Week 8 fantasy football buy or sell — 32 seconds for 32 teams

Using the numbers behind the numbers to predict future fantasy success — is it time to sell high or buy low?

We’re almost halfway through the NFL season now, and the grueling section of the bye weeks are really upon us. There are 6 coming up this week — Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, NY Giants, Pittsburgh, and San Francisco. At least half of those teams have little fantasy relevance. Either way, you’re going to have to dig deep to create a lineup the next few weeks.

It’s also time to really take a look at your team. If you are 2–5 or worse, it’s time to sell for the future in keeper leagues or trade for huge boom or bust guys in redraft. And if you’re at 5–2 or better, it’s time to start planning for weeks 14–16. This is the time that one key buy or sell can make or break your whole season.

So let’s get to it.

Green Bay 26, Chicago 10

It’s becoming clear that we need to reevaluate Packer receivers going forward. Ever since the bye in week 4, the Packers have made a concerted effort to pass the ball to guys in the slot and out of the backfield, getting it to playmakers in space. That means lots of action for both Randall Cobb and Ty Montgomery, each at 12+ targets a game since the bye. And these are short targets so that means a great chance of completion. Cobb used to lack value because he was a short YPC guy without enough catches, but if he keeps getting twice as much work then the value is there. Montgomery will continue to be valuable while the Packers lack RB options, as he’s getting rushing yards too.

And look at the change for Aaron Rodgers, up from 31 pass attempts a game before the bye to 48 after. His YPC is down even further but his yardage is up almost 100 yards a game and he’s getting there. Don’t worry too much about Jordy Nelson. He had only 4 targets this week but mostly because Chicago couldn’t cover Davante Adams. Nelson’s targets have been stable otherwise and a better Packers offense should afford him more TD opportunities. The yardage won’t be there so he’s not going to be a high end fantasy WR1 but he’s a buy low target from worried owners. Readjust your Packers expectations. With literally nothing at RB on the roster, they are going to pass, pass, pass and it’s time for us to adjust accordingly.

Speaking of adjusting, plan on benching every Bear in your lineup the next two weeks. The Bears may be starting the truly terrible Matt Barkley at QB against the Vikings on Monday night and that spells big trouble, and then it’s a bye the week after. The whole Bears team is in big trouble. Suddenly they’re barely using Jordan Howard. Don’t give up on him yet but sit him while you watch snap count next week; hopefully his value returns after the bye. Cam Meredith’s value may have disappeared with Hoyer. You won’t want to play any Bears WR with Barkley. If Cutler comes back, one or both of Meredith and Alshon Jeffery could be valuable again. Jeffery could be a decent buy low option in a couple weeks. Ugh. This team is a mess.

NY Giants 17, Los Angeles 10

Who knows what to expect out of these Giants? It ain’t consistency, and it ain’t reliability. It was a down week from Odell Beckham but hopefully you trust him by now to stay the course. Right now no one else on New York is even must own. Rashad Jennings had a TD but has very little value beyond that. Eli Manning is a huge wildcard even in a plus matchup; there are just too many other QBs available for you to rely on him. Sterling Shepherd has settled in around 7–8 targets a week. That’s not enough for a slot receiver in fantasy, so he’s a WR3 or flex option now.

It’s a Rams bye week so at least you won’t feel compelled to start Todd Gurley…

Another disappointing week for Todd Gurley but what else is new? At least they’re using him in the passing game now, with around 4–5 receptions and 40 yards a game over the past month. Through seven games Gurley has only hit 4 YPC once now and has just 3 TDs, and he’s under 3 YPC for the season. Volume alone makes him a stable RB2 — what a disappointment. The best news for you? It’s a Rams bye week so at least you won’t feel compelled to start him. No other Rams need to be held through the bye, including Kenny Britt or Tavon Austin, both wildcard flex plays any given week. It seems like it’s time to get Goff onto the field after the bye. Maybe that will help.

Philadelphia 21, Minnesota 10

This was an ugly fantasy game outside of the two defenses, with just 1 offensive score for each team. We’ve learned to throw out fantasy weeks against Minnesota, but even beyond that, no one on Philadelphia is particularly useful in fantasy right now. Both Mat(t)hews should be owned but are flex starts. That’s it, really. It’s not much better in Minnesota. Diggs should be owned but he had another off week. Jerick McKinnon isn’t getting enough work or room to be more than a flex. The only real must-start players here are Minnesota D and tight end Kyle Rudolph. The Vikings play Chicago and Detroit the next two weeks so the offense should bounce back. I still like Diggs as a buy low target and I’d start him in those games.

Indianapolis 34, Tennessee 26

More of what we’ve come to expect from Indianapolis. TY Hilton is a freaking stud. Logic would make him a sell high and I suppose he’s at his peak but I’m not sure what you should trade him for. I might just ride the wave. Frank Gore is riding the low tide wave. He continues to be the consummate RB2. Jack Doyle could be a nice TE if Dwayne Allen continues to miss time. And then there’s Andrew Luck, who continues to roll up numbers. I still don’t trust him but at some point you might have to accept that an MVP can produce even with little around him. I’d still rather have another top end QB.

I’m still stashing Derrick Henry if I can, potential RB1 value if Murray misses time at any point…

DeMarco Murray is a stud. Derrick Henry saw a whopping one carry this week so you can continue to count on Murray as a safe RB1, though he’s slowed down in the passing game so you’d have to think his value has peaked. Delanie Walker looks safe again as a midrange TE1. He’s definitely the top target here. The Titans schedule remains Charmin-soft going forward but know that it’s rough during the fantasy playoffs so you might want to have a long term plan for Murray. I’m still stashing Henry if I can, potential RB1 value if Murray misses time at any point.

Kansas City 27, New Orleans 21

Wow, the jig is up on Jamaal Charles. He had one carry, no yards, and clearly isn’t healthy. That means Spencer Ware is suddenly a high upside RB2 going forward, though you hoped for more against this bad defense. A long screen TD saved his day. It was a terribly disappointing two weeks for Jeremy Maclin, with just 8 targets and under 100 yards combined against the Raiders and Saints. He remains a buy low along with Travis Kelce because the schedule is still very soft, but temper expectations.

Didn’t I tell you Michael Thomas was the receiver to own on this team? He has been the one consistent threat for the Saints, though it does feel like a sell high moment after four straight good weeks. It’s tough to buy him as a fantasy WR2 all season. I’m still not a big fan of Brandin Cooks and would sell off a useful week. He’ll continue to be hot and cold, as will Coby Fleener. Another tough week for Mark Ingram but he got a receiving TD. Drew Brees continues to produce as always. But Saints owners beware: it’s Seattle and Denver two of the next three weeks. This week, right now, is the time to sell high on your Saints passing game assets. Ingram remains a buy low target but should see his value drop further in this stretch so wait a bit on him.

Detroit 20, Washington 17

I can’t believe both of these teams are over .500 through 7 games. A late TD saved Matt Stafford’s week. He’s still a usable but risky QB1. No real changes to Marvin Jones or Golden Tate in value. Tate looks more involved in the offense than the first month but not exactly what he was last week. And for the desperate among you, Anquan Boldin seems to score a TD just about every week somehow. I’d play him over any of the RBs.

There’s no one on Washington you should feel compelled to start with Jordan Reed out…

Did you miss your window to sell high on Matt Jones? What a stinker. Jones is only on the field slightly more than Chris Thompson, and now Robb Kelley is deservedly stealing some carries too. Jones may see his value go only further down from here with a bye in two weeks and then two tough run Ds after in Green Bay in Minnesota. You should probably sell while you can. There’s no one on Washington you should feel compelled to start with Jordan Reed out, though Vernon Davis seems useful if he is out longer.

Cincinnati 31, Cleveland 17

Few teams have been more frustrating in fantasy football than the Bengals this year. You got lucky if you gave Andy Dalton a spot start. He was a Hail Mary away from another boring 250/1 type game. Told you to buy low on the AJ Green cycle. You know the drill on him by now. I suppose we should mention Brandon Lafell after 4 TDs in 3 weeks. The volume isn’t there to make this last, so he’s a sell high or emergency start. And what about the Bengals RBs? I have lots of Jeremy Hill stock on my teams but sat him this week and missed his 192 yards and a TD, while Gio Bernard owners are probably a little disappointed by his game too though an early TD helped. Hill is a sell high, if he even has sale value. He’s averaging 12 carries a game and not even one reception, and his YPC sucks so it’s a complete random play. Bernard feels like a RB2 still and a guy with enough PPR value to start each week.

Isaiah Crowell had a TD and another RB2 type game. He is the Jeremy Hill of this no-win team if that does it for you. It was a disappointing game for Terrelle Pryor but he was playing hurt and he’ll be fine. I suppose that makes a bit of a buy low window, but now that Cleveland is using Kevin Hogan in the QB/WR role, Pryor’s value seems to be fading. I’d actually sell if you can get value from an intrigued owner.

Oakland 33, Jacksonville 16

LOL what the heck, Latavius Murray? Two weeks missed and questionable coming into this, he has 20 touches, 2 TDs, and his best game of the season on your bench. Awesome. At least he regained some sale value. Go, do it now. Derek Carr looks like a better NFL QB than a fantasy one, and Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree saw their values even back out some.

I guess that means one more buy low mention for Allen Robinson since even the owners that still believe have to have given up after this stinker…

I think I’m officially done with this whole Jaguars squad in fantasy. TJ Yeldon is a bust, and I don’t want Chris Ivory either. Blake Bortles could barely hit 50% against the worst pass D in the league and had only 246/1 even with garbage time, and Allen Robinson continues to rack up targets and do almost nothing with them. ARob is now on pace for 70/800/8, and he’s still far too talented to finish that poorly. I guess that means one more buy low mention for ARob since even the owners that still believe have to have given up after this stinker. No matter how bad things looked so far, he still has the volume of a top 20 WR the second half of the season.

Miami 28, Buffalo 25

Well hello Jay Ajayi. Ajayi became just the 4th RB in history to have back-to-back 200 yard rushing games along with OJ Simpson, Earl Campbell, and Ricky Williams — maybe you’ve heard of them. So now what do you do with Ajayi? As always, the answer is relative. His value obviously can’t stay this high, so yeah if someone will give you a top 10 RB or WR then you have to consider it. But we’ve also been waiting on a relevant Miami RB all season, expecting fantasy value. Miami is on bye now, and I’m still a little worried that Arian Foster could see more time after that. Ajayi also isn’t being used in the passing game, something that has made Miami RBs so valuable in the past. So... what to do? Depends on your team. If I could trade a stable useful RB2 like Frank Gore for the Ajayi gamble, that’s my style and I’d take my shot. If I could give up Ajayi for a player like Jordy Nelson, I think I’d take the known talent. Mostly I’m in on the Ajayi experience who is something like a RB1 or bust here on out. If you drafted today for the rest of the season he’d probably go in round 2 at worst. Plan accordingly.

Update: Arian Foster retired Monday. So Ajayi should be the guy moving forward. He won’t be this good every week — no one is — but looks like a guy I’d want down the stretch. Going into a bye, you might catch an owner a little too eager to sell. You should go for it.

So… what to do with Jay Ajayi??

Buffalo wavered on whether LeSean McCoy would play or not and ended up rendering both him and Gillislee useless, and now McCoy reaggravated the hamstring injury and will almost certainly be out longer. The reinjury is very often worse than the first. I’m not sure we’ll see McCoy in a useful fantasy role again til after Buffalo’s bye in week 11. And that’s bad news for this whole team since you saw how bad they looked without him. Make sure Mike Gillislee is owned in your league. He’s at least a RB2 any week McCoy is ruled out. Buffalo has New England and Seattle next, so they’ll likely be 4–5 coming out of the bye. The schedule is soft down the stretch so McCoy and potentially Sammy Watkins could be useful again later, but you’ll need to be patient.

NY Jets 24, Baltimore 16

Matt Forte is back! It’s amazing what 30 carries will do for a guy. 150 yards and 2 TDs later, Forte has quickly back to sell high status, though I do still like him long term, just not quite this much. We still must beware Bilal Powell eating more workload most weeks. The rest of the Jets were terrible, even with Fitzpatrick back on the field and even with a win. Brandon Marshall is a great buy low target, especially if Geno is hurt long enough that Fitz plays.

Ugly day for Terrance West, just 10 yards on 8 carries. He still looks like a good RB2 most weeks if you catch an owner panic selling. Mike Wallace had a big game against a poor secondary in Steve Smith’s absence. The Baltimore WR1 has proven to be worth owning this year if you can bounce between Wallace and Smith and figure out which is the lead — a cheap good WR3.

Tampa Bay 34, San Francisco 17

I told you to go get some Bucs and they did not disappoint. Jameis Winston had 3 TDs and should be very usable this back stretch, and Mike Evans continues to blow things up. And though Doug Martin’s injury kept him out longer, it was a monster game for cheap replacement Jacquizz Rodgers. I’d advise you to sell on Quizz if someone wants to pay, but I doubt they’ll give you any real value. Instead, keep Quizz and go get Martin to lock up the position. The schedule is cake and you’ll be glad you did.

This is where we would talk about the 49ers if we cared to.

New England 27, Pittsburgh 16

This was a classic grind-it-out-against-a-crap-QB-knowing-you-can’t-lose Belichick game plan. No way he was going to reveal much of the playbook against a team he will have to beat in January. That meant somewhat vanilla performances from Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, and it means you got another big game and one last chance to sell super high on LeGarrette Blount. I’m still buying Julian Edelman, who is on pace for an 85/725/0 season. Look for him to have something like 55/575/4 the rest of the way which is still quite usable. I’m still buying on Martellus Bennett and James White as weekly starts in this offense too, so this is a great buy low week.

I’m still buying on Julian Edelman, Martellus Bennett, and James White…

Pittsburgh heads to the bye week and you’re hoping Big Ben gets healthy soon after, though you can’t ask for much more from LeVeon Bell or Antonio Brown than big games like this with Landry Jones under center. Too bad — it cost us a chance for a nice buy low opportunity. If you are 6–1 or 7–0, this is a great chance to trade for Big Ben for your stretch run.

San Diego 33, Atlanta 30

Oh Melvin Gordon, what a strange RB. He still can’t run the ball for anything but 3 TDs later you hardly care, plus the receiving volume keeps him safe too. As per usual, stay the course but know that there may be some duds. Philip Rivers continues to play at an MVP level and could be a cheap usable QB if you need one, especially if some of the rushing TDs start moving to the air. A great bounceback week for Tyrell Williams sets him up as the top receiver going forward and a weekly start for your team.

You know what I think about Atlanta by now. These guys are good, and this offense is good, but it still feels like regression is coming. If you have Matt Ryan, there’s a decent chance that you have two usable QBs since he was probably your backup pick. If so, trade one. Ryan could get you a top 15 RB or WR. Julio Jones could net you two top starters instead of one. And please either start or sell Tevin Coleman. For the second half of the season, if there were a draft today, I’d take Ryan about 5th among QBs and Freeman in the RB10–15 range.

Arizona 6, Seattle 6

What a hilariously garbage football game. David Johnson did David Johnson things. Guy is a beast. I’ve been telling you to sell on Larry Fitz but with all the injuries to the Arizona WRs, you might just keep milking the value. Next week against Carolina might be a loser goes home game in the NFC. Life comes at you fast.

You might hope for one big Seahawks week before a fire sale…

Russell Wilson is not right. The Seattle offensive line is broken, and so is Russ right now. He can’t move and that continues to kill his fantasy value. Jimmy Graham still looks like he’s back though. Christine Michael has had 50–65 rushing yards and a YPC below 4 in three straight games running behind this bad offensive line. Seattle could be in some trouble with a tough back stretch but they get New Orleans this week first. You might hope for one big Seahawks week before a fire sale.

Denver 27, Houston 9

There wasn’t much out of expectation in this game. Demaryius Thomas scored another TD to save another low yardage week. That’s become the norm but he remains a sell high and a danger when the TDs regress. Emmanuel Sanders is still useful and the preferred long term WR. It was mixed news for CJ Anderson who had 100 yards and a TD but also saw rookie Devontae Booker nearly match him in carries and production.

There wasn’t much to see from Houston. The sell high window on Will Fuller is firmly shut, and DeAndre Hopkins had a predictably poor game against a tough secondary. Even for our reduced expectations, it was a disappointing game by Lamar Miller after his presumed breakout last week. He got only 11 carries to Alfred Blue’s 11, dealing with some injuries on and off during the game. If Miller did miss any real time, I suspect rookie Tyler Ervin is the back you’d actually want. This is a great opportunity to buy low on Texans, coming off Denver and Minnesota two of the last three weeks. They’ve got DET JAX (x2) OAK SD IND still on the schedule and they’re still the division favorite so you could have some real value down the stretch. It’s possible you could catch some owner panicking on Miller after he “finally had one good game.” There are few RBs I’d rather have going forward. Go get him.

Dallas, Carolina bye

This week is a really great opportunity to go out and get Cam Newton and Kelvin Benjamin. Both are way undervalued right now especially coming off the bye, and Newton should have a chance to get more fully healthy and ready to go. Go get Greg Olsen too if you can afford The Best Tight End Not Named Gronk. Dallas has a monster Sunday night game against Philadelphia coming up. If they win it, there’s no going back on this Dak thing. Meanwhile Zeke is probably too expensive to get unless you get a bye week discount, but this feels like a great opportunity to buy Dez Bryant stock. Be careful though, he’ll be hit or miss and is prone to reinjury, but he’s going to have a couple monster weeks too with defenses collapsing on the run game.

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