The Trump Effect
The health and economic impact of the virus is attributable to leadership
Virus comes, stocks plunge.
A book title reminder,
Art of Denial.
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In the flood of books that will follow, for lessons in future crisis management it would be useful if researchers established a baseline social and economic impact from the virus, assuming a ‘perfect’ response. (Perhaps a combination of Singapore or Taiwan’s initial “get ahead of the virus” mentality, Vietnam or South Korea’s rapidly implemented “mass testing and vigorous tracing” and New Zealand’s subsequent “eradication” strategy. Or Sweden’s “low-scale” approach might ultimately prove its worth).
With an appropriate baseline as the optimal strategy, researchers could then map any additional social and economic impact attributable to leadership, ie resulting from leaders’ actions, and inaction.
If the US proves to be the world leader in sub-optimal responses to the virus, it might be called “The Trump Effect”. For example, at 12 April 2020:
- Despite advance notice of the virus (with more opportunity to respond effectively) the number of cases and deaths in the US are now many times higher than China, the only country with no warning.
- The US now far surpasses every other country in the number of confirmed cases, by a significant (and growing) margin, at 525,000 (compared with current #2 Spain, 162,000), and already 30% of the world total (1.8m).
- The number of confirmed cases in the US — arguably at least as much the result of denial, inaction, and rejection of science, than the virus itself — is equal to the number of confirmed cases in Italy, Spain, France, and the United Kingdom, combined — until now the four worst affected countries in terms of the number of deaths (60,000).
- The US has just overtaken Italy as the country with the highest number of deaths (20,000), tragically, rising fast.
However, the tremendous resolve and mobilization that America does so well is now swinging into action, and the full impact is yet to play out anywhere — including the UK, India, Brazil, Africa — so it may be too early to tell which country will ultimately lead the world in the worst response to Covid-19.
Nonetheless, the United States’ influence on the global economy, and China’s success in cutting the virus’ transmission rates and early re-opening of its economy, suggests that this part of the ‘race’ may already be won. America’s persistent refusal to address, let alone adequately acknowledge, the problem, through January and February, has tipped the United States, and the world, into recession. And, likely, depression — on a scale not seen since 1929.