Who will make the “Jump?” Part 3

A guide to which young NBA players will most likely become future All-Stars and which ones will hamstring their franchises with a horrendous contract.

In Part One, we looked at the success rate of NBA Rookies of the Year to go on to become All-Stars (or better) during their career. Between1980–1999, the success rate was 85%. From 2000–2018 the success rate dropped to 67%, perhaps due to the influx of one and done college players.

In Part Two, we focused on the idea that most NBA players make the jump in their third season and found this to be true for players 25 and over, but there are some cases where third-year players who are 22 and under may make the jump in their fourth season. After that, we took a look at the best statistics to use to evaluate player performances and came up with the On/Off Net Rating and the four components: Net On-Court ORtg (aka Box Score +/- rating); Net On/Off ORtg; Net On/Off DRtg; and Net Off-Court +/- rating.

In Part Three, we’ll look at Net On/Off Court Ratings of third-year players, the talented sophomore group from the 2017 draft, and sift through the statistical tea leaves to see who could make the jump.

Here are the players from the 2017 All-Rookie Team, with All-Junior Team Players in bold. (I didn’t include the All-Junior Team selections who were not playing starters minutes, as top role players almost never become All-Stars, and On/Off Ratings are skewed when a player is mostly facing other bench players.)

Embiid: year 1 (+11.5); year 2 (+12.7); year 3 (+9.9)

Brogdan: year 1 (+4.8); year 2 (-2.0); year 3 (+4.9)

J. Murray: year 1 (+3.7); year 2 (+7.0); year 3 (+2.6)

Brown: year 1 (-7.9); year 2 (+8.4); year 3 (-2.5)

Ingram: year 1 (-1.0); year 2 (-3.1); year 3 (0.0)

Hield: year 1 (-7.2); year 2 (+7.4); year 3 (+1.8)

Saric: year 1 (-2.9); year 2 (+3.5); year 3 (-6.1)

Chriss: year 1 (-8.7); year 2 (+0.4); year 3 (-13.7)

Hernangomez: year 1 (+3.0); year 2 (+0.9); year 3 (-7.1)

Ferrell: year 1 (-6.5); year 2 (+8.8); year 3 (-1.3)

But the big story was Pascal Siakam (27th pick in 2016 draft, and limited role player as a rookie), who emerged as perhaps the second best player on an elite team. Look at his progression.

Siakam: year 1 (-7.0); year 2 (+4.0); year 3 (+13.9)

Let me repeat the main observations I made in Part Two after looking at the On/Off Rating progressions of the last 14 ROY winners and four MVP level players:

• Any player who registered an On/Off Rating over (+6.5) in one of their first three years became an All-Star.
• Any player who registered an On/Off Rating over (+9.0) in one of their first three years made an All-NBA team.
• Any player who had a positive On/Off Rating in each their first three seasons became a franchise level player.

Players who made the jump. No need to look much deeper.

Joel Embiid hit all three milestones and is a Tier 2 player.

Siakam had huge Net On/Off ORTG (box score +/-) in two straight seasons (+10.4, +11.0), but was a 20 mpg reserve his first year and a 32 mpg starter this year. This year, he was not only in the conversation for being an All-Star selection, a number of basketball writers are talking about his candidacy for the All-NBA Third Team.

Brogdon’s year three Net On/Off Rating (+4.9) was a huge Net Off/On ORtg (+11.2) offset by his team’s fantastic play (+6.3). Given the fact that Brogdon had the #1 defensive rating in the NBA among all guards (min. 20 games and 20 minutes played), and joined the elite 50/40/90 shooting club, it’s safe to say this guy will be an All-Star very soon.

Players who may still make the jump. These players required a longer look and are listed by the likelihood they will become future All-Stars.

#1 Jamal Murray: In his big year, he had a modest Net On-Court ORtg of +3.7, while the rest of the team was worse (-3.3) when he was off court. However, when he was on the court, Denver’s ORtg was 116.0, two points above #1 rated Houston. Without him, Denver’s ORtg dropped to #19 in the league.

The impact of Murray’s play is huge, as we’ve seen in the first round of the playoffs. Murray is basically a less consistent, version of Kyrie Irving.

At least when it comes to playing the game.

When it comes to being annoying, he’s already an All-NBA candidate. He’s so annoying, that he even annoyed his Boston counterpart, who is no model of comportment.

But look at Murray in the first round series between the Nuggets and Spurs.

Murray disappeared for seven straight quarters as the Spurs won Game 1 and took a 16-point lead in the 3rd quarter. Suddenly, Murray turned into Kyrie Irving, scoring 21 4th quarter points, and the Nuggets won game 2.

In Game 3, he disappeared on offense and played zero defense, allowing that renowned offensive threat Derrick White to score 36 points in another Spurs win.

In a Game 4 comeback win, Murray led Denver in efficiency, scoring 24 points on 14 shots, shooting 60% on three pointers (3 of 5) with the team shooting 48.4% from deep overall.

In Game 5, Murray led the team with 23 points, shooting 44.4% on three pointers (5 of 9), and the rest of the team followed suit (42.4% overall), in an easy Nuggets win.

In Game 6, Murray did his best impression of D’Angelo Russell, scoring 16 points on 18 shots, as the Nuggets made the Lakers look like long distance dead-eyes, burying themselves in a sea of bricks (6 of 24 three point shooting).

Equally notable, he is one of those rare players who registered a positive Net On-Off Rating in all three seasons, and had a positive Net On-Court ORtg every year, in spite of playing for a team that had a losing record in his rookie season.

If Murray can improve enough to become a net neutral defender, he will become an All-Star, but the real question is if he becomes one of those guys who gets a huge contract based on those highlight games, but never produces enough on the big stage to play a leading role on a championship team.

#2 Jaylen Brown: In his big year, he had a big Net On-Court ORtg of +7.5, and the team was below average (-0.9) when he was off court. When he was on court, Boston’s ORtg rose from #18 to #7; without him, the offense dropped to #25. When he was on court, Boston’s DRtg was steady at #2; without him the defense dropped to #9.

He was a very good 3-and-D type player when his three point shot is falling. In 2018, he shot almost 40%; this season he regressed almost all the way back to his rookie year at 34.4%. That’s below league average. Combine that with his horrendous ball handling skills and passing skills (1.01 assist/turnover ratio), and his +7.5 On/Off Rating looks to be more of a fluke than a sign of good things to come. However, he is only 22, so he has time to improve the glaring problems with his game.

#3 Buddy Hield: In his big year, he had a Net On-Court ORtg of -4.0, and the rest of the team was beyond bad (-11.0) when he was off court. He still hasn’t recorded a positive Net On-Court ORtg in his career, but he’s a great three point shooter (career average 41.9%). It’s hard to say he’ll never make the jump when he was one of only 21 players to record a 20/5/2.5 line this season and 17 of them have been All-Stars.

#4 Brandon Ingram: his mediocre On/Off Ratings give no indication he will become an All-Star player. However, at age 21, he showed some flashes from January to March this season (20/6/3.5), that only 12 other players his age have accomplished over the course of a season. If D’Angelo Russell could make a huge jump in year four, maybe Ingram could do the same thing. The problem is he will also be in line for his first non-rookie contract at the same time. Even if he makes a jump, it’s hard to say if he’ll become another Wiggins or be a poor man’s version of Durant.

Players who won’t make the jump. An On/Off Rating anomaly.

Yogi Ferrell: In his big year, he had a Net On-court ORtg of +0.3, and the rest of the team was horrible (-8.5) when he was off court. He only started 21 games that year, and his role has be reduced even further this season, as he backed up De’Aaron Fox. As a short point guard about to turn 26, he looks like a career role player, not a future All-Star.

Second Year Player Rankings and Projections

As I explained in Part Two, there are some cases where On/Off Ratings could yield skewed results. I didn’t consider bench players or starters playing role player minutes (Morris, Sabonis, Adebayo, Bryant, Bogdanovic), or players who had a large negative Net On-Court ORtg or a large negative Net On/Off Court Rating (Allen, Markkannen, Jackson). These are players who would have to become 30 mpg starters to even have a chance to make an All-Star game.

Also, age will also have to be factored in to these projections.

Here are the On/Off ratings for the players from the 2018 All-Rookie Team, with Brandon Anderson’s 1st Team All-Sophomore players in bold.

Simmons: year 1 (+7.0); year 2 (-2.3)

Mitchell: year 1 (+6.9); year 2 (+3.6)

Tatum: year 1 (+8.1); year 2 (+4.8)

Kuzma: year 1 (-1.9); year 2 (+1.5 )

Markkanen: year 1 (-3.4); year 2 (+5.0)

Ball: year 1 (+1.2); year 2 (+1.3)

Bogdanovic: year 1 (-3.0); year 2 (+0.5)

Collins: year 1 (-1.5); year 2 (+6.2)

Jackson: year 1 (-6.0); year 2 (-0.8)

Smith Jr.: year 1 (-9.4); year 2 (-1.8 with Mavs, +2.0 with Knicks)

And then there’s the guy who didn’t make the All-Rookie team, but made the biggest jump of any second year player:

De’Aaron Fox: year 1 (-5.8); year 2 (+5.3)

Now it’s time to finally attack the question “who will make the Jump?”

Players are listed by Tier, but it’s possible each player could go even higher.

First, players who have already made the jump.

Tier 2 (All-NBA, multiple All-Star, top 15 NBA-Player): Ben Simmons

I know this is an obvious choice, but it’s hard to teach point guards to grow an extra six to ten inches.

Last year, Boston figured out how to stifle Ben Simmons, and he struggled at times this year. But he recorded a second positive Net On-Court ORtg, and had a negative Net On/Off Rating because of how well the team played when Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris were given more time to dominate the ball.

Even though he still can’t make a jump shot and gets intentionally sent to the line, Simmons does too many things as a 6'10" point guard not to be a once-in-a-generation type player. Only 10 players in NBA history have averaged at least 15/8/7. Simmons has done it in his first two years. He made the All-Star game this year, and is sure to become an Eastern Conference fixture.

But here’s the crazy thing. He’s playing for a team with a horribly constructed roster, sharing the floor with an All-NBA center who closes off the lane and an All-Star shooting guard who needs the ball in his hands, while being coached by a guy who doesn’t know use him.

When Embiid sat out Game 3 against the Nets, and Boban fouled out, coach Brett Brown stumbled upon the idea of using Simmons as a point center in their small ball lineup. Simmons looked like a completely different player, with 15 points, 3 assists and 2 blocks in the 4th quarter of that crucial game.

Can you imagine what Ben Simmons could become if he played for Gregg Popovich? That guy turned a food loving, pudgy Frenchman (not named Tony Parker) into arguably the NBA Finals MVP.

The questions moving forward are if he will ever develop a jump shot, and play with the right coach and system. That will determine if he could ever become a Tier 1 player.

Next, players who will definitely make the jump.

Tier 3 (All-Star, top 30 NBA Player): Mitchell, Fox, Tatum

#1 Donovan Mitchell: in spite of his terrible shooting to start the season, Mitchell‘s post All-Star play was out of this world: 26.7/4.5/4.6, with a .451 3P%. That’s only been done by four other players by the age of 22: LeBron, Jordan, Kobe and McGrady in a season. His full season of 23.8/4.1/4.2 has only been done by seven other players age 22 or younger.

With two straight solid Net On-Court ORtgs (+7.0, +6.6), and two straight positive Net On/Off Court Ratings (+6.9, .+3.9), Mitchell will eventually be an All-Star, but he’s in the West, so it could still take a while before that recognition comes.

Mitchell is Utah’s primary creator and scorer, and he showed the ability to rise to the occasion in last year’s playoffs, overcoming Westbrook and George to help defeat the Thunder, but those same qualities turned into negatives this year as his inefficient volume shooting and penchant for turnovers killed his team in crunch time against Houston.

Mitchell has a true alpha dog mentality. The only question is if it gets harnessed properly so he turns into a Damian Lillard instead of a Russell Westbrook.

He still has a lot to learn, and for many players, basketball IQ and court vision are skills they never master. That mental growth is what will determine if he eventually tops out as a Tier 2 player.

#2 De’Aaron Fox: by all rights, I shouldn’t have Fox this high. He didn’t reach an All-Star level Net On/Off Rating of at least +6.5. His +5.3 Rating is the result of a slightly positive Net On-Court ORtg (+0.9) combined with a weak team (-4.4).

But he made the biggest jump of any second year player, and was so good through the All-Star break, I had him above Mitchell as the #1 candidate to make the jump to Tier 2. However, we haven’t seen him in playoff games, while Mitchell has already shown he can do damage at the highest levels of the game.

Fox’s impact on both sides of the ball was clear. When he was on the court, Sacramento (#17) became a top 10 offense (#8). When he was off the court, Sacramento’s defense (#21) dropped to #28.

Even though Sacramento won far fewer games than Utah and Boston, Fox ended up with more win shares this season than either Mitchell or Tatum.

Fox showed the humility to be a great leader as a point guard in the Rising Stars Challenge game, as he focused on setting up teammates and doing the little things to win, with 16 assists and 5 steals.

There are five reasons that Fox could make another big jump and eventually become a Tier 2 player:

1. He’s only 21
2. He is one of the fastest players in the league, a skill you can’t teach.
3. He had an impressive 2.6 assist/turnover ratio this year, so he has a high basketball IQ.
4. He became an above league average three point shooter in his second year.
5. He has been in the wrong system under the wrong coach. As a rookie, Fox was kept in a straight jacket by Dave Joeger (of Grit and Grind Grizzlies fame), who wanted to pass the ball into the post to the 36-year-old remaints of Zach Randolph. This year, Joeger decided to play fast, but that’s not his style. Next year, Luke Walton will install the Warriors’ system in Sacramento, and that could supercharge Fox.

Put that all together and you’ve got a John Wall who can shoot jump shots, play defense and get along with teammates. That’s the formula for a true franchise player.

#3 Jayson Tatum: because he is surrounded by three other former and present All-Stars, and the best young coach in the league, it’s a little harder to say how much of a jump Tatum can make, especially after his amazing rookie season.

He has had a positive Net On/Off Rating two years in a row, and one that easily surpassed the All-Star milestone (+8.1). This season, he had a strong positive Net On-Court ORtg (+6.6) that was offset by how the team still played well without him (+1.8). But overall, he moved the needle for his team a little less than Fox. Boston (#10 offensive efficiency) moved up to #3 with him; without him, they dropped to #12. Their defense (#6) moved down to #8 with him on court, and down to #13 without him.

But Tatum’s numbers don’t match the eye test.

So much about Tatum’s season felt like a regression, as he became an inefficient scorer who depended on iso play and contested fall away mid range jumpers, and had big drops in shooting, and the number of free throw attempts.

He is still one of the youngest players at age 21, so he may make a big jump next year as his body develops. (Note: in the playoff series against a limited Indiana team, Tatum had a super efficient playoff series, shooting over 54% on his three-pointers, but committing 11 turnovers against only 6 assists.)

Because of his position and the current limitations of his role on the Celtics, Tatum may have to wait a while to become an All-Star, even in the East. For now, Giannis and Kawhi Leonard will be automatic fixtures, while Siakam, Middleton and Griffin are putting up better numbers than him.

Overall, I don’t like his odds of becoming a Tier 2 player as much as players like Mitchell or Fox. He is not an elite ball handler, and the league is full of other 3-and-D wings. And that’s not even thinking about how many superstars play his position: Giannis, LeBron, Durant, Leonard, and George, along with past All-NBA fixtures like Butler, Green, Aldridge and Griffin).

Next are players who may still make the jump. These players required a longer look and are listed by the likelihood they will become future All-Stars.

Tier 4 (NBA starter/key role player): Collins, Ball, Kuzma

#1 John Collins: his Net On/Off Rating of +6.2 isn’t quite good enough to be a sure thing Tier 3 player, and his -2.5 Net On-Court ORtg only looked great in comparison to his team’s terrible play (-8.5).

However, his contributions on offense made him a little more than just a good stats on a bad team kind of guy. With Collins on the floor, Atlanta’s offense jumped to #5 in efficiency; without him, their rating dropped from #23 to #29. That kind of an enormous jump coupled with learning how to play decent defense will make him a very good player, but not at the level of Embiid, Jokic, Davis, Gobert, Towns and Cousins.

The one thing that guarantees him a future place on All-Star rosters is that Collins plays in the Eastern Conference, a traditional haven for mediocre big men to gain entry into the All-Star game.

#2 Kyle Kuzma: no other second year player had more crap thrown at him, yet still maintained his energy and a positive attitude, and ended the season with a positive Net On/Off Rating. With him on court, the Lakers were #13 in offensive efficiency; without him, they dropped to #26.

While the Magic Johnson trash fire burned all the young Lakers this year, only Kuzma was forced to play out of position and guard centers who were as much as four inches taller and 30 pounds heavier. In spite of shooting badly from deep, his continued progress in finishing at the rim helped him end the season with a higher eFG% than all the first team players except Simmons.

Kuzma was one of only 20 NBA players this season who averaged 18.5/5.5/2.5. Defensively, his work ethic showed by drawing the second most charges of any All-Sophomore player. He definitely needs more discipline in his shot selection, and continued work on the defensive end, but Kuzma has been praised for having a tremendous work ethic.

Kuzma may be the most irrationally overconfident player in his entire draft class, with the possible exception of Dennis Smith (who demanded the ball when he was playing in the backcourt with Luka Doncic).

If anyone has the Mamba mentality, it’s Kuzma, who jacked up a ton of shots and made over 55% of them, for a 36/6/2 stat line that won him the 2019 Rising Stars Challenge MVP.

Given the quality of forwards in the league, it will take years (or a trade to the Eastern Conference) before Kuzmania will take over an All-Star game arena.

#3 Lonzo Ball: I saw a tweet from a Lakers observer who couldn’t figure out if Lonzo was the greatest bad player or the worst great player he had ever seen. And that kind of summarizes his career so far — a mix of fantastic passes and defensive plays spoiled by three point air balls and bricks from the foul line.

In spite of the Lakers’ turmoil, youth and poor roster construction, Ball has had a tiny positive Net On/Off Rating both years, with his terrible offense negating most of the benefits he brings on defense. This year, the Lakers were a top 10 defense; without him, they dropped to #20.

Like everything else about Ball, even the idea that he can make the jump will be polarizing.

On the one hand, he is only 21 and only in his second year of learning how to play the pick and roll. On the other thing, did you see that shooting form?

On the one hand, he made significant progress this season in his ability to absorb contact and finish at the rim, and improved his three point shooting. On the other hand, will he stay aggressive if he can’t make a free throw?

On the one hand, he plays in a huge media market, so every great play gets shown on Sports Center. On the other hand, can he stay healthy for a full season?

Based on Per 36 stats, the offensively impaired version of Ball (11.8/6.3/6.5) is fairly similar to Derrick White (13.8/5.1/5.5), but three years younger. He’s also a better defender and capable of leading an offense, a role that White will probably never be given in a Popovich-coached team.

If Ball can improve his free throw shooting, he’ll have the confidence to finish at the rim more often and could become a poor man’s version of Ben Simmons (14/7/7?). On a winning team in Los Angeles, there’s a path for him making an All-Star game a few years from now, a la Draymond Green, or that year the Hawks had four players in an All-Star game (Jeff Teague? Kyle Korver?).

#4 Derrick White: as a product of the Spurs system, White was put in the best possible position to succeed, with two veteran All-Stars to lead the offense. He was a key piece for the Spurs, and had the second highest On/Off Rating (+6.4) on the team. With him on the floor, the Spurs jumped from #6 in offensive rating to #1. With him off the floor, the Spurs fell from a league average defense (#16) to the dregs of the league (#28).

Derrick White scored 36 points in a playoff game. That game alone have to put him in the conversation about who will make the jump.

White is an excellent defender who can occasionally hit a three pointer, is solid at the free throw line and is an intelligent passer (2.78 ast/to ratio), but he may not make much the jump to Tier 3 for the following reasons:

1. At 24, he’s played four years of college and one year in the G League, so he’s a fully formed player.
2. His limited offensive role and bench level minutes in Pop’s system will make it really tough for him to put up big numbers.
3. The Spurs are a small market team that doesn’t project to be a top 2 team in the conference, so he won’t get into an All-Star game like a Draymond Green, as a defensive/glue guy.

#5 Dennis Smith Jr: After getting traded to the Knicks, DSJ’s PER 36 numbers were18.5/3.5/6.8. Playing for a terrible team that will let him shoot as much as he wants usually doesn’t end in an All-Star selections. But this is the Eastern Conference, and that just might be enough to make an All-Star Team.

More NBA Stuff:

My mostly correct first round playoff predictions, featuring the greatest photo of a weiner with big “Ballz” in the history of social media.

Parts One and Two of “Who Will Make the Jump?”