Week 7 NFL picks against the spread

An ugly slate of games is saved by Chiefs vs Bengals, with picks for every game and Jaguars, Vikings, and Falcons best bets

October is the most wonderful time of the year for sports fans, and the Sports Equinox took place Thursday. It was the only day of the year so far with NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL games all on the same evening! We’ll get another few such evenings during the World Series, but Sunday is for football.

Or is it? This week’s slate is pretty rough. Thursday was ugly, and Sunday isn’t much better. We get our first Sunday morning London game in what could be an ugly Chargers-Titans battle, then slog through a lot of rough matchups where the under might be the best bet. The game of the day got moved into Sunday evening, but the rest of the day could be ugly. Remember how you promised to give your family a Sunday soon? This is your week.

Our picks have been struggling, under .500 two straight weeks and now just under .500 for the season, so I did something a little different this week in an effort to isolate the problem. I went back through six weeks of picks and tallied my record picking each team, included in parentheses below. I’m 6–0 picking Bengals games, but I’ve yet to pick a Bucs game right. Overall I’ve had good reads on the Bengals, Ravens, Jaguars, Texans, Patriots, and Giants but miserable reads on the Bucs, Titans, Lions, Redskins, and Falcons.

So what do we do with that information? Maybe you prefer to stay away from my leans on teams I haven’t had good reads on. I tried to look at those teams and figure out why the reads have been good or bad. The Ravens and Jaguars are defense-only teams and play well against a weak offense or poor line. The Patriots always play to their strengths. The Giants just suck. As for the poor reads, none of those teams really surprised me. I can’t figure out the Bucs or Titans, and Washington and Detroit just seem perfectly average and a little schizophrenic. Lessons learned … maybe. Let’s make some Week 7 picks.

The stay aways

Arizona (3–2–1) +1 vs Denver (2–4) on Thursday night

Oops. Got one thing right though: hope you watched something else instead.

Buffalo (4–2) +7.5 at Indianapolis (4–2)

Remember, these are not the records in parentheses; they’re my record picking them against the spread this season. But it’s the Bills and Colts, so you probably didn’t need the reminder. The Colts are 1–5 and are somehow more than a touchdown favorite. How did this happen? Both of these teams are better than you think, especially on defense, and Derek Anderson should have been out of the league five years ago — and let’s be honest, we all thought he was — but take the under and take the points.

Cleveland (2–2–2) +3.5 at Tampa Bay (0–5)

I was confident the Bucs would be absolutely terrible this season and then they came out and looked awesome the first two weeks and totally screwed me up, and I’ve yet to get one of their games right. Tampa’s offense is legit under Todd Monken, no matter who is under center, but their pass defense is historically bad. This game features two movable objects against two resistible forces. The Bucs can’t stop the pass but Cleveland’s receivers haven’t been producing. The Browns can’t stop the run but Tampa’s RBs have been pathetic. I still believe in Baker.

Los Angeles Rams (3–2–1) -9.5 at San Francisco (2–4)

This game got flexed out of Sunday Night Football, and we’re all better off for it. San Francisco has been surprisingly dominant against the Rams of late. The Rams have lost four of five and have only won five of the last 20 meetings. Los Angeles has three straight one-score wins, and San Francisco has been surprisingly frisky under C.J. Beathard. All signs point to a contested Rams win. So why pick the Rams to cover? Because the 49ers pass defense has allowed 14 TDs and just 1 interception, San Fran is on a short week, and Sean McVay is a fire-breathing dragon who will make them pay.

Wait, these games actually kinda matter

Tennessee (0–5–1) +6.5 vs Los Angeles Chargers (2–4) in London

Ohhhh Sunday morning. Doesn’t quite work, and neither does Sunday morning football in London. The terrible Titans are currently leading their division despite the fact that Tennessee’s leading passer has been under 130 yards in all but one game, while the Chargers are 4–2 with their only two losses against the Rams and Chiefs. The Titans defense has been pretty good, but their offensive line is struggling and could have its hands full with the Chargers pass rush. The Chargers love to let teams hang around, and the Titans love to dirty games up. Take the points, take the under, and skip this terrible game and go to church, you heathen.

Miami (2–4) +3 vs Detroit (1–3–1)

This line is wonky. It opened more than a touchdown in the other direction (Miami -4.5) before it was announced that Brock Osweiler would be starting for Ryan Tannehill. Listen, I hate Osweiler too but he did pretty well against a great Bears D last week and it’s not like Tannehill is any good. He’s a seven-point upgrade over Brock Lobster? I don’t buy it. Miami is 13–5 at home the last three seasons. Win this one and they somehow get to 5–2 and we get to start drooling over a chance to bet against them in January.

Dallas (2–2–2) -2 at Washington (1–4)

Somehow the winner of this one will be your NFC East division leader a third of the way through the season. Thanks for nothing, Eagles. Dallas and Washington both sport top ten defenses but never know what they’re going to get from the offense. It feels like the Cowboys pass rush could give Alex Smith happy feet, and Dallas looked like they found something in a blowout against the once vaunted Jaguars defense. Dallas has won 14 of 19 in this longtime rivalry. And yet again: take the under.

Hey look, some good games!!

Baltimore (4–1–1) -2.5 vs New Orleans (2–3)

The Saints offense was on fire heading into the bye, averaging almost 40 ppg their last three games. Baltimore’s defense has been even better. Outside of one awful quarter against Cincinnati, they’ve allowed only 53 points in their six games. They’re top three in both run and pass defense. The Saints are the league’s top run defense but can be beat over the top, a Joe Flacco specialty. Baltimore is a different team at home, and New Orleans is a different team on the road.

Carolina (2–3) +4.5 at Philadelphia (2–4)

The Eagles are 3–3 and only a half game out of the division lead, but do we really know much about this team yet? The three wins are against teams that are a combined 4–14 thus far. Philly’s run D is great, and that’s good news against Carolina. Both of these teams have played in a ton of close games so far. Each has had only one game with more than a one-score margin. Expect a close game that could come down to the final minutes in a key NFC battle, and take the points.

New England (4–2) -3 at Chicago (2–3)

The Super Bowl Shuffle Bears crushed the Patriots 46–10 in the Jan. 1986 Super Bowl, but the Pats have dominated ever since. New England has gone 7–1 against the Bears since that fateful day, and the Pats have scored almost 40 ppg their last three games in 2018. Chicago’s offense remains spotty and unpredictable outside of their huge Tampa game, and you and your grandma could put up 30 on the Bucs. Feels like the Pats control the clock with 50 short passes and tire the Chicago pass rush out.

The game of the week

Kansas City (3–2–1) -6 vs Cincinnati (6–0) on Sunday night

Holy cow, the Chiefs and Bengals are the Game of the Week, and better yet, it’s actually a pretty exciting game. Both teams lost last week to preseason AFC favorites, and suddenly a loser here will have fallen all the way back to the pack after such a good start. The Bengals have allowed the fourth most passing yards, and the Chiefs have allowed the most. Remember last Sunday night in Foxborough? Expect more of that, with plenty of offense and not much defense. I don’t quite believe in this Bengals team yet, but the Patrick Mahomes experience is the real deal. Chiefs win a big one at Arrowhead.

Week 7 best bets

Jacksonville (4–2) -4 vs Houston (5–1)

Remember a month ago when the Texans were 0–3 and the Jaguars were the talk of the league after a dominant win against the Patriots? Suddenly both teams are 3–3, the Jags are reeling after a beatdown in Dallas, and this game is for the division lead. A month ago it looked like Jacksonville might be a 10-point favorite, but now the line is 4. Houston might be on a three-game winning streak, but it’s three garbage wins against below average teams. The Jags didn’t show up mentally against Dallas. This defense was embarrassed and they’re going to respond in a big way against the worst offensive line in the league. Jags make a statement.

Minnesota (3–2–1) -3 at New York Jets (3–3)

This is another game where the line has moved a lot since the start of the season. The Jets have had some surprising scoring bursts en route to three wins while the Vikings have struggled to find their defense. In August, the Vikings would’ve been a 10-point favorite, but now it’s just a field goal. No matter. The Jets offense lacks punch, and they’re a bottom-10 defense and worst in the league against the slot where Vikings star Adam Thielen resides. Thielen keeps the 100-yard-game streak alive and the Vikes roll.

Atlanta (1–5) -4 vs New York Giants (4–2) on Monday night

What do we know about these teams? The Giants offense is an embarrassment and has crapped the bed on national television twice already with Captain Checkdown Elisha Manning. Atlanta’s defense has been almost as bad, and they’re going to struggle mightily with Saquon Barkley who has a legit chance to set the record for RB receptions in this game. But Atlanta is averaging 31 ppg since the opener, and they’re a different animal at home. Both these teams have been bad, but not the same kind of bad.

Week 6 record: 6–9 Season record: 44–45–4 Best bets: 8–7–2 Locks: 2–0

Last season: 130–116–11 Best bets: 29–20–1 Locks: 2–1

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