Which 0–2 NFL team will still make the playoffs?

Forget about the Bills, but could the Seahawks, Giants, or Texans turn things around and make a playoff run?

Twelve percent.

Just twelve percent of NFL teams that start the season 0–2 rebound to make the playoffs. That’s one in every eight or nine teams. Last year the Saints rebounded from 0–2 to become a Super Bowl favorite. In 2016 Miami turned 0–2 into a playoff run. Seattle and Houston did it in 2015, and Indianapolis and Carolina the two years before that. That’s five straight seasons at least one 0–2 team has made the NFL playoffs. Things may look bad now, but history tells us a couple of these teams will turn things around.

So which 0–2 team could still make a playoff run? You may need to use your imagination. Is there a key player that could help flip the script? Does the team play in a winnable division or in the inferior AFC where Wild Card spots are more freely available? Does the schedule open up going forward? Making the playoffs after an 0–2 start is not about what is but what could be.

Nope, no way, not happening …

9. Buffalo Bills

Come on. The Bills are a disaster. Both of their games have been over at halftime, and now they head to Minnesota and Green Bay so it’s about to get worse. The defense is awful, the offensive line is worse, and the only good player on offense is injured and awaiting a suspension. Add the worst starting quarterback in the league in rookie Josh Allen and this ain’t happening. Buffalo is in pole position for the #1 pick.

8. Arizona Cardinals

The Cards have been even worse. Arizona has been outscored 58–6. The entire team has scored 10% as many touchdowns as Patrick Mahomes. In Week 1, the Cards had only five first downs in the first three quarters (before garbage time). In Week 2, they had just three. That’s eight first downs in six quarters of meaningful game time: fewer first downs than Ryan Fitzpatrick touchdowns. Arizona has a few stars and the variable of first-round QB Josh Rosen, but a tough division and conference leave little room for hope.

Maaaybe if you squint hard enough

7. Detroit Lions

The Lions are one of the more talented teams on the list, but the path looks difficult. The division already feels out of reach. The Packers-Vikings tie was a worst-case scenario for Detroit since it effectively gave each favorite a half-win. For the Lions to win the NFC North, they’d need to finish 9–5 and have both Green Bay and Minnesota go 7–7 or worse, and that’s too unlikely. That leaves a Wild Card spot in the loaded NFC, where it probably takes 10 wins. Can this team go 10–4 with six games against a stacked division? Stafford and the offense have the juice but haven’t gotten going, and the defense has been gashed by Isaiah Crowell, Matt Breida, and Quincy Enunwa. Not happening.

6. Oakland Raiders

The Raiders have quickly become one of the NFL’s punchlines with the Khalil Mack trade looking historically bad and Jon Gruden a decade behind the league. If you’ve read anything I’ve written about the NFL, you know how little I think of Oakland this season. It’s a minor miracle they beat three teams on this list but simply an acknowledgement of a soft schedule. Oakland has played a good half twice and could get to 2–2 with the Dolphins and Browns up next. They have four games left against other winless teams. Add that to a Charmin-soft AFC Wild Card picture, and there’s at least a path.

5. New York Giants

I wanted to pick the Giants as a preseason sleeper, and I wanted to pick them as the 0–2 team to turn it around, but they fall short for the same reasons. New York is only one game out of the division, which puts them closer to the playoffs than anyone else on this list. Dallas can’t move the ball, Washington couldn’t score a TD at home against Indy, and Philly has no idea what they’re getting from Carson Wentz. The division is there for the taking. But the Giants don’t have the offense or the schedule to take it. It’s easy to see Eli, Saquon, and Odell and believe, but Manning hasn’t been good for half a decade and Barkley has a 2.4 YPC outside of one long scamper. The Giants line isn’t giving the offense a chance even with its marquee names.

And then there’s the remaining schedule: Texans, Saints, Panthers, Eagles, Falcons, Skins, Niners, Bucs, Eagles, Bears, Skins, Titans, Colts, Cowboys. There’s no easy win in the mix, not a single winless opponent. The Giants could beat any of those teams, but they could also be winless into November and an underdog every game. The offense isn’t as bad as it looks since it’s faced tough Jaguars and Cowboys defenses, but it’s not good enough either. Nine wins could take the NFC East, but can the Giants win 9 of those 14 games? Another 3–13 year sure feels more likely.

The technically winless teams

4. Cleveland Browns

Do the Browns and Steelers qualify for the 0–2 stat? Probably not, but we’re considering them anyway since they’re both winless.

Cleveland is better than you think, particularly on defense. They allowed only 42 points to the Steelers and Saints, whose players topped every fantasy draft, with a dominant line that’s getting to the QB and tallying sacks and turnovers. The Browns are two Zane Gonzalez plays away from a shock 2–0 start and the talk of the NFL. Of course, the offense has been miserable. They’ve advanced 20 yards or fewer on 18 of 31 drives and needed miracles both games just to put themselves in position to blow it. With the Browns, the glass isn’t really half-full or half-empty, it’s glass half-WTF, glass half-nihilist-is-there-even-a-glass-what-is-the-meaning-of-life-why-am-I-rooting-for-the-Browns.

The schedule looks doable. The Jets, Raiders, and Ravens are next, and the closing stretch includes the Texans, Panthers, Broncos, Ravens, and Bengals (x2). Assuming Baker Mayfield is playing, wouldn’t it be fun for the Browns to close out the season 5–1 or 6–0 and make a run? Cincinnati is the league’s worst division leader, and Cleveland’s tied with the real division favorite.

Listen, we did this exercise last year, and I talked myself into picking the 0–2 Browns to make the playoffs, and then they proceeded to lose their next 14 games. Fool me twice, etc. Cleveland has won 2 of its last 37 games, and we need them to win 9 of 14. Can’t get there.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers

I can’t tell you how badly I wanted to rank the Browns ahead of the Steelers. Just because, you know? The last time Pittsburgh went winless its first two games, they finished 8–8 and missed the playoffs. The defense has been poor, and the offense has been sloppy. The LeVeon Bell situation is already ugly, and now Antonio Brown has been grumbling, too. It smells like something is rotten in Pittsburgh, even more than just the usual city smell.

And then you look at the schedule. A Monday night trip to Tampa this week that seemed a freebie two weeks ago suddenly looks tricky, and then it’s the Ravens and Falcons. Pittsburgh still faces the entire NFC South, Jaguars, Patriots, Chargers, a road trip to Denver, and two Ravens rivalry games. That’s 10 of the 14 games. The Steelers have five left against unbeaten teams, and that’s not even counting the Pats, Saints, Falcons or Chargers. Those games help Pittsburgh control its destiny and they certainly have the talent, but it’ll be an uphill battle. They may just need to go 5–0 in the remaining division games and hope 9–6–1 is enough.

Can Pittsburgh go 9–5 against that schedule? Everyone expected them to two weeks ago. Pittsburgh is still the AFC North betting favorite, but they’ve dug a real hole. It’s time to seriously consider that they may miss the playoffs.

So you’re telling me there’s a chance …

2. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are one of only two teams yet to play at home. Seattle’s home this week where they’re always tough, and they don’t have to leave the West Coast again until almost November. In fact, they only leave the West Coast twice the rest of the season. This team might be about to get comfortable. The teams on the schedule won’t hurt either. The Cowboys and Cardinals are next before a Week 5 home game against the Rams, then the Raiders and Lions. They could easily get to 4–3 or 5–2, and Seattle’s playoffs hopes likely ride on its division chances so that Rams game is a chance to flip the entire season.

Seattle’s offense has struggled, but it’s not as bad as it looks after two tough road games in Denver and Chicago without their best receiver. Doug Baldwin should be back soon, and there’s no better combo on this list than Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll. Seattle’s defense has actually been good, but the offense is letting the team down, especially the line. It’ll have to be much better. Seattle is no stranger to slow starts, but Wilson has never won fewer than nine games. Seattle is 20–1 to win the NFC West. They may need to sweep the division to earn a playoff spot.

1. Houston Texans

The Texans are the other team without a home game yet. Houston lost the toughest game on its schedule in New England, and they may rue an ugly loss to Blaine Gabbert and the Titans but also showed signs of life. Deshaun Watson finally got things going in the second half before a mental breakdown blew Houston’s chances, and the defense has been tough, allowing only three real touchdown drives in two games.

Even an optimistic Houston fan may have hoped for 1–1 to start the season with road trips against two playoff teams as Watson and J.J. Watt returned from injury. Watson is starting to get things going, and he should continue to get healthier and better as the year goes on. Watt and the other star defenders haven’t recorded a single Texans sack, but the talent is there. Houston is still learning how the pieces fit, and if they can avoid big injuries, they should only improve as the year goes on.

The schedule was always going to portend a rocky start, but now it bends in Houston’s favor. The Giants, Colts, Cowboys, and Bills are next, so Houston could rebound to 3–3 or 4–2. The next stretch against the Jaguars, Dolphins, and Broncos will be key. Each team is 2–0, and any win in that stretch is also a loss for a playoff contender. Then it’s five more winnable games against the Skins, Titans, Browns, Colts, and Jets. If they win four of those and grab a key win or two in that middle stretch, Houston could suddenly be something like 9–5 with two games left. Nine wins might be enough for an AFC Wild Card, and if it’s not, Houston will host Jacksonville in the season finale. If they can keep within shouting distance, that could be for the division crown. The Houston Texans are this year’s 0–2 team to flip the script and make the playoffs.

Bonus Thursday night pick

Cleveland -3 vs New York Jets

The Browns haven’t won since Christmas Eve 2016, in a game that featured Robert Griffin III and the San Diego Chargers. Their last win before that was December 13, 2015. That’s one win in the last 1,011 days. Yet the Browns are favored for only the second time since then, and we’re taking them anyway. Cleveland is 2–0 against the 2018 spread, and this defense is for real. They’re going to give Sam Darnold problems. Cleveland is just more talented at almost every position. Time to go get that W.

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