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Abstract

oints will be hard to come by. Michigan will look for easy points on turnovers, but Texas A&M has a big size advantage and could dominate the boards like they did against a great rebounding North Carolina team. Every rebound is another possession, and in a close game like this, that could be the difference.</p><div id="c48f" class="link-block"> <a href="https://readmedium.com/use-march-madness-history-to-pick-the-perfect-2018-bracket-college-basketball-ncaa-duke-unc-villanova-24d4b5c2ae86"> <div> <div> <h2>How to Use March Madness History to Pick the Perfect 2018 Bracket</h2> <div><h3>What can the ghosts of March Madness past teach us about this year’s tournament?</h3></div> <div><p></p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*82UpjtajzfGMId09HVxx-A.jpeg)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><h2 id="fb6b">Villanova -5 vs West Virginia</h2><p id="be63">The 1 vs 5 seed matchup is common enough, but you may not know that 1 seeds are a dominant 36–7 in the modern tournament in such Sweet Sixteen matchups. That’s an 84% win rate, about the same as a 3 vs 14 first round game. West Virginia builds their entire game plan around mucking it up and forcing turnovers, and Villanova is a veteran team with likely National Player of the Year Jalen Brunson running point.</p><p id="81a0">The Mountaineers’ defense hasn’t been as tough this year, allowing too easy a shot selection, and Nova’s offense is built to exploit that. West Virginia went 0–3 this season against Kansas, another well coached veteran team with an outstanding upperclassman point guard. Eleven of Villanova’s last 12 wins have been by double-digits, so unless you think the Mountaineers win this outright, this looks like the best bet of the round.</p><h2 id="24c3">Purdue vs Texas Tech OVER 137.5</h2><p id="8fd4">These are two of the slowest teams left in the tournament. Both play stout defenses, and both have a key star player banged up. You can see why Vegas went with such a low line here. But this is super low. Vegas is expecting a 69.5–68 win for Purdue here. Even at their usual slower paces over their last eight games, Purdue has scored at least 74 points seven times and Tech has hit at least 69 seven times. This game should be close, so as long as both teams hit 65+, the over looks pretty good and is the best play in a toss-up game.</p><h2 id="5f5c">Kansas vs Clemson UNDER 142.5</h2><p id="c571">Vegas is projecting a 74–69 win for Kansas here in a game Clemson will surely try to slow down, play their signature defense, and hope to keep close late. The Tigers have held eight of their last nine opponents to 68 points or fewer. Kansas has held opponents to 72 or fewer in seven of their last eight. They typically score in the 75 to 80 range but may need to in order to hit the over, and clean shots will be hard to come by in this game.</p><h2 id="f067">Syracuse +600 outright vs Duke</h2><p id="6ff9">On paper, this is a huge mismatch. Duke is more talented at every position and was the preseason #1, they’re the only team left in the field with a top 10 KenPom offense and defense, and they have the size and rebounding edge to dominate the Syracuse zone. They also run the zone themselves, so they practice against it every day, and they already throttled the Orange 60–44 earlier this season.</p><p id="e930">But Jim Boeheim is 4–5 against Mike Krzyzewski, all but a couple of those games pitting unranked Syracuse against top-25 Duke. Duke lost four times this season as a top-5 team against an unranked opponent (Boston College, NC State, St. John’s, and Virginia Tech, who went 28–40 combined in-conference). Duke’s 2–3 zone is not as tight at Syracuse’s, and the zone is built to frustrate teams that aren’t mentally tough. The longer the game stays close, the more Duke’s freshmen will feel pressure and force things. Duke should roll, but don’t count out the Orange if this stays close. The Blue Devils haven’t made the Final Four as a 2 seed or lower since 1994. Once Duke became DUKE, this team is typically a 1 seed or just not consistentl

Options

y good enough.</p><div id="08ab" class="link-block"> <a href="https://readmedium.com/25-biggest-upsets-march-madness-history-umbc-retrievers-maryland-baltimore-county-virginia-6fff3d9b64e2"> <div> <div> <h2>The 25 Biggest Upsets in March Madness History</h2> <div><h3>UMBC knocked off Virginia to become the first 16 seed winner in history. So where does it rank among the all time…</h3></div> <div><p></p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*ivIiHLeqgRYr4v5bJ7CJcg.jpeg)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><h1 id="8354">REST OF TOURNAMENT BETS</h1><h2 id="ea1d">Kentucky to make the Final Four 10/11</h2><p id="aac0">Kentucky has the third best Final Four odds behind Villanova and Duke, but they have the far easier path. As above, Calipari is 18–0 as a 2+ seed favorite and will have such an advantage in any South matchup, and Kentucky will have a serious rebounding and athleticism advantage over all three possible opponents. Kentucky is the most likely Final Four team with their easy path and should probably be closer to something like 1/2 odds here. At nearly even odds, they’re an outstanding value.</p><h2 id="8d82">Purdue 17/4 or Texas Tech 7/1 to make the Final Four</h2><p id="0a1d">This is essentially a bet against Villanova in the Elite Eight. Both Purdue and Texas Tech slow it down and play defense and are the sort of stylistic matchup that has given Villanova problems in recent years. When Nova can’t score freely against a team like common conference opponent Butler, sometimes the shots go cold at the wrong time and dry up. Purdue is the third best team left in the tournament by KenPom’s metrics but has worse Final Four odds than Nevada and Texas A&M. Tech is given the third worst odds in the field. If you’re thinking of betting the Purdue-Tech game and feel you have a good read on that game’s winner, consider doubling down on a second in instead with odds heavily in your favor.</p><h2 id="8ff5">Syracuse to make the Final Four 18/1</h2><p id="e8e5">Want to get wild? If you read everything in the Duke section above and talked yourself into that upset, why not go one step further? Bill Self is 1–6 as an Elite Eight favorite, and Syracuse already beat a ranked Clemson team earlier this year. Syracuse has the perfect giant killer formula: slow the game down to a snail’s pace, play outstanding defense, and hope to steal a close game late. The fewer the possessions, the better the underdog’s chances to keep it close and hit a big shot or two late. Syracuse is the longest shot in the field, but Jim Boeheim has done it before (twice in the last five years!) and they’ll ugly it up and give themselves a chance.</p><h2 id="e57a">Kentucky to win the National Championship 8/1</h2><p id="7e5c">Kentucky is not the best team in the bracket, but this is all about path. They have the easiest path to the Final Four of any blue blood, and they’d probably be a Vegas favorite against any West opponent when they get there. A title game matchup against Villanova, Duke, or Kansas would leave UK the underdog, but Calipari has proven time and again that seeding doesn’t matter for his Wildcats once it gets to March. His youngest team ever has come together over the past few weeks, and they’re one of four teams left in the bracket with a top 25 KenPom offense and defense. Freshman Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could lead this team to glory. And if there’s another big upset or two on the right half of the bracket, Kentucky could be a favorite every game along the way. Their path and talent should never leave them as the fifth favorite at this point.</p><p id="1142"><i>Follow Brandon on Medium or <a href="https://twitter.com/wheatonbrando">@wheatonbrando</a> for more sports, humor, TV, pop culture, and life musings. Visit the rest of Brandon’s <a href="https://readmedium.com/brandon-anderson-writing-archives-6b3ee1a29301#.6cteu050v">writing archives here</a>.</i> <i>Thanks to the <a href="undefined">Washington Post</a> and <a href="https://kenpom.com/">KenPom</a> for their databases.</i></p></article></body>

March Madness 2018 Best Bets — Sweet Sixteen and Beyond

Kentucky as a favorite and Syracuse as Cinderella again?

March Madness is back, and we’re down to the Sweet Sixteen. Upsets reigned on opening weekend, and many of the tournament’s top teams are already out. So which Cinderella teams will keep on dancing, and what blue bloods are ready to step forward as the real favorites?

We went 10–10 in the opening round but came out ahead financially, thanks to Loyola, Syracuse, and Nevada upset picks with odds in our favor. The tournament-long prop bets are just 2–6 right now, but we’re still holding onto a Kentucky 8–1 Final Four ticket that looks pretty good, plus a 25–1 UK national champions ticket we’re starting to get excited about.

So what’s on the docket for the Sweet Sixteen? Be sure to look at what history can teach us about this weekend’s games, and then let’s make some money…

Build the Perfect Second Chance Bracket

History predicted Virginia’s downfall. What can it tell us about the Sweet Sixteen and beyond?

SWEET SIXTEEN GAMES

Kentucky -5.5 vs Kansas State

John Calipari is 18–0 at Kentucky with at least a 2 seed advantage, and this is a 5 vs 9 so that’s heavily in his favor. Kansas State has looked worse than any team in the field and only got here because they outlasted UMBC in an ugly game that was literally first to 50. K State also fouls and lot and struggles on the defensive glass, two areas Kentucky ranks top ten in the nation, and UK will likely be playing in front of a heavy Big Blue crowd in Atlanta.

Loyola-Chicago +115 outright vs Nevada

Historically, 11 seeds are 5–1 in the Sweet Sixteen when they don’t have to play the expected 2 seed. That’s great news for Sister Jean and Loyola. The Ramblers have the defense to match Nevada and shouldn’t be overwhelmed with any athletic difference here, and they’ll likely have a rebounding advantage. This game should be close late, and Loyola is every bit as good as Nevada and has already proven they can win the close ones.

Gonzaga -5.5 vs Florida State

Gonzaga may be the second most balanced team remaining in the tournament. They’re the only team other than Duke with both a top 15 offense and defense on KenPom, with numbers adjusted for competition. Mark Few is 2–0 as a Sweet Sixteen favorite while FSU’s Leonard Hamilton is 0–2 lifetime without an Elite Eight appearance in three decades as a coach.

Florida State struggles to score at times and relies on offensive rebounds for easy second chance points, and the Zags are built to keep the Seminoles off the glass. Without easy points, it’s hard to see Florida State keeping up unless they completely overwhelm Gonzaga with athleticism.

Texas A&M +130 outright vs Michigan

The 3 vs 7 seed matchup looks to favor Michigan, but 3 seeds are just 8–6 in such Sweet Sixteen matchups, a near coin flip. This looks like the most likely Sweet Sixteen upset on paper. Both teams rank in the top ten defensively, so the game will play at a turgid pace and points will be hard to come by. Michigan will look for easy points on turnovers, but Texas A&M has a big size advantage and could dominate the boards like they did against a great rebounding North Carolina team. Every rebound is another possession, and in a close game like this, that could be the difference.

How to Use March Madness History to Pick the Perfect 2018 Bracket

What can the ghosts of March Madness past teach us about this year’s tournament?

Villanova -5 vs West Virginia

The 1 vs 5 seed matchup is common enough, but you may not know that 1 seeds are a dominant 36–7 in the modern tournament in such Sweet Sixteen matchups. That’s an 84% win rate, about the same as a 3 vs 14 first round game. West Virginia builds their entire game plan around mucking it up and forcing turnovers, and Villanova is a veteran team with likely National Player of the Year Jalen Brunson running point.

The Mountaineers’ defense hasn’t been as tough this year, allowing too easy a shot selection, and Nova’s offense is built to exploit that. West Virginia went 0–3 this season against Kansas, another well coached veteran team with an outstanding upperclassman point guard. Eleven of Villanova’s last 12 wins have been by double-digits, so unless you think the Mountaineers win this outright, this looks like the best bet of the round.

Purdue vs Texas Tech OVER 137.5

These are two of the slowest teams left in the tournament. Both play stout defenses, and both have a key star player banged up. You can see why Vegas went with such a low line here. But this is super low. Vegas is expecting a 69.5–68 win for Purdue here. Even at their usual slower paces over their last eight games, Purdue has scored at least 74 points seven times and Tech has hit at least 69 seven times. This game should be close, so as long as both teams hit 65+, the over looks pretty good and is the best play in a toss-up game.

Kansas vs Clemson UNDER 142.5

Vegas is projecting a 74–69 win for Kansas here in a game Clemson will surely try to slow down, play their signature defense, and hope to keep close late. The Tigers have held eight of their last nine opponents to 68 points or fewer. Kansas has held opponents to 72 or fewer in seven of their last eight. They typically score in the 75 to 80 range but may need to in order to hit the over, and clean shots will be hard to come by in this game.

Syracuse +600 outright vs Duke

On paper, this is a huge mismatch. Duke is more talented at every position and was the preseason #1, they’re the only team left in the field with a top 10 KenPom offense and defense, and they have the size and rebounding edge to dominate the Syracuse zone. They also run the zone themselves, so they practice against it every day, and they already throttled the Orange 60–44 earlier this season.

But Jim Boeheim is 4–5 against Mike Krzyzewski, all but a couple of those games pitting unranked Syracuse against top-25 Duke. Duke lost four times this season as a top-5 team against an unranked opponent (Boston College, NC State, St. John’s, and Virginia Tech, who went 28–40 combined in-conference). Duke’s 2–3 zone is not as tight at Syracuse’s, and the zone is built to frustrate teams that aren’t mentally tough. The longer the game stays close, the more Duke’s freshmen will feel pressure and force things. Duke should roll, but don’t count out the Orange if this stays close. The Blue Devils haven’t made the Final Four as a 2 seed or lower since 1994. Once Duke became DUKE, this team is typically a 1 seed or just not consistently good enough.

The 25 Biggest Upsets in March Madness History

UMBC knocked off Virginia to become the first 16 seed winner in history. So where does it rank among the all time…

REST OF TOURNAMENT BETS

Kentucky to make the Final Four 10/11

Kentucky has the third best Final Four odds behind Villanova and Duke, but they have the far easier path. As above, Calipari is 18–0 as a 2+ seed favorite and will have such an advantage in any South matchup, and Kentucky will have a serious rebounding and athleticism advantage over all three possible opponents. Kentucky is the most likely Final Four team with their easy path and should probably be closer to something like 1/2 odds here. At nearly even odds, they’re an outstanding value.

Purdue 17/4 or Texas Tech 7/1 to make the Final Four

This is essentially a bet against Villanova in the Elite Eight. Both Purdue and Texas Tech slow it down and play defense and are the sort of stylistic matchup that has given Villanova problems in recent years. When Nova can’t score freely against a team like common conference opponent Butler, sometimes the shots go cold at the wrong time and dry up. Purdue is the third best team left in the tournament by KenPom’s metrics but has worse Final Four odds than Nevada and Texas A&M. Tech is given the third worst odds in the field. If you’re thinking of betting the Purdue-Tech game and feel you have a good read on that game’s winner, consider doubling down on a second in instead with odds heavily in your favor.

Syracuse to make the Final Four 18/1

Want to get wild? If you read everything in the Duke section above and talked yourself into that upset, why not go one step further? Bill Self is 1–6 as an Elite Eight favorite, and Syracuse already beat a ranked Clemson team earlier this year. Syracuse has the perfect giant killer formula: slow the game down to a snail’s pace, play outstanding defense, and hope to steal a close game late. The fewer the possessions, the better the underdog’s chances to keep it close and hit a big shot or two late. Syracuse is the longest shot in the field, but Jim Boeheim has done it before (twice in the last five years!) and they’ll ugly it up and give themselves a chance.

Kentucky to win the National Championship 8/1

Kentucky is not the best team in the bracket, but this is all about path. They have the easiest path to the Final Four of any blue blood, and they’d probably be a Vegas favorite against any West opponent when they get there. A title game matchup against Villanova, Duke, or Kansas would leave UK the underdog, but Calipari has proven time and again that seeding doesn’t matter for his Wildcats once it gets to March. His youngest team ever has come together over the past few weeks, and they’re one of four teams left in the bracket with a top 25 KenPom offense and defense. Freshman Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could lead this team to glory. And if there’s another big upset or two on the right half of the bracket, Kentucky could be a favorite every game along the way. Their path and talent should never leave them as the fifth favorite at this point.

Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, humor, TV, pop culture, and life musings. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here. Thanks to the Washington Post and KenPom for their databases.