Free AI web copilot to create summaries, insights and extended knowledge, download it at here

Abstract

</a> (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) will operate to capacity in whatever environment ignorance, thoughtlessness, mistake, and error provide, delivering COVID-19 (the disease) to anyone, via anyone.</p><p id="321a">Coincidentally, presumably, as Boris Johnson (the UK Prime Minister) and health secretary Matt Hancock <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52060791?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=8c76262a98-briefing-dy-20200327&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-8c76262a98-44757493">test positive for coronavirus</a>, the UK is now reportedly moving towards <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00154-w?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=8c76262a98-briefing-dy-20200327&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-8c76262a98-44757493">large-scale at-home population testing</a>. About time. Check out Tomas Pueyo’s post again (<a href="https://readmedium.com/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56">here</a>) why that’s a big deal.</p><p id="5a0d">My specialty is policy effectiveness and outcomes (beyond so called risk-based ‘standards’, beyond flowery rhetoric, beyond belief and assumptions [all of which obscured effective pathways to better outcomes in many countries, since 1 January], but what works.</p><p id="15b2">Done well (with real-time contact tracing, fast quarantining and treatment, etc) testing at scale works.</p><p id="4be4">— — —</p><div id="088c" class="link-block"> <a href="https://readmedium.com/open-letters-to-prime-ministers-ardern-and-morrison-from-a-nobody-444d80b71c05"> <div> <div> <h2>Let’s Do This One Thing to Combat Covid-19, Globally</h2> <div><h3>A detailed picture of how it spreads will help all nations</h3></div> <div><p>medium.com</p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*XWDo5xf3nOhzZK1DUxlELg.jpeg)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><div id="f154" class="link-block"> <a href="https://readmedium.com/our-actions-determine-the-full-severity-of-covid-19-f4ac624b3f81"> <div> <div> <h2>These Actions Will Determine the Severity of COVID-19</h2> <div><h3>Leadership and behaviors matter</h3></div> <div><p>medium.com</p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*dkaaQANPIRundBMKN-6c4Q.jpeg)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><div id="0f04" class="link-block"> <a href="https://readmedium.com/the-tr

Options

ump-effect-6347385cc27"> <div> <div> <h2>The Trump Effect</h2> <div><h3>The health and economic impact of the virus is attributable to leadership</h3></div> <div><p>medium.com</p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*0qkUqGRRBf_Pah-zYoAB6Q.png)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><div id="a2bc" class="link-block"> <a href="https://readmedium.com/lockdown-ed354abde04a"> <div> <div> <h2>Lockdown</h2> <div><h3>Why lockdowns are necessary, and wrong — and what should happen next</h3></div> <div><p>medium.com</p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*XexPsHKfBoVxEfrPcaK1Mw.jpeg)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><div id="d8cd" class="link-block"> <a href="https://medium.com/@ronald.pol/covid-19-the-book-2b449352eb4b"> <div> <div> <h2>Covid-19: The Book</h2> <div><h3>A story of our times — of leadership, and outcomes</h3></div> <div><p>medium.com</p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*XncjGbjFOC_Vv7QDOWPMrQ.jpeg)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><div id="38e2" class="link-block"> <a href="https://readmedium.com/covid-19-collected-haiku-dca45ae0cc60"> <div> <div> <h2>Covid-19: Collected Haiku</h2> <div><h3>A story of our times, in chapters of 17 syllables</h3></div> <div><p>medium.com</p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*qDsr6JexSoi7tNrLc5Vwsw.jpeg)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><div id="253f" class="link-block"> <a href="https://readmedium.com/introducing-ron-pol-62d1a192643d"> <div> <div> <h2>Introducing: Ron Pol</h2> <div><h3>Better outcomes, by design</h3></div> <div><p>medium.com</p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*ElRIaD5xUkkUaPEY0OMBPA.jpeg)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div></article></body>

Youth Safety

Haiku

Safe, say media.

OK to party and play.

Death stalks all nearby.

— — —

Transmission occurs long before cases are ‘known’, especially when testing is limited, as remains the case in the US and many countries, despite evidence of its effectiveness, as Tomas Pueyo graphically reveals.

The harsh reality is that most people will be oblivious they’re spreading the virus for a week or two before they get symptoms. One study found a median 5.1 days for symptoms to appear, and up to 97.5% of cases in 11.5 days. That’s a long time with exponential spread. Just ask Hermes Solenzol Ph.D. about that (also with handy charts). Another study found that the virus arrived in Italy around 1 January 2020, long before Italy’s first case appeared (20 February). By then, the virus had already spread throughout the entire region. (Links in These Actions Will Determine the Severity of COVID-19 and “Okay, Let’s Roll”).

Another study — on the cruise ship Diamond Princess — found that 18% (or more) of infected people showed no symptoms at all.

This means that a lot of people — young, old, whatever, the virus doesn’t care — will pass it on long before they get symptoms, and may never show symptoms; completely oblivious to the harm they cause to people they love, people they know, and complete strangers. Some may die.

SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) will operate to capacity in whatever environment ignorance, thoughtlessness, mistake, and error provide, delivering COVID-19 (the disease) to anyone, via anyone.

Coincidentally, presumably, as Boris Johnson (the UK Prime Minister) and health secretary Matt Hancock test positive for coronavirus, the UK is now reportedly moving towards large-scale at-home population testing. About time. Check out Tomas Pueyo’s post again (here) why that’s a big deal.

My specialty is policy effectiveness and outcomes (beyond so called risk-based ‘standards’, beyond flowery rhetoric, beyond belief and assumptions [all of which obscured effective pathways to better outcomes in many countries, since 1 January], but what works.

Done well (with real-time contact tracing, fast quarantining and treatment, etc) testing at scale works.