Week 10 fantasy football buy or sell — 32 seconds for 32 teams

Using the numbers behind the numbers to predict future fantasy success — is it time to sell high or buy low?

It was a wild fantasy week, with one of the cruelest set of bye weeks I can recall and yet a huge number of high-scoring games and big fantasy numbers from random dudes. And hey, that’s fantasy football! Hopefully you benefited from names like Michael Thomas, Tim Hightower, and Stefon Diggs. If you’re at least 3–6, you still have a shot at this so make some moves for high variance guys and go for it. And if you’re 7–2 or better, you should definitely be playing to lock up that bye and plan for the playoffs.

So as you put together your plan, who should you sell on, and where are there great opportunities to buy low?

Atlanta 43, Tampa Bay 28

Another week, another monster game for the Falcons. Matt Ryan had 4 more TDs and looked awesome as did Julio Jones. It was a bit of a disappointing game for Devonta Freeman, who had 100 combined yards but no TDs in a game where he was the lone back with Tevin Coleman out injured. Coleman should still be owned — he’s a top 5 RB if Freeman gets hurt. Also rookie tight end Austin Hooper is getting going and could be an option if you’re desperate. These Falcons are locked and loaded and a look ahead shows a juicy playoff schedule. Buckle up.

Mike Evans continues to go #beastmode on the season and could finish the year as fantasy’s #1 WR, looking like this year’s Allen Robinson garbage time king. He could lose a little value if Jameis Winston misses time. Winston hasn’t been a great NFL QB but a pretty good fantasy one with 3+ TDs in half his games so far. This week is a great opportunity to go buy Jacquizz Rodgers and especially Doug Martin if you can. The Tampa RB has produced and could be a huge pickup down the stretch for you.

NY Giants 28, Philadelphia 23

The Giants are 5–3 now but haven’t done what we hoped for in fantasy yet, though this week was better. Eli Manning had a great game with 4 TDs but still isn’t someone you want to rely on most weeks. You might grab Sterling Shepard if he’s been dropped in your league. He’s still top 50 in targets and could see more volume if Victor Cruz’s injury is serious. Paul Perkins also looks worth picking up if you need a RB. He equaled Rashad Jennings in carries and has a bigger role on the horizon.

Sterling Shepard and Paul Perkins could be Giant waiver pickups if they come through down the stretch…

Philadelphia is apparently featuring 33-year-old Darren Sproles for some reason. He hasn’t done a ton yet but always has passing value so if he gets rushing yards and an occasional score, he could have short term value. Jordan Matthews remains useful at WR, while Ryan Mathews’ only purpose now may be vulturing TDs. These Eagles fell hard and fast.

Detroit 22, Minnesota 16

Matt Stafford has slowed down lately with only 4 TDs the last 3 games and only 230 passing yards a game over the last 6 weeks. He’s not an absolute must-hold during the bye weeks with only a couple must-starts left. If you’re desperate for RB help down the stretch, Theo Riddick could be a nice target during the bye coming off a weaker game. And if you want to take a risk, Marvin Jones may be someone to gamble on. After a huge first month he’s fallen completely off. Maybe Golden Tate is the lead receiver now — he sure looks like it — or maybe Jones will have a bigger role again after a week off to nurse injuries he’s fought through. Tate feels like a bit of a sell high. His YPC is poor and he’s never been a big TD game so you’re totally relying on huge volume for him to stay this valuable.

The Vikings have lost three straight and as a diehard fan, this was a good week to be a diehard Cubs fan too. Stefon Diggs should be in your lineup, but no one else should. If your league counts return yards, you might plug and play Cordarelle Patterson too.

Baltimore 21, Pittsburgh 14

Hey remember when Terrance West was good? He’s now had 23 carries for 31 yards the last three weeks (including the bye) and it seems that changing offensive coordinators wasn’t the only problem. And now Kenneth Dixon was on the field almost as much this week. Baltimore is leading the division but the offense is a complete stay away. West, Smith, and Wallace are all cross-your-fingers-and-hope flex plays for now. West should still be owned.

It is NOT the time to panic on Pittsburgh. In fact, just the opposite: it’s time to go steal some Steelers…

It is NOT the time to panic on Pittsburgh. In fact, just the opposite: it’s time to go steal some Steelers. We’ve seen this thing play out so many times before. Big Ben always comes back from injury too soon and looks terrible for a week or two. Pittsburgh is 2–5 in his first game off injury. But then he gets going again just fine after. You’re never going to be able to buy lower on LeVeon Bell or Big Ben or even Antonio Brown to a lesser extent. It’s a fairly soft schedule down the stretch and these Steelers will win fantasy titles.

Dallas 35, Cleveland 10

Check out Dak Prescott’s TD total by week: 0–1–2–2–2–3–3–3. That’s in order and it’s a very good trend. He’s a weekly QB1 now. He’s also a sell high if he’s your backup and someone is desperate — the TDs can’t trend up forever. Should you be concerned that Ezekiel Elliott is under 100 yards both games since Dez returned? No, not really. He’s only been 12 yards short combined and is still on pace for 1800 rushing yards and 14 TDs as a rookie. As for Dez, he was mostly invisible after a big game a week ago. With a run game this powerful, you have to believe there will be weeks he just isn’t needed a ton and that might make him a high-end high-variance WR2.

Terrelle Pryor remains one of the breakout guys of the year and a nice weekly fantasy start even without the rushing and passing. Isaiah Crowell is under 30 rushing yards now in 4 of his last 5 games. The crazy thing is he might still be a low end RB2 since he’s catching a few passes each week and still scoring occasional TDs. If you’re desperate for any production at RB, he could be a cheap low-end option.

New Orleans 41, San Francisco 23

Speaking of the terrible 49ers defense, oh hey 41 for the Saints! And welcome back Mark Ingram! He’s been a huge buy-low target and busted out with a monster 3 TD and 171-yard game, and Tim Hightower had a TD and 100 yards of his own. The scary thing for Ingram owners is that Hightower actually had more touches and saw the field more, so this is still a volatile situation and with both players getting touches (and the way the Saints have gone away from the run game much of the year) it could cannibalize both guys. If you’ve been desperate for a chance to sell Ingram high, you found it. He could be the backup RB on a pass-heavy team. He could also have finally come around though. Sell if you get a big offer but otherwise it seems worth seeing this thing play out. And definitely keep Hightower rostered. I’ve been telling you for weeks that Michael Thomas is the WR to own here and he had his biggest game yet. He’s a must start, while Brandin Cooks value will continue to fluctuate. Brees is obviously a must start and no longer a sell high with a schedule that finally opens up after Denver this week.

I’ve been telling you for weeks that Michael Thomas is the WR to own here and he had his biggest game yet…

This is a great time to buy on Carlos Hyde, especially if you can afford to wait another week or two while he gets healthy again. He’s got a nice playoff schedule. DuJuan Harris may be useful in the mean time but don’t go crazy. He doesn’t look like a must own or a huge waiver target.

Kansas City 19, Jacksonville 14

The Chiefs continue to win games without doing anything much in the fantasy football world. Charcandrick West was disappointing but is still a definite start if he’s the only healthy RB. Spencer Ware is a great buy low this week now that we know Charles is done for the year and West isn’t much of a threat. Ware is a top 10 RB down the stretch if healthy. Jeremy Maclin continues to ail and did nothing this game and now may miss time too. He’s not even a must-hold at this time. That adds extra short-term value to Travis Kelce, who is probably the de facto lead receiver on the team for now.

The Jaguars are officially this year’s most disappointing fantasy team. It’s also disappointing that Blake Bortles remains useful in fantasy despite being so bad, as long as you’re willing to wait for your garbage time points. If you can believe it, Allen Robinson isn’t even first or second on the team in receiving yards now. He’s still getting a ton of targets and got another TD, and I still believe he’s a buy low target. And both Chris Ivory and TJ Yeldon made some noise at RB this week. Both are risky fill-ins at RB but worth owning while we continue to wait and watch on this team. Remember, the Jaguars tend to close the season strong most years.

Carolina 13, Los Angeles 10

There’s not much to say about a 13–10 game. I’m still buying Panthers both in fantasy and in real life. This team is about to make a run — go get Newton, Benjamin, and Olsen. And for all the LOLZ, you might think about picking up a dirt cheap Todd Gurley if your team is really loaded and can afford to sit on him all the way until week 16 and a matchup against San Francisco’s putrid run defense. It will be the cruelest fate when he runs for 200/2 while all his owners’ teams are long since out of the playoffs, if they even made it.

Miami 27, NY Jets 23

Jay Ajayi continues to roll for the Dolphins. Keep riding the wave, and get him if you find an owner still not sold on him. He caught a few passes now too so that bodes even better. No one else on Miami has been great in fantasy this year, including stalwart Jarvis Landry. Even after an off month, Landry is on pace for 1200 yards and 140 targets. He’s becoming a big buy low target that could really help your team especially in PPR leagues down the stretch.

Matt Forte is rocking again after a weird invisible month. Congratulations if you weathered the storm. Be careful though — we’ve seen this before, and with his injury history and the Jets revolving door at QB, this is not the most stable situation. That seems to be affecting Brandon Marshall too. He’s top 6 in both targets and red zone targets but the ball isn’t finding him, with under half of those turning into completions. He’s had 3–4 receptions in 6 of 9 games now and that’s just not good enough. He remains a buy low but a cautionary one. He should be better than he’s been so far but you’re not getting last year’s guy either.

San Diego 43, Tennessee 35

Melvin Gordon is a fantasy stud. As if all the TDs weren’t enough, he’s finally racking up yards the last few weeks too. Congrats on having this year’s breakout fantasy stud. Tyrell Williams continues to be a useful WR3 or better as the go to guy on this underrated Chargers team, and Antonio Gates looks like a definite TE1 while Hunter Henry is out.

These Titans may help you make the playoffs but with Denver-KC in weeks 14–15 they won’t be reliable once you get there…

DeMarco Murray had another good fantasy day and the receptions were back. He remains a hold, but be sure to get Henry too if you can afford the space. Marcus Mariota has quietly averaged 3 TDs over the past 5 games and is now in the QB1 picture. Delanie Walker and even Rishard Matthews have become useful fantasy options in Tennessee too, but be careful. These Titans may help you make the playoffs but with Denver-KC in weeks 14–15 they won’t be reliable once you get there.

Indianapolis 31, Green Bay 26

Hey the Colts finally showed up in the first half! It’s the Colts bye week and I’ve been advising you to sell on Luck and Gore but you can’t do that too well into a bye. The schedule remains difficult down the stretch so it’s a good time to test the waters. Luck is still one leaky-OL hit away from this entire Colts team being done for the year. TY Hilton looks healthy again and certainly should be after the break, and Donte Moncrief looks like a must own even through the bye and a likely start again after they come back.

The Packers disappointed in this game but Aaron Rodgers didn’t, with another 3 TDs and nearly 300 yards. There’s just no run game here at all so Rodgers continues to put up big numbers. This is a great time to buy low on Randall Cobb, who had really broken out in this offense before injury. Ty Montgomery is still useful as long as he keeps getting RB snaps, and even Davante Adams has become a possible flex start for this team. Along with Jordy Nelson, that could mean four startable WRs on one team. Be careful with Jordy, who appears to be sell high with an unsustainable rate turning red zone targets into TDs.

Oakland 30, Denver 20

What a fun Raiders performance that was! Though more fun in real life than in fantasy, where the passing game didn’t do much against a still-great Denver secondary. It’s a really nice schedule after the bye this week so Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree could be targets from desperate owners that can’t afford to wait. The Raiders ran the ball 39 times this game, and Latavius Murray was the big winner — on your bench, probably. What the heck do we do with this guy? He has 8 TDs now on 89 carries, completely unsustainable. Rookies Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington have 126 touches already to only 107 from Murray, but Latavius has 8 of the 9 TDs. Going forward, it looks like Murray will get around 50–60% of the RB touches in a passing offense. That means around 70 combined yards (the receiving helps) and a TD-dependent RB, I guess a RB2 this year. Sell high for the millionth time if you can, but otherwise I think you have to play him. Derek Carr has been magnificent but has 0–1 TD in over half of his games, so he’s not a definite start in fantasy yet.

Sell high on Latavius Murray for the millionth time if you can, but otherwise I think you have to play him.

It was a really tough game for Denver’s offense, which really never got going other than a late screen TD that broke. I still really like Devontae Booker who is clearly the guy here, so he’s a good buy low target especially with the Saints on tap. Day traders might target Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders before this game but it’s a bye week after so you should probably just hold and enjoy the nice matchup. Denver’s schedule is tough down the stretch and this team could be in playoff trouble suddenly, so the Saints matchup might prevent a great chance to sell.

Seattle 31, Buffalo 25

Oh hey, Russell Wilson! Wilson looked good again after going TD-less in the last three games, even running one in, and he looked healthier again too but the numbers still aren’t great. Where there’s smoke, there’s fire, and Wilson hasn’t been good this year. Take this opportunity to sell while you can and find another QB for your stretch run. Don’t sell Jimmy Graham, just enjoy his 1000-yard pace and red zone targets. Tight end is suddenly loaded again. It was a really tough day for Christine Michael, whose TD saved a miserable 1-yard day. He is a real risk with C.J. Prosise taking touches and Thomas Rawls’ return on the horizon.

LeSean McCoy is a stud, putting up 110 yards on one hamstring against a tough Seattle D. That was really surprising and encouraging, and the bye week should get him back to full speed ahead for the home stretch. He’s a slight buy low right now if you can make a move. Robert Woods had a monster game. I’m not rushing to add him but this bodes well for Sammy Watkins who hopes to return week 12. Make sure he’s owned. Tyrod Taylor is playing well and has 2 TDs in 4 of 5 games, plus he’s getting you a few rushing yard points each week too. He’s a sneaky play if you’re desperate. These Bills are real and have a pretty nice schedule so you’ll want to grab them where you can and the bye is a great opportunity.

Chicago, Cincinnati, New England, Arizona, Washington, Houston bye

Please come back, these teams. It was one of the roughest bye weeks in memory. You obviously should try to get guys like David Johnson, Tom Brady, and Rob Gronkowski if you can but you know that already. This is your reminder that this is a great chance to buy low on Lamar Miller, Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifert, Jordan Howard, and Julian Edelman. I’m really curious to see what adjustments the Arizona passing game will make coming out of the bye week. I’d love to stash someone like John Brown or other Cards WRs.

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