Who Should Make the NBA Western Conference All-Star Team?

22 players battle for 2 final spots, and why the Dallas Mavericks deserve not one but TWO All-Stars.

We’re only a couple weeks from the NBA All-Star Game, and we’re just a week away from the first televised All-Star draft. The NBA already announced the ten starters as chosen by the fans, coaches, and players, and we already did our Eastern team last week. The West is much deeper. In some ways that makes it easier, with as many as eight to ten absolute locks for the All-Star team. In other ways it’s harder — I legitimately considered 22 players for the final two spots on my West roster.

Let’s see what we can learn about the surefire All-Stars, then run through the West talent to fill in the back end of the roster. We’ll start with a team captain and five starters, then on down the list for 12 starters, three coaches, and a surprising bonus pick at the end. Here’s the East, if you missed it:

West captain

The West is more loaded than ever, but there’s one guy out in front of the pack.

G James Harden, Houston

We really need to appreciate what James Harden is doing more. Let’s just run though some numbers from Basketball Reference.

• Harden’s averaging 36.3ppg. That’s eighth highest in NBA history behind only Wilt, Elgin, and MJ, and Harden has a legit shot of passing Elgin and MJ by season’s end.
• Steph Curry and Anthony Davis are second in the NBA at 29.3ppg, which would lead the league in many seasons. Harden is scoring 24% more per game. If some other hypothetical player was scoring 24% more than Harden, that player would be putting up 45ppg.
• Harden averaged 36ppg in December… then increased that by seven points a game in January! He finished the month at 43.6ppg with nine boards and eight assists, a record 62 points created per game.
• Harden’s offensive box plus-minus of 11.3 is the second highest in NBA history behind only Stephen Curry’s 2015–16 season regarded by some as the best offensive season in history.
• Only Curry and Harden have ever attempted more than nine threes a game. Harden is attempting 13.3! Only six players have ever attempted 12 free throws a game. Harden’s doing that, too.
• Harden’s 41% usage is second highest in league history. He’s taken 14% more field goals and 39% more three-point attempts than anyone else, made 48% more free throws than everyone but Joel Embiid, and rates 35% more valuable (VORP) than the next most valuable players, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic.
• Oh and in case you’re wondering, Harden still ranks second in the league in assist rate, and his 62% true shooting is the highest of his career.
• The following graphic shows Harden’s year alongside Michael Jordan’s greatest offensive season ever. Draw your own conclusions:

The Other Western Starters

The East has only four real All-Star starters (sorry Kemba). The West has seven. These are the next four most deserving in order.

C Nikola Jokic, Denver

Jokic is the best player on a team with one star that’s sat atop the West most of the season despite an endless string of injuries to Gary Harris, Paul Millsap, Will Barton, and Isaiah Thomas. Jokic is averaging 20 points, 10 boards, and 8 assists a game, and he’s doing it at the third slowest pace in the league! Flip him to the third fastest pace and maybe we’d be talking about him a 24/12/10 line more. Per 100 possessions, Jokic 32/16/12 is beating Westbrook’s production and matching Towns’s scoring and rebounding while adding 19 points assisted. Jokic is having an unprecedented season. It’s time we noticed.

C Anthony Davis, New Orleans

We’ve talked enough about Davis this week, but lost in all the trade conversation is the fact that Brow is better than ever. He’s almost doubled his career-best assist total with a career-high in rebounds and free throws plus 4.3 stocks per game and one three per game for the first time. How much is too much to give up for a player like that? The limit does not exist.

G Steph Curry, Golden State

So, about that Curry 2015–16 season some regard as the best offensive season ever… he’s basically matching it. He’s shooting 50/45/93 en route to a club of his own, and his 67% true shooting leads the league despite the fact that it’s only best in his own career. The Warriors are 5–6 without Curry, including 1–6 against teams over .500. With him in the lineup, they’re at a 65-win pace like always. Despite all the heroics by Harden, Jokic, and Greek Freak, the only thing keeping Curry out of the MVP lead is the 11 games missed.

F Kevin Durant, Golden State

This is the only starter spot up for debate, because the four guys before KD are surefire locks. Durant ranks over LeBron because LBJ has missed a third of the season while KD has played every game. He gets the nod over PG because he’s just better. Despite PG’s career year, Durant leads him in almost every statistic while shooting more efficiently. He’s a boring choice here, but so be it.

3 More Stone Cold Western Locks

These three should be All-Star starters most years, and they’re such locks to make this year’s team that if you try to debate otherwise, I can’t take you seriously as a basketball analyst.

F LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers

LeBron has missed 17 games, a third of the Lakers season. The Lakers are 6–11 without him and 20–14 with him, the difference of a 29-win pace versus 48 wins with him. James has been more superhero than god this season. He’s playing the fewest minutes of his career, and most of his advanced metrics are down five or 10%. We’re quibbling obviously, for a guy with his usual 27/8/7 line that’s still best in the league when healthy, but the Lakers should take note: even LeBron is starting to slow down after 55,000 minutes.

F Paul George, Oklahoma City

At 27/8/4, George is matching Durant and LeBron step-for-step in counting stats outside of a few assists and a more inefficient two. He has a career best free throw rate, true shooting, and offensive rating and is in the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year, and he’s even coming up big in crunch time finally. This is the MVP level everyone hoped for from Paul George, even if he’s doing it in a year so loaded he’s not even a top-five candidate.

G Damian Lillard, Portland

Dame is this generation’s forgotten superstar. Only 27 players in NBA history have averaged 25ppg four straight seasons — not Melo, Dirk, or Wade — but Lillard’s doing it. He has as many full 25ppg seasons as All-Star berths, just a 3x All-Star so far. As Hardwood Paroxysm pointed out on Twitter recently, Portland hasn’t exactly given Dame much more roster help than Anthony Davis in recent years. Maybe it’s time we start respecting him carrying the Blazers to a 4-seed in back-to-back years.

Argue If You Want, But They’re All Stars

There’s two more guys that would be unprecedented All-Star snubs, but with eight stone cold locks and only four spots remaining for about 25 guys with a case, you’re not a lunatic if you argue against these guys.

Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota

Since the Jimmy Butler trade, KAT is averaging 24 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 stocks on 52/38/83 shooting. Pretty, pretty, pretty good. He’s shooting a career low field-goal percentage by almost 5% but taking more efficient shots, and he leads the team in offensive and defensive rating, playing the best defense of his career. Towns is still too inconsistent, and his 3.8 fouls per game lead the NBA and are a regular problem, but he’s also still barely 23 and would be playing his rookie season if he’d stayed in college four years. There are some warts, but he’s gonna be just fine.

G Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City

Look, we’re not leaving a guy averaging a triple-double out of the All-Star Game. Russell Westbrook is putting up 22/11/11 a night with tenacious energy every game, and he leads the league in steals and assists. Yes, the shooting numbers are atrocious and the volume is too high, considering. Westbrook has the lowest free-throw rate and true shooting of his career, and he’s hitting a miserable 27% of his shots between three and 16 feet. He’s also definitely an All-Star. Watch a Thunder game, pick any one, and tell me that’s not an All-Star. I invoke the great case of Jacobellis v. Ohio. Russell Westbrook is an All-Star. I know it when I see it.

Two spots left… for 22 candidates

I’m dead serious. I count 22 guys with a plausible All-Star case, guys that would be in the mix most seasons and might be in this year if they played out East. There are a few names that don’t quite belong, given the competition.

Draymond Green is averaging seven points on seven shots shooting under 42%, and he’s missed 30% of Golden State’s games with the worst offensive and defensive ratings of his career. He’ll be fine in June, but he’s not a 2019 All-Star. DeAndre Ayton is at 16 and 11 as a rookie, matched by 28 rookies ever, but he’s not there yet. Jusuf Nurkic has taken a serious step forward and is finally a positive on offense and better than ever on defense. Ayton and Nurkic have been good enough to get me to say nice things about them for once. That’ll have to be enough for now.

C.J. McCollum’s 21ppg aren’t enough to get him in the conversation when he contributes so little elsewhere. I’m not even sure he’d rank ahead of Buddy Hield, who’s quietly scoring 20ppg and hitting 46% of his 7.4 threes per game and looks like the real deal. Derrick Rose isn’t an All-Star either. He’s a great basketball comeback story thanks to the best shooting numbers of his career, but stop with the better-than-his-MVP-year talk. Rose was way better passing, drawing free throws, and defending. He’s been a terrific sixth man and would be an interesting cheap deadline addition if Minnesota is willing to sell.

Those six aren’t All-Stars in 2019. I don’t think you can make a fair case for them, and I wouldn’t take them over my Eastern All-Star picks either.

Steven Adams has been his usual awesome self with 15/10, mean screens, and terrific defense. Clint Capela’s numbers have been even better at 18/13, though he’s not as impactful on D and has missed some time. I’d still take both over Nikola Vucevic. Donovan Mitchell had a slow start before exploding for 28ppg in January with a suddenly scorching 42% three. It’s too late this year, but his numbers are right back in line with his rookie season. He comes up short of Devin Booker by a couple points and assists, though it’s worrying for Booker stans that Spida’s shooting numbers are just as strong. I’d pick either as an All-Star over Khris Middleton. Danilo Gallinari has been hot all season with 19ppg on 45% from downtown, but he’s played fewer games and worse defense than Tobias Harris. De’Aaron Fox has been a revelation for the Kings with a legit three-pointer, an improved free throw rate, and a more efficient 17/4/7 line. Both are more deserving 2019 All-Stars than Kyle Lowry.

That’s six more deserving All-Stars, all of whom would make my Eastern team. But we haven’t even gotten to the biggest snubs. We still have ten guys left for two spots, all ahead of Spida, Fox, Gallo, and Booker, all clearly behind our 10 All-Star locks. If we threw out conferences and picked the 24 most deserving All-Stars, how many would come from the West? By my count, the answer is 15, 16 once you account for the Oladipo injury. Expand the list to a top-40 and the West would have something like 27 of the 40 picks. Two-thirds of the league’s top talent resides out West. Life isn’t fair.

Up next are the aforementioned Tobias Harris and LaMarcus Aldridge. Harris has played every game with a 21/8 line with 61% true shooting. LMA matches him at 21/9, though he’s hitting only 40% of his mid-range and taking almost half his shots from there. Both are the most deserving candidate on a current playoff team; unfortunately that’s the best argument for each. That’s why we should be electing coaches.

Marc Gasol is on no one’s snub list, but he’s putting up 15 points, nine boards, and five dimes a game at the league’s slowest pace and has missed only one game. Klay Thompson may well make the team, but his 22/4/2 line doesn’t stack up and he’s had the worst offensive and defensive ratings since the start of his career. He was cold until January, and this is the cost of playing on the Warriors. DeMar DeRozan’s 22/6/6 line puts him ahead of Klay or Booker by counting stats, even if he’s back to taking half his shots from mid-range and hitting only 39% of them. Remember that three-pointer DDR added? He’s made seven all season and has an absurd -11.5 on/off. I’m back out on the DeRozan experience. It was a fun couple months.

Two spots left for five candidates

Okay, down to my top five. The All-Stars need to be the 10 locks at the top and two of these five, but I think you can make a pretty good case for anyone in this group over the others. We’re down to one more big man and four lead guards. I’m taking the big man with my next pick.

C Rudy Gobert, Utah

Gobert doesn’t feel like a traditional All-Star, but we love to stick one outstanding defender on the team just to remember we care, and Gobert leads the league in defensive win shares and DBPM. He’s the leader of the #2 defense and seems to have adjusted to the updated rules after a tough start, and he leads the league in rebounding rate and is tied for first in win shares with James Harden. By most advanced metrics, the Jazz have been something like the fifth to seventh best team so far. We’re grabbing their best player.

Three impossible-to-cut guards

Jamal Murray isn’t going to make the All-Star team yet, but he has officially arrived. His 19/4/5 line doesn’t particularly overwhelm, but like Jokic, we have to remember he’s playing at the league’s third slowest pace. His pace-adjusted numbers are right there with these other guys. Murray’s three- and free-throw rates are going in the wrong direction. That’s the next step for him.

Poor Mike Conley may never get his All-Star bid. He’s played all but one game and at 20/3/6 is as good as ever on offense — and remember, he’s at the league’s slowest pace. Conley and Gasol are worth the price in trade talks, but when the Grizz are 20–31 with both healthy all year, it’s definitely time to sell. If you’re going with sheer numbers, Jrue Holiday is an All-Star. Unlike Murray and Conley, Holiday’s numbers are helped by pace, and only Magic Johnson and Gary Payton ever posted a 21/5/8 line in a non-All-Star year. Hidden behind the counting numbers are a career-worst 32% three and worse than usual defensive numbers, but make no mistake about it — Conley and Holiday are deserving All-Stars and huge available trade chips.

Still. I just can’t help myself. There’s only one pick I can make for the final All-Star spot. It’s not fair to guys like Holiday and Conley who have done it for so long, but I just don’t care.

G Luka Doncic, Dallas

LUUUUUUKAAAAAAAA!!!

Doncic is averaging 20 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists as a 19-year-old rookie from Slovenia. He’s shooting well with lots of threes and free throws already and is matching any of these candidates’ numbers. The company Doncic is in as a rookie is pretty absurd. Grant Hill equaled him with 20/6/5. Magic was at 18/8/7, LeBron 21/6/6. When those are the only guys you can compare someone to, it’s a pretty special someone. And Doncic is getting better. In January he’s posted a 23/8/7, and you remember at least three ridiculous highlight shots Luka hit at the end of a game. Would you have wanted rookie Magic or LeBron or Hill in the All-Star Game? You absolutely would have, and everyone wants Luka there too. He’s a superstar already, and he deserves to be playing on the NBA’s biggest stage.

The Western Coaches

I wrote about this previously, but it’s high time we start picking coaches for the All-Star Game. We’re taking three from each conference.

Denver’s Mike Malone is our first pick. Many people thought Malone might get fired after the Nuggets missed the playoffs on the final day of the season. Instead Denver retained Malone and pretty much the same roster, then leapt to the best record in the West for most of the season. Malone built a perfect offense around Nikola Jokic, and he’s got his guys playing defense now too. He’s the second All-Star the Nuggets deserve.

Gregg Popovich is an All-Star for something like the 17th time if we’re doing this right. We all wrote the Spurs off yet again — admit it, you did too — and here they are, a 5-seed in the deepest West ever, same as always. Pop zigs while the rest of the NBA zags. He cares little for the three-point revolution and the pace-palooza. Instead we get DeRozan and Aldridge shooting more mid-rangers than ever, and Pop lost his best four defenders from a year ago, fiddled for two months, and had the Spurs playing as well as anyone in December. It’s ridiculous but not even surprising anymore.

The last spot is tough. We can’t reward Steve Kerr for a 59-win pace with all that talent. Billy Donovan has figured out his rotation at the two and four, but a team with two-and-a-half All-Stars should be this good. Doc Rivers had this spot on lock at Halloween, but the Clippers are 13–17 since November. We’re giving the last spot to Dave Joerger who has the Kings in the mix with LeBron, KAT, and Brow when everyone figured they’d be a bottom feeder. If the Kings finish 9–23, they’ll still end up with their best record in over a decade. That’s worth celebrating.

The Legacy Pick

Since we’re fixing the All-Star rules, let’s make one more change. The coaches and players get one legacy pick in addition to the 12 All-Stars. It’s an available 13th roster spot, and if any player surpasses 50% of the vote, they get the spot. Players can only be voted in with the legacy pick once.

Our Eastern legacy pick was Dwyane Wade, no longer at an All-Star level in his final season, but a star worth celebrating one last time anyway. If Vince Carter ever calls it quits, he deserves a final legacy berth. Guys like Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili should’ve taken one final lap before heading into retirement. That’s what the legacy pick is for.

The 2019 Western legacy pick is Dirk Nowitzki. And the great thing about the legacy pick is you don’t even have to defend it. Dirk is entering the three-point shootout, and that’s a good start, but I want one more All-Star Game dunk.

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