10 Key Angles to Remember on an Anthony Davis Trade

Anthony Davis wants out, and it’s the biggest story in the NBA. But there are more wrinkles than you think.

Nothing warms up a cold, winter Monday morning like a good, old-fashioned Woj bomb. The NBA awoke this morning to news that Anthony Davis officially wants out of New Orleans. Here is the tweet that rocked the NBA world:

The availability of Anthony Davis has sent fans of 29 other teams to the Trade Machine. Everyone wants to get their hands on a 25-year-old superstar as talented as any big man in the world, and almost no asset in the league should be off the table.

But not everything is as it seems. Trades are difficult, and there are more angles than meet the eye. Davis may not necessarily be moved in the next week, he might not be moved for the package you expect, and it might not be in the best interest of the New Orleans Pelicans to move him now or this summer — or even at all.

Here are 10 little things you should keep in mind as you send your fake trades into the Trade Machine…

1. The Pelicans don’t have to make a move before the Trade Deadline on February 7. They actually have an entire year.

New Orleans has no need to make a panic move. They’ve known this was a possibility for a long time, just as much as the rest of us have. There are only two reasons for the Pelicans to make a trade right now. One is to end this saga and move on — that’s obviously a terrible reason. Two is that they feel they have the absolute best offer possible. And that’s super unlikely.

Everyone knows about Boston’s trade assets, but the Pelicans can’t get an offer from the Celtics right now because of an obscure rule that disallows Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis from playing on the same team under their current contracts. Irving’s contract ends July 1 so Boston can make an offer then. That’s at least one team that can’t make an offer, and there are other options that don’t have an avenue to make a great offer right now but might this summer. The Pelicans have little leverage and teams are bound to low ball a bit with blood in the water. They don’t have to move right now.

2. In fact, the Pelicans don’t have to trade Davis at all.

What’s a fair offer for one of the most valuable assets in professional basketball? There is no fair trade. New Orleans will almost certainly lose any deal; it’s just a matter of how badly they lose it.

But there’s one other option: just keeping Davis and letting things play out. New Orleans is six games out of the playoffs (and counting) but could still sneak in. And remember, Davis is signed through next year. The Pelicans could find that the best available offer is a package of decent young players or middling picks and wonder where that’s really going to get the franchise. Is it possible they’d rather just keep Davis for two more shots at the playoffs, then risk him walking for nothing? After all, two playoff runs is not nothing. Might one more playoff run with Davis and Jrue Holiday be a better outcome than whatever team they end up with after unloading Davis for assets? It’s possible.

3. The Celtics certainly appear to have the best trade assets, but that doesn’t mean they have the assets New Orleans wants.

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

It’s easy to get googly-eyed at Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and a war chest of draft picks, but what if the Pelicans don’t like the way Brown has regressed and have never really loved Tatum? What if they don’t want three or four middling picks and instead prefer a high one? What if they want picks sure to convey this year, not assets down the road? What if they just want the highest possible pick this year to increase their odds at landing Zion Williamson?

Just because we think the Celtics have the best trade assets doesn’t mean the Pelicans agree.

4. But the Celtics can definitely make the best offer, right? Well… that’s not necessarily true either.

Even if we agree the Celtics have the best trade assets available, that doesn’t necessarily mean the Celtics can make the best offer.

Boston can’t make a trade offer until the summer without trading Kyrie, and that ain’t happening. When Boston can finally make an offer, they are trading for one year of Davis. One playoffs with Davis. Every other team making an offer right now is trading for two potential playoff runs with Brow. That means other teams at least in theory should be willing to give up more right now than they’d give this summer.

(By the way, Danny Ainge absolutely should lie his butt off to the Pelicans right now. Tell them if they wait til June, they can have Tatum and Brown and Marcus Smart and all the picks. Tell the Pelicans anything you have to in order to make sure they wait until the summer to give you a shot. Just saying.)

The Lakers are an easy example. LeBron isn’t getting any younger, and they’re not even a playoff lock. With LeBron and Davis, they’re not only getting there but also a real threat to win it all. Wouldn’t you rather two bites of the apple than one? Wait til summer and you wasted this LeBron year. The Lakers should absolutely make their best offer right now. Sure, this summer they could theoretically trade for Davis and sign a third star, but trading for him now gets you an extra playoffs with him, and it also gets Davis for sure. It’s a no-brainer.

Did you have a higher opinion of Brandon Ingram last summer or now? The Lakers don’t have valuable picks, just young players. And the more those young guys play and the older they get, the more the Pelicans might not want them. Ingram’s trade value is dropping by the game. The Lakers and other teams have every incentive to trade for Davis now, not wait until the summer. Whatever the price is for teams to get Davis for a 2019 playoff run, they should make their best offer now.

5. The Pelicans may not want to hit the reset button.

There’s another distinct possibility. What if the Pelicans look at what small markets like San Antonio and Indiana did and try that path? Faced with trading Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, NBA fans begged both teams to tear it down and start from scratch. Instead they traded for the best available player and are pretty pleased with their results, both in the thick of the playoff race and still relevant. That matters to small-market teams.

What if the Pelicans don’t want young players and draft picks? Why would Pels GM Dell Demps want to start over when there’s no guarantee he’ll keep his job to see a reset through? What if the Pelicans just want the best player they can get? What if that’s someone like C.J. McCollum or Bradley Beal or Andrew Wiggins? What if the Pelicans prefer a quick-fix rebuild package of Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow, and Bam Adebayo?

A full reset doesn’t always work in a small market, and it’s probably not particularly appealing to a guy about to lose his job if this goes south. (By the way, there’s no way Demps should be overseeing this trade, but that’s its own column.) A Pelicans reset may sound great in a void, but it’s not so great if the fans stop showing up, the team bleeds money, and the franchise gets moved to Seattle in a few years. New Orleans isn’t exactly a booming franchise with a great history. Small markets have to operate differently.

6. All of that being said… BLOW IT UP FOR A SHOT AT ZION.

Now that we know Davis doesn’t plan to stick around, the Pelicans’ best non-Davis assets are their upcoming first-round draft picks. The Pelicans should trade Davis for the best assets they can get, but they should also start tanking hard to improve their draft slot as much as possible.

New Orleans is 22–28. They have no chance of finishing with a worse record than the Cavs (10 wins), Knicks (10), Bulls (11), or Suns (11). A complete tank might give them a shot to slide past the Hawks (15) and Grizzlies (20). That means the Pelicans have a realistic path to the fifth worst record in the league. New Orleans knows as well as anyone that the best path to a quality NBA team is one super-duper star.

The fifth worst team in the NBA has a 10.5% chance at Zion Williamson, the league’s next super-duper star. That’s only 3.5% worse odds than the worst team in basketball, thanks to the flattened lottery odds that conveniently kick in this season. There’s no better outcome for Davis-less New Orleans than lucking into Zion this summer. That’s a better asset than any group of players or picks anyone can offer.

If the Pelicans don’t tank, they probably finish with something like the eighth or ninth worst record and cut their Zion odds in half. None of the other teams with a high draft pick are giving it away for Davis, knowing he’d walk away next summer anyway. The good teams’ picks are too low. Even the Celtics’ draft picks can’t land at #1 thanks to pick protections. The only way the Pelicans can get Zion is by doing it themselves. They should tank hard, aiming for that fifth-worst record. It gives them a 42% chance at a top-four pick and a 10.5% at seeing Zion.

7. Tanking has another hidden benefit to the Pelicans.

Boston owns the Grizzlies first-round pick, but it’s top-8 protected this summer, top-6 protected in 2020, and unprotected after that. Every Pelicans pushes the Grizzlies one spot lower in the lottery and makes them that much closer to falling out of the top eight and losing their pick to Boston.

A pick that’s real and usable this summer is far more valuable to New Orleans than a hypothetical pick they have to wait a year or two for. It’s a small thing, just another tiny angle the Pelicans should consider.

8. Anthony Davis should never play for the Pelicans again.

Quibble if you want, but I’d never let him suit up again. The Pelicans aren’t making the playoffs this year, and Davis has been injury prone throughout his career. Every win going forward hurts the team, and every minute Davis plays is a minute he could have a catastrophic injury and kill his trade value.

If the Pelicans really truly believe they can make the playoffs and/or convince Brow to stay next summer, then fine, play it out. Otherwise Davis playing can only hurt the team both in the present and in the future.

8. The Pelicans should definitely trade their star right away… just not the one you think.

New Orleans has a barren roster and a weak war chest of assets. It’s pretty much just Davis, Holiday, and their picks. Trade Davis and the Pelicans are very unlikely to make the playoffs the next couple years in the loaded West. By the time they’re relevant again, Holiday’s contract will be ending, and he’ll either be ready for a better team or not worth the money he’s making.

Holiday is 28 and has not exactly been a beacon of health over his career. But he’s also averaging a career-high 21 points and 8 assists a game, he plays All-NBA defense, and he’s under contract three-and-a-half more seasons at the back end of his prime. On the right team, that’s be an extremely valuable asset. On the Pelicans, Holiday without Davis is a declining asset. His value only lessens without Davis around, and he isn’t going to want to stick around:

That’s why the Pelicans should be taking calls for Holiday right now, before they move Davis. The second they trade Davis, their Holiday leverage drops. The moment Davis is gone, they’re an NBA afterthought and Holiday can’t help the team. Holiday is a game-changer for the right team. If Davis isn’t actually available, Jrue Holiday might be the best trade deadline asset available. He’s healthier, cheaper, and three years younger than Mike Conley. Think of what a team like the Knicks or Suns might give up for Holiday.

The Pelicans could head into the summer with a top-5 pick and good assets or picks from a Holiday deal before even moving Davis. Play this right and that rebuild starts to rebuild itself in a hurry.

9. New Orleans can offer one other valuable asset in trade talks — it can take on bad salary.

The Pelicans have no player signed past next summer other than Holiday, not even a rookie contract past 2020 thanks to many trades. Next summer is a full reset if Davis leaves. And if Davis leaves this summer, the 2019–20 season is sunk before it even starts.

On the surface, you might think the Pelicans should try to get a team to eat a contract like Solomon Hill in a deal, but Hill’s deal is harmless once Davis is gone because the team will be bad anyway. Instead, the Pelicans can offer Davis (or Holiday) and the ability to take bad contracts back. Who cares if bad money rots on their roster next season in a rebuild year? Taking on bad money increases what teams are willing to give up, and it also increases the potential number of trade partners. Teams like the Knicks, Bucks, Heat, Blazers, Wizards, and others may pay more than ever if they can get one of the Pelicans’ stars and dump bad money at the same time.

10. Ultimately, whether we like it or not, Anthony Davis, Rich Paul, and Klutch Sports have all the control.

Davis took the first step telling the Pelicans he doesn’t plan to re-sign and asking for a trade. And make no mistake about this timing — this is a calculated move by Davis’s camp to get him to the Lakers. Davis knows the Celtics can’t make a deal right now, he knows LeBron is looking for another star, and he knows the Lakers probably have the best assets to make a deal outside of Boston. This announcement is meant to give the Lakers a ten-day window to make their best offer.

But that’s not the only step Davis can take. It’s one thing to say he wants out of New Orleans. That already takes away a lot of Pelicans leverage. But there’s a second move available. If Davis really wants to play in L.A. with LeBron, he can tell every team he’s planning to sign with the Lakers in the summer of 2021 when he’s a free agent.

That’s the last card Davis and Paul have to play, and it’s the ultimate trump card. If Davis says it’s Lakers or bust, every other team is no longer trading for a 25-year-old stud entering his prime, just a guy 17 months away from leaving. Talk about killing your trade value.

Take a look at the list of Klutch Sports clients currently under Rich Paul. At the top are Anthony Davis and LeBron James. Then there’s Ben Simmons, John Wall, and Eric Bledsoe, then names like Tristan Thompson, J.R. Smith, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Notice any themes? Other than Simmons and Wall, the other big names are past or present LeBron teammates.

Or maybe future ones.

Rich Paul takes care of his guys. If Brow wants to get to L.A., Paul will get him there. Bledsoe is a free agent this summer, started his career in L.A., and has had a career year next to a point forward. The Lakers would need a point guard to play with Brow and Bron. Tristan and J.R. will be available next year once they’re inevitably bought out. The Morris twins, also Klutch clients, are free agents this summer and want to play together. Bledsoe, KCP, J.R., Morris twins, LeBron, Tristan, and Davis? This team almost builds itself.

Who’s ready for LeBron v Warriors V? Better getcha popcorn.

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