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d, and they’re already missing three of their best four defenders. They’re just going to have to put up a ton of points.</p><h2 id="f6cc">Cleveland +3 at Oakland</h2><p id="afe5">Sorry, these teams are not equal. The Raiders have blown three halftime leads and Derek Carr is tallying up yards, but this is about Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland defense. The Browns D has been blowing offenses up, and Baker looked like the real deal, so yeah, you’re darn right I’m picking him to win his first road start. Ride the wave!</p><div id="7023" class="link-block"> <a href="https://readmedium.com/which-winless-nfl-team-will-still-make-the-playoffs-0-2-football-2018-texans-seahawks-giants-749f5cbf1419"> <div> <div> <h2>Which 0–2 NFL team will still make the playoffs?</h2> <div><h3>Could the Seahawks, Giants, or Texans turn things around and make a playoff run?</h3></div> <div><p></p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*sKukVCTNt7uyaYQ1m1SA-A.jpeg)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><h1 id="9f18">The heavy home favorites</h1><h2 id="e603">Jacksonville -7.5 vs New York Jets</h2><p id="9e27">Sam Darnold on the road against this nasty defense? No thank you. Plus it looks like Leonard Fournette may be back and take some of the pressure off Blake Bortles, so that’s always a good thing.</p><h2 id="0a33">Green Bay -9.5 vs Buffalo</h2><p id="c7e2">On the one hand, this is a shocking line because Green Bay just lost its best defender for the season and is a couple plays away from being 0–3. On the other hand, screw you Buffalo, and I’m not going away from the Josh-Allen-sucks train based on one lucky game when everything went right.</p><h2 id="1b9d">Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 vs San Francisco</h2><p id="23a5">The 49ers were <a href="https://readmedium.com/who-is-this-years-worst-to-first-nfl-team-8151c2cf65b">my last-to-first pick</a>, but this feels like a lost season with Jimmy Garoppolo’s torn ACL. They already lost Jerick McKinnon for the season, Matt Breida and Marquise Goodwin are banged up, and now Richard Sherman will be out a few weeks. This was not the most talented 49ers team, and the few strengths they had have been cleared out. San Francisco is soon to be on prime time four of five weeks. Yikes. The Chargers are 1–2 but the two losses are to the league’s hottest teams, the Chiefs and Rams. This is a gift chance to right the ship.</p><div id="2a06" class="link-block"> <a href="https://movietime.guru/what-to-watch-this-fall-15-new-tv-shows-manifest-new-amsterdam-god-friended-me-television-cbs-abc-fox-nbc-6e8835f9b5d9"> <div> <div> <h2>What to Watch This Fall: 15 New TV Shows (and 5 Returning Hits)</h2> <div><h3>A new high school football drama hit, another Lost, two attempts at This Is Us, and God Friended Me actually works!</h3></div> <div><p></p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*3P1nLNHys-VZj3CIkbsjqw.png)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><h1 id="6c86">Huge AFC divisional battles</h1><h2 id="233a">Pittsburgh -3 vs Baltimore (Sunday night)</h2><p id="c700">This rivalry is a classic, and five of the last six matchups have been decided by one score. Baltimore has had the league’s #1 defense by yardage, but who have they done it against? They were good at home against Nathan Peterman and Case Keenum and bad in Cincinnati. This feels like the week they’ll miss Jimmy Smith and C.J. Mosley. Baltimore is embarking on a three game trip to Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Tennessee. If they lose all three and can’t get the offense moving, could this be the end for Joe Flacco? It no longer looks like the end for Pittsburgh. Vance McDonald’s stiff arm saved their season.</p><h2 id="007c">Denver +5 vs Kansas City</h2><p id="78cf">I was all set to not bet against this Chiefs offense until proven otherwise. Kansas City has scored on 18 of 23 meaningful drives this season with 15 touchdowns, and they’ve hit at least 38 points every game. They’ve also won five in a row against the Broncos. But the two in Denver came on the game’s final play, and the Broncos are 20–10 against the spread as home underdogs since 1991. Case Keenum can put up points on this defense. Vegas is begging us to take the Broncos, and I’m going to let them.</p><h2 id="418d">New England -6.5 vs Miami</h2><p id="218b">It’s pretty funny for a 1–2 team to be a touchdown favorite against one that’s 3–0, but that’s the Pats and Dolphins. Miami may be undefeated, but their wins are against the Jets and Raiders and in a monsoon with the Titans. The home team has won 10 of the last 11 games in this rivalry, and only two of the last 16 have been within seven points. The Fins are

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awful at Foxborough, and this line would’ve been double digits a week ago.</p><h2 id="11a1">Houston +1.5 at Indianapolis</h2><p id="6cd4">Maybe this doesn’t fit with the other AFC divisional games, but it does feel like an elimination game in the AFC South. Seven of the last eight matchups have been one-score games, so it may come down to which quarterback you trust. Houston is winless, but their three losses are by one score each and 15 points total, and J.J. Watt recorded three sacks last week and could terrorize this Colts line. I still believe in the Texans, but this is their last chance.</p><div id="388e" class="link-block"> <a href="https://readmedium.com/2018-opening-day-nfl-quarterback-rankings-peterman-bortles-darnold-mahomes-luck-brees-brady-rodgers-4ebd152118ae"> <div> <div> <h2>The 2018 opening day NFL quarterback rankings</h2> <div><h3>Breaking down all 32 starters, from Peterman to Rodgers</h3></div> <div><p></p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*hwOtdkEtATnU8jDdEcapTA.jpeg)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><h1 id="2656">The game of the week … wait, what?</h1><h2 id="4207">Tampa Bay +3 at Chicago</h2><p id="4321">Who could have imagined a month ago that this would be Sunday’s marquee game? Both teams head into the bye, and one of them will be 3–1 and a shock NFC favorite. This is an old division rivalry and the teams split the last ten, with the road team winning five of them. This is all about matchups. Tampa’s defensive front seven is legit but their secondary is terrible, so you beat them with the pass like Pittsburgh. But Trubisky has 9 passing TDs in 15 starts which is almost a full season. I don’t believe he can beat this Bucs D, and after seeing the Todd Monken offense Monday night, I think Tampa is going to score points on anyone. Khalil Mack can’t do it all on his own this week.</p><h1 id="d4ec">Week 4 best bets</h1><h2 id="10cc">Dallas -2 vs Detroit</h2><p id="eefe">Welp, can’t say I expected to pick the Cowboys as a best bet anytime this season, but here we are. Dallas’s defense has been up to the task, but Dak Prescott and the passing game have not. That shouldn’t matter against an awful Lions run defense. Just give the ball to Zeke 40 times.</p><h2 id="f4c2">New Orleans +3 at New York Giants</h2><p id="561c">All six Giants and Saints games this season have played have been one-score finishes, and neither secondary is getting the job done. That’s going to be a much bigger problem against Drew Brees than Eli Manning. New Orleans can throw Marshon Lattimore at Odell Beckham Jr. and let the pass rush do the rest against a struggling offensive line. Even if the Giants somehow get way ahead, is there any reason to trust this defense against Brees?</p><h2 id="95ee">Seattle +3 at Arizona</h2><p id="2d3f">This looks like found money. A Pete Carroll defense against a rookie quarterback making his first start? This may not be the Legion of Boom, but Josh Rosen did not look even remotely ready in the preseason, and he’s not ready for Earl Thomas. The home team hasn’t won this divisional rivalry in the last seven meetings. Let’s make it eight and lock in a suddenly resurgent Seahawks team with the Rams coming to down next Sunday.</p><div id="9892" class="link-block"> <a href="https://94feetreport.com/every-possible-jimmy-butler-trade-and-four-best-fits-nba-minnesota-timberwolves-toronto-miami-philadelphia-a07be7b7085c"> <div> <div> <h2>Every Possible Jimmy Butler Trade — and Four that Actually Work</h2> <div><h3>Why Philadelphia, Miami, or Toronto makes the most sense</h3></div> <div><p></p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*pqUD7vV-H55dv3GoJDs7tg.jpeg)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><h2 id="c3e3">Week 3 record: 9–7 Season record: 25–23 Best bets: 4–4 Locks: 1–0</h2><h2 id="4a3f">Last season: 130–116–11 Best bets: 29–20–1 Locks: 2–1</h2><p id="6b9e"><i>Follow Brandon on Medium or <a href="https://twitter.com/wheatonbrando">@wheatonbrando</a> for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s <a href="https://readmedium.com/brandon-anderson-writing-archives-6b3ee1a29301#.6cteu050v">writing archives here</a>.</i></p><figure id="3b76"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*YnbtD8IipCsqVjNwkjtY8w.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure id="2ba5"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*d318hSQDEA-NP2sgKkTINw.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure id="0963"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*jwbMPAfFsxT_PGFz7US69Q.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure></article></body>

Week 4 NFL picks against the spread

The NFL is getting weird and bye weeks are here. Picks for all 15 games with Seahawks, Saints, and Cowboys best bets.

Kitchen Sink Week was a roaring success. Nine teams entered Week 3 winless. Two of those teams faced each other. The other seven went 6–1 against the spread, with the Bills and Lions winning outright as huge underdogs. It was one of those wonky NFL weeks where nothing makes sense. The Cleveland Browns got first win in 635 days and all hell broke loose.

Unfortunately, I forgot the Steelers were winless and stupidly picked a best bet against the Lions on Kitchen Sink Week, so we went just 4–3 in Kitchen Sink games. Oops. It’s been a struggle so far with a 25–23 record, but we’re hanging in there. The results have been pretty weird, and the lines are starting to catch up. Are the Dolphins, Bucs, and Titans actually good? Is the season on the brink for the Vikings, Patriots, and Packers?

The Panthers and Redskins are home watching, but there’s 15 other games to pick and these bye weeks got me thinking of Rose Royce.

Ooh you might never get rich, but let me tell you it’s better than digging a ditch … at the CAR-WASH … talking about the CAR-WASH, yeah.

Week 3 NFL picks against the spread

It’s Kitchen Sink Week with seven 0–2 teams backed up against the wall, with picks for every Week 3 game

Thursday night

Minnesota +7 at Los Angeles Rams

Holy crap, an awesome Thursday night game! It’s the last good one until December 13th, even if the luster is off a bit after Minnesota laid an egg against the Bills. Look, I’m a Minnesota sports fan and it’s been a rough couple weeks (okay fine, a rough couple decades). The Vikings apparently suck, the Lynx didn’t even make the Finals, and Jimmy Butler wants out.

Only I’m not so sure the Vikings suck. This was just a week where everything went wrong, and the Everson Griffen stuff probably affected things, too. Normally after a beating like that, Minnesota might need a long layoff to recuperate. I’m going the opposite direction. This game is a chance for the Vikings to get back out there and respond immediately. The Rams will be without CBs Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters, and that spells trouble against Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. L.A. will need Aaron Donald to be defensive MVP, and he might live in the backfield against this Vikings line. Minnesota’s defense is talented and proud, and I’m betting on them to respond against an offense that hasn’t faced a top defense yet.

The stay aways

Philadelphia -3 at Tennessee

How are these teams 2–1? Every Eagles and Titans outing has been a one-score game. Philly needed late home TDs to beat the Falcons and Colts, and the Titans have two fluky wins and a monsoon loss. Have we learned a single thing about Tennessee this season? Well, we’ve learned one thing: they’re not healthy. Blaine Gabbert is out with a concussion, so Marcus Mariota is back starting but unable to grip the ball, and his offensive line is a mess. I’ll side with the Eagles front seven.

Cincinnati +5.5 at Atlanta

I’m still not a believer in the Bengals, but this Falcons defense is in shambles. The entire heart of the defense is on the IR with LB Deion Jones and both safeties out for the year, and Gio Bernard should hurt them as a receiver. The Falcons play their third straight home game, but six of their final nine are on the road, and they’re already missing three of their best four defenders. They’re just going to have to put up a ton of points.

Cleveland +3 at Oakland

Sorry, these teams are not equal. The Raiders have blown three halftime leads and Derek Carr is tallying up yards, but this is about Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland defense. The Browns D has been blowing offenses up, and Baker looked like the real deal, so yeah, you’re darn right I’m picking him to win his first road start. Ride the wave!

Which 0–2 NFL team will still make the playoffs?

Could the Seahawks, Giants, or Texans turn things around and make a playoff run?

The heavy home favorites

Jacksonville -7.5 vs New York Jets

Sam Darnold on the road against this nasty defense? No thank you. Plus it looks like Leonard Fournette may be back and take some of the pressure off Blake Bortles, so that’s always a good thing.

Green Bay -9.5 vs Buffalo

On the one hand, this is a shocking line because Green Bay just lost its best defender for the season and is a couple plays away from being 0–3. On the other hand, screw you Buffalo, and I’m not going away from the Josh-Allen-sucks train based on one lucky game when everything went right.

Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 vs San Francisco

The 49ers were my last-to-first pick, but this feels like a lost season with Jimmy Garoppolo’s torn ACL. They already lost Jerick McKinnon for the season, Matt Breida and Marquise Goodwin are banged up, and now Richard Sherman will be out a few weeks. This was not the most talented 49ers team, and the few strengths they had have been cleared out. San Francisco is soon to be on prime time four of five weeks. Yikes. The Chargers are 1–2 but the two losses are to the league’s hottest teams, the Chiefs and Rams. This is a gift chance to right the ship.

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Huge AFC divisional battles

Pittsburgh -3 vs Baltimore (Sunday night)

This rivalry is a classic, and five of the last six matchups have been decided by one score. Baltimore has had the league’s #1 defense by yardage, but who have they done it against? They were good at home against Nathan Peterman and Case Keenum and bad in Cincinnati. This feels like the week they’ll miss Jimmy Smith and C.J. Mosley. Baltimore is embarking on a three game trip to Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Tennessee. If they lose all three and can’t get the offense moving, could this be the end for Joe Flacco? It no longer looks like the end for Pittsburgh. Vance McDonald’s stiff arm saved their season.

Denver +5 vs Kansas City

I was all set to not bet against this Chiefs offense until proven otherwise. Kansas City has scored on 18 of 23 meaningful drives this season with 15 touchdowns, and they’ve hit at least 38 points every game. They’ve also won five in a row against the Broncos. But the two in Denver came on the game’s final play, and the Broncos are 20–10 against the spread as home underdogs since 1991. Case Keenum can put up points on this defense. Vegas is begging us to take the Broncos, and I’m going to let them.

New England -6.5 vs Miami

It’s pretty funny for a 1–2 team to be a touchdown favorite against one that’s 3–0, but that’s the Pats and Dolphins. Miami may be undefeated, but their wins are against the Jets and Raiders and in a monsoon with the Titans. The home team has won 10 of the last 11 games in this rivalry, and only two of the last 16 have been within seven points. The Fins are awful at Foxborough, and this line would’ve been double digits a week ago.

Houston +1.5 at Indianapolis

Maybe this doesn’t fit with the other AFC divisional games, but it does feel like an elimination game in the AFC South. Seven of the last eight matchups have been one-score games, so it may come down to which quarterback you trust. Houston is winless, but their three losses are by one score each and 15 points total, and J.J. Watt recorded three sacks last week and could terrorize this Colts line. I still believe in the Texans, but this is their last chance.

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Breaking down all 32 starters, from Peterman to Rodgers

The game of the week … wait, what?

Tampa Bay +3 at Chicago

Who could have imagined a month ago that this would be Sunday’s marquee game? Both teams head into the bye, and one of them will be 3–1 and a shock NFC favorite. This is an old division rivalry and the teams split the last ten, with the road team winning five of them. This is all about matchups. Tampa’s defensive front seven is legit but their secondary is terrible, so you beat them with the pass like Pittsburgh. But Trubisky has 9 passing TDs in 15 starts which is almost a full season. I don’t believe he can beat this Bucs D, and after seeing the Todd Monken offense Monday night, I think Tampa is going to score points on anyone. Khalil Mack can’t do it all on his own this week.

Week 4 best bets

Dallas -2 vs Detroit

Welp, can’t say I expected to pick the Cowboys as a best bet anytime this season, but here we are. Dallas’s defense has been up to the task, but Dak Prescott and the passing game have not. That shouldn’t matter against an awful Lions run defense. Just give the ball to Zeke 40 times.

New Orleans +3 at New York Giants

All six Giants and Saints games this season have played have been one-score finishes, and neither secondary is getting the job done. That’s going to be a much bigger problem against Drew Brees than Eli Manning. New Orleans can throw Marshon Lattimore at Odell Beckham Jr. and let the pass rush do the rest against a struggling offensive line. Even if the Giants somehow get way ahead, is there any reason to trust this defense against Brees?

Seattle +3 at Arizona

This looks like found money. A Pete Carroll defense against a rookie quarterback making his first start? This may not be the Legion of Boom, but Josh Rosen did not look even remotely ready in the preseason, and he’s not ready for Earl Thomas. The home team hasn’t won this divisional rivalry in the last seven meetings. Let’s make it eight and lock in a suddenly resurgent Seahawks team with the Rams coming to down next Sunday.

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Week 3 record: 9–7 Season record: 25–23 Best bets: 4–4 Locks: 1–0

Last season: 130–116–11 Best bets: 29–20–1 Locks: 2–1

Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.