NBA Draft stock watch — DeAndre Hunter up, Coby White down

Why DeAndre Hunter fits every NBA team and why Coby White may not fit any of them

As we enter the final weeks of conference play, NBA Draft stock is starting to come into focus. Zion Williamson remains the overwhelming number one pick, shredded shoe or not, but the real intrigue comes after that. We have only a few more chances to see these players against top-level college competition, so each game is more important than ever as we check in on NBA Draft stock around the league.

Today we’ll look at two outstanding ACC players, DeAndre Hunter of Virginia and Coby White of North Carolina. One of them looks like an outstanding professional player any NBA team can build around. The other may not be an NBA player at all. Hunter and White are our 11th and 12th prospect previews. Here’s what else we’ve seen so far:

• Feb 4: Matissy Thybulle and Jontay Porter stock up, Keldon Johnson and Kevin Porter Jr. stock down
• Feb 11: Isaiah Roby and Nickeil Alexander-Walker stock up, Iggy Brazdeikis and Naz Reid stock down
• Feb 18: Bruno Fernando stock up, Romeo Langford stock down

We’ll do this every week or so from now on, so check back again soon. Let’s dig into DeAndre Hunter and Coby White!

STOCK DOWN — Coby White, North Carolina

Coby White is easy to find and easier to root for. His hair makes him stand out on the court, and he’s a fun player who fights hard and plays with a high motor. White isn’t afraid to take the big shot and often comes up with a big play in a key moment. He’s what Dick Vitale would call a PTPer, a prime-time player. And he’s doing this all as a freshman starter under Roy Williams, not exactly a place many freshmen succeed. Just ask Nassir Little.

The problem is none of those things are NBA skills, and White’s list of weaknesses is much longer. He’s smallish, and his 6'4 wingspan gives him almost no hope for NBA defense, especially because he constantly loses his guy on that end. White is more quick than fast and doesn’t have great burst or an outstanding dribble. He’s a fine shooter but not a great one, and I would describe his finishing as “hopeful.” I just don’t see an elite skill here, and with his lack of size and elite athleticism, I’m not sure I see an NBA future.

I think Coby White might just be a really good college player. You can see the difference against outstanding competition. All his big scoring and shooting games have come against mediocre teams. But take a look at eight games White played against Michigan, Gonzaga, UK, Virginia, Duke, FSU, and Louisville (x2). In those games, White’s scoring drops from 17 to 10ppg, and his field-goal percentage plummets to 30%, including an abysmal 18% from three. White gets swallowed up by tough defensive guards like Tre Jones and Ashton Hagans, and those guys don’t even have a real size advantage. He has a negative assist-to-turnover ratio and just one steal in those eight games. Not great, Bob.

A lot of scouts seem to love White, and I’ve seen him near the lottery on some boards and a first rounder on most. I don’t buy it. White can’t dribble or get his shot off against high-end talent, and he’s a negative on defense. I genuinely enjoy watching Coby White play college basketball. I hope we get to watch him do it for another two or three seasons.

STOCK UP: DeAndre Hunter, Virginia

It’s easy to get bored with Virginia. Every year they pile up a ton of wins with stout defense and a vanilla offense. Every year they choke in March, most notably against 16-seed UMBC last spring. Watching Virginia can feel like watching paint dry. They play at the slowest pace in college basketball, hounding teams on defense and playing a slow, methodical offense.

And all of that might be hiding a top draft pick in plain sight.

DeAndre Hunter is ready to play in the NBA right now. He has broad shoulders and a wide frame, standing 6'8 with a 7'2 wingspan. Hunter plays tough, physical defense without fouling — 4+ fouls just thrice all season — and has successfully guarded a swath of uniqely talented players from Zion Williamson to Nickeil Alexander-Walker to R.J. Barrett. Hunter is smart and instinctive, always in the right place. He’s great defending on the ball, ranking 99th percentile in pick-and-roll D with an absurd 0.30 points allowed per possession, per Synergy, and in a team construct. Hunter is a hard-working team player that checks all the intangible boxes.

What about his offense? Though less obvious, check the numbers. Hunter’s averaging 15ppg on ridiculous 64% true shooting, including 79% from the line and 47% behind the arc. Hunter’s shot is a bit slow and still rounding into form, but he’s at least a plus shooter. The numbers are even more impressive when you consider Hunter is creating many of his own looks, often an elbow dribble pull-up that’s his bread and butter. Hunter has a slow, patient dribble. He’s not going to blow by anyone, but he’s not supposed to in that offense. Hunter is what he’s supposed to be: an efficiency machine. He’s matching the numbers he put up as a freshman reserve but doing it in starter minutes against better talent, with fewer fouls and better shooting.

So what are the drawbacks? Hunter is a redshirt sophomore who’ll be closer to 22 than 21 on draft day. He’s a fine NBA athlete but not a great one. Those things limit his upside, and the NBA is a star-driven league. Hunter’s shot is still improving, and his finishing needs work. He can be a tad slow in decision making and is a half-step slow laterally, so he may not stay in front of the quickest players at the next level. As good a defender as Hunter is, he barely averages one stock (steal plus block) per game, typically a red flag. There’s also a question of whether Hunter can really take over a game or play like a star. He appears to be just a role player.

Ah, but that’s exactly it. Not every team can draft Zion. Most draft picks will fill a role other than star, and we already know exactly what DeAndre Hunter will be in the NBA. He’s a prototypical 3-and-D wing, and he’s already filling that role for one of the best teams in college basketball. He ranks second in offensive win shares in the ACC and third in defense — basically behind only Zion. He’s averaging 2.3 stocks over his last six games, beginning to make more big plays on that end. And as for taking over? Hunter scored 21ppg in Virginia’s three biggest road tests against Duke, UNC, and Louisville, including shooting 69% from the field and leading a huge second-half comeback last week against the Cardinals.

Let’s compare Hunter to another presumed 3-and-D pick, Cam Reddish. They’re similar size and will fill a similar NBA role. But Hunter shoots 47% on threes versus 33% for Reddish, and he makes 56% inside the arc versus a terrible 39% for Cam. Hunter’s BPM is more than twice Reddish’s, and his defense is unquestionably better. Duke plays at a top-20 pace instead of the slowest, so compare the two per 100 possessions. Hunter is at 32 points and 11 rebounds. Reddish is far behind at 26 and 7. Reddish is a year and a half younger. Other than that, what’s your argument for him over Hunter? Is he really going to close all those gaps over the next 1.5 years?

Maybe Hunter is a role player already being maximized on a good team, or maybe his efficiency in a small role portends a bigger role in the future. Hunter will be an efficient third or fourth option in an NBA offense, and he’ll be at least their second best defender, possibly first. There are two college basketball players that could walk onto any NBA team in the league and play immediate minutes this summer. The other one is Zion.

Hunter may not be an NBA star. But from a team-building perspective, you’ll scarcely find an easier player to build around (shouts Cole Zwicker). Maybe the concept of stars and role players is outdated. Maybe teams just need winning players.

DeAndre Hunter will make some NBA team better. Perhaps it will be yours.

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