Summary

The Federal Government has declared the first-ever water shortage on the Colorado River, with Lake Mead dropping to its lowest level since the 1930s, triggering mandatory water cuts.

Abstract

The U.S. government has officially recognized a water shortage in the Colorado River basin, a historic event marked by Lake Mead's water level falling below 1,075 feet above sea level. At 35% capacity, the reservoir is at its lowest since its creation, initiating the first tier of water reductions. The rules governing these cuts originate from the 1922 Colorado River Compact, which did not anticipate shortages. The situation is particularly dire for Arizona, which will experience an 18% reduction in water supply, significantly impacting agriculture, as 70% of the state's Colorado River water is used for farming. The current megadrought, ongoing for two decades, has led to complex negotiations and agreements among Nevada, Arizona, and California, which will need to be revisited in 2026. The article underscores the unpredictability of weather patterns, the impact of climate change, and the urgent need for sustainable water management as the West faces extreme drought conditions.

Opinions

The author suggests that the water rights allocated on paper exceed the actual water available in the Colorado River.
Arizona is portrayed as having received a less favorable water allocation compared to California, especially after the lengthy Supreme Court case (Arizona v. California, 1952–1963).
The article implies that human-induced climate change is a significant factor contributing to the water crisis in the West.
There is an underlying tone of frustration and concern regarding the unpredictability of weather patterns, despite scientific and benchmark efforts to manage the water crisis.
The author hints at potential future conflicts and difficult decisions ahead, as water scarcity increases and the situation may worsen, affecting power generation at Lake Mead and necessitating further upstream water releases.
The article conveys a sense of envy towards other regions of the U.S. that are experiencing flooding and excess rain, contrasting with the extreme drought in the West.
It is suggested that water will become a more precious and expensive commodity, with potential significant increases in food prices due to the Colorado River reaching its limit for water supply.

Water Crisis In The West, v5.0 — The Colorado River Story

It’s happening faster than I can write about it

Lake Mead as taken from Hoover Dam. Photo by Ricardo Frantz on https://unsplash.com/.

Well, folks, it happened, but it comes as no surprise.

The Federal Government has officially declared a water shortage on the Colorado River for the first time in history.

Lake Mead has fallen below a major threshold: 1,075 feet above sea level. At just 35% full, it is at its lowest point since it was filled in the 1930s. This is the first tier at which water cuts begin.

Who takes the first hit? Well, it’s a bit convoluted.

Many of the rules from the Colorado River Compact of 1922 still apply. No one ever thought of shortages in 1922! The River was flush with water after several exceptionally wet years. Seven states were involved in the Compact, and all would ratify it — except one.

By the 1940s, Arizona was growing exponentially. They realized they would need to build a reclamation project from the Colorado to feed its growing population and agribusiness. But first, they would need to ratify the Compact, which they finally did in 1944. After that, Arizona began to envision a canal.

Since Arizona and California couldn’t agree on how much of the Colorado each state would get, Arizona took the case to the Supreme Court, which lasted 11 years (Arizona v. California, 1952–1963). The decision determined the basic apportionment Nevada, California, and Arizona would receive annually.

There are more water rights on paper than there is water in the river. ~Robert Glennon, marketwatch.com

California fought hard against the Central Arizona Project, or CAP, which was to be federally funded. Finally, Arizona capitulated that California would get its full apportionment of water in the event of shortages. California thus withdrew its opposition to the CAP, and construction began in 1973.

Arizona got the short end of the stick.

Their cut will be 18% as of January 1. Since 70% of Colorado River water is used for agriculture in Arizona, that is the sector to be hardest hit. Production of cotton, their biggest cash crop, will decrease, and farm fields will become fallow. Some farmers may sell out to developers who, in turn, will drill ever deeper for dwindling groundwater reserves. Or maybe the land will be used as solar fields.

The Central Arizona Project (CAP) watering farm fields. Photo by Frankie Lopez on Unsplash.

The current Megadrought the Colorado River Basin is facing began about 20 years ago. By 2007 an amendment to the Compact was drawn up among the Lower Basin states of Nevada, Arizona, and California.

The agreement stipulated how much water each state would reduce its usage, depending on the elevation of Lake Mead. These guidelines will expire in 2026, at which time it’s back to the drawing board.

Still with me?

As simple as I’m trying to make it, it’s extremely complicated. We’re working with science and with benchmarks, but Mother Nature has a way of tricking us.

One thing is for sure: man is largely responsible for climate change. What we still don’t know is what the weather is going to be like tomorrow. For instance, there was a 2 in 3 chance that it would rain in Albuquerque today. Didn’t happen.

Last spring, it was predicted that this was going to be a weak monsoon season. Have you seen the pictures of the flooding that just happened in Phoenix and Flagstaff? Tucson has had 11.86 inches of rain this year, most of it being monsoonal. Their yearly average? 12.17 inches, with monsoon running until September 30. Last year they received only 4.17 inches.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/Permission.aspx The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC. ©2021 — National Drought Mitigation Center

So Lake Mead is now at 1,068 feet, and Tier 1 reductions go into effect on January 1, 2022. Further cuts will be mandated at various thresholds: 1,050, 1,045, and 1,025 feet. California is not expected to take a hit until 2023. Unless the situation gets worse. If Lake Mead should fall below 950 feet, it will no longer be able to generate power.

That‘ll be the night when the lights go out in Vegas.

Further upstream, The Colorado River Compact requires that Lake Powell release 8.23 million acre-feet of water annually, sending water to Lake Mead. But Lake Powell is so low that the Upper Colorado Basin states will have to release more of their water to Lake Powell to make up for the shortfall, again putting pressure on farmers. This includes Flaming Gorge Reservoir in Utah, Blue Mesa Reservoir in Colorado, and Navajo Reservoir in New Mexico.

The South and East are being pounded by flooding and rain, just what they don’t need, but we’re envious of the water. Two-thirds of the West is in extreme or exceptional drought, the most since the U.S. Drought Monitor began 20 years ago. Seven states are entirely in drought. South Dakota has recently begun a project to divert some Missouri River water to North Dakota.

In the end, people will conserve even more than they have because water will become a precious commodity. It will become costly. Food prices could skyrocket under the current scenario. The Colorado River is at its breaking point.

Go East, Young Man.

Sources for this story include CNN, Associated Press, MarketWatch.com-The Conversation, Bloomberg-Green + City Lab, WaterEducation.org, and the Bureau of Reclamation.

Read the whole series!