Week 9 fantasy football buy or sell — 32 seconds for 32 teams

Using the numbers behind the numbers to predict future fantasy success — is it time to sell high or buy low?

We are officially halfway through the NFL regular season, and we are almost two-thirds of the way through your fantasy season. At this point your team should pretty clearly fall into one of three categories.

If you’re 6–2 or better, you are a playoff team. Every move you make from here forward should be with an eye toward the playoff weeks. And that means securing a bye if it’s available too. Fantasy football is incredibly random. Not having to play a game is worth anything you have to do.

If you’re 2–6 or worse, you’re probably not reading these still, but if you are, good for you. It’s time to trade for underperforming or injured stars if you’re in dynasty. If you’re in a redraft league, trade for high variance players and go for broke — why not?

And if you have 3 to 5 wins, you’re fighting for every win in the playoff hunt. Week 9 is key with so many big bye weeks, so make the right waiver pick-ups and keep churning the trades with your deadline probably only weeks away …

Tennessee 36, Jacksonville 22

It’s possible that the time may have finally come to sell DeMarco Murray. Luckily his injury this game doesn’t look too serious, but it feels like more of what’s to come with his history of injuries and the huge work load he’s carried this year. Murray’s at 160 carries through week 8 and 217 is his career high outside of the one massive Dallas season. The Titans schedule over the next month is still pretty solid but then the weeks 13–15 stretch is brutal with a bye and DEN-KC right as your playoffs hit. Murray should net you top dollar, and it might be time to move. It’s also time to make certain Derrick Henry is owned in your league, if he’s not already. He’s at least a good RB2 if Murray misses injury time especially in this upcoming soft stretch, and he even caught 4 balls this week and scored his first TD. Don’t get too excited about the Titans passing game. Delanie Walker is a weekly start but Mariota, Wright, and Matthews all look like decent spot start options but that’s it.

The time has finally come to sell DeMarco Murray…

What do we even do with the Jaguars at this point? Remember, the Titans were up 27–0 at the half. The Jags fired their offensive coordinator so that likely means more running game going forward — hard to run less when the most carries anyone had in this game was four somehow. I might pick up TJ Yeldon and see what happens the next week or two, but know that the Jags schedule is pretty rough going forward. Sell hard on Blake Bortles after a faux big game. You don’t want to be counting on him. Buy on Allen Robinson, I guess, because the targets are still so high that he still feels like a top 15 option going forward and a great dynasty stash.

Washington 27, Cincinnati 27

I’m not too sure how Washington didn’t win this game, but whatever, you’re welcome London. The Redskins still have a winning record but the schedule gets tough after the bye and it’s time to sell where you can. Kirk Cousins had a monster yardage game and now has 2+ TDs in five of the last six games. He’s a good lower end QB1, fairly safe, but lacks upside. Jordan Reed was back and looked great. I’m not bothered on him by the schedule but one more big hit and he may miss another month, so I’m leery. Rob Kelley ran really well with Jones out but I wouldn’t call either of them must-own with a bye and GB-MIN on tap. Both are sells. I’ve said all season Jamison Crowder was the WR I’d own if any. He’s at peak value but probably won’t sell for much. Cousins and Crowder are the sort of guys I’d love to have as a backup QB and WR but not ones I’d want to lean on every week.

Welcome back Tyler Eifert! He’s the top waiver pick-up of the week if he’s available. He had a monster game and looks healthy and like Gronk-lite again. Cincinnati has really missed him and I think he’s a top 3 TE going forward. The bye week might present an opportunity to buy from an owner trying to sneakily sell high. AJ Green is a stud, and Eifert’s return honestly should help him. Not much to say on Hill or Bernard. Both are spot starts, though there’s a bit of hope for Hill if he can heal during the bye.

Kansas City 30, Indianapolis 14

The Chiefs are quietly 5–2 with another dominant performance, even if it didn’t do much for fantasy football. It was a really disappointing day for Spencer Ware who left with injury. That gives you a great chance to buy low on a guy with high upside. Charcandrick West should probably be picked up but don’t get your hopes up on him, especially with Jamaal Charles still around. The Chiefs care more about winning than stats. Maclin and Kelce are usable plays but expect KC to just keep grinding out wins.

The Colts are terrible, and TY Hilton’s early exit to injury didn’t help. Andrew Luck keeps doing his thing. He remains tenuous, a hit (or continued injury to Hilton) away from crushed value. I still don’t feel super comfortable relying on him, well as he’s playing. Donte Moncrief is back and was a big target right away, so he’s a top waiver pickup if he was dropped. He could be a borderline WR1 for a bit if Hilton misses any time. And it might finally be time to cash in your Frank Gore stock. He’s a top ten RB right now but more like his usual mid-RB2 in reality, just helped by no injury time or bye week yet. His schedule gets tough and borderline unusable in the playoffs.

Oakland 30, Tampa Bay 24

Holy Derek Carr, Batman! So much for not having enough passing yards I guess. Carr had a monster 513-yard 4-TD performance and has quickly become one of my favorite QBs to watch in the league. He’s genuinely really good, maybe a top 10 quarterback already, and that validates Oakland’s other guys even if it still leaves him a low end fantasy QB1. I told you to go get Amari Cooper a few weeks ago and now he’s had almost 500 yards the last four weeks. The yardage won’t stay so high but the TDs should still come — Amari is a stud and here to stay. And Michael Crabtree ain’t too shabby either. He tied season highs for receptions and yards and is an every week WR2 himself, though he remains a slight sell high.

This was a disappointing fantasy game for Jameis Winston owners, but he’s still averaging over 2 TDs a week and has a juicy upcoming schedule so he’s very usable through byes and injuries at least. Mike Evans remains a stud with 12+ targets a week. He’s been really consistent and could challenge for the top overall WR spot if he keeps this up. Keep playing Jacquizz Rodgers as long as Martin is out, but the window remains open for a huge buy low target on Doug Martin. His schedule is so juicy down the stretch, so go get him while you can. Tampa plays Thursday so he’s likely out again but should be back after that.

New Orleans 25, Seattle 20

Well that was brutal for Mark Ingram owners who probably had to play him even in a tough matchup and likely got negative points while seeing Tim Hightower break a hundred yards and get about 17 goal line carries. The Saints are now saying they’ll ride the hot hand going forward, and with a matchup against the 49ers this week, both are worth starting. This is the time to strike on Ingram owners. He’s simply better than Hightower and this week should be an anomaly. He could be a top ten RB down the stretch still. Brandin Cooks continues to put up faux WR1 numbers. He’s got 5 TDs now and will probably have a couple more huge games but I’d much rather sell for a steadier player. Michael Thomas still looks like the real top Saints target.

This is the time to strike on Mark Ingram owners…

Russell Wilson just is not right, and it’s sad to watch as a football fan. He is without a TD in three straight games somehow. Honestly — and this is serious — you can cut him if you need to. You certainly don’t need to and shouldn’t start him each week. Wow. He’s not running at all either. With his poor health and the terrible offensive line, the entire Seahawks team is in trouble. Jimmy Graham is still a good fantasy TE but Doug Baldwin has been relegated to spot start status. Christine Michael has 6 TDs in 5 games so that’s saving the value for a guy not getting many yards. He’s a RB2 but there’s some reason for concern with the O-line struggles and a looming Thomas Rawls return. I’m not sure you can really sell too high so you might just need to cross your fingers and take what you can get.

Houston 20, Detroit 13

The Texans are looking good for the playoffs at 5–3 but they’re not helping you a ton toward yours. Rookie sensation Will Fuller hasn’t even been playable four of the last five weeks and is a sell or drop if needed. DeAndre Hopkins is too good to stay down for too long but it might not happen with Osweiler and too many other targets. He gets the Allen Robinson treatment right now — his talent and targets make him a buy low, and his schedule coming up is great. So is Lamar Miller’s and the injury and incoming bye week give him a second great buy low window. He is getting TDs again and looks like a great option down the stretch if you can snag him.

There’s a second great buy low window on Lamar Miller…

It looks like the Marvin Jones honeymoon is over. He’s been out targeted by Golden Tate in three straight, and the two are hurting each other’s value. Both are WR3 status now but each with WR1 upside any given week, so that’s not terrible. Theo Riddick was a nice buy low but is back and still looks a very reliable PPR RB when healthy. The bad news for Detroit is the next four weeks include a bye and two games against Minnesota, so if you’re pushing for a playoff spot, it’ll be tough to rely on Stafford et al — but it gets better in the playoffs if you get there.

NY Jets 31, Cleveland 28

So this Quincy Enunwa thing is apparently real. He’s the clear WR2 there and is now a WR2 or 3 in fantasy as well, stepping right into the Decker role. Brandon Marshall isn’t seeing quite the usual volume but is still very involved especially in the redzone so he remains a buy low. Fitzpatrick is playing so poorly that even if he’s benched again, it can’t hurt much. Matt Forte is back with two monster weeks again… what? Maybe there was an injury in there but given the lack of good fantasy RB options, I think I’d just keep and play him.

Cleveland better hope the Indians win the World Series because the Browns may well go winless. Terrelle Pryor had another big week though he’s lost his added flex value now with no rushes or passes this week. Still he is a definite starter every week, and McCown’s return should help, plus he’s still at 9+ targets a week. I am still selling Isaiah Crowell at 15 poor touches a week; he’s TD or bust and nowhere near his top 15 RB rank in value.

New England 41, Buffalo 25

Tom Brady is an absolute monster. He’s averaging 330 yards and 3 TDs a game right now. That’s technically a peak value but there’s no way I’m selling him for anything. Weirdly enough, the rest of the team remains unreliable outside of Gronk. Julian Edelman was under 40 yards for the 5th time in 6 games but did finally score a TD. I couldn’t help myself from starting him in this offense but he’s a WR3 on a good day right now. I would still buy him for a moderate price but you probably need a Gronk injury for it to pay off. The James White hype is dead, especially with Dion Lewis practicing and back soon — and yes you should think about adding him off waivers ASAP if you have the room amidst all the byes. LeGarrette Blount has 9 TDs already but that’s his value, plus garbage time yardage in some games. This year that might be a weekly RB2 but he still reads like a sell high if someone values him at his point total.

If you’re sitting pretty for the playoffs or have a roster spot to burn, now is the time to go get Sammy Watkins…

Mike Gillislee was surprisingly effective replacing McCoy. Buffalo has a bye in two weeks so Gillislee probably gets one more start while McCoy heals — but it’s Monday night in Seattle. With all the bye weeks, you may have to start him. Stay away from anything else in Buffalo. If you’re sitting pretty for the playoffs or have a roster spot to burn, now is the time to go get Sammy Watkins. He is about a month out now and has a killer playoff schedule so he could be a huge get. I wouldn’t bother picking up Percy Harvin, though his signing might give you a bit of pause about Watkins.

Carolina 30, Arizona 20

I’ve been trying to buy Panthers all season and I’m not stopping now. This team can absolutely still make a playoff run and its stars can still help you. I am buying big on Cam Newton who was running again and looks healthy, and it was just a couple rare Jonathan Stewart TD vultures that took his value. I would sell hard on Stewart after two straight 2 TD games. There are very few QBs I’d prefer to Cam. It was also an off day for Greg Olsen, another guy I’d love to buy low. I’m still in on Kelvin Benjamin as well, still getting enough targets and YPC to go with the TDs that are sure to return. It’s tough because another Newton concussion dooms the offense but Newton, Olsen, and Benjamin are the sort of guys that can win you the league.

Newton, Olsen, and Benjamin are the sort of guys that can win you the league…

David Johnson is too, in case you forgot. What a stud. I’ve been advising you to sell Larry Fitzgerald but in this Arizona offense that doesn’t seem to have a deep game, he is going to keep racking up targets. He’s a fantasy WR2, a steady low upside type, and that’s ok. Michael Floyd is a drop heading into the bye. JJ Nelson is probably worth a roster spot but it’s tough with their bye coming up so he’s not my top priority and I’ll need to see more before I play him.

Denver 27, San Diego 19

Denver is 6–2 now behind its terrific defense, but the offense is about as mediocre as last year’s. Hot pickup Devontae Booker nearly was a huge flop after an early injury but returned and had a nice game. He has a shot to be this year’s David Johnson and is worth buying if you can get him, a possible top ten RB the rest of the way. Trevor Siemian has thrown more than one TD only once in his life, so that limits both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Both are steady low upside options, WR3s preferably. Thomas still has name value and early TDs that may wane so he’s a sell high.

It was a weird day for Melvin Gordon who didn’t score a TD for once but also finally had good yardage. I don’t know if he’s that good, but he’s a fantasy stud and you should probably just ride the wave even if the production wanes the second half. No Charger had a good receiving game despite 47 passes from Rivers, but that’s expected against Denver. Antonio Gates is back to weekly start TE1 status and Tyrell Williams should start most weeks.

Dallas 29, Philadelphia 23

Dez Bryant was back with a vengeance and we’ll need to treat him like a top ten WR until proven otherwise. With only four receptions, there might still be a window to buy somewhat low, but his 14 targets and redzone TD show his value and he’s going to be open the way this team is running the ball. I was worried about Ezekiel Elliott’s value dropping a bit but he was over 150 yards combined again and got involved in the pass game too, a good sign. And it was another good fantasy game for Dak Prescott, a definite start this week against the Browns and maybe a top ten option going forward especially with the sneaky 4 rushing TDs he adds. Jason Witten is a great spot start this week against a Browns defense that’s terrible against TEs.

It looks like the Eagles aren’t nearly as good as they looked after two season-opening wins against Cleveland and Chicago. Imagine that. Jordan Matthews finally had another big game and is still at least a WR3, but there’s not much else here that you can rely on in fantasy. No, I don’t know why Darren Sproles suddenly played 80% of the game either. Every one of the nine remaining Eagles games is against a playoff contender. The Eagles probably won’t be, soon.

Atlanta 33, Green Bay 32

The Falcons may have saved their playoffs lives in this one with a late TD to steal it. Devonta Freeman had a big 2 TD game against a tough run D with Coleman out, and Matt Ryan was fantastic again. You’re going to see a lot of Tom Brady MVP talk this week but he might be my pick right now. Mohamed Sanu was a nice spot start against a terrible secondary but he’s waiver wire material. It’s a short week so probably another one without Coleman; that could mean another good game for Freeman and a false sell-high window.

I told you last week to go get Aaron Rodgers and you missed your window if you waited after 4 TDs. The yardage is still lower but he’s back. It was a second straight huge game for Davonte Adams but he’s a clear sell high with both Cobb and Montgomery returning next week. Randall Cobb becomes a buy low off the injury, the way he’s looked the past month. The Packers have figured things out and even at 4–3 it’s pretty smooth sailing going forward so that should mean plenty of passing numbers with all the RBs hurt. No RB in Green Bay looks worth owning right now.

Chicago 20, Minnesota 10

Everything’s coming up Chicago. And hey there, Jordan Howard. Shoot, guess last week was a buy low window instead of a get-terrified window. Now 200 yards and a TD against one of the best defenses in the league, and just 3 combined touches by Carey and Langford, and the picture is pretty clear. The Bears schedule is pretty light going forward so Howard should be at least a good RB2 and a weekly start. And oh hi Alshon Jeffery in the endzone for the first time all year. He’s still only at 4.5 receptions a week but the targets are hope and there’s some hope there especially with Cutler back at QB, clearly preferring him over Cam Meredith, who is droppable through the bye.

The Vikings are in rough shape offensively, but don’t let that stop you from targeting Stefon Diggs in trades. He was the intended receiver on over 60% of Sam Bradford’s throws Monday night and barely missed a long TD early, still finishing with 8/76/1 in garbage time. He’s averaging 8/120 in three healthy weeks and looks like a possible WR2 down the stretch, but know that there will be some misses with this bad offense. Kyle Rudolph and Jerrick McKinnon are worth hanging onto, and definitely Minnesota D too. The Vikings have a very easy schedule and should still coast to the playoffs.

Baltimore, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Miami, NY Giants, Pittsburgh

There were a lot of teams on bye, but not a ton of fantasy value. This coming week is the really brutal one. Check back last week to see what to do here.

Go get Jay Ajayi if you can, even for a moderately high price. Go get those valuable Steelers too, at any price. Big Ben will be back soon. Terrance West looks like a reliable RB2, and Carlos Hyde could be a buy low after a quiet week and a bye. Jarvis Landry is a good buy low, and Steve Smith is a name to grab off waivers and play with confidence if healthy.

If you enjoyed this, please recommend it by clicking the ❤ so others can enjoy it too. Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, humor, pop culture, and life musings. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.