Week 7 fantasy football buy or sell — 32 seconds for 32 teams
Using the numbers behind the numbers to predict future fantasy success — is it time to sell high or buy low?
You know what you’re here for. Who are the buy low targets and where should you sell high? There are a lot of guys to sell after a high scoring week and not too many at the right window to buy, so it’s important you find a good match. Some targets are relative low values, guys that look like surprise stars but had a bad week now and may have caused owners to panic.
You’re feeling pretty good this week if you went out and got guys like Terrance West and Christine Michael, and you’re probably pretty happy you hung onto OBJ. But what should you do about the Saints passing game, and what’s going on with Cam Newton and Russell Wilson? And will I finally admit I’ve been wrong about the Falcons all this time? Read on…
San Diego 21, Denver 13
There wasn’t much to see from a fantasy standpoint Thursday night. If you played any of your guys, you were probably disappointed. Melvin Gordon remains a caution and sell high, and I remain cautiously optimistic on CJ Anderson as a buy low despite Devontae Booker looking good. This is two rough Denver games in a row but remember last week they had a rookie QB in his first start and this week was a short week with no head coach. It’s a good chance to buy low on any Denver players you’ve had your eye on.
Tennessee 28, Cleveland 26
It was a very disappointing day for Delanie Walker who saw just 2 targets and 1 catch, while DeMarco Murray had his lowest output of the year with no receptions though still a nice game. Murray is starting to slow down a little bit but still isn’t ceding many carries to Derrick Henry yet. You might start testing the trade waters on Murray but don’t sell yet with the Colts, Jags, and Chargers on deck. The Titans are suddenly good and could be as good as 6–3 after that stretch, and that could mean more chances for Henry with a lead. This is two great fantasy starts in a row for Marcus Mariota who could be a plug and play with the soft upcoming schedule. You are welcome to add Kendall Wright but be careful with any Titans receiving option.
Isaiah Crowell was terrible again, just 22 carries for 38 yards the last two weeks. Hope you sold while you had the chance. He’s not a must start, but Terrelle Pryor definitely is. He had a monster 2 TD game with 13 receiving targets and looks like a top 20 fantasy WR even with only a couple touches under center. Gary Barnidge remains a usable TE1, and it’s time to start getting comfortable with these Browns receivers with Cody Kessler at QB.
Buffalo 45, San Francisco 16
LeSean McCoy is a bad, bad man. He ran wild in this one and played like a man with a Chip on his shoulder, adding 3 TDs to plenty of yardage — but this game also offered a reminder of why we should be cautious on McCoy as it looked like his annual injury had occurred. I’m not sure you should trade him for too many RBs but you might roster Mike Gillislee if you can, and know that he’s at peak value and the TDs will regress. No one else on Buffalo should be rostered except maybe Robert Woods if you’re desperate at WR. Don’t get suckered into Tyrod Taylor, who had a passable game but isn’t passing enough and is actually losing some snaps in the red zone to EJ Manuel too.
I’ve always been a Colin Kaepernick fan on the football field, but we will need to see more in the passing game before he’s worth owning. Keep an eye on him in Chip Kelly’s offense though — he’s made Sam Bradford and Nick Foles fantasy relevant the last two years. I warned you to sell high on Carlos Hyde and he disappointed this week but I’m actually flipping my position. I love RBs with mobile QBs as it often means extra space and a lot more yardage. This week might be a good chance to pick up a cheaper Hyde as long as his slight injury this week doesn’t linger.
Washington 27, Philadelphia 20
The best offensive player in this one was Matt Jones who has gone from waiver wire fodder to solid RB2 status but he might have also moved into sell high status. He isn’t used in the passing game and is getting limited carries for a guy that’s the clear starter, partly due to Chris Thompson playing passing downs and partly due to Rob Kelley beginning to carve out a role. Combine that with a tougher upcoming schedule and it’s a nice week to sell.
The charmed Eagles life might be over quickly. They scored only 6 points on offense against a poor D and now they see Minnesota next and a pretty tough schedule overall the next six weeks. The Eagles line was getting mauled this game and that was bad news for both Mat(t)hews. Right now no one in Philly is must-start. I still like Jordan Matthews as a start each week, but Ryan Mathews is only seeing around 10–12 touches a week and looks like a TD reliant flex at best. Ertz and Wentz need not be owned this upcoming stretch.
New Orleans 41, Carolina 38
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Saints are quite an animal at home. I’m still not a long term believer in the Saints passing game so the advice stays on point here — we’ve been waiting for a chance to sell high and now is your time to do so on Drew Brees, Brandin Cooks, and Coby Fleener. After this poor rookie-laden secondary, New Orleans gets KC, Seattle, and Denver over the next month. Brees is a QB1 but still nearer #10 than #1. I’m not totally out on Fleener and TEs don’t net much so you might just play him and enjoy the sporadic big games. But I definitely sell immediately on Cooks. So far this season he has 23/243/1 — plus two monster bomb TDs. That’s just not sustainable production. In fact, rookie Michael Thomas looks more like the WR1 in New Orleans than Cooks. Thomas has been off the radar but looks very solid. It’s another disappointing week for Mark Ingram owners. I didn’t love him preseason but didn’t think he’d be this bad. Right now he’s not even a great buy low target with that rough upcoming schedule.
The Panthers are 1–5 after losing just one game all last regular season. Life comes at you fast. Cam Newton is back and locked in after 300 yards and 3 TDs right? Well, not so fast. He had just 2 carries for 1 yard after averaging 7 for 37 yards the rest of the year. If Carolina is going to script less QB runs to protect Newton from another concussion, I get it, but that hurts his fantasy value a lot. Stay tuned but don’t be afraid to sell for another superstar QB… but also it’s Carolina’s bye week so maybe the plan was to take it easy one week and let him recover two more. I’m still in on Kelvin Benjamin as a top 15 WR if you can get him cheap during the bye. I’ve never been a Jonathan Stewart believer, so that makes him an easy sell high. He won’t see those two short TDs usually.
NY Giants 27, Baltimore 23
Well hello there Odell Beckham Jr. I’d say we missed you, but if you’ve been reading you know he’s been fine all along. He got his 10 targets again like usual and this time they paid off with a monster 8/222/2 game. He’s going to ebb and flow with his emotions but is still a locked in high end WR1. I suppose he’s a sell high after a game like this if someone wants to go crazy. Eli Manning finally had a good fantasy game but still isn’t a weekly start, and rookie Sterling Shepherd had his 4th game under 45 yards. I still like him but he’s not a must start. Rashad Jennings was back but he was terrible. He’s not a must start or even a must own depending on league depth. The Giants schedule does soften a bit in the upcoming weeks so maybe this stuff will even out a bit.
I told you to go get Terrance West and he was even better with a new offensive coordinator, with 123 combined yards and 2 TDs. He’s being used in the passing game now too and has quickly moved into top 15–20 RB status and is a weekly start. That’s not true of anyone else in Baltimore. Mike Wallace and Dennis Pitta are usable if needed but won’t excited anyone. Steve Smith is worth picking up if he was dropped while injured.
Jacksonville 17, Chicago 16
These teams are both absolutely terrible. It’s awful that the Jags couldn’t score on Chicago for three quarters, and it’s probably even worse that they won the game anyway. I was high on TJ Yeldon and hung onto him through the bye week but I’m officially cutting bait after another tough week. Blake Bortles has not been reliable even with a soft schedule. He should be owned but has moved to spot start status and you might be relying on garbage time. The good news is that Oakland is up next so that means it’s a good time to buy low on Allen Robinson and get ready to give Bortles and Hurns a start too.
My guy Jordan Howard cooled off after two great games but still had a TD and hit double digit points again. It’s a bit alarming that Hoyer threw 40+ times again especially in a game the Bears led the whole way. But Howard might not be the only young fantasy star in Chicago, where Cam Meredith officially looks like the real deal. He’s had 20 catches the last two weeks for 243 yards and looks like he might be the go to guy. It’s common for a new go to WR to match up with a backup QB so this may not be a fluke. Alshon Jeffery finally saw more than 7 targets but still hasn’t found a TD. All three of those guys and even Brian Hoyer seem playable now though beware that Chicago’s schedule gets tougher now.
Detroit 31, Los Angeles 28
It was another huge week for Matthew Stafford, who has thrown for 3+ TDs in four of six games now. The yardage hasn’t been there for Stafford so you’re relying on the TDs to continue, a risky proposition, but there sure aren’t RBs stealing much. Stafford should continue to be a weekly start but get ready to sell in a couple weeks. It was a third straight disappointing week for Marvin Jones after his monster game, but a TD saved his value again. He’s settling into that top 10–15 WR range and still seems very valuable, so this is a nice chance to buy relatively low if his owner is getting frisky. I’m not sold on Golden Tate being “back” but he should be picked up if on waivers. Right now this game is the big outlier in a season of unusable fantasy games, but the targets have been there so we’ll see if the value returns.
And speaking of disappointment… Todd Gurley! He’s averaging 4 catches a game the last 3 weeks to save some value but still a massive disappointment. He’s probably still a must start as at least a RB2 but selling at your first chance of name recognition or a big game should be a priority. He is still top 5 in redzone carries and now getting some RZ targets too so the TDs should come if you’re patient. And holy crap a Rams receiver might finally be worth owning. Kenny Britt is averaging 5 catches and 80+ yards a game, which would pace out to 80 and 1300. That won’t last but he’s clearly the top guy there and startable in the right matchup.
Miami 30, Pittsburgh 15
Even in a dominating win, the Dolphins still had precious little fantasy value unless you started Jay Ajayi for some unknown reason. Ajayi played over 2/3 of the snaps even with Foster back. You should definitely pick him up as I continue to believe “Miami starting RB” will be fantasy relevant down the stretch. Arian Foster played only 11 snaps, a major disappointment. Hang onto him too, but with a bye week coming after another game, maybe expect him to ease back in next week again. People in your league are probably sleeping on Jarvis Landry who looks like a great buy low right now. He’s still producing just fine and is the one must start in Miami.
And this is why we can never totally believe in the Pittsburgh fantasy guys. Big Ben got hurt and then returned but is now out at least one game with a meniscus tear. Roethlisberger has a history of coming back quickly from injury and the Steelers have a bye in two weeks, but Big Ben’s injury casts doubt on every Steeler’s value next week. If you own these big Steelers, sorry — you probably have to play them against the Pats this week but don’t count on much. But the real news here is that two weeks from now, there will be a monster buy low window for Big Ben, LeVeon Bell, and Antonio Brown after three off weeks, so start planning ahead for your trade now.
Kansas City 26, Oakland 10
Well shoot, that was pretty disappointing for Jamaal Charles. Kinda. It’s disappointing vs Oakland and with Spencer Ware having such a huge game. But he also scored 11 fantasy points on just 15 snaps, so you can see how valuable he’ll be when the snaps return further. With the Saints, Colts, Jags on tap, you can probably start both Charles and Spencer Ware with confidence until we see that Charles is healthy enough for the full load. I would absolutely still buy Charles off a disappointed owner. The Chiefs passing game was really disappointing against this opponent but I’m still buying and using Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce these next few weeks.
Hopefully you sold Michael Crabtree and Latavius Murray while you were warned. Murray didn’t play for a second straight week and Crabtree had his worst game of the season, not totally unexpected in a difficult matchup. It was another huge game for Amari Cooper by targets and yardage. We don’t know yet if the passing game is finally shifting his direction or if things are just evening out, but probably the latter so that makes Cooper a slight sell high but I’d rather hold and keep hopes up. He’s just one target away from the NFL lead now. Crabtree is fine and still a guy to own, along with Derek Carr. Carr, Cooper, and Crabtree have an easy schedule all year and especially in the playoffs — they look like guys that could carry teams to titles this year.
New England 35, Cincinnati 17
Did I mention that there might be no fantasy QB I’d rather have than Tom Brady right now? Another monster week for Brady who is making it look easy. And Gronk is back and locked in as the #1 TE too, as if there was any doubt. Martellus Bennett was second on the team in yardage. It actually might be time to scoop him up if you can. New England is running a sort of inverted offense and Bennett might be the second receiving option going forward, ahead of the slot receivers and RBs. I’d still buy low on Julian Edelman, but for the above reason, I’m starting to temper expectations. James White has moved into RB2 status quickly, especially in PPR. I’d play him over LaGarrette Blount at this point, who is still useful but totally TD dependent now. Both of the RBs may be sell high options if you find a taker because Dion Lewis is eligible to be back now too. If you have a roster spot sitting around, he’s definitely worth grabbing soon.
The Bengals continue to disappoint, but Cleveland and Washington the next two weeks should help. We’re at another buy low spot in the AJ Green cycle — expect another monster game in the next two weeks. I’m not buying Brandon LaFell as fantasy relevant yet. You may finally be able to use Jeremy Hill these next couple weeks. We need Cincinnati to start leading and winning games for him to be more valuable. It’s a bit of a sell high on Gio Bernard if he has enough value to sell, like in PPR leagues. His reception total should drop slightly going forward with Cincinnati likely playing from behind less. For all the Bengals’ struggles, Andy Dalton is actually playing pretty well. He could be a start these next couple weeks if you need someone.
Seattle 26, Atlanta 24
It was a very disappointing fantasy game for Russell Wilson against an Atlanta defense that can be had. It’s one thing to miss the endzone, but the real worry is that he’s still not running the ball even after two weeks of rest. He’s on pace for just 112 yards and 0 TDs on the ground, a far cry from the 600/3 he’s averaged in his career. That’s a difference of over 4ppg in fantasy, basically a full passing TD less. You might be advised to sell after a big game if you can get another stud QB. He’s not even a must start right now. Christine Michael definitely is. He’s looking like Marshawn Lynch in fantasy terms, so lock and load. And Seattle is finally using Jimmy Graham like we all expected last year. He’s a top 5 TE now until proven otherwise, a must start. Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett are anything but. Baldwin is about at last year’s yardage pace but without the insane TD splits so, you know, regression to the mean. He’s a low end WR2 at best. Lockett isn’t worth keeping on your roster right now.
But Atlanta players sure are. Holy cow Matt Ryan, who would probably be MVP if the season ended today. He had 3 TDs in this one, all in one quarter, and he’s still on fire. He’s an absolute must start and, with guys like Rodgers and Wilson struggling and Big Ben and Newton dealing with injuries, he looks like a top 5 fantasy QB now. But still, the sell tag should be there. He’s on pace for 5500/40 right now — that simply won’t last. I was wrong on the Falcons, whose offense appears to be very real, but they all remain in the sell list, just not a panic sell. Just know that there’s no historic reason to expect this production to last. I’m still there on Julio Jones too, though this was a surprise against a top secondary. And you’re going to get these games from both Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. The former is a RB2 and Coleman is a high upside flex that will swing and miss sometimes. I was wrong on Atlanta but I’m still looking to sell them all… maybe after they play the Chargers this week though.
Dallas 30, Green Bay 16
Another monster game for Ezekiel Elliott, who is having a rookie year unlike any in history. That’s good news if you’re an owner but should also give you a little pause too — it’s never good to count on historic production. The ginormous workload continued, with 30 more touches. Make sure Alfred Morris is owned in your league after the bye — just sayin’. I’m not sold yet on the Cole Beasley experience, though he’s flex-worthy through the bye weeks. It looks like you can start to consider Dak Prescott at QB after four straight games with 2 or more TDs, and that should only increase once Dez Bryant returns. Oh by the way, this is a great time to offer for Dez during the bye week. Be careful, as he may never be fully healthy this year, so think of him as a high upside WR2.
Aaron Rodgers and the entire Green Bay offense still continue to struggle. Rodgers had his best yardage output of the year but has yet to hit 300. The schedule gets much softer over the next month so maybe things will finally come together. I’m still starting him over most QBs, and I’d still trade most QBs for him — but beware that with Seattle and Minnesota in weeks 14 and 16, you may not want him in your fantasy playoffs. It looks like Randall Cobb is finally paying off value, but I’m still looking to sell. It’s just so many short passes and I’m not convinced the volume stays there to make him even a good WR2. You can pick up Ty Montgomery after his big day, but he looks like Cobb II with a ton of short looks. He seems more like someone that will cannibalize Cobb’s value than add his own, barring an injury. Speaking of cannibalize, the Eddie Lacy experience continues to suck as always. He has yet to find the endzone or have more than one catch a year. He’s done so poorly now that he actually might be a buy low with an easy three weeks coming up, with a chance to flip him soon after. He’s never going to be a yardage or receptions monster but there’s a 2 or 3 TD game coming soon.
Houston 26, Indianapolis 23
Hey look, it’s Lamar Miller! There’s a reason he was on every buy low list including this one — 180 yards and 2 TDs will make you feel better in a hurry. If you didn’t buy already, the window is now closed. If you didn’t sell Will Fuller yet, the injury might have kept the window cracked but you best act soon. It’s become clear that Brock Osweiler is a very poor QB so that makes the whole air attack suspect. DeAndre Hopkins saw 15 targets with Fuller out but he looks more like a nice WR2 than a top WR1. Houston’s schedule is crazy easy the rest of the way… after Denver this week. That means you are about to have one more buy low window to go after Miller and Hopkins, two guys who have really disappointed owners but guys you’ll want to own down the stretch.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but I’m still really worried about Andrew Luck. Indianapolis is terrible, and now if he gets that injury that seems to be coming, they could shut him down. He’s a must start and a QB1 but I’d still probably rather have guys like Newton, Rodgers, Big Ben, etc who have question marks right now but who I feel better about long term. Another perfectly boring RB2 week for Frank Gore is just fine with me. There’s no need to worry about TY Hilton. The targets were there and he’s locked in as a top 10 WR as long as Luck stays healthy. If anything, this might be a chance to buy slightly low on a guy your opponent may not be totally sold on yet.
Arizona 28, NY Jets 3
David Johnson is a stud — what else is there to say? Do what you have to and get him. The Cards WRs have really faded this season with Palmer’s struggles. Palmer was back tonight but still isn’t a weekly start or even a must own. Larry Fitzgerald is still clearly the guy but it looks like his value is on the way down, so there’s still time to sell while he ranks high. This is a running team now and it’s hard to see him playing like a top 10 WR going forward. John Brown is the other receiver to own but be careful as he was nearly invisible until one late drive. And you can cut Michael Floyd now despite the TD. He had only 2 targets and is barely even seeing the field. Arizona plays Seattle next week in a game they absolutely have to win if they want to have any shot at this division — we’ll know a lot more about them after that one.
The Jets are a wreck. They have scored just 2 offensive TDs in the last 4 games now and it’s gotten pretty ugly. Do you really think it gets better if Geno takes over? A long catch saved Brandon Marshall a bit, but Matt Forte was miserable. Both are in the buy low zone with the schedule opening up soon, but do so with tempered expectations.
Minnesota, Tampa Bay on bye
If anyone cut Minnesota’s defense during the bye, they should be your top waiver priority. No exaggeration — they’ve been a top 10 fantasy play so far at any position. I love trading for guys coming off byes, and this week the targets are Doug Martin, Stefon Diggs, and Mike Evans. Evans won’t be cheap but Martin and Diggs are both way undervalued right now after early injuries. Tampa has had a brutal schedule so far but has a cakewalk the rest of the way, so Martin could be a top 10 RB and Jameis Winston should now be owned going forward too. Remember, Tampa plays the Saints twice during the fantasy playoffs. Diggs is Minnesota’s best fantasy option and should be a top 20 WR going forward now that he’s rested a month.
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