the game that stands out most with Porter, and not in a good way. It feels like KPJ vacillates between full-on 100-emoji hero ball or completely disengaged, with little in between. If he doesn’t have the ball, he just stands on the perimeter disengaged, and he is straight up daydreaming on defense much of the time. Porter plays fake D, with fake effort that’s not fooling anyone, and several times I noticed USC giving up a 5-on-4 as Porter was repeatedly the last one back on defense. Porter hangs his head after a mistake, and his playing time keeps getting yanked around because no coach worth his salt would let a player with that much laziness and lack of hustle keep playing out there.
Beyond that, Porter’s shot has a long ways to go. He’s lefty-dominant to a fault on the dribble, and he has an awkward shot across his body. The free throw stroke is pretty rough too, and the 50% on 11-for-22 free throws is more worrisome to me than the 42% on 33 threes is encouraging.
The talent and flashes are certainly there for Porter, right there with anyone in this draft outside of Zion, maybe even including R.J. Barrett, and in a draft bereft of high-end upside, all it takes is one team. Porter is the sort of draft pick that gets a GM fired, one way or another. Until I see more consistent, positive play, he’s not in my lottery and currently outside my top 20.
STOCK UP: Matisse Thybulle, Washington
I was excited to tune into USC-Washington to get a good look at Kevin Porter Jr. but ended up spending all my time on Matisse Thybulle (pronounced Thigh-bull). Thybulle is a senior and the reigning PAC-12 Defensive Player of the Year, and he looks well on his way to defending his crown. He absolutely owned Porter both physically and mentally, completely erasing him in their time on the court together, a dominant defensive performance against one of the most athletically gifted players in college basketball.
Thybulle stands 6'6 but has really long arms with a 7'1 wingspan, and he’s crazy disruptive on defense. He’s such a smart defender, talks well to his teammates and organizes the D, and is always in the right spot. Thybulle’s long arms and quick hands are constantly making plays, poking the ball away, blocking guys from behind. He has immense recognition and anticipation. Thybulle is a good athlete with an NBA body and some lift-off. He’s averaging 3.2 steals and 2.1 blocks, a ridiculous 5+ stocks per game, and these aren’t cheapies. He’s just picking guys clean.
Of course, Thybulle doesn’t really score or have much of an offensive role. The IQ is there on offense too but it means he’s a leader without a major scoring role, making the smart pass and letting the offense do its thing. He looks comfortable enough dribbling when called upon, with some quick burst and ability to grab and go. The shot is questionable, but not as bad as you think. Under 32% from deep this year, Thybulle is at 37% on almost 500 career threes, plus 78% from the line. For a player that doesn’t shoot much, the career numbers are far more reliable, and that’s more than passable.
Thybulle will always be the fifth player on an NBA offense, but the athleticism, dribble, and shot look promising enough to keep him from getting the Tony Allen treatment. On defense he’ll be the team’s #1 with ability to guard one to four, maybe five in a small lineup. As a college player, Thybulle reminds me of Robbie Hummel in an NBA body, a veteran team player who leads with hustle, energy, defense, and communication. In the NBA, perhaps he can be something like P.J. Tucker. He has the size and strength to battle bigger players, and he’d be a menace switching onto smaller guards in a pick-and-roll. A lot of teams want a player like that in the modern NBA.
Usually a 22-year-old lacking upside would not be an attractive first-rounder, but the teams at the end of the first really need a high-end, switchy defender like this. Thybulle’s age turns into a positive since he’s ready to contribute now, and a late first that hits is one of the most valuable contracts in the league. Thybulle is the sort of versatile weapon it’s easy to find minutes for on a team like Toronto, Boston, or Houston in May. Don’t sleep on him.
STOCK DOWN: Keldon Johnson, Kentucky
I’ve kept Keldon Johnson around the bottom of my top-10 all season, but he’s starting to slide toward the back of the lottery and could fall further if some talent scouts are to be believed. Johnson was terrific early in the season against Duke and UNC. I have a bias toward UK guys, especially since so many seem to outperform their draft slot in the pros, but that great first impression and UK history were blinding me a bit from some of Keldon’s flaws.
The truth is that, even though I watch as much Kentucky basketball as any team, I just don’t end up taking a lot of notes on Johnson. He has flashes and moments but too often feels like the fourth best player on the Wildcats behind P.J. Washington, Tyler Herro, and Ashton Hagans in some order. I’ve been worried about Keldon’s athleticism for awhile now, and against Florida he got blocked three times at the rim. He feels a touch slow at times and seems to have poor hips. When Keldon flashes, you see this long, switchy wing that can play D, hit threes, and show up in big moments. But at 6'6 with a 6'9 wingspan, Johnson is too small to play the role his skill set is best for in the NBA. He doesn’t have the length to guard bigger wings and feels more like a 2/3 combo than a 3/4 at the next level, where his offense fits best.
Johnson still has these moments that make me fall for him all over again, and he appears to be the heart and soul of the team and will make the big flash play and yell passionately to fire up his team. In some ways, Keldon reminds me of Kent Bazemore, a perfectly nice NBA player who’s carved out a solid career. I can see Johnson filling a similar role as a replacement-level two, certainly valuable enough on any team but not the sort of upside most teams want in the lottery if you’re drafting a guy to be your fourth or fifth starter.
STOCK UP: Jontay Porter, Missouri
Porter is out all season with a torn ACL and MCL, so it’s not like he’s done anything to raise his stock recently — I just finally had time to study his tape. Jontay has a special basketball IQ and feel for the game, especially considering he was barely 18 in the footage I saw after reclassifying to play with older brother Michael last year. Despite missing a full year to injury, Porter will still be one of the younger players in the draft.
I had so much fun watching Porter move the ball on offense and talk to his teammates on D. He has a transcendent feel for the game and will easily be the best passing big man in the draft. Porter is most impressive as a pivot, making quick decisions and getting the ball to teammates in valuable spots. His passes hit guys right where they want it, and he has vision most bigs don’t and can pass along the perimeter or in the post. Porter makes quick decisions with the ball and makes the game easier for his teammates.
Jontay looks comfortable shooting and hit 36% of his 40 threes and 75% of his 104 free throws, an admittedly small sample, but the shot passes the eye test and he has solid range. He also sets good solid screens, and his ability to set a solid screen combined with his shooting and passing make him a nightmare in the pick-and-roll since he can hit the open J, slip to the rim, or put the ball on the floor like Draymond and create a play for a teammate. Porter is always moving on offense and makes himself available for the ball. He’ll be be a very tough guard for traditional bigs.
Jonaty isn’t a great athlete, so the defense feels worrisome at first, but he more than holds his own. He makes up for his lack of athleticism with positioning, constantly moving his feet and staying in front of the defender, flashing that hoops IQ. Jontay communicates well with his teammates (again, all the more impressive at his age), and he was in the 95th percentile protecting the rim. Porter has good hips that let him rotate well and should help immensely in pick-and-roll defense, and he’s a strong help defender. Jontay feels a tad slow to guard NBA fours and a tad small to guard true centers, but he also feels like a guy who fits well defending in the modern NBA. On many teams, his ability to switch and guard on the perimeter might be more valuable than someone like DeAndre Ayton blocking shots in the paint but getting lost outside of it.
Some of the talent scouts I’ve talked with compare Jontay Porter to a poor man’s Nikola Jokic as a passer and a spacer. Porter is a few inches smaller, and I’m not sure it’s fair to compare anyone to Jokic as a passer, but he also has a lot more promise as a defender. I like Al Horford as a better comparison. Horford was the popular comp for Wendell Carter Jr., but Carter is a better defender and will never match Horford offensively. Porter feels like a closer match. He’s a winning player who can be at the hub of a team’s offense and contribute in every area while being a versatile, plus defender.
There are some concerns, of course. Any big coming off a knee injury is worrisome, and Porter already looked out of shape last season and measured fat at the combine. He started only seven games and had some of his worst numbers as a starter, so are his stats padded against bench guys? The shot looks good and the results are solid so far, but with only only 40 three-point attempts in college, it’s tough to know for sure. Porter is a guy who can really help himself at the combine. I have him mid-lottery right now. He could play himself into the top few picks if he looks healthy and has used this time to get his body into shape, or he could slide if the body questions continue.
Still, if you compare a guy to Draymond Green, Nikola Jokic, and Al Horford at age 18, you’ve got a pretty special potential talent. Jontay Porter may never be a flashy superstar, but he’s the sort of winning building block that can help almost any team.
Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.
