Get ’em while they’re hot!
Fiery takes, playoff predictions, and a self-congratulatory parade featuring quotes from articles I wrote that you now wish you had read.
Last year I wrote articles predicting the playoffs and was right about everything because there were zero surprises. This year, with all the opening day upsets, I’m going out on an even bigger ledge by predicting the series by wins. This could be embarrassing, but I’m finding courage by rereading my analyses from early in the season.
I just stumbled on my first article analyzing the NBA at the first quarter of the season, and pulled out the quotes regarding each playoff team.
Let’s go through them by the playoff brackets to see how I did:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Milwaukee
The Bucks are also for real. In my Eastern prediction, I had them at #5, because I wasn’t sure a new coach could raise their level: “It remains to be seen whether their new coach, Mike Budenholzer can turn these ill-fitting pieces into something precious.” Budenholzer made me a believer.”
I’ll take that as a win.
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(8) Detroit
I don’t think Detroit can sustain their current level (48 win pace). Their point differential projects as 43-win team. But they play in the East, so who knows?
They ended up with 41 wins. Not bad. But my preseason prediction was for them to miss the playoffs, so I was definitely wrong about the Pistons.
Milwaukee wins the series 4–0
(2) Toronto
What makes them so good? Having a top-5 superstar (Kawhi Leonard), a strong starting unit (#3 in point differential) that has the flexibility of using either a big traditional center (Valanciunas) or a small ball 5(Siakam), and a super deep bench. I picked the Raptors to win the East, and they are here to stay.
Not looking so good after losing game 1, but I would have won the over bet for the season.
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(7) Orlando
I started out with the intention of writing about the Orlando Magic, who had just beaten the Lakers twice in the span of nine days. While the fans were angry about the “bad” losses, and the media characterized the Magic as “mediocre,” I thought Orlando had some really good players.
At this point, the question becomes whether they want to sustain their current level of play, where sneaking into the #8 seed would prevent them from getting another high draft pick.
Apparently, they chose wisely. That win over Toronto, regardless of how the series ends, is the greatest surprise the franchise has experienced since beating the Cavaliers in 2009. Once I saw Orlando play in those early games against the Lakers, I knew they were good. Three for four. So far, so good.
Toronto wins the series 4–2
(3) Philadelphia
They’ve got a lot of work ahead of them, but that talent isn’t going anywhere this season, so expect them to sustain their play as a Top 4 team in the East.
As I predicted, the 76ers finished in the top four, but they’ve got a lot of work ahead of them, especially after stinking up the floor in Game 1.
The are who we thought they were, for better or worse. Here’s what I wrote in the Eastern Conference predictions I wrote after watching Boston crush Philly on opening day:
This off season, I thought that Embiid and Simmons would make significant improvements in their games and make the leap to have a shot at winning the East. Watching them stumble and bumble against the Celtics proved that my one time observation was nothing more than a day dream.
For the same reason people were killing Lonzo Ball last season (“He can’t shoot, teams will collapse their defense into the paint. He can’t make free throws, so teams can play hack-a-shaq and get him off the floor.”), probably every other coach in the NBA is thinking the same thing about Ben Simmons. Or they should be. Brad Stevens obviously did, and once again punked the 76ers badly.
So, thanks, Boston. You woke me up to the reality that the 76ers are much further from winning the East than I thought.
Obviously, Philadelphia simply has too much talent for the rest of the East, and while Brett Brown looked like an idiot coaching against Brad Stevens, in the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king.
If they blow this relatively easy first round series, maybe they’ll finally get rid of Brett Brown. He is a young player development coach like Doug Collins or Mark Jackson, but with the talent this team has, they need a coach who can take them to the next level, like Phil Jackson or Steve Kerr. Otherwise, we’ll see some big move, like trading Ben Simmons for someone who can space the floor and let Embiid terrorize the NBA in the post the way he should.
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(6) Brooklyn
Brooklyn has two young guards (Russell and Dinwiddie) who catch fire once in a while. When they do, they can hang with playoff level teams (wins over Philadelphia, Denver and Detroit, plus a few close losses).
Which they did, in Game 1. I thought Brooklyn would be better this year, but not this good. I would have won the over bet, but did not think they would make the playoffs this year.
Philadelphia wins the series 4–3
(4) Boston
Because they have one of the best coaches in the NBA, they will probably bounce back to become a Top 4 team in the East, but they will have a tough time to even reach the conference finals.
And they did. Another one bites the dust.
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(5) Indiana
They’re just solid enough to beat all the teams below them… On the other hand, the Pacers are not good enough to beat the better teams… Indiana looks to be a #5 seed not because of any slippage in their play, but because of Milwaukee’s surprise jump to the top of the Eastern Conference.
Nailed it.
Boston wins the series 4–2
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Golden State
As long as Stephen Curry gets healthy for the playoffs, they will still be the team to beat for the title.
That was too easy.
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(8) Los Angeles Clippers
…good coaching, solid defense, a very deep team with almost no drop off, and the 4th quarter pyrotechnics of super 6th man Lou Williams.
The Clippers are a lock to make the playoffs, but I don’t think they can sustain their current level, and will settle into that space where they are battling to hold on to the #8 seed.
Five straight wins for me.
Golden State wins the series 4–0
(2) Denver
Denver has excellent balance, as they are one of only two teams that ranks in the Top 10 in point differentials for both starters… With their depth, they look like they can sustain their play as a top 5 team in the West.
The bench ended up 8th and the starters ended up 11th, which was quite good considering how many injuries they faced this season. From another article I wrote about Denver in December:
They won 46 games last year, so they’re on schedule to win between 51 and 56 games…
The young reserves may regress to the mean… A big part of the bench’s success has been due to their excellent 3-point shooting. I think it’s unlikely they win a playoff series unless they are able to secure home court advantage.
I was right about them getting 50 wins, and also right about the importance of their young players.
Denver and San Antonio split four game this season, so this is not a normal 2 vs 7 rout. Denver plays at a slower pace than San Antonio which is perfect for the Spurs old vets. (On the other hand, Sacramento ran them out of the gym, sweeping all three games). Denver needs their young guys to play better, for more minutes and increase the tempo, or this could get ugly really fast, as the Nuggets lost their home court advantage in Game 1.
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(7) San Antonio
I think the Spurs can sustain their current level of play, but being a .500 team will mean they miss the playoffs.
Wrong with extenuating circumstances. Can I argue temporary insanity? (Note to self: once again, never, ever bet against the coaching genius of Gregg Popovich.)
San Antonio wins the series 4–2
(3) Portland
Portland… has shown that they belong in the playoffs, even if they come up short once the playoffs arrive. Currently the #6 seed, Portland is right around where I expected them, and they have the offensive fire power to sustain their level.
Once the playoffs arrive, top teams will survive the Lillard-McCollum gauntlet, leaving them stuck as one and done team in the playoffs.
I would have won the over bet, but I was wrong on this one as Portland overachieved. They’re not playing a top team, so their run will continue past the first round.
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(6) Oklahoma City
The Thunder’s biggest off season move was trading Carmelo Anthony. Who knew the power of addition by subtraction?
…effort on defense is something a team can bring every night, so look for them to sustain their level of play as a Top 5 team in the West. Having said that, I still think they are most probably a one-and-done team in the playoffs
I was never high on OKC, originally predicting they would be 8th seed. After seeing them play at little, I thought they could hang in the top 5, and they finished one game worse than that. It’s tough to count it as a loss when you’re within one game of their final seeding.
Portland wins the series 4–3
(4) Houston
Houston (9–10) is also struggling. The Rockets’ launch this season looks more like this:
In spite of their troubles, the Rockets are the only team under .500 in the NBA with a winning record (7–6) against teams above .500. I think they will regain their mojo because Harden and Paul (if healthy) are simply too good not to finish in the top 4.
Was it obvious to everyone else? If not, I’ll take a bow.
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(5) Utah
Utah (9–12) was originally my pick for the #3 seed… This is another case of irrational expectations due to recency bias, as I assumed they would be the same team they were in the second half of last season (29–6), instead of the team they were through the first quarter of the last season (10–11).
For now, the Jazz are an inharmonious mess, because they can’t play defense under the new freedom of motion rules. Kind of ironic, no? The team whose name is a genre of improvisational music doesn’t like to play a more free flowing kind of game. Okay, never mind.
Utah has a very good coach in Quinn Snyder, so in this rare case, bad play is not sustainable. Like last season, they will figure out how to play the right way, and they’ll get on a hot streak that will boost them back into the playoffs.
I thought they would be better than last year, and they were by two games. If the criterion was betting the over/under, I would have won on this one, even though my expectations were too high.
Houston wins the series 4–1
After watching so many games, and doing all the research this year to write what seems endlessly about the NBA, I fully expect all my series picks to be wrong.
