Week 3 NFL picks against the spread

It’s Kitchen Sink Week with seven 0–2 teams backed up against the wall, with picks for every Week 3 game

We’re only two weeks into the NFL season, but two weeks is enough to separate the contenders from the pretenders. An impressive 62% of teams that start 2–0 go on to make the playoffs, but 0–2 teams get there only 12% of the time. That’s a huge difference only two games into the season, but it gets even worse. No team that started 0–3 has made the playoffs in two decades, not since Doug Flutie and the Buffalo Bills in 1998.

So unless those 0–2 teams have a six-time CFL MVP waiting in the wings, that makes Week 3 a must-win pull-out-all-the-stops game. Welcome to Kitchen Sink Week, where the Seahawks, Giants, Lions, Texans, Cardinals, Raiders, and Bills see their season on the line. It’s time to bet on desperation and resiliency as these teams throw everything they’ve got to keep the season alive.

Already the 0–1–1 Cleveland Browns saw their backs against the wall, down 14–0, before rising up for their first win in 635 days, giving us a 1–0 start. Let’s make some more picks with an eye on those 0–2 Kitchen Sink teams…

The stay aways

Carolina -3 vs Cincinnati

This week’s stay aways are actually meaningful games for the playoff picture. The Bengals are surprise division leaders with twin 34–23 wins in which they took early leads then held on for dear life and padded the scoreline late thanks to fumble luck. The Panthers are the more talented team, and the Bengals offense could struggle without Joe Mixon. Look for luck to even out.

Indianapolis +7 at Philadelphia

Speaking of Luck, which starting QB would you rather have in this game? Andrew Luck appears healthy and is completing a career-high 71% of his passes, but he’s thrown three interceptions with a meager 8.3 yards per completion, ahead of only Sam Bradford and Mitch Trubisky. Carson Wentz was the MVP before tearing his knee ligaments in December, but he had a whopping five days of practice with the first team. It’s a toss-up, but you probably take Luck until we see Wentz take a few hits. But you’d take Philadelphia at every other position, including coach.

Baltimore -5 vs Denver

Baltimore and Denver could be in the Wild Card race with a similar script: lots of defense and a conservative offense led by a veteran check-down QB. It’s a tried and true formula, but neither defense is what it once was. The Ravens were gashed by Andy Dalton, and the Broncos barely held off off the Raiders and Seahawks at home and needed late Case Keenum comeback drives in each. The home team has dominated this series since its inception in 1996, going 10–3. Denver has averaged only 15 ppg in Baltimore. Vegas is daring us to take Keenum on the road against a tough defense. We won’t bite.

The Kitchen Sink games

Oakland +3 at Miami

The Dolphins are 2–0 at home facing a team I’ve demeaned at every turn, but this is Kitchen Sink Week. Miami won a weird seven-hour game in a monsoon and beat Sam Darnold, so let’s not crown them quite yet. Jon Gruden can’t afford an 0–3 start, so expect the Raiders to pull out every stop. That’s what Kitchen Sink Week is all about.

Buffalo +17 at Minnesota

This is one of the biggest early-season gambling lines in NFL history, and teams historically struggle to cover such a wide spread. This is also the second lowest over/under of the week, as Vegas projects the Bills to score just 12 points. The Josh Allen disrespect is real. This might be more like a Kitchen Stink game.

Seattle -1 vs Dallas

This is my favorite Kitchen Sink game. Seattle is one of three teams yet to play at home, and the offense should be better at CenturyLink, particularly the line. Both defenses are solid, and the return of Bobby Wagner is huge for the Seahawks. Take the under, and side with Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson, who’ve never lost three games in a row together.

New York Giants +6 at Houston

This is a double Kitchen-Sink game, with the 0–3 loser falling out of any playoff picture. Both offensive lines are atrocious, but Houston has the better pass rush. I took the Texans as my 0–2 team most likely to make the playoffs, but this is a double Kitchen Sink game so… take the points?

Arizona +6 vs Chicago

Chicago is flying high and its defense is for real, but unfortunately, so is Mitchell Trubisky. Trubisky is just 2–5 in his career on the road with only 3 TDs, and Arizona has won 11 of its last 14 at home in the September desert heat. It’s been 12 years since the classic Monday night game in which Chicago scored three defense and special teams TDs in the final 15:02 to steal a game against Dennis Green’s Cardinals 24–23. Those Bears are who Denny thought they were. And Mitch Trubisky is too.

The games of the week

San Francisco +7 at Kansas City

This is the fantasy football game of the week. The Chiefs are on fire, and this line has risen all week, but Patrick Mahomes can’t average five TDs a game forever. San Francisco gets back its most dynamic player on both sides of the ball in Marquise Goodwin and Reuben Foster. This is a showdown between Mahomes and Jimmy G, and between Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan.

L.A. Chargers +7 “at” L.A. Rams

It’s the battle of Los Angeles, for the first time since 1994. It’s not the Raiders anymore, but instead it’s the Chargers first foray into a local derby. The “road” team is historically 3–2 in L.A. games, and all but one of the games have been decided by one score. Are the Rams really a full touchdown better than the Chargers? The Rams have been puffed up by wins against the Raiders and Cards, two of the worst teams in the league, while the Chargers are one of the more talented all around teams in the NFL. I’m not sure the Chargers should be a touchdown dog to anyone, especially at essentially a neutral site.

Tampa Bay +2 vs Pittsburgh (Monday night)

I’m sorry, the line is what?? The Bucs have been the league’s hottest passing attack, with Ryan Fitzpatrick averaging an incredible 17 yards per completion, and the Steelers just gave up 6 TDs to Patrick Mahomes. Neither of these teams has much of a secondary to speak of, so this game should be a shootout, but how is Pittsburgh deemed five points better (counting three points for Tampa’s home-field advantage)? The Steelers have been a locker room mess, and now Antonio Brown is adding to the LeVeon Bell turmoil. Throw in road Big Ben too, and there’s a recipe for a Pittsburgh disaster.

New Orleans +2 at Atlanta

This is the biggest game of the weekend, as one of these rivals digs itself a big hole in the divisional race and the race for NFC playoff bye weeks. Both the Saints and Falcons have disappointed, with New Orleans a kick away from 0–2 at home to the Bucs and Browns and Atlanta’s defense disappointing while the offense struggles to punch it in. The home team is just 9–8 in the last 17 games in this series, so home field doesn’t seem to matter much. Atlanta is missing its top two defensive playmakers, and that’s going to be a big problem against Alvin Kamara.

Week 3 best bets

New England -6.5 at Detroit (Sunday night)

Don’t read too much into the Patriots laying an egg. That’s classic New England in September, and Belichick never shows his cards early. But Tom Brady is 17–3 in his last 20 games after a loss, and one of those losses was a meaningless Week 17 game. The Lions have no defense to speak of, and this looks like a second prime-time embarrassment in Detroit even in a Kitchen Sink game. New England gets night games against the Lions, Colts, Chiefs, Bills, and Packers five of the next seven weeks. There will be points.

Jacksonville -10 vs Tennessee

It’s a good time to remember that Gabbert is 3–22 lifetime on the road and 4–11 in Jacksonville as a starter. He’s very, very bad, and the Titans only avoided 0–2 by dialing up a fake-punt TD and a handful of Derrick Henry wildcat plays. The Jaguars defense crushed the Patriots. Imagine what they’re going to do to Blaine Gabbert. UPDATE: The line came out -10 with Gabbert starting, so we’ll stick with the Jags but it’s no longer a best bet.

Green Bay -2.5 at Washington

Alex Smith was the first pick in the 2005 draft. Aaron Rodgers was #24, left embarrassed in the green room for hours that night. That’s not Washington’s fault, but Rodgers relishes playing Smith, with 10 TDs and over 300 passing yards in their three career matchups. Don’t overthink this — you’re getting Rodgers vs Smith in essentially a coin-flip game. Rodgers may be on only one leg, but I’d take him over Smith with no legs at all.

Week 2 record: 7–9 Season record: 16–16 Best bets: 4–2 Locks: 1–0

Last season: 130–116–11 Best bets: 29–20–1 Locks: 2–1

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