What You Need To Know About Robots And Our Future.
Are they friends or are they foes?
Do you remember X-Men? When the World first realizes that mutants exist, panic spread. Humans beyond the normal means who can do extraordinary feats are treated as a different race and with animosity.
To subordinate the human race or to live harmoniously was a multi-decade long debate between Charles Xavier and Erik Lehnsherr.
If that was any sign of the future to come — We are experiencing the same crossroads as do the 2 best friends and each other’s worse enemies. The battle lines have been drawn between the human race and the rise of robots.
I occasionally wonder why this is so, especially after staring at my beloved home automation robot that does the daily vacuuming on my behalf. For every 6 days of hard work, I reward him with one day of maintenance cleaning and wash. He has no complaints.
And quite possibly, robots can be deployed to areas where there are gaps in our society proving to be extremely difficult to fill. To see that in action, we have to take a 10,000 feet high perspective and evaluate where we are today and what problems we will encounter shortly.
# 1 — A World-Wide Greying Population.
The post-World War 2 baby boomers are knocking at their retirement doorsteps. If an elder is born in 1950, he/she would be exactly 70 years of age in 2020. I am not too sure about you but I have doubts about going to work when I am 70.
Match that with population decline in the 1st World Countries. Just July last year, Singapore has its Fertility Rate dropped to its 8-year low. The replacement rate, defined as the number of children born to replace their parents, has gone below the optimal rate of 2.1.
These statistics may seem cold and blend to many. On the contrary. It has huge implications. For one, the taxpayer base will get lower. To get the same amount of tax revenue to support social programs means a reduced population of working adults has to pay more over time.
Second, overall the overall consumption engine will start to decline. Elders don’t need to spend that much. Babies are the ultimate spenders. Remember, they generate zero income. They need their parents to be motivated to work hard to care for them.
# 2 — The Ever-Increasing Level of Education.
I don’t have any statistics to show here, although it would not be difficult to pull one from the internet.
As more of the younger population aspire for a better life, and their parents would want their children to one-up their own achievements, more kids are now entering college. I think it is possible to get into college with sports credentials too.
While that is a good thing at the individual level, it might not be so in aggregation. Education ministers are eager to prove that they have put in place the best system in the World, using record numbers of college graduates as prove. What that does, eventually, is to create a stress fracture in the open employment market.
No highly qualified college graduates will seek administrative openings and lower monthly remuneration, am I right?
Where Robots Value-Add.
In brief, they add value so by filling in the cracks of the system.
When the higher age-groups of the working population start exiting the open employment market in cohorts, it creates a demand for eldercare. A strong one, in fact.
With the remaining working population having to work longer hours to maintain the same level of productivity, diverting this group of human resources from the current pool to the eldercare industry creates a bigger hole for the existing economy.
We can explore having robots do basic tasks at home, to alleviate the demands for daily sanitation.
Also, as the working population continues their pursuit of higher-paying jobs, more working hours will be committed to their work.
Less time required for housework is brilliant, information at our fingertips is wonderful. Alexa and Siri could be an Operating System infused into our home-assistant robot, just like Tony Stark’s J.A.R.V.I.S. and F.R.I.D.A.Y.
They could be our friends in terms of professional and academic research since they are great at processing BIG DATA and providing real-time, on-demand analytics.
Imagine the amount of time that can be drastically reduced from blogging if all it takes is for us to speak our minds. How convenient would that be? That time savings from the actual act of writing can be channeled to playing Xbox with the kids.
A Robot that can help type out the blog? Hey, that is my kind of cute.
A Note of Perspective.
I have to declare that I am not a Professor of Robotics.
What I voice out is the potential of doing more (tasks) with less (people). And it works for the broader economy. As elders retire and the young seek high paying jobs, industrial-age jobs such as train operators and bus captains become in danger of never finding human resource replacement.
For a couple of years, yes, we can bring in foreign talent to fill those holes. Not any longer if the education levels of the resource import countries start to rise.
Driverless vehicles, robots programmed to understand road safety and have integrated GPS with the flexibility of taking the next lane when there is a roadblock, blocking an accident site.
I wonder .. how would that look like?
Thinking of our future,
Aldric
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