The Western Conference Second-Team NBA All-Stars
The West is so loaded we need a whole Second Team. Luka and Fox are in. What about Tobias, DeRozan, Murray, or Booker?
NBA All-Star Weekend is finally here, and the league’s All-Star rosters are locked and loaded. Every February we pick 12 stars from the East and 12 more from the West, then argue most of All-Star Weekend about the guys we left out. So why not just include those snubs in on the fun? At the end of the season, we pick First, Second, and Third-Team NBA. Why not select some Second-Team NBA All-Stars too?
I picked my own East and West All-Stars, but we’re starting with the official All-Star rosters here. Assuming those 24 players are off the board, who should form the Second-Team All-Stars? We’ll follow all the usual rules, which means picking a full starting five and a balanced 12-man roster. We started with the East Second-Team, where we were scraping the bottom of the barrel, but the West is so deep even a Second-Team NBA All-Star roster will leave out some surprising snubs. Let’s see how it all shakes out…
The Second-Team Starters
Four of these picks could not be more obvious. The fifth may be a bit more controversial, but the forward pool out West is not as deep as you think.
C Rudy Gobert, Utah
It’s not hyperbole to say that Rudy Gobert is one of the most egregious All-Star omissions in NBA history. Gobert has the highest win share rate of any non-All-Star ever, and look at the other names surrounding him atop the list: CP3, Admiral, Kareem, Shaq, and Mailman are the only guys even close, and almost all of them missed the ASG because of early-season injuries. Gobert’s played every game. He leads the NBA in FG%, true shooting, and DBPM. He’s third in win shares with a 133-to-100 ortg-drtg differential. Rudy Gobert is by far the best player on something like the seventh best team in the league. How is this man not an All-Star? I would’ve cried, too.
F Luka Doncic, Dallas
Gobert and Doncic were my final two West All-Star picks, so they’re obvious choices. Luka Doncic is so good. He’s putting up 21 points, 7 boards, and 5 assists as a rookie with efficient shooting and reasonable turnover numbers and, darn it, I want to watch him in an All-Star Game.
G Jrue Holiday, New Orleans
Holiday beats those numbers, and for all the talk about his injury history, he’s somehow leading the entire NBA in minutes. His shooting numbers are rough but it’s hard to argue with a 21/5/8 line that would get you onto an All-Star team just about any other year.
G Mike Conley, Memphis
I’ll be darned if I’m leaving Conley off the make-believe All-Stars, too. Conley’s playing at a slow pace but basically producing the same as ever. It’s a real shame he didn’t get traded to a team that matters at the break. We need more meaningful Mike Conley minutes in our lives. We deserve playoff Conley.
F Draymond Green, Golden State
This has not been Draymond’s finest season. His shot has disappeared, a putrid 24% three at last check, and he’s scoring seven points a game, so few I had to use the word instead of the numeral. What kind of All-Star has sub-50% true shooting in 2019? The heart and soul of the most talented team assembled in NBA history, that’s who. I don’t care that Green ranks 245th in the NBA in PPG behind Michael Beasley and Stanley Johnson, or that he’s dead last among guys playing 30 minutes a game. Draymond leads the Warriors in rebounds, assists, and steals, and he leads them in the locker room, too. The only players in history to average 7 dimes, 7 boards, 1.5 steals, and a block are Draymond Green and LeBron James. Appreciate this man.
Three Reserve Locks
We have to be a lot pickier in the West, where there are so many deserving choices for even a second set of All-Stars. These three guys were always making my team.
G De’Aaron Fox, Sacramento
Fox doesn’t quite have the numbers to match the guards above, but that’s no knock on the second-year breakout player at the heart of a shock playoff contender in Sacramento. Holiday, Doncic, and Conley are legit All-Star picks almost any year. Fox isn’t quite there yet, but he’s got pretty good numbers and is shooting more and more confidently by the day. He’s well on his way.
C Steven Adams, Oklahoma City
My argument for Adams is easy: watch him. He’s as good a rebounder as there is in the NBA, he sets nasty screens, and he’s an awesome defender and tries hard on every play. You can’t ask for much more in a center.
C Marc Gasol, Memphis
Toronto fans will be happy to know Gasol still falls into this range. Memphis plays at a glacial pace, but Gasol’s rebounding and assist rates are the best of his career despite a drop in scoring and a slip on the defensive end. He’s still excellent in the post on both ends, and at 16 points, 9 boards, and 5 assists, he can contribute in a lot of areas. He makes the Raptors better.
Not the Guy You Expected from 3 Western Teams
It’s time for three controversial picks. These three are Second-Team All-Stars in place of teammates with gaudier scoring numbers, and all for similar reasons. One, the West is really good and we only have 12 more spots. And two, taking a lot of shots and scoring 20 PPG does not make you an All-Star or even the most important on your team. Here, let me show you how this works.
F Paul Millsap, Denver
You figure a team as good as the Nuggets must surely deserve a second player, and Jamal Murray is most people’s choice by default. He’s Denver’s second leading scorer and an exciting young player, but he’s still too inconsistent and shoots too many twos and not enough threes or free throws. Murray is performing about the same as last year, just doing it on a better team. He’s the fourth best Nugget most nights when the starters are healthy.
Millsap is still the more valuable player for now. Like Al Horford, he’s down to 26 minutes a game and has missed some time, but his per-possession numbers are still pretty near his usual career pace. Millsap’s 57% true shooting is his best since Utah, and it’s no coincidence Denver has magically learned how to play defense now that he’s healthy. He leads the Nuggets with a +9.3 on-court rating and a +8.4 on/off. Looks like Millsap is back to being one of the most underrated players in the league again.
And while we’re here, add Nikola Jokic to that list. Denver barely even has a deserving Second-Team All-Star next to Jokic, and yet he’s carried them to the top of the West almost all season despite all the Nuggets injuries. Everyone’s talking about Paul George for MVP lately, but Jokic should be getting a lot more buzz for what he’s doing.
G Lou Williams, Los Angeles Clippers
Yes, instead of Tobias Harris or Danilo Gallinari. Let’s talk this out. It feels like the Clippers should have some sort of star player because they’re better than expected and we’re conditioned to believe that’s because of a star stepping up. But that’s not always the case. The Clippers starters are fine, but watch any Clips game and it’s immediately obvious that their bench is what makes them tick. It’s Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell (and occasionally Boban, RIP). The numbers bear it out. The starters hold down the fort, while the bench guys all have the huge on/off numbers.
Harris led the team in scoring, so we assume he’s the star. He’s scoring 21ppg, but other than that, how is he anything other than his usual self? Once his 44% three regresses back to his non-Clippers 33% average, Harris will be the same player he’s been awhile now — an efficient scorer that does a lot of things well who will look great as a fourth banana before he gets paid way too much money this summer because Philly gave up three times too much for him. Gallinari is having the better season, compared to their careers. Gallo’s scoring and rebounding per 36 are up, and his three is even better at 45%. He’s having more of a career year than Harris.
But it’s the bench unit that blows teams away, and Lou Williams is the leader of that unit. His scoring, rebounding, and assists per 36 are all career-highs somehow at age 32. He’s scoring 20ppg slashing 44/37/90, about the same as the other two, but he leads the team with +8.7 on/off and since his unit is the heart and soul of the Clips, he gets the spot. Last night Sweet Lou put up 30 and 10 in just 22 minutes, four fewer than anyone else in NBA history. Watch L.A. not free fall out of the playoffs without Harris, as expected. You’ll see.
C Jusuf Nurkic, Portland
I’ve never been a Nurkic fan. He feels like a plodder from another era, a good defender in the right situation but a massive negative and turnover machine on the other end. Nurk signed a four-year extension this summer at $11 million a season. I scoffed at it at the time but it now looks like downright larceny. Like Marcus Smart, Nurkic is a positive on offense now, and that changes everything. He’s got a career-high at every stat on both ends, and he’s drawing and making many more freebies. Nurkic leads the Blazers at +8.6 on the court and +13.9 on/off. He’s absolutely their second best player this season and should be in the Most Improved Player conversation.
McCollum is one of a handful of scoring two guards that will sit this one out as maybe the most overrated archetype in the NBA. Scoring can be good, but it can also be the product of volume as much as efficiency or talent. There are 450 players in the NBA. Quite a few could score 20ppg on the right team if they took enough shots. But how do those guys affect the game outside of shooting and scoring? Do they rebound or create or defend? McColllum is one such player. We treat McCollum like a star because he scores 21ppg and gets paid like one and because he has a star personality, but his shooting numbers are good-not-great, and what else does he contribute? Nurkic contributes more to Portland’s winning ways on a night-to-night basis.
A Few Other Also-Rans
We’ve just ruled out Jamal Murray, Tobias Harris, Danilo Gallinari, and C.J. McCollum from our Second-Team All-Stars. The West is loaded, the competition is stiff, and we have only one spot left. Let’s run through another few names that also came up short.
I’d have given Buddy Hield a spot over McCollum. He’s quietly putting up a monster season with 50/45/86 shooting leaving him a few free throws short of joining a pretty incredible club. He’s seen his scoring and shooting increase despite moving to starter status and playing in games that actually matter, and his 61% true shooting speak for itself. He’s another Most Improved candidate — must have been that age 25 leap.
But Buddy is out, and so is DeMar DeRozan. DeRozan looks like a star but he’s not producing like one, and the Spurs are winning with coaching, defense, and bench play, none of which DDR contributes to. His free throw rate is down and he’s stopped shooting threes entirely (just seven all season!), which have combined to choke off his true shooting to just 52%. The improved assist rate helps, and 22/6/6 certainly looks like an All-Star, but DeRozan and McCollum are volume plays that do pretty much the same thing as guys like Zach LaVine or good Andrew Wiggins, they just do it in better team situations so we give them more credit.
As I write that, I must make one somber addition to the also-rans list. Donovan Mitchell was among my initial picks, but I can’t make a strong enough case that he stands out from the rest of those guys as an inefficient scoring two that doesn’t contribute a ton if the shot isn’t falling. It was falling in January when Spida put up 28/4/5, but October, November, and December count too, and he had 20/3/3 with a 29% three in that stretch. Mitchell looks and feels like an All-Star, but if DeRozan and McCollum aren’t deserving, he probably isn’t yet either.
Robert Covington might have a case but he’s played only 22 games for the Wolves. DeAndre Ayton has numbers that match some of our All-Stars but needs to play both ends. Nikola Mirotic, Julius Randle, and Derrick Rose could make a case in the East, but not in the loaded West.
Chris Paul is not an All-Star, not this year. Teammate Clint Capela is a tougher omission at 18 and 13 with three stocks a game, 64% true shooting, and a sparkling 131-to-110 ortg-drtg differential. The numbers measure up to Gobert, but on a much worse defense and with a lot more help offensively. Add in the missed games and the fact that only the Lakers, Clippers, Kings, and Mavs definitely have a worse starting center in the West — go ahead and fact check that, I’ll wait — and we’re just too deep at center. When the All-Star music stops, we won’t have a Capela.
The Final Roster Spot
G Devin Booker, Phoenix
Devin Booker left me with an impossible choice. Do I leave him off the Second-Team All-Stars and sic an entire legion of Booker stans on myself? Or do I admit he might actually be good for the first time ever and include him on my team? In the end, I chose the lose-lose option by making him my final pick, assuring neither side will be happy.
Booker fits in similar mold to guys like DeRozan, Mitchell, Hield, and McCollum, and it’s not like his production is affecting real NBA games. The Suns are 8–35 with Booker, a terrible 16-win pace. In their 15 games without him, they’re 3–12… a 16-win pace. Perfect.
But there are two things I realized. First, replace Booker with someone like Conley or Holiday. Are the Suns any better than 11–47? Not much. One star player can’t save a terrible team. And second, Booker is just producing more than his competition. His 25 points a night are both volume and efficiency at 57% true shooting, and he’s nearly doubled his assist rate from two years ago with barely an uptick in turnover rate. Only LeBron and Harden can match Booker’s 25 and 7 each night. At some point, production is production.
So Booker gets the final spot and leaves an impressive all-Second-Team snub squad of Jamal Murray, DeMar DeRozan, Tobias Harris, Danilo Gallinari, and Clint Capela, because the West is just that loaded.
Alas. Maybe they’ll make the Third-Team All-Stars…
The Western Conference NBA Second-Team All-Stars
G Mike Conley G Jrue Holiday F Luka Doncic F Draymond Green C Rudy Gobert
BENCH: De’Aaron Fox, Steven Adams, Marc Gasol, Paul Millsap, Lou Williams, Jusuf Nurkic, Devin Booker
Thanks for reading! Be sure to check out the Eastern Conference Second-Team NBA All-Stars if you missed it!
Stats are updated through February 13, thanks to Basketball Reference. Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.
