Would Any NBA Player Be Worth 10 Years and $300 Million?

The San Diego Padres broke the bank for Manny Machado. Would any NBA team dare do the same for one of their stars?

The San Diego Padres broke the internet Tuesday with news they had signed Manny Machado to a mammoth 10-year $300-million contract, every penny of which is guaranteed. That’s a lot of dollars and a lot of years, and it’s a contract that’s not even legal in the NBA. Basketball players can only dream of a contract that long or anywhere near that amount of cash. Players like Steph Curry, Russell Westbrook, and LeBron James signed mega-deals last summer and still secured barely half that amount of money.

Social media was ablaze yesterday thinking about $300 million contracts, so it got me thinking. NBA teams can’t actually offer someone a deal for 10 years or $300 million a season… but what if they could?

Would any team actually want to make that sort of an offer? What player or players might be worth it?

First, some key math to consider…

Let’s make one thing clear. I’m not a baseball salary cap expert, nor even an NBA one with how complicated things are, but I understand enough about cap rules and contracts to give us a good estimate. The numbers below are not exact and should not be taken as gospel, and we can really only estimate at this point anyway. The idea is to get us close. And oh yes, there will be math.

Manny Machado signed for 10 years and $300 million. We’re going to assume an NBA team agreeing to a similar deal would do so at a flat contract, so 10 years at exactly $30 million a year.

One thing that won’t be flat? The NBA salary cap. The cap changes every season, and it’s growing pretty rapidly of late. The cap this season is about $102 million. The NBA expects the cap to rise to $109 million next season, then $118 million for the 2020–21 season. Those numbers are not locked in but should be close. The cap will continue to rise from there, typically around 5% per season. Per Real GM, the salary cap could break $150 million by the 2025–26 season and might be as high as $175 million by 2028–29, which would be the final year of this hypothetical 10-year deal.

So what does that matter? It matters immensely, because locking in a star for 10 years is all about finding value at the end of that contract. Next season, a $30 million deal is worth 27.5% of a team’s salary cap. By a decade from now, that same $30 million deal might take up only around 17% of the cap. That’s a huge difference, because the salary cap is a zero-sum game and there’s only so much money to go around. Under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, max players can start as high as 35% of the salary cap. By 2028–29, that could mean a max salary of over $60 million a year, more than double the current Machado deal. That obviously presents a huge margin for savings. But will any current player be worth that a decade from now?

One more key note to remember — we’ll assume the 10-year $300-million deal replaces any existing contract this summer, rather than extending it.

I figured the easiest way to do this was to go through the teams in alphabetical order and consider the player from each team that makes the most sense. So let’s take a look. And don’t think for a second we’re done with the math.

Up first… Atlanta and Trae Young

We’ll start with the Atlanta Hawks and star rookie point guard Trae Young. Young is 20 right now, so a decade-long contract would lock him up from age 21 to 30, pretty much the entirety of his prime. That’s certainly enticing.

Young is under contract for three more years at around $21 million. With this new deal, those same three years would cost $90 million. Ouch. A huge part of the value of a young player is the cheap contract, and we just cost ourselves $69 million the next three years. Definitely not nice.

Assuming Young is as good as everyone hopes, he gets a max contract starting in the summer of 2023. Max contracts start at 25, 30, or 35% of the cap, depending on length of service in the NBA. Young’s max contract in 2023 looks like it could be something like five years for $179 million. Another max deal beginning in 2028 would pay Young around $50 million each of those next two years, the final two years in this 10-year window. All together, we end up paying Trae Young… almost exactly $300 million for this upcoming 10-year window.

Now, again, those numbers are estimates. We might also end up paying Trae Young a lot more if he makes an All-NBA Team and is eligible for a designated player extension, and he’d make a little more if he stays with the same team that whole time with the full eligible raises. But for the most part, we’d end up paying Trae about the same contract with upcoming deals.

So do you offer that deal? Well, do you think Trae Young is a definite max player? He’s probably not yet. Even if you really, really like him, he’s not a definite max player, so locking him up for 10 years with that assumption and very little to save long term is probably not worth that risk. What if Young isn’t max-worthy? Maybe his next contract ends up more like 5-years $100-million instead and now the Machado deal looks very bad. We just don’t know enough yet about Trae Young to offer him the Machado. But… it’s not crazy.

What about Boston and Jayson Tatum?

Jayson Tatum is a pretty similar case to Young. We’d also get Tatum for ages 21 to 30, locking up his entire prime. Tatum has only two years left on his rookie deal after this summer. That’s one less than Trae Young, so we aren’t sacrificing as much on rookie-deal savings. We also have a lot more reason to believe that Jayson Tatum is a max player. We have 100+ games of NBA data plus a pretty great playoff run, and there’s every reason to believe Tatum is a definite max player in a couple years. He also looks like a player with a path to an All-NBA team, which could make him eligible for the designated extension and even more money.

The math for Trae Young was almost even. For Tatum, we end up saving a bit of money giving him the Machado deal instead of max contracts over the next decade, and maybe a lot if he ends up All-NBA.

Of course, this isn’t being done in a vacuum. The Celtics are up against the cap right now and need to save money for Kyrie Irving and, they hope, Anthony Davis this summer. Right now, keeping Tatum at his $7.8 million price tag next season has huge benefits to Boston, enough that they might not want to offer the Machado.

If Tatum gets traded to New Orleans, you better believe he’s getting that 10-year Machado deal. And even if he stays in Boston, they’re giving it a long, hard look.

Up next… Brooklyn. Pass, right?

The Brooklyn Nets don’t have a surefire star, so it would be easy to pass them on by in this exercise. But they do have a 22-year-old newly-minted All Star who will be a free agent this summer in D’Angelo Russell.

Will Russell get a max deal this summer to stay in Brooklyn? If he does, that deal will end up around five years for $150 million. That’s almost exactly the first half of the Machado deal, right around $30 million per season.

If you’re paying attention, you’ll remember the salary cap is continuing to rise. Would Russell be worth more or less than $150 million in the second set of five years? He would be 28 years old when he’s able to sign that next deal, typically an age when a player is about at their peak. If Russell is a max player now, wouldn’t he be a max player at age 28? Because if he is, he’s getting more than $150 million those next five years, and you should offer him the Machado deal this summer.

Does that seem absolutely crazy to you? It does to me. But that’s because I wouldn’t give Russell the max this summer, not even close, and I wouldn’t have put him in the All-Star Game either.

But if you think D’Angelo Russell is a max guy this summer already? It’s not as crazy as you think.

What about an older veteran like James Harden?

Okay let’s skip ahead a little bit. If we’re considering offering Jayson Tatum and D’Angelo Russell the Machado extension, it’s clearly going to make sense for some players. What about someone at the other end of their career, a player already in their prime heading in the wrong direction?

James Harden is under contract the next four years for $171 million for his age 30 to 33 seasons. You obviously want that deal. The Machado deal pays him only $120 million these next four years, so we’re saving $51 million there and also getting some valuable cap room we might be able to use to get Harden some help.

Now Harden is age 34 and out of contract after this contract goes away. We don’t have a crystal ball. But the way NBA players age now, it’s reasonable to expect that Harden might get one more max deal or something close to it. Why is it reasonable? Because Harden’s teammate Chris Paul just got that deal a summer ago at age 33, as did LeBron James. A max Harden contract starting at age 34 is something like four years for $206 million. Add that to the deal we currently owe Harden, and that’s already $377 million owed Harden over the next eight years, plus anything we feel like paying Harden at age 38 or 39.

If we give Harden the Machado deal, we’re almost certainly going to get negative value over the final few years of the deal. But these next six or seven years we get an MVP at $30 million instead of the $47 million he’ll make at the end of the actual contract he’s on, and that number will only keep going up unless Harden’s game doesn’t hold up. An NBA team would eat those final lost years for such a good player up front. Harden gets the deal.

Okay. Let’s lock in some other Machado deals…

We’ve now given the Machado extension to James Harden and Jayson Tatum, and we think Trae Young and D’Angelo Russell would at least have a conversation. If that’s the case, some of these other names a quick and easy yes.

Giannis Antetokounmpo

The Greek Freak has two years and $53 million remaining, so we’ll lose $6.6 million the next two years with a Machado deal. After that, do we want Giannis Antetokounmpo on a max extension for his ages 27 to 34 seasons? Yes. Yes, we do. And every one of them will pay him more than $30 million a year, perhaps as much as double toward the end of the contract.

Make no mistake about it: every NBA team would leap at the chance to offer Giannis Antetokounmpo a 10-year $300-million contract. They’d probably give him that money for eight years, too. Maybe even seven or six. And he’d be worth it.

Anthony Davis

Davis has one year left on his deal before a player option he obviously won’t use. That means we lose $3 million once next season on Brow’s $27-million contract, and then it’s in our favor moving forward. Do we want Anthony Davis under a max deal for his age 27 to 35 seasons? Yeah, we do. The niggling injuries could catch up by the end of that, but there’s no doubt we’d love to find out for ourselves.

Karl-Anthony Towns

Towns already signed a five-year max extension that kicks in this summer. It will total about $150 million, which obviously equals half of the Machado extension. Will KAT be worth another $150 million for his age 29 to 33 seasons? That’s less than a max contract and, since it’s beginning in his prime, it’s almost certainly less than he’ll end up getting. Plus, Towns has a decent shot of making All-NBA this year, which would escalate that $150-million extension and push this even further in our favor. Minnesota would love to offer Towns the Machado deal.

Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons

Embiid is owed $122 million the next four years, and barring further injury problems, he’d be likely to get another max deal at age 29 when that deal runs out. That’s something around $189 million for four more years, so now we’re up to eight years and have already passed the $300-million mark.

Ben Simmons has one rookie-deal year left at $8.1 million, so we’ll lose a little money this first year. But we’ll also lock Simmons in for his age 23 to 32 seasons, which is a little safer bet than Embiid at ages 25 to 34, especially given his injury history. Because of the first year, we’re losing a little money on Simmons still after five years, but then it tilts in our favor after that — and maybe sooner if he makes an All-NBA team and gets the designated extension.

The Sixers are happy to offer both Embiid and Simmons the Machado deal. And they’re actually even happier to offer it to both together. Two superstars locked in for $60 million a season for the next decade? Remember, the projected salary cap five years from now is around $137 million. So in 2024 we’ll have 29-year-old Embiid and 27-year-old Simmons both in their primes, plus $77 million to spend on guys around them? Yes, please.

Luka Doncic

The math here is basically the same as Trae Young, except Doncic is better right now. He’s clearly an impending max player, and he’ll have a pretty decent shot at a designated max extension too. Would you be willing to guarantee 10 years of max contracts right now today to Luka Doncic? Sure, of course you would. Easy decision.

What about the Warriors guys?

Stephen Curry is under contract three more years for $129 million, and we obviously want those three years. The Machado deal saves us $39 milllion there. Now Curry is 34. Are you giving him the max? Some NBA team will. Curry may be small but that shot isn’t going anywhere soon, and he should age like fine wine. Curry’s new four-year deal is somewhere around $200 million, so we just saved another $80 million with the Machado deal. Do we want Curry at ages 38 to 40? Maybe not, and surely not for $30 million a year, but we already got our $300 million worth so we can eat those final few years.

Durant will get get any offer he wants this summer when he’s a free agent. Let’s give him a four-year max for around $164 million. At age 35, Durant is probably still getting another max deal if he wants it, and those four years will cost north of $200 million. Again, we’re well past our $300 million of value even before the final years, so we’ll take the deal. You better believe the Knicks, Clippers, or 28 other teams would leap at the chance to offer the Machado deal to Kevin Durant this summer.

All the better if it’s the Warriors offering both Curry and Durant the extension. Why not lock them up? In fact, if they did, they might even give Klay Thompson the Machado too. He’s obviously not at the level of the other two, but would the Warriors like to lock Steph, KD, and Klay in for $90 million and ride with them for a decade? Remember, five years from now that leaves them still over $45 million in cap room to add to the team. Heck, maybe they’d lock Draymond Green up, too.

Okay, let’s wrap this thing up.

We can only offer pretend future contracts to so many players before the exercise gets boring.

Kawhi Leonard gets the Machado deal. Damian Lillard probably gets it. I’d vote no for someone like Jaren Jackson or De’Aaron Fox, but they’d get considered. Utah might double dip with Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell. Oklahoma City would probably do the same with Russell Westbrook and Paul George, though that one’s more tenuous. Phoenix would likely leap at the chance to lock Devin Booker and DeAndre Ayton in. I wouldn’t give the deal to the Suns guys, and probably not to the Thunder, but they’re in the conversation. Nikola Jokic and Kristaps Porzingis would get to sit down and talk.

You can argue that some team might even swallow hard and offer LeBron James the Machado deal if it’s what they had to do to get him to sign the dotted line. You don’t think the Lakers would’ve offered LeBron $300 million last summer if that’s what it took? A Machado deal now would lock Lebron in for his ages 35 to 44 season and would almost certainly end up a disaster sooner than later, but also LeBron is a machine and maybe he’ll still be playing in a decade for all we know.

Add it all up, and we’re already at 15 or 20 NBA players that would get the Manny Machado extension of 10 years for $300 million. And those are just the ones that make sense. Who’s to stop the New York Knicks from offering Kemba Walker and Boogie Cousins $300 million each this summer? Desperate times call for desperate measures.

You know, there’s at least one other player NBA teams would bend over backwards to offer a $300-million deal to… and his name is Zion Williamson.

You know how we call it the NBA lottery? Turns out it’s an actual lottery. Some lucky NBA team is literally going to win a $300-million asset because some ping pong balls bounced their way in May. Absolutely ludicrous. And $300 million is putting it lightly. How much would your team pay to lock up Zion for the next 10 years? The answer is certainly north of $400 million and probably closer to $500 million, even in a salary cap world.

So while everyone else grumbles about the ridiculous baseball world where Manny Machado gets a $300-million contract, NBA fans can rest easy. At least Manny got to choose where he wanted to play. The NBA will hold a half-a-billion-dollar lottery in three months to figure out where its next superstar will play. Maybe that Manny Machado money isn’t so crazy after all.

Thanks to Keith P. Smith for help with salary numbers along with Jeff Siegel, Real GM, and elsewhere. And again, the numbers above are much more estimation than science, just enough to get us close enough to take a look at things. I’m certain there’s a mistake somewhere in the numbers above; apologies in advance.

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