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Abstract

ff a short week after a Monday night beatdown in New Orleans. Carolina doesn’t normally beat teams over the top like Brees did, but Cam Newton has the arm and this team has the speed for it. Honestly I’m not entirely sure why the much better team is the underdog in this game. Carolina seems better at … pretty much everything.</p><h2 id="b991">Chicago -3 at Miami</h2><p id="4763">The Dolphins have been exposed by the Patriots and Bengals the last two weeks, and 3–0 seems long ago now. The Bears are coming off a bye week and remain <a href="https://readmedium.com/quarter-season-nfl-power-rankings-rams-chiefs-bears-eagles-jaguars-titans-vikings-patriots-football-c053acad1a7d">my third best team in the NFL</a>. I’m not ready to take Mitch Trubisky on the road as a best bet yet, but we can trust this defense against a Miami team that scores most of their points with smoke and mirrors.</p><div id="47f4" class="link-block"> <a href="https://movietime.guru/what-to-watch-this-fall-15-new-tv-shows-manifest-new-amsterdam-god-friended-me-television-cbs-abc-fox-nbc-6e8835f9b5d9"> <div> <div> <h2>What to Watch This Fall: 15 New TV Shows (and 5 Returning Hits)</h2> <div><h3>A new high school football drama hit, another Lost, two attempts at This Is Us, and God Friended Me actually works!</h3></div> <div><p></p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*3P1nLNHys-VZj3CIkbsjqw.png)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><h1 id="417c">Tough division coin flips</h1><h2 id="c847">Tampa Bay +3.5 at Atlanta</h2><p id="16f3">It’s the grand re-unveiling of Jameis Winston, the player <a href="https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-football-streaming-qbs-week-6-2018">Pro Football Focus graded</a> as the best player in the NFL this preseason. This Todd Monken offense attacks downfield with the passing game relentlessly, and I believe it was the scheme that lit the NFL on fire the first few weeks and not Ryan Fitzpatrick. Winston is the more talented player and I think the fireworks continue. Tampa had a full two weeks to install Winston into the offense, and he’ll face just as soft a defense Sunday as he’s faced in practice all week. The road team has won five of the last seven in this series. Take the over.</p><h2 id="effa">Pittsburgh +1.5 at Cincinnati</h2><p id="4ca7">Everything has gone wrong for the Steelers but this is a chance to flip the season since a road win pulls them within a half a game of the Bengals despite everything. Cincinnati has been the far better team in 2018, but history favors the Steelers. Pittsburgh has won 19 of 24 against the Bengals, including the last six games and the last five in Cincinnati. Road Ben isn’t a problem in Ohio, where Roethlisberger is 31–5–1 lifetime in his home state. Cincinnati has faced only one top offense, and they got lit up by Matt Ryan to the tune of 419 yards and three TDs. This is Pittsburgh’s chance to save the division title.</p><h2 id="131a">Seattle -3 “at” Oakland (London)</h2><p id="374f">Okay fine, this isn’t a division rivalry anymore, and it isn’t actually a road game either. It’s our first trip to London this year, which probably means it’s irrelevant that the home team has won the last 11 games in this series. I was very close to picking the Raiders here based only on weird London results and a monster Marshawn Lynch revenge game against a bottom-five Seattle run defense, but Lynch is questionable with hip and shoulder injuries and I’m not sure if they have Skittles in London.</p><div id="3c36" class="link-block"> <a href="https://readmedium.com/2018-opening-day-nfl-quarterback-rankings-peterman-bortles-darnold-mahomes-luck-brees-brady-rodgers-4ebd152118ae"> <div> <div> <h2>The 2018 opening day NFL quarterback rankings</h2> <div><h3>Breaking down all 32 starters, from Peterman to Rodgers</h3></div> <div><p></p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*hwOtdkEtATnU8jDdEcapTA.jpeg)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><h1 id="5c43">Wait, the line is WHAT?!</h1><h2 id="a267">Green Bay -9.5 vs San Francisco (Monday night)</h2><p id="4708">This section represents the three games I was furthest off on the lines, and I was off by four points on this one. I thought the Packers would be monster favorites, but as I studied these teams, only the more meager line has me on Green Bay’s side. The Packers have really only played three good halves, and Aaron Rodgers is just 6–8 lifetime on Monday night. The entire 49ers offense is hurt, but they’re still moving the ball and scoring anyway. Do you realize the C.J. Beathard and

Options

George Kittle 49ers are scoring more points than the Rodgers Packers this season? It’s true. Kyle Shanahan’s scheme is producing, and there’s huge backdoor cover potential here, but I can’t pick against the best QB in football at home under the Monday night lights.</p><h2 id="6a20">Tennessee +3 vs Baltimore</h2><p id="58ae">No team has befuddled me more than the Titans this season, so it’s appropriate that they’re playing my 2017 bugaboo, the Ravens. I had the Titans as 2.5-point favorites, but Vegas is not a believer. This looks like an ugly defensive battle between two tough old school teams that always beat each other up. Seven of the last ten matchups have been tight one-score games, and they’re usually defensive battles as 15 of 20 times in those games a team has scored 20 or fewer points. I don’t understand either of these teams, so I’m taking the under and the points and expecting something like a 17–16 game.</p><h2 id="eac7">Kansas City +3.5 at New England (Sunday night)</h2><p id="5251">Holy cow, that is a <i>lot</i> of respect for Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. The Chiefs are 5–0 and averaging 35 ppg. The Pats are 3–2 and haven’t proven much yet against anyone real. The Chiefs thumped the Jaguars by 16; the Patriots lost to Jacksonville by double digits. Kansas City trounced New England in the opener last season and crushed them by even more in 2015. Yes, Belichick has had 10 days to prep for Patrick Mahomes but his team didn’t have the speed to hang with them last year and it’s not like he can magically create linebackers and corners. This is a huge game. The Chiefs can practically clinch the AFC 1-seed with a win. It feels like the Pats always find a way in these games. But Kansas City is just way better right now, so yeah, we’re picking against Tom and Bill at home and I’m going to have to learn my lesson. For the record, I would’ve set the line at Chiefs -3 so I was off by almost a full touchdown.</p><div id="e342" class="link-block"> <a href="https://readmedium.com/which-winless-nfl-team-will-still-make-the-playoffs-0-2-football-2018-texans-seahawks-giants-749f5cbf1419"> <div> <div> <h2>Which 0–2 NFL team will still make the playoffs?</h2> <div><h3>Could the Seahawks, Giants, or Texans turn things around and make a playoff run?</h3></div> <div><p></p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*sKukVCTNt7uyaYQ1m1SA-A.jpeg)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><h1 id="e5ff">Week 6 best bets</h1><h2 id="d21f">Philadelphia -2.5 at New York Giants (Thursday night)</h2><p id="cb9e">The Eagles are 2–3 with a negative point differential, but I still think this line is ludicrous. The Giants are terrible, led by Captain Dump-off Eli Manning. This Philly secondary offense can be beat, but will Manning even have the ball long enough to find Odell Beckham? OBJ and Saquon Barkley are really good, but I’ll take Philadelphia against the other 51 guys on the Giants roster. The Eagles have won eight of nine against the Giants, though the G-Men have kept the last five within one score. Carson Wentz will find a way.</p><h2 id="5f6f">Minnesota -9.5 vs Arizona</h2><p id="12a1">This is a get-right game for the Vikings after a huge win against the Eagles. The Cardinals are scoring only 13 ppg, and Josh Rosen isn’t making the right reads and isn’t ready for a defense of this caliber. Minnesota’s defense gets back on track and the Vikings roll.</p><h2 id="c3b4">Jacksonville -2.5 at Dallas</h2><p id="8951">Blake Bortles on the road as a best bet? This may not end well. But unless Bortles beats the Jags himself — and he very well might — the Jacksonville defense should do enough. I just don’t see any way Dallas moves the ball against this team. Can Ezekiel Elliott have 40 carries? Even that might not be enough. We’re betting hard on a return to normalcy in the NFC East this week.</p><h2 id="19be">Week 5 record: 6–8–1 Season record: 38–36–4 Best bets: 6–6–2 Locks: 2–0</h2><h2 id="4a3f">Last season: 130–116–11 Best bets: 29–20–1 Locks: 2–1</h2><p id="5807"><i>Follow Brandon on Medium or <a href="https://twitter.com/wheatonbrando">@wheatonbrando</a> for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s <a href="https://readmedium.com/brandon-anderson-writing-archives-6b3ee1a29301#.6cteu050v">writing archives here</a>.</i></p><figure id="3b76"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*YnbtD8IipCsqVjNwkjtY8w.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure id="2ba5"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*d318hSQDEA-NP2sgKkTINw.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure id="0963"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*jwbMPAfFsxT_PGFz7US69Q.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure></article></body>

Week 6 NFL picks against the spread

It’s Road Week in the NFL as we pick 11 of 15 road teams against the spread, with Eagles, Vikings, and Jaguars best bets

One thing I do every week in preparation for this column is to guess the Vegas point-spread lines before looking them up. I’ve gotten increasingly better at this over the couple years, and this week was my best ever — I guessed nine of the 15 lines exactly right or within a point. That’s great! … for my little guessing game. It’s not so good for picking the games this week. Part of the reason I guess the lines is because it gives me my first read when I compare my lines to the real ones and see that Vegas is three points off what I think it ought to be. This week I think Vegas got most of these lines right on.

And it looks like Road Week in the NFL, as I talked myself into road pick after road pick across the Week 6 slate. That includes six road underdogs, and it means betting on Blake Bortles, Mitchell Trubisky, and Josh Allen on the road. I took 11 of 15 road teams in all. This could go very badly.

We’re struggling to get into a groove, floating right around .500 on our season picks (38–36–4) and best bets (6–6–2). Let’s hit the road and right the ship.…

Week 5 NFL picks against the spread

A wild Sunday of football awaits with 12 spreads under a TD! Picks for every game, with Packers and Titans best bets

The stay aways

Indianapolis +3 at New York Jets

The Colts are 1–4 and already forgotten, but they have a chance to right the ship with the Jets, Bills, and Raiders on tap. They’ve actually had an improved defense and taken the Bengals, Eagles, and Patriots into the 4th quarter, and Andrew Luck is playing well again. The back part of the schedule is very winnable if Indianapolis can get started with a win here.

Buffalo +10.5 at Houston

Look, the Texans had two overtime wins handed to them after a 10-game losing streak. Houston shouldn’t be favored by double digits against anyone, and just to be clear, Buffalo is anyone, even if barely. Josh Allen and the points on the road? Josh Allen and the points on the road!

Cleveland +1 vs Los Angeles Chargers

We don’t really know much about the 3–2 Chargers yet. The three wins are against the Bills, 49ers, and Raiders, and the two losses are against the Chiefs and Rams. It’s time they play someone in the middle with their first real road trip (Buffalo doesn’t count). The Browns are 4–1 against the spread and could be 5–0 in real life with some luck and a real coaching staff. They haven’t won consecutive games since November 6, 2014, a day on which the headline news was Starbucks bringing back an eggnog latte after outcries from angry customers. Simpler times.

The quarter season NFL power rankings

If all 32 NFL teams played a single-elimination tournament right now, who win? We rank the teams 1 to 32

The trusted road favorites

Los Angeles Rams -7 at Denver

Denver started 2–0 with comeback wins over the Seahawks and Raiders, but they’ve lost three in a row since and got gashed by the Jets (?!) run game last week. They just might not be good. The Rams? They’re good. They won me over with a man’s win on the road in Seattle last week, and now only road trips to New Orleans and Chicago and a Monday Night game against the Chiefs in Mexico City stand in the way of 16–0.

Carolina +1 at Washington

Both these teams already had their bye, but Washington is coming off a short week after a Monday night beatdown in New Orleans. Carolina doesn’t normally beat teams over the top like Brees did, but Cam Newton has the arm and this team has the speed for it. Honestly I’m not entirely sure why the much better team is the underdog in this game. Carolina seems better at … pretty much everything.

Chicago -3 at Miami

The Dolphins have been exposed by the Patriots and Bengals the last two weeks, and 3–0 seems long ago now. The Bears are coming off a bye week and remain my third best team in the NFL. I’m not ready to take Mitch Trubisky on the road as a best bet yet, but we can trust this defense against a Miami team that scores most of their points with smoke and mirrors.

What to Watch This Fall: 15 New TV Shows (and 5 Returning Hits)

A new high school football drama hit, another Lost, two attempts at This Is Us, and God Friended Me actually works!

Tough division coin flips

Tampa Bay +3.5 at Atlanta

It’s the grand re-unveiling of Jameis Winston, the player Pro Football Focus graded as the best player in the NFL this preseason. This Todd Monken offense attacks downfield with the passing game relentlessly, and I believe it was the scheme that lit the NFL on fire the first few weeks and not Ryan Fitzpatrick. Winston is the more talented player and I think the fireworks continue. Tampa had a full two weeks to install Winston into the offense, and he’ll face just as soft a defense Sunday as he’s faced in practice all week. The road team has won five of the last seven in this series. Take the over.

Pittsburgh +1.5 at Cincinnati

Everything has gone wrong for the Steelers but this is a chance to flip the season since a road win pulls them within a half a game of the Bengals despite everything. Cincinnati has been the far better team in 2018, but history favors the Steelers. Pittsburgh has won 19 of 24 against the Bengals, including the last six games and the last five in Cincinnati. Road Ben isn’t a problem in Ohio, where Roethlisberger is 31–5–1 lifetime in his home state. Cincinnati has faced only one top offense, and they got lit up by Matt Ryan to the tune of 419 yards and three TDs. This is Pittsburgh’s chance to save the division title.

Seattle -3 “at” Oakland (London)

Okay fine, this isn’t a division rivalry anymore, and it isn’t actually a road game either. It’s our first trip to London this year, which probably means it’s irrelevant that the home team has won the last 11 games in this series. I was very close to picking the Raiders here based only on weird London results and a monster Marshawn Lynch revenge game against a bottom-five Seattle run defense, but Lynch is questionable with hip and shoulder injuries and I’m not sure if they have Skittles in London.

The 2018 opening day NFL quarterback rankings

Breaking down all 32 starters, from Peterman to Rodgers

Wait, the line is WHAT?!

Green Bay -9.5 vs San Francisco (Monday night)

This section represents the three games I was furthest off on the lines, and I was off by four points on this one. I thought the Packers would be monster favorites, but as I studied these teams, only the more meager line has me on Green Bay’s side. The Packers have really only played three good halves, and Aaron Rodgers is just 6–8 lifetime on Monday night. The entire 49ers offense is hurt, but they’re still moving the ball and scoring anyway. Do you realize the C.J. Beathard and George Kittle 49ers are scoring more points than the Rodgers Packers this season? It’s true. Kyle Shanahan’s scheme is producing, and there’s huge backdoor cover potential here, but I can’t pick against the best QB in football at home under the Monday night lights.

Tennessee +3 vs Baltimore

No team has befuddled me more than the Titans this season, so it’s appropriate that they’re playing my 2017 bugaboo, the Ravens. I had the Titans as 2.5-point favorites, but Vegas is not a believer. This looks like an ugly defensive battle between two tough old school teams that always beat each other up. Seven of the last ten matchups have been tight one-score games, and they’re usually defensive battles as 15 of 20 times in those games a team has scored 20 or fewer points. I don’t understand either of these teams, so I’m taking the under and the points and expecting something like a 17–16 game.

Kansas City +3.5 at New England (Sunday night)

Holy cow, that is a lot of respect for Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. The Chiefs are 5–0 and averaging 35 ppg. The Pats are 3–2 and haven’t proven much yet against anyone real. The Chiefs thumped the Jaguars by 16; the Patriots lost to Jacksonville by double digits. Kansas City trounced New England in the opener last season and crushed them by even more in 2015. Yes, Belichick has had 10 days to prep for Patrick Mahomes but his team didn’t have the speed to hang with them last year and it’s not like he can magically create linebackers and corners. This is a huge game. The Chiefs can practically clinch the AFC 1-seed with a win. It feels like the Pats always find a way in these games. But Kansas City is just way better right now, so yeah, we’re picking against Tom and Bill at home and I’m going to have to learn my lesson. For the record, I would’ve set the line at Chiefs -3 so I was off by almost a full touchdown.

Which 0–2 NFL team will still make the playoffs?

Could the Seahawks, Giants, or Texans turn things around and make a playoff run?

Week 6 best bets

Philadelphia -2.5 at New York Giants (Thursday night)

The Eagles are 2–3 with a negative point differential, but I still think this line is ludicrous. The Giants are terrible, led by Captain Dump-off Eli Manning. This Philly secondary offense can be beat, but will Manning even have the ball long enough to find Odell Beckham? OBJ and Saquon Barkley are really good, but I’ll take Philadelphia against the other 51 guys on the Giants roster. The Eagles have won eight of nine against the Giants, though the G-Men have kept the last five within one score. Carson Wentz will find a way.

Minnesota -9.5 vs Arizona

This is a get-right game for the Vikings after a huge win against the Eagles. The Cardinals are scoring only 13 ppg, and Josh Rosen isn’t making the right reads and isn’t ready for a defense of this caliber. Minnesota’s defense gets back on track and the Vikings roll.

Jacksonville -2.5 at Dallas

Blake Bortles on the road as a best bet? This may not end well. But unless Bortles beats the Jags himself — and he very well might — the Jacksonville defense should do enough. I just don’t see any way Dallas moves the ball against this team. Can Ezekiel Elliott have 40 carries? Even that might not be enough. We’re betting hard on a return to normalcy in the NFC East this week.

Week 5 record: 6–8–1 Season record: 38–36–4 Best bets: 6–6–2 Locks: 2–0

Last season: 130–116–11 Best bets: 29–20–1 Locks: 2–1

Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.